前沿｜American Journal of Political Science（美国政治科学杂志）2019.04
本期政治学人国际化部推介《美国政治科学杂志》（American Journal of Political Science）2019年第4期文章编译，以飨读者。欢迎关注与评论！注意：
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期刊简介
American Journal of Political Science（美国政治科学杂志）是美国中西部政治学协会（MPSA）旗下学术期刊，目前由威立出版社代为出版。创刊于1973年，出版周期为每年4期，收录与政治科学相关的所有子领域。IF：4.515
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：政治理论研究、政治学方法论、比较政治学、国际关系等。
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期刊目录
Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub-Saharan Africa
气温是外生的吗?内战对撒哈拉以南非洲地区仪器气候记录的影响
Alien Citizens and the Canonical Immigrant: Do Stigmatized Attributes Affect Latina/o Judgment about Discrimination?
外籍公民与合法移民：污名化会影响拉美族裔对歧视的判断吗?
Do Inheritance Customs Affect Political and Social Inequality?
继承制度会影响政治和社会的不平等吗?
Republican Freedom, Popular Control, and Collective Action
共和政体的自由、大众控制和集体行为
Ideology Justifies Morality: Political Beliefs Predict Moral Foundations
意识形态证成道德：由政治信仰预测道德基础
Tuning In, Not Turning Out: Evaluating the Impact of Ethnic Television on Political Participation
收看，但不参与：关于族裔电视台对政治参与影响的评估
How Getting the Facts Right Can Fuel Partisan-Motivated Reasoning
获取正确事实的方式能够强化政党支持者的归因
Peacekeepers against Criminal Violence—Unintended Effects of Peacekeeping Operations?
维和人员与暴力犯罪：维和行动的意外影响
Poverty and Divine Rewards: The Electoral Advantage of Islamist Political Parties
贫穷和神圣的恩赐：伊斯兰政党的选举优势
Discursive Exit
话语退场
Do Voters Polarize When Radical Parties Enter Parliament?
当激进政党进入议会时选民会两极分化吗?
The Party’s Primary Preferences: Race, Gender, and Party Support of Congressional Primary Candidates
政党初选时的偏好：种族、性别与政党对国会初选候选人的支持
Ballot Reform as Suffrage Restriction: Evidence from Brazil’s Second Republic
如同限制选举权的选票改革：以巴西第二共和国为证
Loss Aversion in Politics
政治中的损失规避
Committed or Conditional Democrats? Opposition Dynamics in Electoral Autocracies
坚定的，还是有条件的民主派? 论选举式威权政体中反对派的流变
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精选译文
01 气温是外生的吗？内战对撒哈拉以南非洲地区仪器气候记录的影响
题目：
Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub-Saharan Africa
作者：
KENNETH A. SCHULTZ，Stanford University
JUSTIN MANKIN，Dartmouth College
LAMONT-DOHERTY，Columbia University
摘要：
针对气候对政治和经济结果影响情况的有关研究通常认为，天气的短期变化是所研究现象的外生因素。然而，气象数据来自由各国政府运营的气象站，而政府本身的能力和稳定性也会影响到气象数据的质量和覆盖范围的连续性。本文指出，首先撒哈拉以南非洲地区的内战风险与一个国家气象站的数量和密度呈负相关。这种影响在横向和纵向对比中均有体现。通过横向对比，冲突风险较高的国家的气象站覆盖范围往往较小。同时，纵向对比表明，内战会导致气象站的减少。其次，由于东英吉利大学气候研究室（CRU）在其研究中所采用的插值方法，较小的覆盖范围数值不但会引起在其被广泛使用的气温数据集中的一个细微的低估偏差，同时也会增加测量误差，潜在地减少了对于气温和冲突关系的估计值。最后，为了减少测量误差，本研究结合了多个观测数据集后发现，反常气温对于内战风险影响的估计值几乎翻倍。
Research into the effects of climate on political and economic outcomes assumes that short-term variation in weather is exogenous to the phenomena being studied. However, weather data are derived from stations operated by national governments, whose political capacity and stability affect the quality and continuity of coverage. We show that civil conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa is negatively correlated with the number and density of weather stations contributing to a country’s temperature record. This effect is both cross-sectional—countries with higher average conflict risk tend to have poorer coverage—and cross-temporal—civil conflict leads to loss of weather stations. Poor coverage induces a small downward bias in one widely used temperature data set, due to its interpolation method, and increases measurement error, potentially attenuating estimates of the temperature-conflict relationship. Combining multiple observational data sets to reduce measurement error almost doubles the estimated effect of temperature anomalies on civil conflict risk.
