顶刊前沿 |《英国政治科学杂志》2020年第2期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《British Journal of Political Science》2020年第2期期刊目录及文章精选。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
British Journal of Political Science（英国政治学学杂志）是剑桥大学出版社旗下学术期刊，创刊于1971年，出版周期为每年4期，现任主编为加州大学滨河分校教授Shaun Bowler。期刊收录范围涵盖政治科学的所有细分学科。IF：3.120
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：政治理论研究、国际关系研究、区域事务研究等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Restraining the Huddled Masses: Migration Policy and Autocratic Survival
限制拥挤的群众：移民政策和专制生存
Corruption and Ideological Voting
腐败与意识形态投票
Getting a Hand By Cutting Them Off: How Uncertainty over Political Corruption Affects Violence
切断上帝之手：政治腐败的不确定性如何影响暴力
For and Against Brexit: A Survey Experiment of the Impact of Campaign Effects on Public Attitudes toward EU Membership
支持和反对英国脱欧：一项基于公众对欧盟成员国态度的竞选效应的影响的调查实验
Tones from a Narrowing Race: Polling and Online Political Communication during the 2014 Scottish Referendum Campaign
窄化竞争中的语气：2014年苏格兰独立公投活动中的民调和线上政治交流
Feudalism, Collaboration and Path Dependence in England’s Political Development
英国政治发展中的封建主义、合作与路径依赖
Are Western-Educated Leaders Less Prone to Initiate Militarized Disputes?
有西方教育背景的领导人更不易于挑起军事争端吗?
The Liberal Ethics of Non-Interference
不干涉的自由主义伦理
Pension Returns and Popular Support for Neoliberalism in Post-Pension Reform Latin America
拉丁美洲养老金改革后的养老金回报和对新自由主义的普遍支持
The Moral Roots of Partisan Division: How Moral Conviction Heightens Affective Polarization
党派分歧的道德根源：道德信念如何加剧情感极化
The Behavioral Consequences of Election Outcomes: Evidence From Campaign Contributions
选举结果的行为后果：来自竞选捐款的证据
Beclouding Party Position as an Electoral Strategy: Voter Polarization, Issue Priority and Position Blurring
模糊政党立场作为一种选举策略：选民分化、议题排序和立场模糊化处理
On the Representativeness of Primary Electorates
论初选选民的代表性
‘Reserved Ratification’: An Analysis of States’ Entry of Reservations Upon Ratification of Human Rights Treaties
“有所保留的批准”：对国家为人权条约的批准申明限制条件的分析
Voting Rights and Immigrant Incorporation: Evidence from Norway
投票权与移民融入：来自挪威的证据
Violence, Empathy and Altruism: Evidence from the Ivorian Refugee Crisis in Liberia
暴力、共情和利他主义：利比里亚的科特迪瓦人难民危机的证据
Ethnicity, National Identity and the State: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
种族、民族身份和国家：来自撒哈拉以南非洲的证据
PART 3
精选译文
01 限制拥挤的群众：移民政策和专制生存
【题目】
Restraining the Huddled Masses: Migration Policy and Autocratic Survival
【作者】
MICHAEL K. MILLER, George Washington University
MARGARET E. PETERS, University of California at Los Angeles
【摘要】
是什么决定了公民摆脱独裁统治的自由？这如何影响移民和民主化的总体模式？尽管长期以来，对公民运动的控制是专制权力的核心，但现代专制国家在限制移民方面存在着相当大的差异。本文表明，独裁者通过平衡数个不同动机来策略性地选择移民政策。通过挑选更忠诚的人群、吸引更多的投资、贸易和汇款的方式增加移民能够稳定政权，但让本国公民在海外接触民主是有潜在危险的。通过采用时间跨度为半个世纪的双边移民数据，该研究根据外生的地理和社会经济特征核算了预期移民的水平和目的地。研究发现，当本国公民不成比例地移民至民主国家时，这些移民输出国更有可能实现民主化，而独裁者则会相应地限制移民自由。相比之下，经济移民的预期流动规模更大，这预示着独裁统治的存续和更自由的移民政策。这些结果对专制政治、民主扩散，以及移民的政治根源具有重要意义。
What determines citizens’ freedom to exit autocracies? How does this influence global patterns of migration and democratization? Although control over citizen movement has long been central to autocratic power, modern autocracies vary considerably in how much they restrict emigration. This article shows that autocrats strategically choose emigration policy by balancing several motives. Increasing emigration can stabilize regimes by selecting a more loyal population and attracting greater investment, trade and remittances, but exposing their citizens to democracy abroad is potentially dangerous. Using a half-century of bilateral migration data, the study calculates the level and destinations of expected emigration given exogenous geographic and socioeconomic characteristics. It finds that when citizens disproportionately emigrate to democracies, countries are more likely to democratize – and that autocrats restrict emigration freedom in response. In contrast, a larger expected flow of economic emigration predicts autocratic survival and freer emigration policy. These results have important implications for autocratic politics, democratic diffusion and the political sources of migration.
