国际顶刊 | 《政治学杂志》2020年第3期（Journal of Politics）
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《政治学杂志》2020年第3期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Journal of Politics（政治学杂志）是美国南方政治科学协会（SPSA）旗下学术期刊，目前由芝加哥大学出版社代为出版。期刊创刊于1939年，出版周期为每年4期，期刊收录范围涵盖政治科学相关的所有细分学科。
期刊研究领域和收录范围包：美国政治、比较政治学、国际关系、政治学理论、政治学方法论。
PART 2
期刊目录
Was There a Culture War? Partisan Polarization and Secular Trends in US Public Opinion
有过文化战争吗？美国舆论中的党派极化与世俗趋势
Why So Secretive? Unpacking Public Attitudes toward Secrecy and Success in US Foreign Policy
缘何如此秘密？揭秘公众对秘密与美国外交政策成功的态度
Quid Pro Quo? Corporate Returns to Campaign Contributions
交换条件？企业回报与竞选捐款
Democracy under High Inequality: Capacity, Spending, and Participation
高度不平等下的民主：能力、花费及参与
The Power to Hurt and the Effectiveness of International Sanctions
伤害的能力及国际制裁的有效性
Local Government Efficiency and Anti-immigrant Violence
地方政府效率与反移民暴力
Creolizing Natural Liberty: Transnational Obligation in the Thought of Ottobah Cugoano
克里奥尔语化的自然自由：Ottobah Cugoano思想中的跨国义务
Dixie’s Drivers: Core Values and the Southern Republican Realignment
南方的驱动因素：核心价值观与南方共和党的重组
Self-Enforcing Partisan Procedures
自我强化的党派程序
Retreat from the Rule of Law: Locke and the Perils of Stand Your Ground
退出法治：洛克与“不退让法”的危险
Less Is More: A Cross-Generational Analysis of the Nature and Role of Racial Attitudes in the Twenty-First Century
少即是多：21世纪种族态度本质与作用的一项代际分析
Leader Age, Death, and Political Liberalization in Dictatorships
独裁政体中的领导人年龄、死亡与政治自由化
Partisan Consumerism: Experimental Tests of Consumer Reactions to Corporate Political Activity
党派消费主义：消费者对企业政治活动反应的实验测试
Industry Politicization and Interest Group Campaign Contribution Strategies
行业政治化与利益集团的竞选捐款策略
“When Olson Meets Dahl”: From Inefficient Groups Formation to Inefficient Policy Making
“当奥尔森遇上达尔”：从低效的团体形成到低效的政策制定
It Is Not Only What You Say, It Is Also How You Say It: The Strategic Use of Campaign Sentiment
关键不仅在于说了什么，还在于如何表达：竞选情绪的策略性利用
Understanding Partisan Cue Receptivity: Tests of Predictions from the Bounded Rationality and Expressive Utility Perspectives
理解党派暗示的接受度:从有限理性和表达效用的角度检验相关预测
On Constitutionalizing a Balanced Budget
论平衡预算的宪法化
Bureaucratic Capacity and Class Voting: Evidence from across the World and the United States
官僚能力与阶级投票：来自世界各地与美国的证据
The Amicus Game
法庭之友
Opportunistic Election Timing, a Complement or Substitute for Economic Manipulation?
机会主义的选举时机：经济操纵的补充抑或替代？
Agreeing to Disagree: Diversity, Political Contractualism, and the Open Society
同意异见：多样性、政治契约主义与开放社会
Do Women Vote Less Correctly? The Effect of Gender on Ideological Proximity Voting and Correct Voting
女性投票的正确性更低吗？性别对意识形态接近的投票和正确投票的影响
Social Welfare Policy Outputs and Governing Parties’ Left-Right Images: Do Voters Respond?
社会福利政策输出与执政党的左右形象：选民有反应吗?