02 外籍公民与合法移民：污名化会影响拉美族裔对歧视的判断吗?
题目：
Alien Citizens and the Canonical Immigrant: Do Stigmatized Attributes Affect Latina/o Judgment about Discrimination?
作者：
BRADFORD JONES，University of California
KRISTINA FLORES VICTOR，California State University
DAVID VANNETTE，University of California
摘要：
近年来各界精英和媒体对于拉美族裔问题——尤其是非法移民问题的负面关注迅速增加，潜在地使带有拉美特征的移民地位和语言使用污名化。并且，移民政策的变化导致了对拉美族裔移民大规模的逮捕和驱逐。于此本文提出两个研究问题：一、拉美族裔在多大程度上感知并经历了歧视? 二、移民身份、代际状况和使用的语言在多大程度上塑造了他们对于歧视的看法? 根据皮尤全国拉美族裔调查数据，本文发现拉美族裔对歧视问题的看法是一个与以西班牙语为主的第一代移民相近程度有关的递减函数。此外，本文证明了因歧视而受害的报导率并无明显规律，并且随时间的推移会趋于平稳。本文的结论是，拉美族裔对歧视的看法会对其系统性的信任、焦虑以及政策偏好产生重要影响。Negative elite and news media attention to Latino-relevant issues, particularly undocumented immigration, has dramatically increased in recent years, potentially stigmatizing attributes of Latinos such as immigration status and language use. Concomitantly, immigration policy changes were leading to widespread arrests and deportation of many Latinos. Herein, we ask two questions: First, to what extent do Latinos perceive and experience discrimination? Second, to what extent do immigration status, generational status, and language use moderate beliefs about discrimination? Using Pew National Survey of Latinos data, we find that Latino beliefs about the problem of discrimination is a decreasing function of “proximity” to the “canonical immigrant”—defined here as first-generation immigrants who are Spanish-language dominant. Further, we demonstrate that reported rates of victimization due to discrimination exhibit no clear pattern and are flat over time. We conclude by demonstrating that discrimination beliefs have significant implications for systemic trust, anxiety, and policy preferences.
03 继承制度会影响政治和社会的不平等吗?
题目：
Do Inheritance Customs Affect Political and Social Inequality?
作者：
ANSELM HAGER，University of Konstanz
HANNO HILBIG，Harvard University
摘要：
为何有的社会相比其他社会更不平等? 法国的革命者认为，是兄弟姐妹之间不平等的继承制造就了——以往政权中严格的等级制度。因此法国的革命者要求加强平等的继承权从而达到真正的平等。他们的目标包括赋权女性和剔除贵族的特权。但继承上的平等真能促进社会竞争的平等吗? 对于这个研究问题，我们选取了德国作为研究的对象，原因有二。一是德国各地的继承制度存在不少差异，二是我们发现，那些历史上就致力于平等分配财富的城市在如今也会有更高的女性参政率和更少的处于精英阶层的“二代”们。根据历史数据，我们发现了两种机制。一是财富平等，二是亲“平等主义者”的偏好。最后本文发现，平等的继承制和不平等的收入之间存在着出乎意料的正相关。我们认为这是由于平等的继承制使得人们获得财富的原因由社会身份转变为了自身才华。Why are some societies more unequal than others? The French revolutionaries believed unequal inheritances among siblings to be responsible for the strict hierarchies of the ancien régime. To achieve equality, the revolutionaries therefore enforced equal inheritance rights. Their goal was to empower women and to disenfranchise the noble class. But do equal inheritances succeed in leveling the societal playing field? We study Germany—a country with pronounced local-level variation in inheritance customs—and find that municipalities that historically equally apportioned wealth, to this day, elect more women into political councils and have fewer aristocrats in the social elite. Using historic data, we point to two mechanisms: wealth equality and pro-egalitarian preferences. In a final step, we also show that, counterintuitively, equitable inheritance customs positively predict income inequality. We interpret this finding to mean that equitable inheritances level the playing field by rewarding talent, not status.
