顶刊前沿 | American Journal of Political Science（美国政治科学杂志）2020.01
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本期国际化部为大家带来了《美国政治科学杂志》2020年第1期文章编译。
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PART
一
期刊简介
American Journal of Political Science（美国政治科学杂志）是美国中西部政治学协会（MPSA）旗下学术期刊，目前由威立出版社代为出版。创刊于1973年，出版周期为每年4期，收录与政治科学相关的所有子领域。IF：4.515，在176种政治科学期刊中排名第2.
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：政治理论研究、政治学方法论、比较政治学、国际关系等。
PART
二
期刊目录
More Effective Than We Thought: Accounting for Legislative Hitchhikers Reveals a More Inclusive and Productive Lawmaking Process
超乎想象的有效：对立法中“搭便车”效应的解释揭示了一种更包容和高效的立法过程
The Moderating Effect of Debates on Political Attitudes
选举人辩论对政治态度的调节作用
Offsetting Uncertainty: Reassurance with Two-Sided Incomplete Information
抵消不确定性：具有双侧不完整信息的安全感
Women’s Authority in Patriarchal Social Movements: The Case of Female Salafi Preachers
父权制社会运动中的妇女权威：以女性萨拉夫传教士为例
The Declining Value of Revolving-Door Lobbyists: Evidence from the American States
“旋转门说客”的贬值：以美国为例
The Well-Ordered Society under Crisis: A Formal Analysis of Public Reason vs. Convergence Discourse
危机下的良性社会：对公共理性与趋同性话语的形式分析
Measuring Trade Profile with Granular Product-Level Data
以产品粒度数据测量贸易概况
Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?
公众支持有助于民主生存吗？
The Incidental Pundit: Who Talks Politics with Whom, and Why?
偶然的权威：谁与谁在谈论政治，他们为什么谈论政治？
The Political Importance of Financial Performance
财务绩效的政治重要性
Does the @realDonaldTrump Really Matter to Financial Markets?
特朗普总统的推特@realDonaldTrump是否真的对金融市场重要？
Cosmopolitan Patriotism as a Civic Ideal
作为公民理想的世界性爱国主义
PART
三
精选译文
01 超乎想象的有效：对立法中“搭便车”效应的解释揭示了一种更包容和高效的立法过程
【题目】
More Effective Than We Thought: Accounting for Legislative Hitchhikers Reveals a More Inclusive and Productive Lawmaking Process
【作者】
Andreu Casas, New York University
Matthew J. Denny, Pennsylvania State University
John Wilkerson, University of Washington
【摘要】
半个多世纪以来，学者们一直在研究立法效力中使用单一指标，即成员所倡议的法案在立法过程中是否有所进展。我们研究了一种不那么传统的效力形式，就是那些基于其他法案的条文而最终成功成为法律的提案。将这些“搭便车”的法案视作法案倡议成功的补充案例揭示了一种更加高效率，层级更加扁平化，同时也更少具有党派倾向性的立法过程。我们认为议程和程序上的限制对于理解为什么立法者会采取“搭便车”的策略至关重要。我们也研究了那些吸引“搭便车”者的立法手段，并发现在排除了其他因素的情况下，更多的参议院法案是众议院法律的“搭便车”法案，而不是基于自身的法案。
For more than half a century, scholars have been studying legislative effectiveness using a single metric—whether the bills a member sponsors progress through the legislative process. We investigate a less orthodox form of effectiveness- bill proposals that become law as provisions of other bills. Counting these “hitchhiker” bills as additional cases of bill sponsorship success reveals a more productive, less hierarchical, and less partisan lawmaking process. We argue that agenda and procedural constraints are central to understanding why lawmakers pursue hitchhiker strategies. We also investigate the legislative vehicles that attract hitchhikers and find, among other things, that more Senate bills are enacted as hitchhikers on House laws than become law on their own.