02 腐败与意识形态投票
【题目】
Corruption and Ideological Voting
【作者】
DIANA BURLACU, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
【摘要】
本文探讨了腐败对意识形态投票的影响。将以往对政治腐败的研究与意识形态投票的理论联系起来，该研究认为，当腐败程度高时，选民在投票时对意识形态的重视程度低于其他情况。造成这种影响的原因与下述两种情况相关：1）选民对政党立场的准确感知能力的下降；以及2）在这种情况下政党的政治效能较低。通过利用“选举系统的比较研究(CSES)”[1]中的97次选举数据，该研究显示，选民在具有高水平腐败的国家中更少考虑意识形态在其投票决策中的权重，这在部分程度上是因为他们面临着识别党派意识形态立场的困难和/或他们不相信后者能够实现其竞选纲领。即使在控制了社会经济和政治的干扰因子，以及腐败盛行所导致的选民的更高的弃权率之后，这些关系依然存在。
[1] 译者注：选举系统的比较研究(CSES)系一跨国的选举研究合作计划，参与研究的国家及政体在其选后研究皆使用同一问卷模组，汇整所得之资料与投票、人口、区域及总体变数建立资料集，以多层次的观点对投票行为进行比较分析。
This article examines the effect of corruption on ideological voting. Linking previous studies of political corruption with theories of ideological voting, it argues that when corruption is high, voters place less importance on ideology when voting than they otherwise would. The reason for this effect is related to voters’ reduced ability to accurately perceive parties’ positions and to their low political efficacy in these contexts. Using data from ninety-seven elections from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, the study shows that in countries with high levels of corruption, voters consider ideology less in their voting decisions, partially because they face difficulties identifying parties’ ideological positions and/or they do not believe parties can implement their electoral programmes. These relationships hold even after controlling for socio-economic and political confounders and for voters’ increased likelihood of abstaining when corruption is high.
03 切断上帝之手：政治腐败的不确定性如何影响暴力
【题目】
Getting a Hand By Cutting Them Off: How Uncertainty over Political Corruption Affects Violence
【作者】
PAUL ZACHARY, University of California at San Diego & Emory University
WILLIAM SPANIEL, University of Pittsburgh
【摘要】
犯罪暴力不同于其他冲突之处在于非法的犯罪集团主要使用暴力来消除对手，而不是推翻政府。然而，政客影响上述垄断组织的行为的能力尚不明了。本文认为，政客们通过设定自己管辖范围内的警察执法水平来改变垄断组织使用暴力的方式，但后者却可以贿赂政客以使其对此视而不见。由于垄断组织不确定政客是否腐败以及腐败程度，因此并不是每次贿赂都能够取得成功。大选之后，垄断组织必须投入资源来了解政客的腐败程度。垄断组织只有在成功贿赂政治领导人之后才会增加其暴力程度，这意味着地方暴力程度应该随着政党执政时间的延长而增加。该研究将这一论点正式化，并利用墨西哥的谋杀和政治任期数据来检验其影响。调查结果显示，政治任期与暴力程度有关。结果同时表明，墨西哥在举行选举后，政党的政治任期每增加一年，凶杀案就会增加948起。
Criminal violence differs from other conflicts because illegal cartels primarily use violence to eliminate rivals rather than overthrow the state. However, politicians’ ability to influence cartel behavior remains unclear. This article argues that politicians alter the use of violence by setting their jurisdiction’s police enforcement levels, but that cartels can bribe politicians to look the other way. Because cartels are uncertain about politicians’ corruptibility, not every bribe is successful. Following an election, cartels must invest resources into learning politicians’ level of corruption. Cartels only increase their level of violence after successfully bribing political leaders, which implies that local violence levels should increase the longer parties remain in office. The study formalizes this argument and tests its implications using data on homicides and political tenure from Mexico. The results link incumbency to violence and suggest Mexico experiences an additional 948 homicides for each year of increased political tenure after holding an election.
