《AE》| 作物生产成本保险的投入使用：理论与证据

摘要：以前有许多研究考察了基于产量或收入的作物保险产品对农民投入使用的影响。然而，没有研究专门调查作物生产成本保险政策的投入使用影响，尽管这种作物保险是美国以外的其他几个国家(如菲律宾和中国)使用的主要保险。本文旨在从理论和实证上检验作物生产成本保险对农民化学投入使用的影响。我们的理论模型表明，作物生产成本保险对投入使用的影响可以是积极的，也可以是消极的，其结果取决于(a)保险传统的道德风险效应(即投入使用减少效应)的强度；(b)由于投入水平是此类保险中预期赔偿金额的主要决定因素(即投入使用增加效应)，应用更多投入的边际激励。来自菲律宾玉米种植者的调查数据集随后被用于实证说明特定的作物生产成本保险如何影响现实生活中的投入使用。在这种情况下，我们发现作物生产成本保险增加了化学投入的使用(例如化肥和化学总支出)，这意味着施加更多投入的正边际激励主导了负道德风险效应。

关键词：作物生产成本保险，道德风险

Abstract：There have been a number of previous studies that examined the effects of yield- or revenue-based crop insurance products on input use of farmers. However, no study has specifically investigated the input use impacts of a cost-of-production (COP) crop insurance policy, even though this type of crop insurance is the predominant one used in several other countries outside of the United States (such as the Philippines and China). This article aims to theoretically and empirically examine the effect of a COP crop insurance product on farmers’ chemical input use. Our theoretical model suggests that the effect of COP insurance on input use can either be positive or negative, with the resulting impact depending on the strengths of (a) the traditional moral hazard effect of insurance (i.e., an input use decreasing effect); versus (b) the marginal incentives to apply more inputs due to input levels being the main determinant for expected indemnity amounts in this type of insurance (i.e., an input use increasing effect). A survey data set from corn farmers in the Philippines is then used to empirically illustrate how a particular COP insurance product influences input use in a real-life context. In this case, we find that COP insurance increases the use of chemical inputs (e.g., fertilizers and total chemical expenditure), implying that the positive marginal incentive to apply more inputs dominates the negative moral hazard effect.

Keywords：cost-of-production crop insurance, moral hazard

《AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS》，最新影响因子为2.585，刊载方向为农业经济与政策，主题涵盖从消费和营养到土地使用和环境，从农户到市场和宏观经济的各个分析规模。本刊物旨在世界各地传播学科最重要的研究结果和政策分析。

原文链接：

 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12558

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