《AJAE》| Yu Na Lee：价格风险厌恶会推动迁移吗？来自埃塞俄比亚农村的证据

摘要：我调查了农村家庭对商品价格波动的厌恶是否会导致人口外移。采用标准农业家庭框架，对商品价格和农民工工资不确定条件下的农户迁移决策进行建模。实证结果表明，居民对价格风险的厌恶程度越高，向外迁移的可能性就越大。此外，在缺乏日常市场和粮食援助的村庄，厌恶价格风险和移徙之间的重要关系更加明显，这意味着粮食价格波动的负面福利影响可能会因市场机制不发达和当地基础设施差而放大。一系列稳健性检验和证伪检验提供了强有力的提示性证据，可以得出结论，移民是管理价格风险的一种家庭策略。这篇文章是第一批强调价格风险和移民之间联系的文章之一，补充了收入风险和移民的文献。

关键词：移民，风险，不确定性，商品价格，价格波动，埃塞俄比亚

Abstract: I investigate whether a rural household’s aversion to commodity price volatility drives out-migration. Adapting the standard agricultural household framework, I model a rural household’s migration decision making under uncertainty in commodity prices and migrant wages. Empirical results indicate that a greater household-level aversion to price risk is significantly related to a higher likelihood of outmigration. Moreover, the significant relationship between aversion to price risk and migration is more pronounced in villages that lack daily markets and food aid, implying that the negative welfare effects of food price volatility may be amplified by underdeveloped market mechanisms and poor local infrastructure. A battery of robustness checks and falsification tests provide strong suggestive evidence to conclude that migration is a household strategy to manage price risk. This article is among the first to highlight the link between price risk and migration and complements the literature on income risk and migration.

Keywords: migration, risk, uncertainty, commodity price, price volatility, Ethiopia

《AJAE》全称为《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》，最新影响因子为4.70，刊载方向为管理科学-农业经济与政策。
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