04 共和政体的自由、大众控制和集体行为
题目：
Republican Freedom, Popular Control, and Collective Action
作者：
SEAN INGHAM，University of California San Diego
FRANK LOVETT，Washington University in St. Louis
摘要：
共和主义者认为他人所拥有的不受限制到足以影响人们选择的能力就是人们被统治的根源。他们进一步指出，除非大众对此有所控制，否则政府官员就有支配民众的可能。批评者针对这一观点提出了一个困境。如果仅仅由于民众可能会合作，共和政体就必须赋予它的民众以控制政府官员的能力来维持这种大众控制的可能性。那么当民众的这种合力足以赋能其他团体的时候，即使乐观地看，也会有不计其数的团体将占据统治地位，因为彼时这些团体的成员也共同具有了影响他人决定的能力。笔者认为这只是表面上的困境。为了论证这一观点，我们运用了一个能够解释集体行为对共和主义理论影响的博弈论模型，对共和政体的统治概念做了一个全新的阐释。Republicans hold that people are dominated merely in virtue of others’ having unconstrained abilities to frustrate their choices. They argue further that public officials may dominate citizens unless subject to popular control. Critics identify a dilemma. To maintain the possibility of popular control, republicans must attribute to the people an ability to control public officials merely in virtue of the possibility that they might coordinate their actions. But if the possibility of coordination suffices for attributing abilities to groups, then, even in the best case, countless groups will be dominating because it will be possible for their members to coordinate their actions with the aim of frustrating others’ choices. We argue the dilemma is apparent only. To make our argument, we present a novel interpretation of the republican concept of domination with the help of a game-theoretic model that clarifies the significance of collective action problems for republican theory.
05 意识形态证成道德：由政治信仰预测道德基础
题目：
Ideology Justifies Morality: Political Beliefs Predict Moral Foundations
作者：
PETER K. HATEMI，The Pennsylvania State University
CHARLES CRABTREE，Dartmouth College
KEVIN B. SMITH，University of Nebraska–Lincoln
摘要：
被用作意识形态因果解释的道德基础理论(Moral Foundations Theory, MFT)假定政治看法是道德直觉的产物。然而先前的理论模型却提出了相反的因果解释路径，即道德判断为政治信仰所左右。但现存的研究对于这两种因果关系都只是假设性的，缺少明确的检验。所以到底是道德直觉影响了政治信仰，还是政治信仰左右了道德直觉? 对于这个问题，我们使用了两个小组的研究数据和一个具有全国代表性的研究的数据，发现了能够证明是由意识形态确定道德直觉的这一假设的证据。这一发现挑战了作为一种意识形态理论存在的道德基础理论，同时也支持了“政治信仰对个人是非观的塑造十分重要”这一论断。Moral Foundations Theory (MFT) is employed as a causal explanation of ideology that posits political attitudes are products of moral intuitions. Prior theoretical models, however, suggest the opposite causal path, that is, that moral judgments are driven by political beliefs. In both instances, however, extant research has assumed rather than explicitly tested for causality. So do moral intuitions drive political beliefs or do political beliefs drive moral intuitions? We empirically address this question using data from two panel studies and one nationally representative study, and find consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that ideology predicts moral intuitions. The findings have significant implications for MFT as a theory of ideology, and also about the consequences of political beliefs for shaping how individuals rationalize what is right and what is wrong.
