《JDE》｜施肥增长:农业投入及其对经济发展的影响

摘要：本文估计了农业投入在谷物产量提高中的作用以及对各国结构变化过程的影响。结果表明，肥料、现代种子和水在提高产量方面有明确作用。然后，我们检验了农业产量与经济增长、农业劳动份额和每个工人的非农业增加值之间各自的经验联系。识别策略包括一种新的工具变量，利用化肥生产独特的经济地理和各国农业中心地带的运输成本。我们估计，五年后，主食产量每增加半吨，人均国内生产总值就会提高14%至19%，而农业劳动占比则会降低4.6至5.6个百分点。这些结果表明，农业生产率作为结构性变化的驱动力发挥了强大的作用。

关键词：农业；化肥；结构性变化；增长；绿色革命

Abstract：This paper estimates the role of agronomic inputs in cereal yield improvements and the consequences for countries' processes of structural change. The results suggest a clear role for fertilizer, modern seeds and water in boosting yields. We then test for respective empirical links between agricultural yields and economic growth, labor share in agriculture and non-agricultural value added per worker. The identification strategy includes a novel instrumental variable that exploits the unique economic geography of fertilizer production and transport costs to countries' agricultural heartlands. We estimate that a half ton increase in staple yields generates a 14 to 19 percent higher GDP per capita and a 4.6 to 5.6 percentage point lower labor share in agriculture five years later. The results suggest a strong role for agricultural productivity as a driver of structural change.

Keywords：Agriculture；Fertilizer；Structural change；Growth；Green revolution

原文链接：

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.007

《Journal of agricultural economics》，最新影响因子为2.529，主要发表管理科学、农业经济与政策方向文章。