Responsiveness, If You Can Afford It: Policy Responsiveness in Good and Bad Economic Times
回应政策，如果你担得起：经济繁荣及萧条时期的政策响应性
Moderation or Strategy? Political Giving by Corporations and Trade Groups
适度化或策略性？企业与贸易集团的政治献金
National and Subnational Identification in the Syrian Civil War
叙利亚内战中的国家认同与次国家认同
PART 3
精选译文
01 有过文化战争吗？美国舆论中的党派极化与世俗趋势
【题目】
Was There a Culture War? Partisan Polarization and Secular Trends in US Public Opinion
【作者】
Delia Baldassarri and Barum Park,New York University
【摘要】
在很多研究舆论的学者看来，美国民主党和共和党之间在过去几十年来迅速扩大的分歧主要集中在道德议题上。我们发现，议题党派化（即民众根据自己的党派路线对政治偏好进行排序）的过程恰当地解释了在经济和公民权利领域的舆论动态。然而，当转向道德议题时，出现了一个显著的变化，即党派的世俗化趋势：尽管改变的速度不同，民主党人和共和党人都在采取更进步的观点。民主党人是进步观点的较早接纳者，而共和党人则以相对较慢的速度接受了同样的观点。这种世俗化很容易被理解（或误解）为两党极化的信号，因为当这一进程开始时，两党支持者在态度上的分歧由于民主党接受进步观点时速度更快而扩大了，而只有到了这一进程的最后，两党支持者之间的分歧才会减小。
According to many scholars of public opinion, most of the fast-growing divides between Democrats and Republicans over the last few decades have taken place on moral issues. We find that the process of issue partisanship—the sorting of political preferences along partisan lines—properly accounts for public opinion dynamics in the economic and civil rights domains. However, when it comes to moral issues, the prominent change is a partisan secular trend, in which both Democrats and Republicans are adopting more progressive views, although at a different rate. While Democrats are early adopters of progressive views, Republicans adopt the same views at a slower pace. This secular change can be easily (mis)interpreted as a sign of polarization since, at the onset of the process, the gap between party supporters broadens because of the faster pace at which Democrats adopt progressive views, and only toward the end, the gap between partisan supporters decreases.
02 缘何如此秘密？揭秘公众对秘密与美国外交政策成功的态度
【题目】
Why So Secretive? Unpacking Public Attitudes toward Secrecy and Success in US Foreign Policy
【作者】
Rachel Myrick Stanford University
【摘要】
外交政策制定中的透明度对民主政体的公众有多大影响？学者和政策制定者在提出对外交事务透明度的规范性承诺，这一固有假设包含在许多现有的国际政治模型中。本文运用三个关于秘密行动的原始调查实验，检验国际安全中是否存在“透明度规范”。通过保持冲突的环境与结果不变，进而操控外交行动是否对美国公众保密这一变量，本文复原了公众对秘密行动的态度。接着，通过探索在某些情况下，是否无论政策结果如何，国家安全中的秘密对于公众都是不可接受的，本文揭示了一个“目的”和“手段”的权衡。这研究结果表明，民主政体的公众只有对外交政策透明度的微弱偏好：他们更关心的是美国外交政策的结果，而不是政策制定的过程。
To what extent does transparency in foreign policy making matter to democratic publics? Scholars and policy makers posit a normative commitment to transparency in the conduct of foreign affairs, an assumption baked into many existing models of international politics. This article tests the existence of a “transparency norm” in international security using three original survey experiments about covert action. I recover attitudes toward covert operations by holding the circumstances and outcomes of conflicts constant and manipulating whether foreign involvement was kept secret from the American public. Then, I unpack an “ends” and “means” trade-off by exploring whether there are conditions under which secrecy in national security is unacceptable to the public, regardless of policy outcomes. The findings demonstrate that democratic publics have only a weak preference for transparency: they care substantially more about the outcomes of US foreign policy rather than the process by which the policy was created.