04 支持和反对英国脱欧：一项基于公众对欧盟成员国态度的竞选效应的影响的调查实验
【题目】
For and Against Brexit: A Survey Experiment of the Impact of Campaign Effects on Public Attitudes toward EU Membership
【作者】
MATTHEW GOODWIN, University of Kent
SIMON HIX, London School of Economics and Political Science
MARK PICKUP, Simon Fraser University
【摘要】
2016年英国脱欧公投在信息框架效应方面有什么教训?本文公布了一项基于“两波段固定样本连续追踪之研究设计”[1]的创新在线调查实验的结果。调查结果表明，尽管竞选效应在英国脱欧等重大问题上一般被认为较小，但在亲欧盟框架下却被认为潜力很大。这表明，在一个不对称的信息环境中，即该议题的反欧盟一方的观点被“充分反映”而亲欧盟一方的观点被低估，单一方向的竞选效应的潜力是巨大的。就这种环境在其他公投活动中反映的程度而言，亲欧盟框架的潜在影响可能是巨大的。
What are the lessons of the 2016 referendum on UK membership of the European Union (EU) regarding the effects of message framing? This article reports findings from an innovative online survey experiment based on a two-wave panel design. The findings show that, despite the expectation that campaign effects are generally small for high-salience issues – such as Brexit – the potential for campaign effects was high for the pro-EU frames. This suggests that within an asymmetrical information environment – in which the arguments for one side of an issue (anti-EU) are ‘priced in’, while arguments for the other side (pro-EU) have been understated – the potential for campaign effects in a single direction are substantial. To the extent that this environment is reflected in other referendum campaigns, the potential effect of pro-EU frames may be substantial.
05 英国政治发展中的封建主义、合作与路径依赖
【题目】
Feudalism, Collaboration and Path Dependence in England’s Political Development
【作者】
GABRIEL LEON, King’s College London
【摘要】
本文受英国历史的启发，提出了一种路径依赖的形式模型。诺曼征服后对封建制度的引入——这一关键时刻——造就了一大批经常反叛的精英。国王从群众中招募合作者来对付这些叛乱。作为回报，他让这些合作者成为精英中的一份子。这是一种划算的补偿形式，即租金[1]只是部分竞争的，因此新精英成员只能部分“稀释”国王收到的租金。随着精英群体规模的扩大，新成员的“稀释作用”逐渐减弱，产生了正反馈和路径依赖。这一机制可以解释英国在走向民主的早期阶段的权利的扩展。
[1] 译者注：租金（rents）由俱乐部财（club goods，又称“集团财”或“人为的稀有财”）产生，而精英权利（elite rights）本质上就是俱乐部财。
This article presents a formal model of path dependence inspired by England’s history. The introduction of feudalism after the Norman Conquest – the critical juncture – created a large elite that rebelled frequently. The king fought these revolts with the help of collaborators he recruited from the masses. In compensation, he made these collaborators members of the elite. This was a cost-effective form of compensation: rents were only partly rival, and so new elite members only partially diluted the rents received by the king. The dilution from adding new members decreased as the elite grew in size, generating positive feedback and path dependence. This mechanism can account for the extension of rights in England in the early stages of its journey towards democracy.
