《AJAE》｜商品价格风险厌恶会驱动外迁吗？来自埃塞俄比亚的证据
摘要：本文研究农户对商品价格波动的厌恶程度是否会导致外迁。本文采用标准农户框架，构建了一个在农产品价格和农民工工资不确定性条件下的农户迁移决策模型。实证结果显示，家庭层面对价格风险的厌恶程度越高，外出迁移的可能性越高。此外，对价格风险的厌恶与移民之间的显著关系在缺乏日常市场和粮食援助的村庄更为明显，这意味着不发达的市场机制和贫穷的地方基础设施可能会放大粮食价格波动的负面福利影响。一连串的破产检查和伪造测试提供了强有力的暗示证据，证明移民是一种家庭管理价格风险的策略。这篇文章是第一批强调价格风险和移民之间联系的文章，补充了关于收入风险和移民的文献。
关键词：移民，风险，不确定性，商品价格，价格波动，埃塞俄比亚
Abstract：I investigate whether a rural household’s aversion to commodity price volatilitydrives out-migration. Adapting the standard agricultural household framework, I model a rural household’s migration decision making under uncertainty in commodity prices and migrant wages. Empirical results indicate that a greater household level aversion to price risk is significantly related to a higher likelihood of outmigration. Moreover, the significant relationship between aversion to price risk and migration is more pronounced in villages that lack daily markets and food aid, implying that the negative welfare effects of food price volatility may be amplified by underdeveloped market mechanisms and poor local infrastructure. A battery of robustness checks and falsification tests provide strong suggestive evidence to conclude that migration is a household strategy to manage price risk. This article is among the first to highlight the link between price risk and migration and complements the literature on income risk and migration.
Keyword：migration, risk, uncertainty, commodity price, price volatility, Ethiopia
《AJAE》全称为《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》，《美国农业经济学杂志》旨在为世界各地的农业和食品经济学、自然资源和环境、以及农村和社区发展等领域的创造性学术工作讨论提供平台。最新影响因子为4.082，刊载方向为管理科学-农业经济与政策。