03 交换条件？企业回报与竞选捐款
【题目】
Quid Pro Quo? Corporate Returns to Campaign Contributions
【作者】
Anthony Fowler, University of Chicago
Haritz Garro and Jörg L. Spenkuch. Northwestern University
【摘要】
学者、权威人士和政治改革家长期以来担心着这样一种情况：企业通过向政客捐款，扭曲了公共政策，进而推翻了选民的意愿。尽管上述情况广为人知，但是企业是否真正或者在多大程度上受益于支持政治候选人的行为仍然是未知的。为了系统地回答这一问题，我们利用了两个相互补充的实证方法：这一方法将企业从其支持的胜选候选人办公室获得的金钱利益中分离出来。首先，我们使用了一个断点回归(RD)设计来研究接近的国会、州长和州立法机构选举。第二，我们考虑了竞选期间对美国参议院竞选结果的市场信心变化。我们发现，尚未有任何证据表明，企业从选举获得他们政治行动委员会(PACs)支持的候选人中获利、此外，我们可以在统计上防止效应值大于企业价值的0.3%。研究结果表示，企业的竞选捐款不能买到重要的政治支持——至少一般来说不是这样。
Scholars, pundits, and political reformers have long worried that corporations distort public policy and subvert the will of the electorate by donating to politicians. Well-publicized anecdotes notwithstanding, whether and how much corporations actually benefit from supporting political candidates remains unknown. To systematically address this question, we utilize two complementary empirical approaches that isolate the monetary benefits a company derives from a favored candidate winning office. First, we use a regression discontinuity design exploiting close congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections. Second, we leverage within-campaign changes in market beliefs about the outcomes of US Senate races. We find no evidence that corporations benefit from electing candidates supported by their PACs, and we can statistically reject effect sizes greater than 0.3% of firm value. Our results suggest that corporate campaign contributions do not buy significant political favors—at least not on average.
04 高度不平等下的民主：能力、花费及参与
【题目】
Democracy under High Inequality: Capacity, Spending, and Participation
【作者】
Francesc Amat, University of Barcelona
Pablo Beramendi, Duke University
【摘要】
与不平等会降低投票率的观点相反，在高度不平等和国家能力中等的民主政体中，低收入选民的政治参与程度更高。我们通过分析不同不平等程度和不同国家能力下政治动员与支出决策之间的关系，回答了上述疑惑。在高度不平等和国家能力较低的情况下，政党发现定向商品动员低收入选民是最理想的做法。然而，随着国家能力的提高，定向动员成为了选民动员的较为低效的策略。为了评估这一观点的意涵，我们利用了一个准自然实验——巴西政府的反腐败审计。本文证明，国家监控工作的外生性增长打破了穷人高度政治参与的平衡，导致了投票率的下降、定向商品供应的减少以及现任总统连任可能性的下降。
Contrary to the view that inequality reduces turnout, political participation among low-income voters is higher in democracies with high levels of inequality and intermediate levels of state capacity. We address this puzzle by analyzing the link between political mobilization and spending decisions at different levels of inequality and state capacity. Under high inequality and low levels of capacity, parties find it optimal to mobilize low-income voters via targeted goods. Yet, as capacity increases, targeted mobilization becomes a less effective strategy for voters’ mobilization. To evaluate the implications of this argument we exploit a quasi-natural experiment, the anticorruption audits by the Brazilian government. We show that an exogenous increase in monitoring effort by the state breaks the equilibrium around high participation of the poor and leads to a reduction in turnout, a reduction in the provision of targeted goods, and a decline in the likelihood of reelection by incumbents.
05 伤害的能力及国际制裁的有效性
【题目】
The Power to Hurt and the Effectiveness of International Sanctions
【作者】
Kerim Can Kavaklı, Bocconi University
J. Tyson Chatagnier, University of Houston
Emre Hatipoğlu, Sabancı University
【摘要】
尽管贸易中断成本在国家间冲突理论中处于核心地位，学者们在构建适当的贸易战措施方面遇到了困难，也很少有学者探讨过国家如何降低由此产生的成本、降低对经济胁迫的脆弱性等问题。我们在经济制裁的背景下研究了这些问题，认为冲突双方在出口和国内生产能力上的比较优势决定了使贸易中断成本最小化并同时使伤害对手的能力最大化的能力。通过运用商品层面的贸易数据，我们为上述假设找到了支持。当制裁者在向制裁对象出口的商品上具有比较优势时，制裁就更有可能成功。而当制裁对象的出口组合多样化，或者在出口方面具有比较优势时，制裁则更有可能失败。这一假设尤其适用于进口制裁。这些发现打开了制裁成本的黑箱，完善了我们对“经济胁迫何时会成功”这一问题的理解。
Although costs of trade disruption play a central role in theories of interstate conflict, scholars have had difficulty in constructing appropriate measures of trade wars, and few have explored how states can mitigate the resulting costs, reducing vulnerability to economic coercion. We study these questions in the context of economic sanctions, arguing that each side’s comparative advantage in exports and domestic production capabilities determine its ability to minimize costs while maximizing its power to hurt the adversary. We find support for our hypotheses, using commodity-level trade data. Sanctions are more likely to succeed when sanctioners have a comparative advantage in goods exported to the target, but more likely to fail if the target’s export portfolio is diverse or the target has a comparative advantage in exports. This is particularly true for imposed sanctions. These findings open the black box of sanction costs, improving our understanding of when economic coercion succeeds.