02 选举人辩论对政治态度的调节作用
【题目】
The Moderating Effect of Debates on Political Attitudes
【作者】
Sarah Brierley, London School of Economics and Political Science
Eric Kramon, George Washington University
George Kwaku Ofosu, London School of Economics and Political Science
【摘要】
从理论上来说，选民可以通过选举人辩论得知候选人的个人素质和政治立场，从而影响他们的投票。然而，关于辩论是否可以，以及为什么可以影响新民主国家选民的相关证据十分有限。我们在加纳2016年大选期间对其议会辩论进行了田野调查，结果表明选举人辩论能改善选民对候选人的评价。辩论对具有党派倾向性的选民影响最大，会使得这些选民更喜欢对方阵营的候选人并给其投票，同时减少其对己方阵营候选人的支持。通过实验数据和观察数据，我们捕获了参与者对于辩论的第二反应，结果显示政策信息是使得具有党派倾向性的选民改变态度的最重要因素。这一特征尤其在那些强烈支持者的身上体现得尤为明显。后续的调查研究显示，这些效应在那些选民分立对峙的社区也持续存在，但是在政党倾向性鲜明的地方影响并不显著。以政策为主的候选人辩论有可能能够弱化新民主国家的党派极化，但是当地具体的政治状况制约了这些效应的持续影响。
In theory candidate debates can influence voters by providing information about candidates’ quality and policy positions. However, there is limited evidence about whether and why debates influence voters in new democracies. We use a field experiment on parliamentary debates during Ghana s 2016 elections to show that debates improve voters’ evaluations of candidates. Debates have the strongest effect on partisan voters, who become more favorable toward and more likely to vote for opponent-party candidates and less likely to vote for co-partisans. Experimental and unique observational data capturing participants second-by-second reactions to the debates show that policy information was the most important causal mechanism driving partisan moderation, especially among strong artisans. A follow-up survey shows that these effects persist in electorally competitive communities, whereas they dissipate in party strongholds. Policy-centered debates have the potential to reduce partisan polarization in new democracies, but the local political context conditions the persistence of these effects.
03 抵消不确定性：具有双侧不完整信息的安全感
【题目】
Offsetting Uncertainty: Reassurance with Two-Sided Incomplete Information
【作者】
Kyle Haynes, Purdue University
Brandon K. Yoder, Australian National University
【摘要】
在信息不完整的情况下，传统协商-安全感模型假定人们的行为能够从客观层面上显示他们的合作与不合作。即使行为者并不确定对方的偏好，他们也知道对方会把哪种类型的行为认为是合作的。然而在现实世界的许多情况下，合作是主观的。构成合作行为的要素取决于信息接收方的偏好。我们提供了一个正式的模型，表明在这些情况下双侧的不完整信息事实上会激励诚实的行为，并促进可靠的信号传递。因为不确定的传递者不知道一个特定行为是否会被认为是合作行为，所以他们几乎没有动机去歪曲表达，而是诚实地表达他们的真实意图。因此，在合作是主观的情况下，相互之间的不确定性会互相抵消，这样可靠的信息能够使参与者能够更加快速准确地知道他们的想法。我们通过对中苏决裂的案例研究来说明这种逻辑，并强调了这个模型对于当代美中关系的启示。
Conventional models of bargaining and reassurance under incomplete information assume that actor’s behavioral signals are objectively cooperative or noncooperative. Even if actors are uncertain of each other’s preferences, they know what types of actions the other will view as cooperative. Yet on many real-world issues, cooperation is subjective, and what constitutes a cooperative action is conditional on the receiver s preferences. We present a formal model showing that in these cases, two-sided incomplete information actually incentivizes honest behavior and facilitates credible signaling. Because uncertain senders do not know whether a particular action will be interpreted as cooperative, they have little incentive to misrepresent, and instead honestly pursue their true goals. Thus, where cooperation is subjective, mutual uncertainty is offsetting, such that credible signals allow actors to quickly and accurately update their beliefs. We illustrate this logic through a case study of the Sino-soviet split, and highlight the models implications for contemporary U.S.-China relations.