06 收看，但不参与：关于族裔电视台对政治参与影响的评估
题目：
Tuning In, Not Turning Out: Evaluating the Impact of Ethnic Television on Political Participation
作者：
YAMIL RICARDO VELEZ，George Washington University
BENJAMIN J. NEWMAN，University of California–Riverside
摘要：
尽管族裔电视台在移民社区的重要性不言而喻，但其对于政治参与的影响仍不明朗。一方面，族裔媒体可以动员和通知选民。另一方面，它也可用于分散和削弱选民政治参与的意愿。我们使用了两个州的西班牙语电视台在联邦通讯委员会接收边界的数据，并用地理边界对其进行了断点回归分析(GRD)，来评估这两种对立的假设。此外，我们利用三个具有族裔代表性的拉丁裔样本复现了我们GRD的分析结果。通过多重研究方法，我们发现收看西班牙语电视和投票率、社会参与和政治知识成负相关。最后，我们讨论了这些发现对于有关族裔政治、政治传播和社会资本的文献的意义。Despite the importance of ethnic television within immigrant communities, its effects on political participation are unclear. On the one hand, ethnic media can mobilize and inform voters. On the other hand, it can serve as a source of diversion and reduce the desire to participate. To evaluate these competing possibilities, we implement a geographic regression discontinuity (GRD) approach involving Federal Communication Commission reception boundaries for Spanish-language television stations in two states. Additionally, we replicate and unpack our GRD analyses using three nationally representative samples of Latinos. Across multiple studies, we find that access to Spanish-language television is associated with decreases in turnout, ethnic civic participation, and political knowledge. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings on the ethnic politics, political communication, and social capital literatures.
07 获取正确事实的方式能够强化政党支持者的归因
题目：
How Getting the Facts Right Can Fuel Partisan-Motivated Reasoning
作者：
MARTIN BISGAARD，Aarhus University
摘要：
学者们经常通过民众获得有关事实的能力来评估他们参与民主的能力，本文展示了为什么这种方法会导致对民众参政能力的错误评估。笔者认为虽然那些共和党和民主党坚定的支持者可能会不得不接受同样的事实，但是他们也会去寻找其他的方式来使之合理化。其中的一个方法就是有选择性的归功和归过。通过四个在不同国家开展的、同时包含封闭式和开放式问题的随机试验，笔者发现当两党各自坚定的支持者在接受新的经济观点时，会以一种相反的、极具政党倾向性的方式来归责。尽管双方政党的坚定支持者会接受同样的事实，但是他们也更倾向于寻找或者创造一些符合他们世界观的论据来归因。Scholars often evaluate citizens’ democratic competence by focusing on their ability to get relevant facts right. In this article, I show why this approach can yield misleading conclusions about citizen competence. I argue that although citizens with strong partisan loyalties might be forced to accept the same facts, they find alternative ways to rationalize reality. One such way, I show, is through the selective attribution of credit and blame. With four randomized experiments, conducted in diverse national settings and containing closed- as well as open-ended questions, I find that as partisans correctly updated economic beliefs to reflect new facts, they conversely attributed responsibility in a highly selective fashion. Although partisans might acknowledge the same facts, they are apt in seizing on and producing attributional arguments that fit their preferred world views.
08 维和人员与暴力犯罪：维和行动的意外影响
题目：
Peacekeepers against Criminal Violence—Unintended Effects of Peacekeeping Operations?
作者：
JESSICA DI SALVATORE，University of Warwick
摘要：
研究表明维和人员能够减轻冲突的程度。然而，维和人员的部署对于由非政治因素引起的暴力的影响仍然是未知的。本文聚焦于暴力犯罪，并提出了一种双重机制来解释为什么即使是有效地减少了冲突的维和行动却反过来会滋生暴力犯罪。首先，较少的冲突会带来经济发展的机会（也就是所谓的“维和经济”）。但同时较少的冲突也会为有组织的犯罪行为提供一个安全的行动环境，因此反而加剧了犯罪集团之间的暴力竞争。其次，由于有限的合法谋生机会和在战时受到过的训练，使得复员后的士兵很容易走上犯罪的道路。尽管联合国派出的维和部队有加剧这些问题的可能性，但联合国警察的特殊身份也很有可能成功地抑制暴力。国家层面和地方层面的实证分析均表明，总体而言，大规模的联合国军部署会导致更高的凶杀率，但于此同时联合国警察则会中和掉这些副作用。Research shows that peacekeepers reduce conflict intensity; however, effects of deployment on nonpolitical violence are unknown. This article focuses on criminal violence and proposes a twofold mechanism to explain why peacekeeping missions, even when effectively reducing conflict, can inadvertently increase criminal violence. First, less conflict opens up economic opportunities (so-called peacekeeping economies) and provides operational security for organized crime, thus increasing violent competition among criminal groups. Second, demobilized combatants are vulnerable to turn to crime because of limited legal livelihood opportunities and their training in warfare. While UN troops may exacerbate these dynamics, UN police’s peculiar role is likely to successfully contain criminal violence. Cross-national and subnational empirical analyses show that large UN military deployments result in higher homicide rates, whereas UN police, overall, moderate this collateral effect.
