Fueled by favorable policies, China's residential real estate market witnessed an uptick in inquiries and viewings over the first three days of the National Day holiday. Experts have predicted a country-wide market revival marked by increased transactions, with first-tier cities leading the trend.受利好政策推动，中国住宅房地产市场在国庆假期前三天迎来了咨询和看房量的回升。专家预测，全国市场将迎来复苏，交易量增加，一线城市将引领这一趋势。 They said recent policy adjustments that eased restrictions on leveraging, along with previous measures such as ensuring the delivery of pre-sale properties and the 300 billion yuan ($42.7 billion) loan to State-owned enterprises for affordable housing projects, are crucial for stabilizing the market. However, further support from the central bank may still be required to sustain the momentum.他们表示，近期放宽杠杆限制的政策调整，以及之前实施的确保预售房屋交付和向国有企业提供3000亿元人民币（约合427亿美元）用于保障性住房项目的贷款等措施，对于稳定市场至关重要。然而，为了保持这一势头，可能还需要央行提供进一步的支持。 "Our phones rang non-stop the day new policies were announced, as they captured the attention of numerous potential homebuyers," said Wu Libin, sales manager at house-letting agency 5i5j in Beijing, adding that inquiries are still coming in.“新政策公布的那天，我们的电话响个不停，因为新政策吸引了众多潜在购房者的关注，”北京5i5j房屋租赁机构销售经理吴立斌说，并补充说咨询仍在持续。 Another sales manager in Beijing E-Town told Beijing News on Tuesday that transactions worth 125 million yuan had been completed and more than 100 families had visited the development area since Beijing announced its policies on Monday.北京亦庄的另一位销售经理周二在接受《北京新闻》采访时表示，自周一北京公布政策以来，已完成1.25亿元人民币的交易额，并有100多户家庭参观了开发区。 There was a rush of inquiries elsewhere too. In Guangzhou, Guangdong province, a housing sales center in Liwan district extended its office hours and stayed open throughout the night following Guangzhou's policy announcement on Sunday.其他地方也出现了咨询热潮。在广东省广州市，荔湾区的一个住房销售中心在周日广州政策公布后延长了办公时间，彻夜开放。 By Monday noon, the number of visitors to the sales center had surged by 200 percent compared to usual levels, according to Jimu News. A staff member surnamed Liu said while some buyers jumped at the chance to buy following the policy announcement, others had opted for a wait-and-watch approach.据吉姆新闻报道，截至周一中午，该销售中心的访客数量比平时激增了200%。一名姓刘的工作人员表示，虽然一些买家在政策公布后立即抓住了购房机会，但其他人则选择了观望。 Shenzhen in Guangdong province and Shanghai also reported a rise in the number of visitors to various sales offices. Latest data from a research center of realty agency Leyoujia revealed a nearly 40 percent surge in pre-owned home transactions at Leyoujia sales centers on Monday compared to the previous day — the highest since February 2021. New home transactions also hit a two-year high. Xinmin Evening News revealed that multiple sales offices in Shanghai are fully booked for house viewings next week.广东省深圳市和上海市也报告了各售楼处访客数量的增加。来自房地产机构乐有家研究中心的最新数据显示，周一乐有家各售楼处二手房交易量较前一日激增近40%，为2021年2月以来最高。新房交易量也创下两年新高。《新民晚报》透露，上海多家售楼处下周的看房预约已满。 The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said on Sunday that cities, especially first-tier cities, should utilize policies and adjust housing purchase restrictions based on local conditions. The same day, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all made significant policy changes. Shanghai streamlined its purchase restrictions, notably reducing the threshold and initial payment costs. Among first-tier cities, Guangzhou was the first to completely remove home purchase restrictions. Shenzhen also lifted such restrictions in several areas.住房和城乡建设部周日表示，各城市，特别是一线城市，应根据当地情况制定政策，调整购房限制。同日，上海、广州和深圳都做出了重大政策调整。上海简化了购房限制，显著降低了门槛和首付成本。在一线城市中，广州率先完全取消了购房限制。深圳也在多个地区取消了此类限制。 On Monday, Beijing also announced measures such as further reducing interest rates on existing housing loans and lowering the minimum down payment for personal housing loans. Yan Yuejin, vice-president of the Shanghai-based E-House China R&D Institute, said the new policies in the four major cities, in conjunction with financial policies from the People's Bank of China, are timely, precise and comprehensive, playing a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market.周一，北京也宣布了进一步降低现有住房贷款利率和降低个人住房贷款最低首付比例等措施。易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进表示，四大城市的新政策与中国人民银行的金融政策相结合，及时、精准、全面，对稳定房地产市场起到了积极作用。 "All of the four first-tier cities have modified their purchase restrictions in response to new market demands, continuously optimizing relevant policies to better support the release of reasonable housing consumption demands. Other cities nationwide are expected to follow suit, indicating a period of comprehensive policy relaxation," Yan said.“所有四个一线城市都根据新的市场需求修改了购房限制，不断优化相关政策，以更好地支持合理住房消费需求的释放。预计全国其他城市也将效仿，这表明将迎来一段全面放松政策的时期，”严跃进说。 "China's real estate market is anticipated to witness a wave of transactions in the fourth quarter, potentially seeing a favorable trend of both increased sales volume and prices."“中国房地产市场有望在第四季度迎来一波交易热潮，可能会出现销量和价格双双上涨的有利趋势。” Charlie Zheng, chief economist at Samoyed Cloud Technology Group Holdings, took a more cautious stance. He said that while the property market had previously experienced an overall decline in sales, the introduction of positive policies could halt this trend in cities particularly with strong demand and population influxes. However, a combined effort of existing policies and potentially further increased loan support from the central bank could be necessary for a nationwide rebound in the realty market in the future.萨摩耶云科技集团控股有限公司首席经济学家郑磊持更为谨慎的立场。他表示，虽然房地产市场此前整体销量下滑，但积极政策的出台可能会阻止这一趋势，特别是在需求旺盛和人口流入的城市。然而，现有政策和央行可能进一步增加的贷款支持相结合，可能是未来房地产市场在全国范围内反弹所必需的。 Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?投资者在决定对某只股票进行买入、卖出或持有操作时，往往会参考华尔街分析师的建议。虽然媒体对这些受雇于经纪公司（或卖方）的分析师评级变动的报道经常会影响股票价格，但这些报道真的重要吗？ Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Alibaba (BABA) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.在探讨经纪公司建议的可靠性以及如何利用这些建议之前，我们先来看看华尔街这些重量级人物对阿里巴巴（BABA）的看法。 Alibaba currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.35, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 17 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.35 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.阿里巴巴目前的平均经纪公司推荐值（ABR）为1.35，该值基于1至5的等级（从强烈买入到强烈卖出），是根据17家经纪公司给出的实际建议（买入、持有、卖出等）计算得出的。1.35的ABR值介于强烈买入和买入之间。 Of the 17 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 14 are Strong Buy, representing 82.4% of all recommendations. The ABR suggests buying Alibaba, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.在得出当前ABR值的17条建议中，有14条为强烈买入，占所有建议的82.4%。ABR建议买入阿里巴巴，但仅凭这一信息做出投资决策可能并不明智。根据几项研究，经纪公司建议很少能成功指导投资者选择最具价格上涨潜力的股票。 Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.你想知道为什么吗？由于经纪公司对其所关注的股票存在既得利益，其分析师往往对其持强烈正面倾向的评级。根据我们的研究，经纪公司每给出一条“强烈卖出”建议，就会给出五条“强烈买入”建议。 In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.换句话说，他们的利益并不总是与散户投资者一致，很少能准确指示股票价格的实际走势。因此，这些信息的最佳用途是验证你自己的研究或作为预测股票价格走势的可靠指标。 Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.Zacks Rank是我们独有的股票评级工具，拥有令人印象深刻的外部审计记录，它将股票分为五个组别，从Zacks Rank 1（强烈买入）到Zacks Rank 5（强烈卖出），是预测股票近期价格表现的有效指标。因此，使用ABR来验证Zacks Rank可能是做出盈利投资决策的有效方法。 Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRZacks排名不应与ABR混淆 Although both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1-5, they are different measures altogether.尽管Zacks Rank和ABR都显示在1-5的范围内，但它们是完全不同的衡量标准。 Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers 1 to 5.ABR仅基于经纪公司的建议进行计算，通常以小数形式显示（如1.28）。而Zacks Rank则是一个定量模型，旨在利用盈利预测修订的力量。它以整数形式显示，即1至5。 It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.一直以来，经纪公司雇用的分析师给出的建议都过于乐观。由于雇主的既得利益，这些分析师给出的评级往往比其研究结果支持的评级更为乐观，误导投资者的次数远多于帮助投资者的次数。 On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.另一方面，盈利预测修订是Zacks Rank的核心。实证研究表明，盈利预测修订的趋势与近期股票价格走势之间存在强烈的相关性。 Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.此外，Zacks Rank的不同等级在经纪公司分析师为当年提供盈利预测的所有股票中按比例分配。也就是说，该工具始终在其分配的五个等级之间保持平衡。 There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.在时效性方面，ABR和Zacks Rank也存在关键差异。当你查看ABR时，它可能不是最新的。然而，由于经纪公司分析师不断修订其盈利预测以反映不断变化的商业趋势，并且这些行动会迅速反映在Zacks Rank中，因此它在预测未来股票价格方面总是及时的。 Is BABA a Good Investment?阿里巴巴是良好的投资选择吗？ In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Alibaba, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $8.68. Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.就阿里巴巴的盈利预测修订而言，过去一个月，Zacks共识估计的今年每股收益保持不变，为8.68美元。分析师对公司盈利前景的稳定看法（如共识估计未变所示）可能是该股近期表现与大盘一致的正当理由。 It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Alibaba.因此，对于阿里巴巴相当于买入的ABR值，我们或许应该保持一些谨慎。 素材来源：iYuba 长按上方二维码，下载英语日报APP