04 父权制社会运动中的妇女权威：以女性萨拉夫传教士为例
【题目】
Women’s Authority in Patriarchal Social Movements: The Case of Female Salafi Preachers
【作者】
Richard A. Nielsen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
【摘要】
妇女如何在公共领域获得权威，尤其是在父权制观念盛行的情况下？我认为，父权制中社会运动的领导人在寻找新的社会运动成员时会因为实际的好处来扩大女性的权威。女性权威能够通过有说服力的、基于身份的论点来做到那些男人无法做到的事情，她们也能吸引到男性无法吸引到的新受众，这些都能使父权制运动受益。我通过访谈、分析Twitter，以及在一个面向萨拉夫的网站saaid.net上对21,000条文本（来自172位男性和43位女性）进行自动分析的方法的，探究了女性牧师在伊斯兰萨拉菲运动中的兴起，以此支持这一观点。为了展示这个理论的普适性，我还将其应用于美国当代的白人民族主义运动。研究结果表明，出于务实的政治原因，强化传统性别角色的社会运动是如何增强女性权威的。
How do women gain authority in the public sphere, especially in contexts where patriarchal norms are prevalent? I argue that the leaders of patriarchal social movements face pragmatic incentives to expand women’s authority roles when seeking new movement members. Women authorities help patriarchal movements by making persuasive, identity-based arguments in favor of patriarchy that men cannot, and by reaching new audiences that men cannot. I support this argument by examining the rise of online female preachers in the Islamist Salafi movement, using interviews, Twitter analysis, and automated text analysis of 21, 000 texts by 172 men and 43 women on the Salafi-oriented website saaid.net. To show the theory’s generality, I also apply it to the contemporary white nationalist movement in the United States. The findings illustrate how movements that aggressively enforce traditional gender roles for participants can nevertheless increase female authority for pragmatic political reasons.
05 “旋转门说客”的贬值：以美国为例
【题目】
The Declining Value of Revolving-Door Lobbyists: Evidence from the American States
【作者】
James M. Strickland, Arizona State University
【摘要】
所谓的“旋转门说客”是指那些从政府职位转业到私人企业后进行游说行为的个人。这些说客具有在政府任职期间发展起来的内部关系和相关的政治知识，这些资源使得前任立法者有更多的机会接触并影响到现任立法者。但是，这些说客和政府之间的联系以及政治知识的价值取决于仍旧留在立法机构里面的那些以前的同事。当新的立法工作人员进入议会时，那些和前任成员之间的关系以及知识就会过时并失去其价值。鉴于增加议会的流动性和规模能够创造更多可能进行游说的前任立法者，但是其对于这些前任立法者作为说客的价值有着消极作用。因此，利益集团渐渐地雇佣越来越少的前任立法者作为其说客。例如更长的冷静期或是增加的立法人员资源等其他因素对转业率只有很少的或甚至是没有影响。立法特征在很大程度上决定了前国会议员的转业率。
Abstract “Revolving-door” lobbyists are individuals who transition from governmental positions into lobbying for rate entities. Such lobbyists thrive on the insider connections and political knowledge that they developed while in government. These assets afford former lawmakers more access to and influence over incumbent lawmakers. The value of their connections and knowledge, however, is contingent on former colleagues remaining within the legislature. As new legislators enter the assembly, the connections and knowledge of former members expire and lose value. Whereas increases in turnover or assembly size generate more former lawmakers who might lobby, such increases negatively affect former members value as lobbyists. Interest groups accordingly hire fewer former legislators to lobby. Other factors, such as longer cooling-off periods or increased legislative staff resources, produce slight or no substantive effects on rates of revolving. Legislative characteristics mostly determine rates of revolving for former lawmakers.