09 贫穷和神圣的恩赐：伊斯兰政党的选举优势
题目：
Poverty and Divine Rewards: The Electoral Advantage of Islamist Political Parties
作者：
SHARAN GREWAL，Brookings Institution
AMANEY A. JAMAL，Princeton University
TAREK MASOUD，Harvard Kennedy School
ELIZABETH R. NUGENT，Yale University
摘要：
在穆斯林占多数的国家，伊斯兰政党在选举中占据主导地位是其政治生活的显著特征。最近有研究试图从物质和组织的角度来解释伊斯兰政党的成功，如它们提供的社会服务。本文回顾了一篇强调政党的宗教性质对有经济困难的选民的吸引力的既有文献。经济困难的个人投给伊斯兰政党的原因可能是他们相信这是一件能在来世获得安拉赏赐的真正的善行。通过一系列在突尼斯的实验，笔者验证了上述假设。作为对照组，有经济压力的个人对于伊斯兰政党表现出了更大的支持。而这一因果关系中的中介变量就是对于来世得到安拉补偿的期望值。这一证据表明伊斯兰政党的宗教性质可能是其选举成功的一个重要因素。Political life in many Muslim-majority countries has been marked by the electoral dominance of Islamist parties. Recent attempts to explain why have highlighted their material and organizational factors, such as the provision of social services. In this article, we revive an older literature that emphasizes the appeal of these parties’ religious nature to voters experiencing economic hardship. Individuals suffering economic strain may vote for Islamists because they believe this to be an intrinsically virtuous act that will be met with divine rewards in the afterlife. We explore this hypothesis through a series of laboratory experiments in Tunisia. Individuals assigned to treatment conditions instilling feelings of economic strain exhibit greater support for Islamist parties, and this support is causally mediated by an expectation of divine compensation in the hereafter. The evidence suggests that the religious nature of Islamist parties may thus be an important factor in their electoral success.
10 话语退场
题目：
Discursive Exit
作者：
LAURA MONTANARO，University of Essex
摘要：
当激进的观点获得政治合法性时，选民们的意识形态会两极分化吗?抑或越来越多激进的观点仅仅反映了社会的冲突?笔者认为激进的政党首次进入议会显示了精英阶层的极化，这种现象导致了选民们在意识形态上的分歧。选举一结束，支持和反对的结果都意味着两派意识形态阵营里的选民会走向极端。长远来看，激进政党的存在会进一步巩固这种两极分化。一项针对荷兰选民的定群研究显示，2002年一个右翼的激进政党进入议会后确实立即导致了政治光谱中意识形态的两极分化。通过对17国自1973至2016年间的民调数据进行时间序列截面模型的估计，笔者发现激进右翼政党的加入还会对极化产生额外的长期影响。右翼激进观点所具有的极化效应显示了制度认可和合法化所具有的长久的社会影响力。Do voters polarize ideologically when radical views gain political legitimacy, or does the rise of radical voices merely reflect societal conflict? We argue that elite polarization as signaled by radical parties’ first entrance into parliament leads to voter divergence. Immediately after the election, legitimization and backlash effects mean that voters on both ideological sides move toward the extremes. In the longer term, this polarization is solidified because of radical parties’ parliamentary presence. A panel study of Dutch voters shows that the 2002 parliamentary entrance of a radical-right party indeed led to immediate ideological polarization across the political spectrum. Estimating time-series cross-sectional models on Eurobarometer data from17 countries (1973–2016) shows an additional long-term impact of radical-right party entry on polarization. The presence of radical voices on the right has polarizing effects, illustrating how such institutional recognition and legitimization can have a far-reaching impact on society.
