国外顶刊前沿 | 比较政治学研究（Comparative Political Studies） 2020第5-6期
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《比较政治研究》2020年第5-6期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Comparative Political Studies（比较政治研究）是美国SAGE出版社旗下学术期刊，创刊于1968年，期刊每月出版一次，主要探讨比较政治学相关内容，期刊现任主编为明尼苏达大学教授David Samuels。过去五年的影响因子为4.262，在176个政治科学类期刊中排名第12。
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：比较政治学理论研究、全球比较政治学研究、国内比较政治学研究等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Speechmaking and the Selectorate: Persuasion in Nonpreferential Electoral Systems
演说与选举团：非特惠选举系统中的说服行为
A Closer Look at the Limits of Consociationalism
对联合主义理论缺陷的考量
The Evolution of the Immigration Debate: Evidence from a New Dataset of Party Positions Over the Last Half-Century
移民争论的演化：过去半世纪以来政党立场的新数据集的证明
Addressing Violence Against Women: The Effect of Women’s Police Stations on Police Legitimacy
解决女性暴力问题：女子警察局对警察合法性的影响
Business Against Markets: Employer Resistance to Collective Bargaining Liberalization During the Eurozone Crisis
商业与市场的对抗：欧元区危机中雇主对集体谈判自由化的抵制
When Does Information Influence Voters? The Joint Importance of Salience and Coordination
信息何时影响选民？显著性和协调性的共同价值
Middle Class Without a Net: Savings, Financial Fragility, and Preferences Over Social Insurance
没有净收入的中产阶级：储蓄，财政脆弱性和社会保险偏好
Patterns of Regime Breakdown Since the French Revolution
自法国大革命以来政权崩解的模式
The Dilemma of Dissent: Split Judicial Decisions and Compliance With Judgments From the International Human Rights Judiciary
异议困境：司法裁决的分歧与国际人权司法裁决的遵循
The Dynamics of Labor Militancy in the Extractive Sector: Kazakhstan’s Oilfields and South Africa’s Platinum Mines in Comparative Perspective
采掘行业劳工暴力的动态影响：哈萨克斯坦油田与南非铂金矿业的比较研究
PART 3
精选译文
01 演说与选举团：非特惠选举系统中的说服行为
【题目】
Speechmaking and the Selectorate: Persuasion in Nonpreferential Electoral Systems
Jorge M. Fernandes, University of Lisbon
Miguel Won, University of Lisbon
Bruno Martins, University of Lisbon
【作者】
Jorge M. Fernandes, University of Lisbon
Miguel Won, University of Lisbon
Bruno Martins, University of Lisbon
【摘要】
本文探讨了在非特惠选举体系中议员利用立法辩论参与到地方活动以迎合其选区利益的程度。我们将地方主义运动定义为对某一处于特定地理位置的，对议员再选具有重要作用的选区所进行有形或无形的利益输送。我们的主要观点认为，选举团在地方一级运行的议员会发表更多带有地方偏好的演讲。本文结果显示了对这种观点的强力支持。此外，我们发现高度的区位重要性会导致更高程度的地方主义。我们采用了方法混合的研究设计，将葡萄牙6万场原始辩论数据与对精英访谈的定性证据相结合。通过使用一种“提名实体认知”（Named Entity Recognition）的工具分析这些辩论，我们在代议制和立法研究领域实现了方法论创新。
This article examines the extent to which legislators use legislative debates to engage in localism activities to cater to the interests of their selectorate in nonpreferential electoral systems. We define localism activities as the delivery of tangible and intangible benefits to a geographically confined constituency that is instrumental to legislators’ re-selection. Our primary argument is that legislators whose selectorate operates at the local level make more speeches with parochial references. Results show strong support for this assertion. Furthermore, we find that high district magnitude leads to higher levels of localism. We use a mixed-methods research design, combining an original data set of 60,000 debates in Portugal with qualitative evidence from elite interviews. We make a methodological innovation in the field of representation and legislative studies by using a Named Entity Recognition tool to analyze the debates.