06 危机下的良性社会：对公共理性与趋同性话语的形式分析
【题目】
The Well-Ordered Society under Crisis: A Formal Analysis of Public Reason vs. Convergence Discourse
【作者】
Hun Chung, Waseda University
【摘要】
只要有足够数量的不遵从者进入政治体系，一个井然有序的社会就会面临危机。这有可能会破坏自由民主的政治秩序的稳定。本文对公共理性自由主义文献中针对政治稳定问题的两种相互对立的解决方案进行了形式化分析，即使用公共理性或使用趋同话语来恢复秩序井然的社会中的自由民主政治秩序。本文提供的形式分析表明，使用公共理性是完全失败的。本文同时发现，虽然使用趋同话语的效果更好，但是它也有其自身的关键局限性，而这些局限性以前并未得到正确的认识。
A well-ordered society faces a crisis whenever a sufficient number of noncompliers enter into the political system. This has the potential to destabilize liberal democratic political order. This article provides a formal analysis of two competing solutions to the problem of political stability offered in the public reason liberalism literature—namely, using public reason or using convergence discourse to restore liberal democratic political order in the well-ordered society. The formal analyses offered in this article show that using public reason fails completely, and using convergent discourse, although doing better, has its own critical limitations that have not been previously recognized properly.
07 以产品粒度数据测量贸易概况
【题目】
Measuring Trade Profile with Granular Product-Level Data
【作者】
In Song Kim, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Steven Liao, University of California, Riverside
Kosuke Imai, Harvard University
【摘要】
双边贸易的产品组成囊括了关于比较优势、全球生产网络和国内政治的复杂关系。尽管可以获得有关产品等级相关的贸易数据，但大多数研究人员还是基于贸易总量或某些产品的总量而做的研究。在本文中，我们开发了一种新的动态聚类方法，可以有效地汇总大量的产品等级信息。我们所提出的方法根据一组二元组在贸易概况上的相似性（即进出口的产品组成）将其划分为几个类，并捕捉有关所得的产品类别随时间演变的相关信息。我们将此方法应用于有关产品级别的年度贸易流量的二十亿次观测数据。我们展示了典型的二元贸易关系是如何从较少的贸易往来演变为频繁的产业间贸易，然后再发展为产业内贸易的。最后，我们说明了贸易概况测量在国际关系研究中有关贸易竞争的部分所起到的关键作用。
The product composition of bilateral trade encapsulates complex relationships about comparative advantage, global production networks, and domestic politics. Despite the availability of product-level trade data, most researchers rely on either the total volume of trade or certain sets of aggregated products. In this article, we develop a new dynamic clustering method to effectively summarize this massive amount of product-level information. The proposed method classifies a set of dyads into several clusters based on their similarities in trade profile—the product composition of imports and exports—and captures the evolution of the resulting clusters over time. We apply this method to two billion observations of product-level annual trade flows. We show how typical dyadic trade relationships evolve from sparse trade to interindustry trade and then to intra-industry trade. Finally, we illustrate the critical roles of our trade profile measure in international relations research on trade competition.
08 公众支持有助于民主生存吗？
【题目】
Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?
【作者】
Christopher Claassen, University of Glasgow
【摘要】
人们普遍认为民主需要公众的支持才能生存。但是，这种假设的实证证据很薄弱。现有的测试仅停留在小范围样本的横向比较研究上，而且不同的研究之间有着矛盾的结果。潜在的问题是，有关支持民主的调查措施在不同的时间、空间和调查问题中呈现出一种碎片化的状态。作为回应，本文使用贝叶斯潜在变量模型，估计了135个国家/地区(最长达29年)的年度稳定民主支持状况。然后，本文展示了支持对随后的民主变革所具有的积极作用，同时调整了由于先前的民主水平因子和无法观测的不变时间因子这两者对于结果所可能造成的混淆。本文同时发现，民众的支持与民主的持久性之间的联系比民主制度最初出现时更为牢固。正如50年前Lipset(1959)和Easton(1965)所假设的那样，公众支持的确有助于民主的生存。
It is widely believed that democracy requires public support to survive. The empirical evidence for this hypothesis is weak, however, with existing tests resting on small cross-sectional samples and producing contradictory results. The underlying problem is that survey measures of support for democracy are fragmented across time, space, and different survey questions. In response, this article uses a Bayesian latent variable model to estimate a smooth country-year panel of democratic support for 135 countries and up to 29 years. The article then demonstrates a positive effect of support on subsequent democratic change, while adjusting for the possible confounding effects of prior levels of democracy and unobservable time-invariant factors. Support is, moreover, more robustly linked with the endurance of democracy than its emergence in the first place. As Lipset (1959) and Easton (1965) hypothesized over 50 years ago, public support does indeed help democracy survive.