11 当激进政党进入议会时选民会两极分化吗?
题目：
Do Voters Polarize When Radical Parties Enter Parliament?
作者：
DANIEL BISHOF，University of Zurich
MARKUS WAGNER，University of Vienna
摘要：
当激进的观点获得政治合法性时，选民们的意识形态会两极分化吗?抑或越来越多激进的观点仅仅反映了社会的冲突?笔者认为激进的政党首次进入议会显示了精英阶层的极化，这种现象导致了选民们在意识形态上的分歧。选举一结束，支持和反对的结果都意味着两派意识形态阵营里的选民会走向极端。长远来看，激进政党的存在会进一步巩固这种两极分化。一项针对荷兰选民的定群研究显示，2002年一个右翼的激进政党进入议会后确实立即导致了政治光谱中意识形态的两极分化。通过对17国自1973至2016年间的民调数据进行时间序列截面模型的估计，笔者发现激进右翼政党的加入还会对极化产生额外的长期影响。右翼激进观点所具有的极化效应显示了制度认可和合法化所具有的长久的社会影响力。Do voters polarize ideologically when radical views gain political legitimacy, or does the rise of radical voices merely reflect societal conflict? We argue that elite polarization as signaled by radical parties’ first entrance into parliament leads to voter divergence. Immediately after the election, legitimization and backlash effects mean that voters on both ideological sides move toward the extremes. In the longer term, this polarization is solidified because of radical parties’ parliamentary presence. A panel study of Dutch voters shows that the 2002 parliamentary entrance of a radical-right party indeed led to immediate ideological polarization across the political spectrum. Estimating time-series cross-sectional models on Eurobarometer data from17 countries (1973–2016) shows an additional long-term impact of radical-right party entry on polarization. The presence of radical voices on the right has polarizing effects, illustrating how such institutional recognition and legitimization can have a far-reaching impact on society.
12 政党初选时的偏好：种族、性别与政党对国会初选候选人的支持
题目：
The Party’s Primary Preferences: Race, Gender, and Party Support of Congressional Primary Candidates
作者：
HANS J.G. HASSELL，Florida State University
NEIL VISALVANICH，Durham University
摘要：
政党对其初选候选人的支持十分重要，但初选时政党的行为是否受种族或性别偏见的影响仍不得而知。通过分析国会候选人的人口数据以及政党对其初选候选人的支持程度，笔者检验了政党是否会歧视女性和少数族裔候选人，也检验了政党是否会在一些特定的初选中策略性地支持少数族裔的候选人。本文发现，政党并不对少数族裔的候选人带有偏见，同时白人女性候选人在民主党内会比其他类型的候选人获得更多的党内支持。此外，政党并不会在少数族裔聚集地区策略性地支持少数族裔候选人。最后，我们还发现无论种族或性别为何，政党支持对于候选人初选成功率的影响并无显著区别。Party support has a strong influence on candidate success in the primary. What remains unexplored is whether party actions during the primary are biased along racial and gender lines. Using candidate demographic data at the congressional level and measures of party support for primary candidates, we test whether parties discriminate against women and minority candidates in congressional primaries and also whether parties are strategic in their support of minority candidates in certain primaries. Our findings show parties are not biased against minority candidates and also that white women candidates receive more support from the Democratic Party than do other types of candidates. Our findings also suggest that parties do not appear to strategically support minority candidates in districts with larger populations of minorities. Lastly, we also find no significant differences in the effects of party support on the likelihood of success in the primary by candidate race or gender.
