《AJAE》|技术溢出与土地利用变化:来自全球农业的经验证据
摘要：我们预估了各个国家和整个世界农业技术进步对耕地扩张的影响，同时正式地解释了国家供给响应的国际相互依赖关系。迄今为止，有关这些影响的证据还很少，这导致人们对改进农业技术作为减缓森林砍伐的手段的潜力的看法产生两极分化。我们发现，在世界上大多数国家，全要素生产力(TFP)要么与耕地不相关，要么与耕地正相关扩张。然而，全球TFP增长一直是全球土地的一个重要来源储蓄。国家级和全球结果之间的差异可以用各国在国际市场上相互作用时生产模式的变化来解释。我们对全球耕地关于全球TFP增长的弹性的首选点估计是-0.34。此外，我们估计在没有观察到TFP增长的情况下， 1991年至2010年的粮食需求增加的1.73亿公顷，或者是接近热带雨林覆盖面积的10%的森林消失。
关键词： 农业科技 森林砍伐 农业全球化 土地使用改变 国际贸易 全要素生产力
Abstract：We estimate the effects of agricultural technological progress on cropland expansion at various geographical resolutions, from the country level to the world as a whole, while formally accounting for the international interdependence of national supply responses. Evidence for these effects has thus far been scant, contributing to polarized perceptions about the potential for improving agricultural technologies as a means to slow down deforestation. We find that, in most countries of the world, growth in total factor productivity (TFP) is either uncorrelated or is positively associated with cropland expansion. Yet worldwide TFP growth have been an important source of global land savings. The divergence between the country-level and the global results is explained by the changes in production patterns as countries interact in international markets. Our preferred point estimate of the elasticity of global cropland to global TFP growth is -0.34. Moreover, we estimate that satisfying food demand from 1991 to 2010 without observed TFP growth would have necessitated an additional 173 million hectares, or close to 10% of the area covered by tropical rain forests.
Key Words：Agriculturaltechnology, deforestation,global agriculture,landusechange, international trade，total factor productivity
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1093/ajae/aay088
《AJAE》全称为《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》，《美国农业经济学杂志》旨在为世界各地的农业和食品经济学、自然资源和环境、以及农村和社区发展等领域的创造性学术工作讨论提供平台。最新影响因子为4.082，刊载方向为管理科学-农业经济与政策。