06 地方政府效率与反移民暴力
【题目】
Local Government Efficiency and Anti-immigrant Violence
【作者】
Conrad Ziller, University of Cologne
Sara Wallace Goodman, University of California, Irvine
【摘要】
社区为本地人与移民的互动提供了一个至关重要的经验背景，但我们对地方政府在塑造公众对移民的反应上的影响知之甚少。对于“建立高效的政府是促进移民融合和减轻移民政治剥削的关键因素”这一论断，我们认为，高效的地方政府同时也在减少反移民暴力中发挥了至关重要的作用。运用成本效率模型生成地方政府效率的衡量指标，本文证明，在2015年德国史无前例地接纳了大量难民，这一时期，高地方政府效率与更少的反移民暴力事件之间具有联系。为检验上述理论的更广泛含义，我们采用了荷兰各城市地方政府效率的纵向数据，并结合了针对移民犯罪的警方记录（2012—2015）。双向固定效应模型的结果显示，地方政府效率与反移民暴力之间存在系统的负向关联。本文的结果表明，提高地方治理水平可以对群体间关系产生有益影响。
Communities provide a crucial experiential context for native-immigrant interactions, yet we know little about the impact of local government performance on shaping public responses to immigrants. Building on arguments considering efficient governments as critical factors in facilitating immigrant integration and mitigating denizens' political deprivation, we argue that efficient local governments also play a significant role in reducing anti-immigrant behavior. Using cost efficiency modeling to generate a measure of local government efficiency (LGE), we show high LGE is associated with fewer incidents of anti-immigrant violence in Germany during its unprecedented refugee intake in 2015. Testing the broader implications of our theory, we employ longitudinal data on LGE of Dutch municipalities merged with police records of criminal offenses against immigrants (2012–15). Results from two-way fixed effects models show a systematic, negative link between efficiency and violence. Our results suggest that improving local governance can have salutary benefits on intergroup relations.
07 克里奥尔语化的自然自由：Ottobah Cugoano思想中的跨国义务
【题目】
Creolizing Natural Liberty: Transnational Obligation in the Thought of Ottobah Cugoano
【作者】
Conrad Ziller, University of Cologne
Sara Wallace Goodman, University of California, Irvine
【摘要】
尽管自然自由（natural liberty）的概念在废奴运动中扮演了重要的角色，黑人废奴主义者对于这一概念的挪用一般被归纳为启蒙运动时期的政治理论范畴。通过对Thoughts and Sentiments on the Evil of Slavery一书的分析，本文主张，废奴主义者Ottobah Cugoano通过一个克里奥尔语化的过程发展了一种新的自然自由概念。Cugoano并没有全盘采用欧洲政治思想，而是将自然自由与西非社会实践及被奴役者的经验相融合，重新解释了自然权利哲学的范畴。他主要的理论创新在于将自然自由从作为对自我的所有权的自由中剥离出来，使其不再侧重于自我占有、私有财产和个人权利，而是聚焦于终止奴隶贸易的跨国义务。Cugoano是超越了欧洲政治传统局限的黑人跨国思想这一独特传统的代表和源头。
Although the concept of natural liberty played an essential role in the abolitionist movement, black abolitionist appropriations of the concept are generally reduced to Enlightenment categories of political theory. Through an analysis of Thoughts and Sentiments on the Evil of Slavery, I argue that the abolitionist Ottobah Cugoano developed a novel conception of natural liberty through a process of creolization. Rather than a wholesale adoption of European political thought, Cugoano reinterpreted categories of natural rights philosophy by blending natural liberty with West African social practice and the experiences of the enslaved. His primary theoretical innovation was to divorce natural liberty from freedom as self-ownership and to reorient the concept away from a focus on self-possession, private property, and individual rights toward transnational obligations to end the slave trade. Cugoano is both representative and originator of a distinct tradition of black transnational thought that exceeds the limitations of European political traditions.