13 如同限制选举权的选票改革：以巴西第二共和国为证
题目：
Ballot Reform as Suffrage Restriction: Evidence from Brazil’s Second Republic
作者：
DANIEL W. GINGERICH，University of Virginia
摘要：
很少有民主制度设计的创新行为能像将官方统一的无记名投票方式引入选举一样具有十分重要的影响。一种解释是这种官方投票方式能将选民从他们对当地精英的依赖中解放出来，从而加剧民主选举时的竞争。另一种观点却认为，由于文盲现象的普遍，这种投票方式几乎就是一种对于选举权利的限制。本文通过对巴西第二共和国时期(1945–1964)市政议会选举的原始数据的分析，讨论比较了这两个观点。在此期间，选票交叉展示的独特方式使得对其影响的估计具有前所未有的准确性。本文发现，选票改革最大的后果就是选举权的实际受限。官方的投票方式非但没有把那些贫困和不够自主的选民解放出来，反而使得这些个体更难参与投票。不仅如此，议会中的辩论显示了这竟然是选票改革希望达到的效果。Few innovations in democratic institutional design are considered as fundamental as the introduction of voting through the use of a uniform, official, and secret ballot. One account claims that the official ballot liberates dependent voters from the dictates of local elites, thereby enhancing democratic competition. Another argues that in contexts of widespread illiteracy, its adoption may be tantamount to a suffrage restriction. This article adjudicates between these views by drawing upon an original data set of municipal-level voting returns from Brazil’s Second Republic (1945–1964). The unique staggered rollout of the official ballot during this period permits one to assess its impact with unprecedented accuracy. The article finds that the primary consequence of ballot reform was suffrage restriction. Rather than liberating poor and dependent voters, the official ballot made it exceedingly difficult for these individuals to vote. Moreover, parliamentary debates indicate that this was an anticipated and intended effect of the reform.
14 政治中的损失规避
题目：
Loss Aversion in Politics
作者：
ALBERTO ALESINA，Harvard University
FRANCESCO PASSARELLI，University of Turin
摘要：
笔者们通过对中间选民模型(在仅有两名候选人的选举中会完全收敛)和关于政策建议的局部散度模型的研究来讨论有关政治中损失规避的问题。首先，本文提出了现状偏见、禀赋效应以及政策的调节效应。其次，本文展示了伴随着支持左翼或右翼的独立运动，会出现的所谓“长周期”的政策现象。最后，笔者们证明了较年轻的社会相较于更年老的社会，会更倾向于有所改变，受现状偏见的影响也更小。We study loss aversion in elections by investigating a median voter model (full convergence in a two-candidate election) and a model of partial divergence of policy proposals. First, we show a status quo bias, an endowment effect, and a moderating effect of policies. Second, we show the occurrence of “long-term cycles” in policies with self-supporting movements to the right or the left. Finally, we prove that younger societies should be more prone to change and less affected by the status quo bias than older ones.
15 坚定的，还是有条件的民主派? 论选举式威权政体中反对派的流变
题目：
Committed or Conditional Democrats? Opposition Dynamics in Electoral Autocracies
作者：
JENNIFER GANDHI Emory University
ELVIN ONG University of British Columbia
摘要：
在选举式威权政体中，反对党们的结盟是其向民主政体转型的最大希望。然而，组建选举联盟也意味着需要说服支持反对党的选民为了胜选忽略妥协并进行跨党派的投票。在可能导致自己不愿意看到的结果发生的情况下，选民会在何种程度上团结一致地想打败在任的威权统治者?在马来西亚进行的一项调查实验发现，绝大多数反对派选民支持反对派间的结盟。但是，当面对有关哪个反对党可能会领导下一届政府的问题时，许多选民又变得不支持了。具体来说，当选民最不喜欢的党派有可能控制政府时，或当选民可以投票给意识形态更接近自身但却不属于这个联盟的其他政党时，选民们对结盟的支持程度就会下降。尽管选民们支持反对派的结盟和向民主转型，但这种支持十分容易受到最后到底是哪一个反对党获胜的影响。In electoral autocracies, opposition coalition formation offers the best hope of getting to democracy. Yet forming electoral coalitions also entails convincing opposition voters to ignore compromises and engage in the cross-party voting necessary for opposition victory. To what extent are voters committed to defeating the autocratic incumbent even if it would result in dislikable outcomes? A survey experiment in Malaysia finds that opposition voters overwhelmingly express pretreatment support for the opposition coalition. But when exposed to a treatment vignette about which member party might lead the next government, many voters retract their support. Specifically, voters’ support for the coalition declines when their least preferred member is expected to control the government and when they can vote for a closer ideological alternative outside of the coalition. Although voters are committed to opposition unity and democratic transition, that commitment is sensitive to the anticipated consequences of an opposition victory.
编 译：陈佳林
校 对：俞驰韬
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