06 有西方教育背景的领导人更不易于挑起军事争端吗?
【题目】
Are Western-Educated Leaders Less Prone to Initiate Militarized Disputes?
【作者】
JOAN BARCELÓ, Washington University in St. Louis
【摘要】
最近关于战争原因的理论集中在制度和结构因素如何影响领导人的外交政策决定。然而，公民、政策制定者和越来越多的学者认为，领导人的背景经历可能对其国内外政策选择都有影响。本文通过展示个人特性如何影响军事争端的引发，对国际关系中的领导人研究这一新兴领域做出了贡献。基于国际经验的软实力理论和社会化易受影响的年份假设[1]，我从理论上说明有在西方民主国家接受过高等教育的领导人应该比没有如此教育背景的领导人更不可能挑起国家间的军事争端。我使用了一个建立在Archigos[2] 和LEAD[3] 基础上的新数据集，其中包括1947年至2001年间来自147个非西方国家的900多名领导人的背景特征，以此来检验这个观点。即使考虑到领导人的选择、时变国家和领导人级别的控制、其他领导人的背景特征以及国家和年份的固定效应，研究结果也有力地支持了上述假设。这一发现为学术机构关于国际旅居者的软实力理论提供了佐证，并突出了在分析国际关系时考虑领导人经历的价值所在。
[1] 译者注：易受影响的年份假设（impressionable-years hypothesis）是一种政治心理学理论，人为个人通常在青少年晚期和成年初显期形成其政治态度和政党归属。
[2] 译者注：Archigos是一个领导人研究数据库，数据年份涵盖1875 – 2004年。
[3] 译者注：LEAD是一个领导人研究数据库，全称The Leader Experience and Attribute Descriptions (LEAD)，该数据库提供1875 – 2004年期间超过2,000位领导人的个人生活经历的丰富信息。
Recent theories on the causes of war focus on how institutional and structural factors shape leaders’ decisions in foreign policy. However, citizens, policy-makers, and a growing number scholars argue that leaders’ background experiences may matter for both domestic and foreign policy choices. This article contributes to an emerging body of scholarship on leaders in international relations by showing how personal attributes influence the initiation of militarized disputes. Based on the soft power theory of international experiences and the impressionable-years hypothesis of socialization, I theorize that leaders with the experience of attending a university in a Western democratic country should be less likely than non-Western-educated leaders to initiate militarized interstate disputes. I test this proposition by employing a new dataset, building on Archigos and LEAD, that includes background attributes of more than 900 leaders from 147 non-Western countries between 1947 and 2001. The results strongly support the hypothesis, even when accounting for leader selection, time-variant country and leader-level controls, other leaders’ background characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. This finding lends credence to the soft power thesis of academic institutions on international sojourners, and highlights the value of considering leaders’ experiences in analyses about international relations.
07 不干涉的自由主义伦理
【题目】
The Liberal Ethics of Non-Interference
【作者】
MARCO MARIOTTI, Queen Mary University of London
ROBERTO VENEZIANI, Queen Mary University of London
【摘要】
本文分析了不干涉社会选择的自由主义伦理。本文检验了一种刻画社会的不干涉观点的自由主义原则，该原则受到了穆勒[1] 的自由的概念的启发。它表达了这样一种观点，即社会不应在个人的境况发生变化而不影响他人的情况下对其进行惩罚。这篇文章强调了自由主义方法的不可能性，即每一个满足一致性和不干涉的一般原则的社会决策规则都必须是独裁的。这为社会选择和政治哲学中的自由主义方法提出了一些重要的问题。
[1] 译者注：John Stuart Mill，今有译法为“约翰·斯图尔特·密尔”，英国著名效益主义、自由主义哲学家，政治经济学家，英国国会议员，其作品On Liberty 即严复所译的《群己权界论》，今译作《论自由》。
This article analyses the liberal ethics of non-interference in social choice. It examines a liberal principle that captures non-interfering views of society and is inspired by John Stuart Mill’s conception of liberty. The principle expresses the idea that society should not penalize individuals after changes in their situation that do not affect others. The article highlights an impossibility for liberal approaches: every social decision rule that satisfies unanimity and a general principle of non-interference must be dictatorial. This raises some important issues for liberal approaches in social choice and political philosophy.
