刘明康教授在港中大（深圳）第八届研究生毕业典礼上的主题演讲

11月18日上午，香港中文大学（深圳）第八届研究生毕业典礼在大学礼文堂隆重举行。 

香港中文大学荣誉博士、原中国银监会主席刘明康教授在演讲中分析了后疫情时代存在的诸多不确定性因素，启示同学们思考“面对不确定的时代，我们能否有穿越周期的力量。” 刘教授通过分享自己经历的两个故事鼓励同学们要积极面对时代的不确定性，保持积极心态，勇敢乐观地前行。

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观看刘明康教授的主题演讲

香港中文大学荣誉博士

原中国银监会主席

刘明康教授

刘明康教授在第八届研究生毕业典礼上作主题演讲

尊敬的徐扬生校长、尊敬的各位老师，亲爱的各位毕业生、学生家长，校友们：

今天是香港中文大学(深圳)又一个振奋人心的时刻。我怀着自豪和激动的心情，在这里向我们毕业的研究生们致以最热烈的祝贺！过去几年里，你们在这个充满知识的殿堂里，用汗水和智慧灌溉了自己的成长。今天，你们将以崭新的身份，走出这扇母校的大门，踏上更为广阔的人生旅程。

你们是经过世纪疫情后第一批毕业的学生。你们也面临着不同寻常的毕业前景。后疫情时代，经济下行压力持续，就业形势更加严峻，大国博弈、局部战争，世界似乎更加繁杂无序，充满偶然、意外、甚至荒诞。面对时代洪流和命运不确定，迷茫、焦虑也许是年轻人普遍的情绪：全球化红利是不是离我们渐行渐远？年轻人还有哪些向上流动机会？哪些行业还没有遭遇寒冬？率先抢走我们职业饭碗的是人工智能还是 35 岁危机？

面对不确定时代，我们能否有穿越周期的力量？我想分享二个我的故事，也许能给你们一些启发。

毕业生聆听刘明康教授的演讲

第一个故事。20 世纪 60 年代，我下放到农村。在那个年代，你没有选择。农村生活非常艰苦。我与当地老乡从早到晚下地耕田，干重体力活，即便如此，由于口粮有限，经常吃不饱。这种日子一过就是 10 年。一次偶然的机会，我发现农村小镇上卖花生米的农民把一本本收来的旧书撕下来当作包裹纸。于是我就成为了唯一一个花钱不要花生米的怪人。这些旧书成为了我漫长的冬夜自学和思考的一个源泉。后来，当改革开放开创出一个崭新的时代时，我适时地通过了各种考试，也在工作中发表过许多研究性文章，顺应呼啸而来的变迁，跨越了那个特殊的周期。回顾当时的我何以少了徬徨，多了一些收获，我想似乎不能忽略那些背后长期的坚持。

我不是抚今追昔，更不是歌颂苦难。每一代人都有自己的际遇，都要在自己所处的时代条件下谋划人生、创造历史。我们的生命总起起伏伏，就像一年有春夏秋冬。无论顺逆，都是生活的一部分。托尔斯泰说，大多数人都想改变这个世界，但没人想改变自己。孔子曰：君子求诸己，小人求诸人。困顿中，我们难以改变环境、改变他人，与其迷茫焦虑，不如拥抱变化、适应变化，聚精会神改变自己。我想，这也是时代变幻、生活无常之中我们唯一能够把握的事情。找到自己真心热爱的领域和奋斗目标，勇于尝试不同的事物，每天从做的事遇见的人里，思考自己的不足，找到改进方法。当你能够保持积极心态，无畏浮沉，勇敢乐观前行时，命运的齿轮也将为你悄然转动。

刘明康教授鼓励毕业生要积极面对不确定的时代，积蓄穿越周期的力量

第二个故事。80 年代，我从英国工作回来，也是我 MBA 研究生刚毕业。当时江苏省的一个面粉厂想为大众提供精白粉，于是便筹划从英国引进全套设备，用的是当时英国政府的出口信贷，500 万英镑，五年贷款期，利率按照优惠的出口信贷利率。在叙做这笔转贷业务时，我从客户角度出发，认真了解了一下当时国际金融市场的动态。从英美的经贸与货币政策走势来看，在未来的几年里，我的判断是美元对英镑大概率走弱。当时还外债的规定是面粉厂用人民币换成美元，这个利率是固定的，然后再从美元兑换成英镑，这个利率是随行就市的，再用来偿还英国的出口信贷。如果不采取相应措施，这将意味着这家面粉厂可能会用更多的人民币去换更多的美元，才能还得上今后坚挺的到期英镑本息。于是我便设计了市场远期保值手段来保护我们的客户，并主动向这家客户介绍了行情及宜采取的保值措施。最后，经客户审慎研究决定，给我们出具了业务委托书。这笔业务果然不出所料，在还本付息前三年中遇到了上述的汇率风险。但因为远期调换业务的叙做，这个面粉厂避免了当时上百万人民币汇率的损失。银行的主动性和专业服务为客户带来了价值实现。这对 80 年代的省级银行分行来说还是零的突破。这种专业服务离全球金融大繁荣大创新也就只差了五年时光。必须指出的是，全心全意、满腔热情地帮助你的客户是至上的原则。但同时需要全过程中保持冷静的头脑，毕竟这只是市场预测和措施建议，在风险和责任面前不能越位。这就是为什么我当时要求尊重和必须遵循客户在知情下自主决策、自担风险。你要跨越周期，你要弯道超车、不同凡响，必须记住两条：warm hearts, cool heads, 缺一不可。