02 对联合主义理论缺陷的考量
【题目】
A Closer Look at the Limits of Consociationalism
【作者】
Matthew Charles Wilson, University of South California
【摘要】
虽然学界同意民族分化的社会更易于发生政治暴力，对联合主义理论的批判表明，比例代表制和议会制度为多元民族环境提供的解决方法并不理想。我认为，现存的关于权力分享制度对冲突可能性的研究多假设制度与民族多样性存在线性关系，但实际情况远比这复杂得多。我说明了，在民族多样处于中等程度下，比例代表制和议会制与国内冲突可能性的增加有所关联；但在一种更为多样的环境中与国内冲突的减少有所相关；而联邦制在高度民族异质化的环形中则与更高的冲突风险相关联。这些结果说明制度的和平化影响也许依赖于社会的极化程度，促使学者们更严谨地考量在一种民族更为多样的社会中，联合主义缓解冲突的有效性。
Although scholars agree that ethnically divided societies are generally more prone to political violence, critics of consociationalism suggest that proportional representation and parliamentarism provide poor solutions for ethnically heterogeneous settings. I argue that extant findings about the impacts of powersharing institutions on conflict likelihood assume that institutions have a linear relationship with ethnic diversity, whereas in reality, the relationship is more complex. I demonstrate that proportional representation and parliamentarism are associated with an increased likelihood of civil conflict at mid-range levels of diversity but are associated with a decreased risk of conflict in more extremely divided settings, while federalism is independently associated with greater conflict risk at higher levels of ethnic heterogeneity. The results underscore that the peace-promoting effects of institutions may depend on how polarized societies are, encouraging scholars to think more seriously about the effectiveness of consociationalism for mitigating violence where there is greater ethnic diversity.
03 移民争论的演化：过去半世纪以来政党立场的新数据集的证明
【题目】
The Evolution of the Immigration Debate: Evidence from a New Dataset of Party Positions Over the Last Half-Century
【作者】
Rafaela Dancygier, Princeton University
Yotam Margalit, Tel Aviv University
【摘要】
虽然移民是当代民主世界最具争议的问题之一，但它并非一贯如此。是什么导致了这种发展变化？通过建立并分析一种涵盖主要政党选前关于移民诉求的宣言文件的全新数据集，即“政党宣言中的移民”（Immigration in Party Manifestos, IPM），我们研究了过去五十年来移民问题在西欧政治辩论中的演变。我们的叙述主要集中于三个论点上。首先，与认知相反，我们在其中并未发现在左右两极分化的现象。相反，我们发现了引人注目的合作。其次，我们发现仅有少数证据支持“反移民政党的成功会塑造中间党派在移民问题上的立场”这种观点。最后，我们的证据反驳了文化问题已超越移民问题的说法。虽然在特定国家和地区，关于移民相关的文化诉求显著增加，但经济维度的诉求仍较为普遍。
Immigration is one of the most contentious issues across contemporary democracies, but this has not always been the case. What accounts for this development? We study how immigration has evolved in the political debate in Western Europe over five decades by creating and analyzing a comprehensive new data set—Immigration in Party Manifestos (IPM)—of all immigration-related appeals made in preelection manifestos by major parties. Our account focuses on three central debates. First, contra to perceived wisdom, we find no evidence of polarization between left and right. Instead, we document a striking co-movement. Second, we find only modest support for the argument that the success of anti-immigrant parties significantly shapes how centrist parties position themselves on immigration. Finally, our evidence counters the claim that cultural issues have overtaken the debate over immigration. Although the prominence of immigration-related cultural appeals has increased in certain countries and elections, the economic dimension has remained prevalent.
04 解决女性暴力问题：女子警察局对警察合法性的影响
【题目】
Addressing Violence Against Women: The Effect of Women’s Police Stations on Police Legitimacy
【作者】
Abby Córdova, University of Kentucky
Helen Kras, University of Kentucky
【摘要】
通过对女子警察局（Women’s Police Stations, WPS）实施情况的关注，我们假定解决女性暴力的地方警力能够对制度合法性产生正向反馈效应。我们的理论认为，通过提高对个人安全和政府响应的感知能力，女子警察局提高了警察在女性群体中的合法性认同。为验证假设，我们参考了来自巴西100多个城市的市政和民意数据。我们的多层次分析结果表明，女子警察局在女性当中产生了正向反馈效应，使得女性对警察的信任度高于男性，并缩小了在警力效能认知方面的性别差异。在这些分析中加入工具变量仍得到相似的结果，这说明上述效应不是内生的。此外，我们调解模型的结果表明，女子警察局就女性对警察合法性产生的积极效应是由个人安全观的改善，而非政府效应效能所驱动导致的。
With a focus on the implementation of women’s police stations (WPS), we posit that local policies that address violence against women can result in positive feedback effects on institutional legitimacy. We theorize that WPS increase police legitimacy among women by improving perceptions of personal safety and government responsiveness. To test our hypotheses, we rely on municipal and public opinion data from more than 100 municipalities in Brazil. The results of our multilevel analysis indicate that WPS produce positive feedback effects among women, resulting in higher trust in the police among women than men and closing the gender gap in perceptions of police effectiveness. Incorporating an instrumental variable in the analyses yields similar results, suggesting that these effects are not endogenous. Moreover, the results of our mediation models show that WPS’ positive effects on women’s views of police legitimacy are driven by improved perceptions of personal safety, and not perceptions of government responsiveness.
