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为什么会出现负油价?

LearnAndRecord 2022-07-26

周一,美国WTI5月原油期货价格不仅创下了历史新低,并且历史上首次收于负值,报-37.63美元/桶。



无注释原文:


Over a barrel: how oil prices dropped below zero


The Guardian


US oil prices turned negative for the first time in history on Monday amid the deepest fall in demand in 25 years. A flood of unwanted oil in the market caused the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark price for US oil, to plummet to almost –$40 a barrel after the fastest plunge in history. That meant producers were paying buyers to take oil off their hands.


1. Why have US oil prices turned negative?

The price of oil has been steadily falling across global markets since coronavirus first broke out in China at the end of 2019. Since then, the shutdown of major economies and travel routes to curb the spread of the virus has wiped out oil demand as transport has ground to a halt. But oil producers have continued to pump crude from their wells, causing a catastrophic imbalance between oversupplied oil and the biggest slump in demand for 25 years.


2. What do ‘negative prices’ mean?

In short: oil producers are paying buyers to take the barrels of oil off their hands because storage facilities are full to the brim. At the market’s lowest point on Monday, an oil company might have paid about $40 for every barrel of oil someone was willing to take. A buyer would need to factor in the cost of transporting oil from the well to a shipping port, or a storage facility, where it may need to be held for up to six months, at significant cost. They would also need to bet that oil prices will rise later this year to make a return on the “investment”. No oil company wants to “sell” their crude at a loss, so many producers are likely to shut their wells until the market recovers.


3. Why are oil prices in other countries still above zero?

The world’s oversupply of oil is particularly acute in the US, which produces around 10m barrels of oil every day, because oil storage tanks have filled up, leaving oil companies desperate to sell their surplus barrels. In other regions, including the UK, oil prices are still above zero in part because theyface lower transport costs and easier access to ports. Still, no oil market has remained unscathed. The international benchmark oil price, known as Brent crude, is still above $20 a barrel, but has fallen by two-thirds since January to 18-year lows.


4. What does this mean for petrol prices?

Petrol prices are likely to fall sharply this year due to the sudden collapse of oil prices and the long road to market recovery that probably lies ahead. But it is worth keeping in mind that the price paid at the pump is not a perfect reflection of the oil markets because petrol and diesel prices include government taxes and a profit margin for the seller. The negative oil prices seen in the US will be short-lived, so no one should expect to be paid for filling up their car.


5. Are prices likely to recover?

Yes, and quite quickly. The negative US oil price referred specifically to the price for crude delivered in May, the month in which oil demand is expected to be lowest and supplies are expected to be highest. From Tuesday, oil traders will begin trading barrels for delivery in June in earnest, and these are expected to fetch far higher prices. A meaningful recovery of oil market prices will depend on how quickly demand for transport fuels increases – a speedy end to lockdown would accelerate a market price recovery, but a slow emergence from the Covid-19 crisis could mean further financial pain for oil producers until 2021.


- ◆ -


含注释全文:


Over a barrel: how oil prices dropped below zero


The Guardian


US oil prices turned negative for the first time in history on Monday amid the deepest fall in demand in 25 years. A flood of unwanted oil in the market caused the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark price for US oil, to plummet to almost –$40 a barrel after the fastest plunge in history. That meant producers were paying buyers to take oil off their hands.


美国油价周一在历史上首次转为负值,需求量创下25年来的最大跌幅。市场上大量不需要的石油涌入,导致美国石油基准价格西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)在历史上最快的一次暴跌后,跌至每桶-40美元。这意味着生产商正在向买家付费,让他们把石油从手中夺走。



over a barrel


这里的标题over a barrel可以理解为双关,双重含义,1)短语(get/have sb) over a barrel表示“(使某人)听从摆布,处于被动地位”,英文解释为“(to put/have sb) in a situation in which they must accept or do what you want举个🌰:

They've got us over a barrel. Either we agree to their terms or we lose the money.

他们让我们别无选择。我们要么答应他们的条件,要么损失这笔钱。


2)barrel作名词,表示石油计量单位“一桶(的量);桶”,因为解释为:the contents of or the amount contained in a barrel ; a unit of measurement in the oil industry equal to between 120 and 159 litres,举个🌰:

Oil prices fell to -$40 a barrel.

石油价格降到了每桶-40元。



negative


表示“负数的”,英文解释为“A negative number, quantity, or measurement is less than zero.”举个🌰:

Difficult texts record a positive score and simple ones score negative numbers.

难度大的文本标为正值,简单的文本标为负值。



benchmark


表示“衡量基准”,英文解释为“A benchmark is something whose quality or quantity is known and which can therefore be used as a standard with which other things can be compared.”举个🌰:

The truck industry is a benchmark for the economy.

