《Food Policy》｜来自不幸的财富:生猪公司股价对中国非洲猪瘟爆发的反应

摘要

中国是世界上最大的生猪生产国，也是主要的猪肉进口国。2018年8月以来，一场传染性强、猪致死率高的非洲猪瘟疫情持续暴发，严重影响了中国畜牧业，造成40%的生猪死亡。我们利用来自中国25家主要上市公司和8个主要猪肉出口国的每日股票收益数据，首次对猪瘟疫情对企业层面的经济影响进行了系统分析。我们发现，平均而言，非洲猪瘟疫情的公示为中国和国际生猪企业带来了正且显著的股票回报。在2019年中国春节期间，中国生猪企业平均获得了10%-40%的累计异常回报，投资者在猪肉需求高峰期间看到了库存损失近20%的迹象。我们的研究表明，规模较大的生猪公司往往获得更大的正股票回报。我们的研究结果表明，中国肉类行业存在整合、扩张和升级的机会，这对其全球竞争力和效率具有长期影响。

关键词

股票价格；异常回报；农业政策；事件研究；粮食安全；非洲猪瘟

Abstract

China is the world’s largest hog producer and a leading pork importer. Since August 2018, ongoing outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF), a highly contagious and deadly disease affecting pigs, have hit China’s livestock industries and wiped out 40% of China’s pigs. We leverage data on daily stock returns from 25 major publicly listed firms from China and eight major pork-exporting countries to provide the first systematic analysis of the firm-level economic impacts of the outbreaks. We find that, on average, announcements of ASF outbreaks have led to positive and significant stock returns for both Chinese and international hog firms. China’s hog firms, on average, enjoyed 10%–40% cumulative abnormal returns during the 2019 Chinese Spring Festival, when investors saw signs of a near-20% inventory loss during a peak demand season for pork. We show that larger hog firms tend to capture greater positive stock returns. Our results suggest opportunities for consolidation, expansion, and upgrades of China’s meat industry that have long-run implications for its global competitiveness and efficiency.

Keywords

Stock prices；Abnormal returns；Agricultural policy；Event study；Food security；African Swine Fever

期刊简介

《粮食政策》是一份多学科期刊，发表有关发展中国家、转型国家和发达经济体粮食部门政策制定、实施和评估问题的原始研究和新证据。影响因子4.552

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