05 商业与市场的对抗：欧元区危机中雇主对集体谈判自由化的抵制
【题目】
Business Against Markets: Employer Resistance to Collective Bargaining Liberalization During the Eurozone Crisis
【作者】
Fabio Bulfone, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Alexandre Afonso, Leiden University
【摘要】
雇主组织（行业协会）一直以来都是欧洲工业关系自由化的强力推动者。与之相反，本文认为雇主对自由化的偏好是多样性的，并记录了西班牙、意大利和葡萄牙的行业协会如何在欧元区危机期间抵制国家主导的集体谈判自由化改革。它表明，小企业在这些国家经济中的主导地位使得行业协会支持行业谈判和国家监管的特定方面。对小企业而言，行业谈判之所以重要有以下三点原因：它限制了行业冲突，减少由薪资谈判所带来的交易成本，并确保成员企业不被那些低薪资和就业环境的竞争对手削弱。除此之外，国家主导下的行业谈判存续及其延伸至全行业的拓展事关行业协会的生存问题。本文就雇主反对自由化问题提出了与各种资本主义研究路径不同的逻辑依据。
Employer organizations have been presented as strong promoters of the liberalization of industrial relations in Europe. This article, in contrast, argues that the preferences of employers vis-à-vis liberalization are heterogeneous and documents how employer organizations in Spain, Italy, and Portugal have resisted state-led reforms to liberalize collective bargaining during the Euro crisis. It shows that the dominance of small firms in the economies of these countries make employer organizations supportive of selective aspects of sectoral bargaining and state regulation. Encompassing sectoral bargaining is important for small firms for three reasons: it limits industrial conflict, reduces transaction costs related to wage-bargaining, and ensures that member firms are not undercut by rivals offering lower wages and employment conditions. Furthermore, the maintenance of sectoral bargaining and its extension to whole sectors by the state is a matter of survival for employer organizations. The article presents rationales for employer opposition to liberalization that differ from the varieties of capitalism approach.
06 信息何时影响选民？显著性和协调性的共同价值
【题目】
When Does Information Influence Voters? The Joint Importance of Salience and Coordination
【作者】
Claire Adida, University of California, San Diego
Jessica Gottlieb, Texas A&M University
Eric Kramon, George Washington University
Gwyneth McClendon, New York University
【摘要】
学者们认为，对政客总体表现信息的获取可以帮助选民奖励出色的政客并惩罚表现不佳的政客。但在政治资源以集体选举行为为条件的地方，如果选民不相信其他人会给一个强势议员投票，那他们可能也不会转投这个人。我们认为关于政客表现的信息对选民行为的影响必须涉及两个条件：选民必须在意那些信息，并相信他们所在选区的其他人也同样在意这些。在一项针对贝宁议员选举的田野实验中，只有当信息与选民相关并且在选区内广泛传播时，选民才会奖励总体出色的表现行为。否则，获取积极立法表现的信息会在事实上降低该政党的得票份额。这些结果表明，突出性和选民协调性对塑造国家民主主义信息效应方面的共同重要性。
Scholars argue that access to information about a politician’s programmatic performance helps voters reward good performers and punish poor ones. But in places where resources are made conditional on collective electoral behavior, voters may not want to defect to vote for a strong legislative performer if they do not believe that others will. We argue that two conditions must hold for information about politician performance to affect voter behavior: Voters must care about the information and believe that others in their constituency care as well. In a field experiment around legislative elections in Benin, voters rewarded good programmatic performance only when information was both made relevant to voters and widely disseminated within the electoral district. Otherwise, access to positive legislative performance information actually lowered vote share for the incumbent’s party. These results demonstrate the joint importance of Salience and voter coordination in shaping information’s impact in clientelistic democracies.