08 拉丁美洲养老金改革后的养老金回报和对新自由主义的普遍支持
【题目】
Pension Returns and Popular Support for Neoliberalism in Post-Pension Reform Latin America
【作者】
ANDREW KERNER, Michigan State University
【摘要】
上世纪90年代的拉丁美洲养老金改革极大地增加了该地区直接参与金融资本回报的人数。本文问道：如果真有的话，这种扩张影响了拉美地区的政治吗？本文特别关注公众对新自由主义的态度，并认为政府引导的资本所有权扩张不会直接影响公众对新自由主义的偏好，而是通过塑造人们用以判断新自由主义是否增进福利的信息来间接地影响。根据这一观点，参与改革后的拉美养老金体系应当会使公众在养老金回报高时接受新自由主义，但在回报低时却会产生相反的效果。本研究分析了拉美调查数据的多个数据集，为这一理论提供了支持。
Latin American pension reforms during the 1990s dramatically increased the number of people in the region who had a direct stake in the returns on financial capital. This article asks: How, if at all, has this expansion affected Latin American politics? It focuses particularly on popular attitudes towards neoliberalism. It argues that government-induced expansions of capital ownership do not directly affect public preferences about neoliberalism, but did so indirectly by shaping the information that people use to judge whether neoliberalism is welfare enhancing. According to this view, participation in a reformed Latin American pension system should lead to acceptance of neoliberalism when pensions returns are high, but have the opposite effect when returns are low. This study analyzes multiple datasets of Latin American survey data and finds support for this theory.
09 党派分歧的道德根源：道德信念如何加剧情感极化
【题目】
The Moral Roots of Partisan Division: How Moral Conviction Heightens Affective Polarization
【作者】
KRISTIN N. GARRETT, Wheaton College
ALEXA ANKERT, University of Georgia
【摘要】
在过去的几十年里，美国选民中的党派偏见和敌对情绪大幅增加，而之前的研究表明，党性强度和党派分类[1] 有助于推动这一趋势。然而，根据道德心理学的经验，我们认为，除党派之争外，党派道德信念还会加剧情感上的两极分化，使之增强党派的仇恨和联合党派的偏袒。通过使用两个国家作样本的数据和日常生活中情感极化的新方法来验证这个理论，我们发现，那些倾向于将政治道德化的人表现出了更多的党派偏见、冷淡和敌意，而与党性强度无关。这些结果揭示了将美国公众分隔开来的一种不同的道德鸿沟，并提出了有关道德信念和选举政治的关键的规范性问题。
[1] 译者注：Partisan Sorting，中文称“党派分类”或“地理分类”，是政治中的一种效应。在这种政治中，具有特定观点的选民迁移到特定区域，与更广泛的选民相比，他们更加集中于这些区域。这种影响可能会造成或促成两极分化的影响，在两极分化中，各个地区被政治运动所支配的程度远远超过选民“平均”政治观点所预期的程度。
Partisan bias and hostility have increased substantially over the last few decades in the American electorate, and previous work shows that partisan strength and sorting help drive this trend. Drawing on insights from moral psychology, however, we posit that partisan moral convictions heighten affective polarization beyond the effects of partisanship, increasing partisan animosity and copartisan favoritism. Testing this theory using data from two national samples and novel measures of affective polarization in everyday life, we find that people who tend to moralize politics display more partisan bias, distance and hostility, irrespective of partisan strength. These results shed light on a different moral divide that separates the American public and raise key normative questions about moral conviction and electoral politics.