09 偶然的权威：谁与谁在谈论政治，他们为什么谈论政治？
【题目】
The Incidental Pundit: Who Talks Politics with Whom, and Why?
【作者】
William Minozzi, The Ohio State University
Hyunjin Song, University of Vienna
David M. J. Lazer, Northeastern University
Michael A. Neblo, The Ohio State University
Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University
【摘要】
非正式讨论在民主中起着至关重要的作用，但其大部分价值来源于多样性。我们描述了两种政治讨论模式。目的模型认为，人们通常会选择知识渊博且在政治观点上与他们相似的讨论者。偶然模型表明，人们谈论政治主要是出于特殊的原因，是非政治社会过程的副产品。为了对这两种解释进行判断，我们利用了一个囊括了整个网络的、独特的、多站点的面板数据集，其中包含了许多有关社会关系、态度和人口统计信息。与更常见的以自我为中心的方法相比，该数据集为论证提供了更为坚实的基础。我们发现，偶然的讨论过程比有目标的讨论过程对讨论网络的塑造的影响更大。受访者倾向于叙述与他们共享其他关系和特征的讨论者，而不是基于专业知识或政治相似性的讨论者，这表明在政治观点相似的人之外激发政治讨论的可能性比以前想象的要大。
Informal discussion plays a crucial role in democracy, yet much of its value depends on diversity. We describe two models of political discussion. The purposive model holds that people typically select discussants who are knowledgeable and politically similar to them. The incidental model suggests that people talk politics for mostly idiosyncratic reasons, as by-products of nonpolitical social processes. To adjudicate between these accounts, we draw on a unique, multisite, panel data set of whole networks, with information about many social relationships, attitudes, and demographics. This evidence permits a stronger foundation for inferences than more common egocentric methods. We find that incidental processes shape discussion networks much more powerfully than purposive ones. Respondents tended to report discussants with whom they share other relationships and characteristics, rather than based on expertise or political similarity, suggesting that stimulating discussion outside of echo chambers may be easier than previously thought.
10 财务绩效的政治重要性
【题目】
The Political Importance of Financial Performance
【作者】
Amy Pond, Texas A&M University
Christina Zafeiridou, Cornerstone Research
【摘要】
资产流动被认为限制了税收，因为拥有流动资产的公司可以通过将资产置于低税管辖区来避免征税。资产不流动的公司则面临更高的税收。通过考虑伴随广泛金融化而来的政治诱因，我们确定了针对固定资产公司新的限制因素：当税金增加时，具有固定资产的公开交易公司在金融市场上会损失更多的价值，因为股东预计这些基本资产无法从税收里被扣除。当政府关注这种价值损失时，它们对这些资产固定的公开交易公司的征税动机就会下降。因此，对财务绩效的政治关切限制了固定资产可以被征税的程度。我们认为，广泛参与的股票市场和民主政治机构会增加人们对财务绩效的政治关切。我们讨论了该理论和发现对政策自治、公司所有权和经济投票的启示。
Asset mobility is thought to constrain taxation, as firms with mobile assets can avoid taxation by locating their assets in low-tax jurisdictions. Firms with immobile assets then face higher taxes. By considering the political incentives that accompany widespread financialization, we identify a new limit to the targeting of immobile firms: Publicly traded firms with immobile underlying assets lose more value in financial markets when taxes are increased, as shareholders anticipate that these underlying assets cannot be withheld from taxation. When governments care about this loss in value, their incentive to tax immobile, publicly traded firms declines. Political concern for financial performance therefore limits the extent to which immobile assets can be targeted for taxation. We argue that broad-based participation in the stock market and democratic political institutions increase political concern for financial performance. We discuss the implications of the theory and findings for policy autonomy, firm ownership, and economic voting.