卡车产业是衡量经济发展的基准。



plummet


plummet /ˈplʌmɪt/一词在瑞幸咖啡怎么了?文中就提到过,表示“(数量、比率、价格)暴跌”,英文解释为“If an amount, rate, or price plummets, it decreases quickly by a large amount.举个🌰:

In Tokyo share prices have plummeted for the sixth successive day. 

在东京,股价已经是连续第6天暴跌了。


CNBC的标题Shares of China’s Luckin Coffee plummet 80% after investigation finds COO fabricated sales就用到了plummet这个词。类似的表达「暴跌」的词有:plummet,tank,sink. 以及下面要提到的plunge和slump,详见>>瑞幸咖啡怎么了?



plunge


1)作动词,表示“骤降”,英文解释为“If an amount or rate plunges, it decreases quickly and suddenly.”举个🌰:

His weight began to plunge.

他的体重开始骤然下降。


2)作名词,表示“骤降”,举个🌰:

Japan's banks are in trouble because of bad loans and the stock market plunge.

日本各家银行处于困境,缘于不良贷款以及股市的暴跌。


CNN的标题China's Luckin Coffee plunges 75% on accounting probe用的是plunge一词。



1. Why have US oil prices turned negative?

1. 美国油价为何转为负值?


The price of oil has been steadily falling across global markets since coronavirus first broke out in China at the end of 2019. Since then, the shutdown of major economies and travel routes to curb the spread of the virus has wiped out oil demand as transport has ground to a halt. But oil producers have continued to pump crude from their wells, causing a catastrophic imbalance between oversupplied oil and the biggest slump in demand for 25 years.


自2019年年底中国首次爆发冠状病毒事件以来,全球市场油价持续下跌。此后,主要经济体和旅游线路的关闭以遏制病毒的传播,由于运输陷入停顿,石油需求被消灭殆尽。但石油生产商继续从油井中抽取原油,导致石油供应过剩与需求25年来最大的低迷之间的灾难性失衡。



curb


表示“控制,抑制,限定,约束(不好的事物)”,英文解释为“to control or limit sth, especially sth bad”举个🌰:

He needs to learn to curb his temper.

他得学着控制自己的脾气。



wipe out


表示“摧毁;使灭绝”,英文解释为“To wipe out something such as a place or a group of people or animals means to destroy them completely.”举个🌰:

Experts say if the island is not protected, the spill could wipe out the gulf's turtle population.

专家们说如果那座小岛得不到保护,此次泄露有可能使该海湾地区的海龟灭绝。



pump


1)表示“抽送”,英文解释为“To pump a liquid or gas in a particular direction means to force it to flow in that direction using a pump.”举个🌰:

The money raised will be used to dig bore holes to pump water into the dried-up lake.

筹到的钱款将用来挖井眼,再将水抽入干涸的湖中。


2)表示“洗胃”,英文解释为“If someone has their stomach pumped, doctors remove the contents of their stomach, for example, because they have swallowed poison or drugs.”举个🌰:

One woman was rushed to the emergency room to have her stomach pumped.

一名妇女被紧急送进急诊室去洗胃。



crude


crude/crude oil表示“原油;石油”,英文解释为“oil in its natural state, before it has been treated with chemicals”。



catastrophic


catastrophic /ˌkætəˈstrɒfɪk/ 1)表示“灾难性的”,英文解释为“Something that is catastrophic involves or causes a sudden terrible disaster.”举个🌰:

The water shortage is potentially catastrophic.

水资源的匮乏很可能是灾难性的。


2)表示“极糟的;失败的”,英文解释为“If you describe something as catastrophic, you mean that it is very bad or unsuccessful.”



slump


1)作动词,表示“(价值等)暴跌”,英文解释为“If something such as the value of something slumps, it falls suddenly and by a large amount.”举个🌰:

Net profits slumped by 23%

净利润暴跌了23%。


2)作名词,同样表示“暴跌”,举个🌰:

The council's land is now worth much less than originally hoped because of a slump in property prices.

由于地产价格的暴跌,委员会的土地目前大不如原来所希望的那么值钱了。



2. What do ‘negative prices’ mean?

2. "负价格"意味着什么?


In short: oil producers are paying buyers to take the barrels of oil off their hands because storage facilities are full to the brim. At the market’s lowest point on Monday, an oil company might have paid about $40 for every barrel of oil someone was willing to take. A buyer would need to factor in the cost of transporting oil from the well to a shipping port, or a storage facility, where it may need to be held for up to six months, at significant cost. They would also need to bet that oil prices will rise later this year to make a return on the “investment”. No oil company wants to “sell” their crude at a loss, so many producers are likely to shut their wells until the market recovers.