以上这些就是我想与你们今天分享的二条感悟：不断改善自己，勇敢将问题视为机遇；真诚地为别人服务，与他人携手同行。这也许能够成为你们对时代不确定性的回应。其实我也知道，许多年轻人表面嚷嚷摆烂，背地彻夜奋战，上一秒“毁灭吧！世界” ，下一秒就“满血复活”。历史充分证明，青年总是怀着远大理想抱负，深厚家国情怀，以及伟大创造力的。香港中文大学（深圳）永远相信你们，在你们日后前行时也永远会是你们的坚强后盾。

毕业快乐！

*Slide up to read 

the speech in EN version

Respected President Xu Yangsheng, esteemed faculty, dear graduates, parents, and alumni，

Today marks a significant moment at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen  (CUHK-Shenzhen). With great pride and excitement, I extend my warmest congratulations to you. Overthe past few years, you have dedicated yourselves to intellectual growth with diligence and wisdom in this renowned university. Today, as you step out of the campus, you unlock a fresh identity and embark on a new journey in life.

As the first cohort of graduates after the pandemic, you face unique challenges. In this post-pandemic era, we see persistent economic pressures, increasingly competitive job market, superpower contests, regional conflicts, and the world appears more complex and disorderly, filled with randomness, unexpectedness, and even surrealism. In times of unpredictability, it is understandable that you may be grappling with emotions like confusion and anxiety. The questions loom large: Is the dividend of globalization drifting away from us? Do young people still have opportunities for upward social mobility? Which industries remain unaffected amid economic downturns? Will artificial intelligence or the so-called "35-year-old crisis" be the harbinger of professional change?

Confronting such uncertainties, do we possess the power to navigate through its cycles? I would like to share two personal stories, perhaps providing you with some inspiration.

The first story.

In the 1960s, when I barely came of age, I left my hometown and was settled down in the countryside. Life was extremely hard. Day in and day out, I tilled the land with farmers, sweating through a lot of work. Despite this, the scarcity of food often made me starve. Each day was exhausting, this challenging way of life persisted for a good ten years. Interestingly enough, I happened to find a farmer in the town selling peanuts. The peanuts were wrapped in the paper torn from some old books he collected from garbage houses. Then these second-hand books became my spiritual solace during that period. Reading and thinking hard became part of my messy life since, especially during the long winter evenings. Later in life, I had a diverse career journey as a banker, government official, banking regulator, or a professor standing here before you, each time I reflect, those long winter nights of intense self-study by a kerosene lamp, seem like shining pearls in the river of time.

I am not dwelling on the past, nor am I romanticizing hardship. Each generation faces its unique challenges and must chart its own course in the circumstances of its time. Our lives, like the changing seasons, have their ebbs and flows. Whether in times of prosperity or adversity, it is all part of our lives. As Tolstoy wisely noted, while many aspire to change the world, few consider changing themselves. In the words of Confucius: we need to "Look inward to find solutions." During tough times, it may be difficult to change the environment or others. Instead of getting lost in confusion and anxiety, embrace change, cope up with whatever the life throws at you. I believe this is the one thing we can really control amid the ever-changing times and the unpredictabilities and finally you'll find good fortune is gradually turning in your favor.

The second story.

In the 1980s, I returned to China from working in the UK, having just completed my MBA. At that time, a flour mill in Jiangsu Province sought to offer high-quality white flour to the public. Their plan involved importing a complete set of equipment from the UK, utilizing a £5 million loan with a five-year term and favorable ECGD export credit rates. I led a team to orchestrate this forward currency swap transaction. I approached it from the client's perspective, and made careful research on the dynamics of the international financial markets. By analyzing the trends in economy, trade, and monetary policies, I thought it was very likely to see the weakening of the US dollar against the British pound in the following years. At the time, to pay off any foreign credit, the borrowers would have to exchange Chinese yuan for US dollars at a domestic designated fixed rate, and then convert these dollars into British pounds at floating rates which was subject to potential market risks from fluctuations. Without appropriate risk management measures in place, the mill might have to pay a substantial extra amount of Chinese yuan for the pound debt repayments in the due time. In order to protect our client, I designed forward swap10 hedging strategies, and explained to them in detail the market trend and relative hedging recommendations. Ultimately, with the client’s deliberation and consent, they agreed and issued us a letter of engagement. Just as expected, this business encountered the exchange rate risks in the first three years in repayment. However, due to the execution of the forward exchange swap, the flour mill avoided the loss of several millions of yuan in exchange rate fluctuations. For a provincial bank branch in the 1980s, such proactive attitude and professional service not only brought tangible value to the client but also marked a breakthrough. Moreover this level of professional service was provided in China only about 5 years away from the Big Bang when London started to offer global innovation the same kind. It is absolutely crucial to emphasize that wholeheartedly serving your clients is key. However, staying cool-headed throughout the whole process is equally important. After all, our recommendations are just based on market predictions, and we are not the one to bear the risk and responsibility eventually. That's why, at that time, I insisted on fully respecting client's choices in decision-making and risk-taking as long as we kept them well informed. So, if you wish to navigate through the tough cycles, or gain an advantage in competitions, you must bear in mind the rule No.1 of service: "warm hearts, cool heads." And the two make a tango.

So these are the two insights I'd like to share with you: strive for self-improvement, perceive challenges as opportunities, and serve the mankind with warm hearts and cool heads. I hope these can be your response to the uncertainties of the times. I also understand that many young people may seem to slack off, but in reality they work very hard. In one moment, they may say, "Let the world perish!" and in the next moment, they bounce back with renewed vitality. History has shown that young people are always blessed with lofty ideals, strong sense of social responsibility, and immense creativity. The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen (CUHK-Shenzhen) will always have faith in you and will forever back you up.

Congratulations on your graduation!

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