11 特朗普总统的推特@realDonaldTrump是否真的对金融市场重要？
【题目】
Does the @realDonaldTrump Really Matter to Financial Markets?
【作者】
Allyson L. Benton, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas and City, University of London
Andrew Q. Philips, University of Colorado Boulder
【摘要】
特朗普总统的推特@realDonaldTrump对金融市场真的有影响吗？研究表明，有关政府未来可能政策方向的新信息会影响金融市场。相反，我们认为关于未来政府可能遵循其政策目标的决心也可能会产生新的信息从而影响金融市场。我们使用有关美国总统唐纳德·J·特朗普关于墨西哥的政策推文和美元兑墨西哥比索汇率的数据来检验我们的论点。我们发现，当特朗普的政治观点未知或是已知的情况下，特朗普的与墨西哥有关的推文增加了墨西哥比索的动荡，因为这表明他继续执行与墨西哥的相关议程的决心。一方面由于可以帮助政客向选民传播政策信息，另一方面也由于选民要求政府对其政绩负责，社交媒体允许投资者收集有关政府可能的政策方向和政策决心的信息，尤其是那些方向和决心未知的新移民相关信息。
Does the @realDonaldTrump really matter to financial markets? Research shows that new information about the likely future policy direction of government affects financial markets. In contrast, we argue that new information can also arise about the likely future government’s resolve in following through with its policy goals, affecting financial markets as well. We test our argument using data on U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s Mexico-related policy tweets and the U.S. dollar/Mexican peso exchange rate. We find that Trump’s Mexico-related tweets raised Mexican peso volatility while his policy views were unknown as well as thereafter, as they signaled his resolve in carrying out his Mexico-related agenda. By helping politicians disseminate policy information to voters, and since voters hold governments accountable for their policy performance, social media allows investors to gather information about the likely policy direction and policy resolve of government, especially those of newcomers whose direction and resolve are unknown.
12 作为公民理想的世界性爱国主义
【题目】
Cosmopolitan Patriotism as a Civic Ideal
【作者】
Lior Erez, University of Haifa
Cécile Laborde, Nuffield College, University of Oxford
【摘要】
最近的学界辩论质疑了爱国主义与全球主义理论所确定的全球政治责任的相容性。作为回应，几位作者声称世界性的爱国主义既有其可能性，同时也是可取的。在本文中，我们提出了两种现有学说无法解释的将世界性的爱国主义作为一种公民理想的诉求。首先，关于世界性爱国主义的论点应提供一种集体认同的说法，能够解释一个国家的行动与其适当的反应态度之间的关系。其次，这种理论应该能够解释为何爱国者致力于对其本国的行动进行批判。然后，我们对这两个将爱国主义与全球责任联系在一起的说法——包容型的爱国主义和对全球负责任的民族主义——进行了批判性评估，并说明了它们的缺陷。最后，我们提出一个名为“公民共和爱国主义的解释”，它能更好地解释如何将世界主义和爱国主义结合在一起。
Recent theoretical debates have questioned the compatibility of patriotism with global political responsibilities, as identified by cosmopolitan theory. In response, several authors claim that a cosmopolitan patriotism is both possible and desirable. In this article, we propose two desiderata for cosmopolitan patriotism as a civic ideal, which existing accounts fail to meet. First, arguments for cosmopolitan patriotism should provide an account of collective identification, supporting the relation between the actions of one’s country and one’s appropriate reactive attitudes. Second, such a theory should be able to explain the patriot’s commitment to critical engagement with her country’s actions. We then offer a critical appraisal of two accounts linking patriotism with global responsibility—Permissible Partialism and Globally Responsible Nationalism—and demonstrate how they fall short. Finally, we propose an account of civic republican patriotism, which better explains how cosmopolitanism and patriotism can be brought together.
编 译：陈佳林
校 对：俞驰韬
相关阅读：
编辑：欧阳星
一审：袁 丁
二审：袁 丁
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