简而言之:石油生产商正在支付买家的费用,让他们把手中的桶装石油拿走,因为储存设施已经满了。在周一市场最低点时,石油公司可能为每一桶石油支付约40美元,有人愿意拿下一桶石油。买方需要考虑到将石油从油井运到装运港口或储存设施的成本,在那里可能需要将石油存放长达6个月,成本巨大。他们还需要押注今年晚些时候油价会上涨,以获得 "投资 "回报。没有一家石油公司愿意亏本 "卖出 "原油,所以很多生产商很可能会关闭油井,直到市场复苏。



factor in/into


表示“将…因素包括进来”,英文解释为“to include a particular fact or situation when you are thinking about or planning sth”举个🌰:

Remember to factor in staffing costs when you are planning the project.

规划该项目时,记住要把雇人费用这个因素考虑进去。



3. Why are oil prices in other countries still above zero?

3. 为什么其他国家的油价仍在零以上?


The world’s oversupply of oil is particularly acute in the US, which produces around 10m barrels of oil every day, because oil storage tanks have filled up, leaving oil companies desperate to sell their surplus barrels. In other regions, including the UK, oil prices are still above zero in part because they face lower transport costs and easier access to ports. Still, no oil market has remained unscathed. The international benchmark oil price, known as Brent crude, is still above $20 a barrel, but has fallen by two-thirds since January to 18-year lows.


世界石油供应过剩的情况在美国尤为严重,美国每天生产约1000万桶石油,因为石油储罐已经满了,让石油公司不顾一切地出售剩余的油桶。在包括英国在内的其他地区,油价仍在零以上,部分原因是他们面临着较低的运输成本和更容易进入港口。尽管如此,没有一个石油市场能够幸免于难。国际基准油价,即布伦特原油,仍在每桶20美元以上,但自1月以来已跌去三分之二,跌至18年低点。



acute


表示“严峻的”,英文解释为“You can use acute to indicate that an undesirable situation or feeling is very severe or intense.”举个🌰:

There is an acute shortage of water.

水严重短缺。



desperate


表示“极度渴望的”,英文解释为“If you are desperate for something or desperate to do something, you want or need it very much indeed.”举个🌰:

They'd been married nearly three years and she was desperate to start a family.

他们结婚快3年了,她非常想生个孩子。



unscathed


unscathed /ʌnˈskeɪðd/ 表示“未受伤的;未受伤害的”,英文解释为“If you are unscathed after a dangerous experience, you have not been injured or harmed by it.”举个🌰:

He emerged unscathed apart from a severely bruised finger.

结果除了一个手指严重淤青外,他没受别的伤。



4. What does this mean for petrol prices?

4. 这对汽油价格意味着什么?


Petrol prices are likely to fall sharply this year due to the sudden collapse of oil prices and the long road to market recovery that probably lies ahead. But it is worth keeping in mind that the price paid at the pump is not a perfect reflection of the oil markets because petrol and diesel prices include government taxes and a profit margin for the seller. The negative oil prices seen in the US will be short-lived, so no one should expect to be paid for filling up their car.


由于油价突然崩盘,今年汽油价格很可能会大幅下跌,而市场复苏的道路可能还很漫长。但值得注意的是,在油站支付的价格并不是石油市场的完美反映,因为汽油和柴油价格包括了政府的税收和卖方的利润空间。在美国看到的负油价将是短暂的,所以大家都不应该指望给自己的车加满油,就能拿到钱。



profit margin


表示“利润率;利润空间”,英文解释为“A profit margin is the difference between the selling price of a product and the cost of producing and marketing it.”举个🌰:

The group had a net profit margin of 15% last year. 

该集团去年的净利润空间为15%。



5. Are prices likely to recover?

5. 价格是否有可能恢复?


Yes, and quite quickly. The negative US oil price referred specifically to the price for crude delivered in May, the month in which oil demand is expected to be lowest and supplies are expected to be highest. From Tuesday, oil traders will begin trading barrels for delivery in June in earnest, and these are expected to fetch far higher prices. A meaningful recovery of oil market prices will depend on how quickly demand for transport fuels increases – a speedy end to lockdown would accelerate a market price recovery, but a slow emergence from the Covid-19 crisis could mean further financial pain for oil producers until 2021.


有,而且相当快。美国油价的负值是指5月份交付的原油价格,5月份的原油需求预计最低,供应预计最高。从周二开始,石油交易商将开始认真地进行6月份交割的油桶交易,预计这些油价将远高于市场价格。石油市场价格能否有意义的复苏,将取决于运输燃料需求的增长速度---迅速结束封锁将加速市场价格的复苏,但如果缓慢地摆脱Covid-19危机可能意味着石油生产商在2021年之前将面临更多的财务痛苦。



fetch


表示“卖得”,英文解释为“If something fetches a particular sum of money, it is sold for that amount.”举个🌰:

The painting is expected to fetch between two and three million dollars.

这幅画预计能卖到两百到三百万美元。


有一家海外购的平台就叫做farfetch,是不是很好记。



- 相关阅读 -

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什么是熔断机制?

什么是「才思汇」?



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