10 选举结果的行为后果：来自竞选捐款的证据
【题目】
The Behavioral Consequences of Election Outcomes: Evidence From Campaign Contributions
【作者】
NICOLAS K. DUMAS, MIT
KYLE SHOHFI, MIT
【摘要】
关于选举结果是否会影响个体支持者未来的政治行为，现有的研究提供了相互矛盾的预测。本研究利用来自不同选战的数千名候选人的数百万捐款人的数据集，分析了一系列的断点回归以估计捐款人对选举中小胜和惜败的候选人的影响。研究发现，成功的捐款者今后更有可能向同一类型的候选人捐赠。这些影响是巨大的，甚至发生在他们原来的候选人没有竞选连任的时候。结果显示，选举结果的后果超出了对一个特定职位的控制权，并影响到普通公民未来的行为。
Existing research offers competing predictions as to whether election outcomes affect the future political behavior of individual supporters. Drawing on a dataset of millions of donors across thousands of candidates in different races, this study analyzes a series of regression discontinuities to estimate the effect of donating to a barely winning candidate as opposed to a barely losing one. It finds that winning donors were substantially more likely to donate in the future to that same office type. These effects are large and occur even when their original candidate was not up for re-election. The results show that the consequences of election outcomes extend beyond control of a particular seat, and affect the future behavior of ordinary citizens.
11 模糊政党立场作为一种选举策略：选民分化、议题排序和立场模糊化处理
【题目】
Beclouding Party Position as an Electoral Strategy: Voter Polarization, Issue Priority and Position Blurring
【作者】
KYUNG JOON HAN, The University of Tennessee
【摘要】
政党为什么会展现模糊的立场？我们认为，选民的分化令政党有了展现清晰或模糊立场的动机，政党在两者间的选择取决于对政党最重要的那个议题。我们发现，面对选民分化的情况，对于同样的议题，西欧政党若把它列为首要，就会展现更清晰的立场，但若把它列为次要，就会展现模糊的立场。这样一来，立场模糊化对于有着不同议题维度的政党体制会产生不同的影响（比如美国的政党体制不同于西欧的政党体制）。研究结果也意味着，政党会根据经济和移民议题上的选民分化的进展，就立场的清晰度做出不同的反应。
Why do political parties present vague positions? We suggest that voter polarization provides them incentives to present either clear or vague positions, and the choice between these two is determined by the priority of an issue for the parties. We find that facing voter polarization, Western European political parties present clearer positions on an issue when it is a prime issue for them, but blur their positions when it is a secondary issue. Then, position blurring gives different implications to party systems with different degrees of issue dimensionality (such as American vs Western European party systems). The results also imply that political parties will respond to ongoing voter polarization on economic and immigration issues differently in the clarity of their position.
12 论初选选民的代表性
【题目】
On the Representativeness of Primary Electorates
【作者】
JOHN SIDES, George Washington University
CHRIS TAUSANOVITCH, University of California Los Angeles
LYNN VAVRECK, University of California Los Angeles
CHRISTOPHER WARSHAW, George Washington University
【摘要】
初选选民通常被看成所属政党在意识形态方面极端的一部分，进而构成了政府内政党分化的部分原因。本文将初选参与率的管理记录和2008到2014年中最近五次调查情况结合起来，阐明了初选选民和一般选民[1]有着相似的人口特征和对政策的态度。这些相似性不随初选的开放程度而改变。研究结果显示，初选选民的组成并不会使整个政党选民的选择产生分化。
[1] 仅做翻译参考。Rank-and-file 字面意思是类似于ordinary，指“普通的”、“无官衔的”。在这里，“rank-and-file voters”指的是正文中的“general election voters”，区别于初选选民，译者注。
Primary voters are frequently characterized as an ideologically extreme subset of their party, and thus partially responsible for party polarization in government. This study uses a combination of administrative records on primary turnout and five recent surveys from 2008–14 to show that primary voters have similar demographic attributes and policy attitudes as rank-and-file voters in their party. These similarities do not vary according to the openness of the primary. These results suggest that the composition of primary electorates does not exert a polarizing effect above what might arise from voters in the party as a whole.
编 译：夏夕钦 王汉林
审 校：夏夕钦 王汉林
相关阅读：
编辑：张梓妍
一审：陈佳林
二审：袁 丁
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