07 没有净收入的中产阶级：储蓄，财政脆弱性和社会保险偏好
【题目】
Middle Class Without a Net: Savings, Financial Fragility, and Preferences Over Social Insurance
【作者】
Jacob Gerner Hariri, University of Copenhagen
Amaile Sofie Jensen, Princeton University
David Dreyer Lassen, University of Copenhagen
【摘要】
本文中，我们证明了区分流动性和非流动性财富对于理解选民如何形成对社会保险的偏好态度至关重要。尽管拥有高额收入和财富，许多家庭在财政上仍然脆弱，因为他们的流动性储蓄较少。我们假设并通过实证研究发现，因为在收入冲击情况下借助储蓄自保的能力有限，所以有相当一部分选民即便享有高额收入和财富，也会对社保政策表现出强力支持。我们的实证分析基于一套来自丹麦的新数据集，其中结合了行政数据，高质量的个人财政资产状况调查和对政治偏好态度的调查。利用欧洲社会调查中其他国家的数据，我们发现证据表明本文研究结果并不局限于丹麦的情况，而是具有更大的普遍性。
In this article, we show that it is crucial to distinguish between liquid and illiquid wealth to understand how voters form preferences toward social insurance. Many households are financially fragile despite having high incomes and wealth, because they hold little liquid savings. We hypothesize, and show empirically, that this implies that a substantial group of voters show strong support for social insurance policies despite being wealthy and having high incomes, because of their limited ability to self-insure through own savings in case of an income shock. Our empirical analysis is based on a novel dataset from Denmark, which combines administrative data with high-quality measures of individual financial assets and survey measures of political preferences. Using data for other countries from the European Social Survey, we find evidence that our results hold more generally and are not specific to the Danish context.
08 自法国大革命以来政权崩解的模式
【题目】
Patterns of Regime Breakdown Since the French Revolution
【作者】
Vlide Lunnan Djuve, Aarhus University
Carl Henrik Knutsen, University of Oslo
Tore Wig, University of Oslo
【摘要】
我们就政权类型提出了一种由遴选领导人正式或非正式规则所定义的，关于时间的细粒度数据集（fine-grained data set）。这套数据集由1789年-2016年以来197个政体的2000多个政权类型组成。我们重点强调这种崩溃的特定频率和模式如何在现代历史中遵循一种周期循环，而非变化无常的规律。总体来说，这其中最常见的崩溃模式是政变和政府主导的政权转型。除此之外，我们的研究报告有力证明了低收入、缓慢甚至负增长的经济以及中等水平的民主状况具有更高的政权崩溃可能。但是，通过对变化点（change-point）的分析，我们证实了政权崩溃风险贯穿循环在现代历史的各个时期，且前述因素在某些特定时期与政权的崩溃明显相关。举例而言，当剖析不同政权崩溃模式时，低收入往往与民众起义导致的政权崩溃有关；而中等程度的民主水平则会明显预示政变导致的政权崩溃以及政府主导的政权过渡。
虽然学界同意民族分化的社会更易于发生政治暴力，对联合主义理论的批判表明，比例代表制和议会制度为多元民族环境提供的解决方法并不理想。我认为，现存的关于权力分享制度对冲突可能性的研究多假设制度与民族多样性存在线性关系，但实际情况远比这复杂得多。我说明了，在民族多样处于中等程度下，比例代表制和议会制与国内冲突可能性的增加有所关联；但在一种更为多样的环境中与国内冲突的减少有所相关；而联邦制在高度民族异质化的环形中则与更高的冲突风险相关联。这些结果说明制度的和平化影响也许依赖于社会的极化程度，促使学者们更严谨地考量在一种民族更为多样的社会中，联合主义缓解冲突的有效性。
We present a temporally fine-grained data set on regimes, defined as the formal and informal rules essential for selecting leaders. The data set comprises more than 2,000 regimes from 197 polities, 1789 to 2016. We highlight how the frequency of breakdowns and particular modes of breakdown have followed cyclical rather than monotonic patterns across modern history. The most common breakdown modes, overall, are coups and incumbent-guided regime transformations. Furthermore, we report robust evidence that low income, slow or negative growth, and intermediate levels of democracy predict a higher likelihood of regime breakdown. Yet, by running change-point analysis we establish that breakdown risk has cycled substantively across periods of modern history, and the aforementioned explanatory factors are more clearly related to breakdown during certain periods. When disaggregating different breakdown modes, low income is related to, for example, breakdown due to popular uprisings, whereas intermediate democracy levels clearly predict coup-induced breakdowns and incumbent-guided transitions.
