《AE》| ABAY AND JENSEN：市场准入、天气风险和牲畜生产决策:来自埃塞俄比亚的证据

摘要：尽管有几项研究表明了市场准入和天气条件对作物生产的影响，我们对畜牧生产系统能否以及如何应对天气风险和市场准入的变化知之甚少。在本文中，我们研究牲畜生产能否以及如何应对天气风险和市场准入。我们还探讨了这种反应是否因生计区域和牲畜生产系统而异。我们利用埃塞俄比亚家庭的牲畜产量、所有权和营销决策来研究这些研究问题。我们发现，住在市场附近的家庭更有可能从事面向市场的牲畜生产，并使用现代牲畜投入。我们还发现，暴露在更不可预测的天气中的家庭不太可能为市场从事牲畜生产，相反，他们更有可能为了预防性储蓄和保险而从事牲畜生产。此外，更大的降雨不确定性影响了牲畜投资组合向易于清算的牲畜的分配，同时也阻碍了对现代牲畜投入的投资。然而，这些反应和模式因生计区域和生产系统而异；这些程式化的反应和影响大多在埃塞俄比亚的干旱和半干旱土地上更为明显和显著，那里的畜牧业仍然是主要的生计来源。那些仅依靠畜牧业生产的家庭似乎对天气风险和天气冲击更加敏感。农业系统和生计对天气风险的反应和影响各不相同，这突出表明需要更有针对性的畜牧业政策和干预措施。

关键词：牲畜生产；营销；市场；投资组合分配；天气风险

Abstract：Despite several studies showing the effect of access to markets and weather conditions on crop production, we know quite little on whether and how livestock production systems respond to variation in weather risk and access to markets. In this paper, we study whether and how livestock production responds to (access to) markets and varying weather risk. We also explore whether such responses vary across livelihood zones and livestock production systems. We study these research questions using households’ livestock production, ownership, and marketing decisions of households in Ethiopia. We find that households living close to markets are more likely to engage in market-oriented livestock production and use modern livestock inputs. We also find that households exposed to more unpredictable weather are less likely to engage in livestock production for markets, rather they are more likely to engage in livestock production for precautionary savings and insurance. Furthermore, greater rainfall uncertainty influences livestock portfolio allocation toward those which can be easily liquidated while also discouraging investment in modern livestock inputs. However, these responses and patterns vary across livelihood zones and production systems; most of these stylized responses and impacts are more pronounced and significant in the arid and semi-arid lands of Ethiopia, where livestock herding remains a dominant source of livelihood. Those households relying only on livestock production seem more sensitive and responsive to weather risk and weather shocks. The heterogeneity in responses and impacts of weather risk among farming systems and livelihoods highlights the need for more tailored livestock sector policies and interventions.

Keywords: livestock production; marketing; markets;  portfolio allocation;  weather risk.

《AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS》，最新影响因子为2.585，刊载方向为农业经济与政策，主题涵盖从消费和营养到土地使用和环境，从农户到市场和宏观经济的各个分析规模。本刊物旨在世界各地传播学科最重要的研究结果和政策分析。

原文链接：

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12573

●《AJAE》| Yu Na Lee：价格风险厌恶会推动迁移吗？来自埃塞俄比亚农村的证据

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