09 异议困境：司法裁决的分歧与国际人权司法裁决的遵循
【题目】
The Dilemma of Dissent: Split Judicial Decisions and Compliance With Judgments From the International Human Rights Judiciary
【作者】
Daniel Naurin, Univeristy of Oslo
Øyvind Stiansen, Univeristy of Oslo
【摘要】
法院与其遵循群体的相互依赖是司法裁决权的基本特征。得到法庭裁决对其个人权益支持的行为体也许会以此作为一种法律武器，同时也就有助于确保法庭裁决能得到有效实施。我们认为，与无异议裁决相比，包含异议的司法决定在同一方面的执行权力较小。原因是异议削弱了判决的法律权威。利用国际人权裁决在欧美的数据，我们证明了司法异议与司法遵循之间的负相关联系。我们的研究结果对法庭的制服设计，管控遵循问题的能力以及理解有效国际人权司法保护的条件等相关问题具有重要意义。
The mutual dependence between courts and their compliance constituencies is a fundamental feature of judicial power. Actors whose rights and interests are reinforced by court decisions may use these as legal ammunitions while contributing to ensuring that court decisions are effectively implemented. We argue that judgments that contain dissenting opinions are less powerful in this regard, compared with unanimous decisions. The reason is that dissent reduces the perceived legal authority of the judgment. Using data from the international human rights judiciaries in Europe and the Americas, we provide evidence of a negative relationship between judicial dissent and compliance. Our findings have important implications for questions relating to the institutional design of courts, for courts’ ability to manage compliance problems, and for understanding the conditions for effective international judicial protection of human rights.
10 采掘行业劳工暴力的动态影响：哈萨克斯坦油田与南非铂金矿业的比较研究
【题目】
The Dynamics of Labor Militancy in the Extractive Sector: Kazakhstan’s Oilfields and South Africa’s Platinum Mines in Comparative Perspective
【作者】
Allison D. Evans, University of Nevada
Rudra Sil, University of Pennsylvania
【摘要】
本文研究了为什么在两个截然不同的政权中，哈萨克斯坦油田与南非铂金带都明显存在高度的劳工暴力现象。同时本文也探讨了导致在扎瑙津（2011）和马里卡纳（2012）大屠杀的原因。这种在所有不同系统比较中产生的理论假设，突出了在全球化经济中固定开采，剧烈价格波动和固定压力相结合给劳资关系带来的挑战，从而使得企业、劳工和国家的风险增加。同样重要的还有工会失声对劳资谈判渠道带来的阻碍。这些必要条件共同导致了在哈萨克斯坦和南非采矿业的劳工暴力。对扎瑙津（2011）和马里卡纳大屠杀的研究解释则要考虑时序问题。两次对峙都是在罢工潮之后出现的，这使得失去耐心的国家和商业精英指责其为“犯罪”行为，并致使安全人员采取暴力镇压的手段。
This article investigates why, in two very different regimes, similarly high levels of labor militancy are evident in Kazakhstan’s oilfields and South Africa’s platinum belt. It also explores the common dynamics leading up to the massacres at Zhanaozen (2011) and Marikana (2012). The hypothesis-generating most different systems comparison highlights the challenges of labor relations where extraction at fixed sites combines with volatile prices and shareholder pressures in a globalized economy to raise the stakes for business, labor, and state. Also significant are blockages in existing channels for bargaining linked to quiescent unions. These jointly necessary conditions account for increased militancy in extractive industries in Kazakhstan and South Africa. To account for the Zhanaozen and Marikana massacres, timing and sequence are considered. Both standoffs came later in the strike wave, prompting impatient state and business elites to criticize the protests as “criminal” acts, and priming security personnel to employ violent repression.
编 译：周煜洋
审 校：林俊斯
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编辑：王泽萍
一审：陈佳林
二审：袁 丁
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