08 南方的驱动因素：核心价值观与南方共和党的重组
【题目】
Dixie’s Drivers: Core Values and the Southern Republican Realignment
【作者】
Robert N. Lupton, University of Connecticut
Seth C. McKee, Oklahoma State University
【摘要】
学界认为始于20世纪60年代的美国南方的历史性党派变革是政治和经济因素综合作用的结果，然而之前没有任何研究强调过个人的基本信仰和党派归属变化之间的联系。使用1988年至2016年的美国全国选举研究(American National Election Studies, ANES)数据，我们证明了相比于非南方人，平等主义和道德传统主义更有可能影响南方人的政党归属。在我们早期的分析中，南方人并没有像其他公民一样将他们的核心价值观与党派归属联系起来——这要归结于在南方所实行的一党制的残余。但随着时间的推移，南方人的核心价值观和党派归属之间的关系显著加强。此外，1992-1996年的面板数据显示，平等主义尤其影响南方人的党派归属（反之则不然）。我们的研究结果表明，核心价值观对于理解南方共和党的重组以及南方人持久的政治独特性是不可或缺的。
Scholarly accounts attribute the American South’s historic partisan transformation that began in the 1960s to a combination of political and economic factors, but no prior work emphasizes the connection between individuals’ fundamental beliefs and partisan change. Using pooled American National Election Studies (ANES) data from 1988 to 2016, we show that egalitarianism and moral traditionalism are more likely to influence southerners’ party affiliation relative to non-southerners. Southerners did not connect their core values to the same extent as other citizens in the early years of our analysis—owing to the vestiges of a one-party system operating in Dixie. But over time, the relationship between core values and partisanship among southerners strengthened remarkably. Moreover, 1992–96 panel data show that egalitarianism in particular influences southern partisanship (but not vice versa). Our results reveal that core values are integral to understanding the southern Republican realignment and southerners’ persistent political distinctiveness.
09 自我强化的党派程序
【题目】
Self-Enforcing Partisan Procedures
【作者】
Daniel Diermeier, University of Chicago
Carlo Prato, Columbia University
Razvan Vlaicu, Inter-American Development Bank
【摘要】
利用集体决策的多阶段模型，我们研究了立法机构中的党派极化如何影响程序规则的最初选择和未来修订。我们分析了在未来立法者政策偏好极化这一不确定的条件下，一个立法机构如何分配政策决策的提案权。我们的“极化”概念包含政策偏好上的政党内部和政党间的异质性。本文表明，大多数程序是具有党派性且自我强化的，也就是说，即使立法机构将提案权集中于少数（非中位数）多数党派成员中，这些程序也会在未来修订中幸存。这导致了一个系统性的支持多数党派的政策偏见。然而，政党极化的增加可能不会导致多数党派中提案权的进一步集中。这一模型提供了一个统一的分析框架来评估一个长期存在的、关于美国国会中党派影响的基础性理论。
Using a multistage model of collective decision making, we study how partisan polarization in legislatures affects the initial choice and future revision of procedural rules. We analyze how a legislature allocates proposal power over policy decisions under uncertainty about the future polarization in policy preferences among legislators. Our notion of polarization encompasses both intra- and interparty heterogeneity in policy preferences. We show that majority procedures are partisan and self-enforcing, that is, survive future revisions even though they concentrate proposal power in the hands of a few (nonmedian) majority party members. This leads to systematic promajority policy bias. Increased polarization, however, may not increase the concentration of proposal power within the majority party. The model provides a unified analytical framework to evaluate a long-standing debate about the foundations of partisan influence in the US Congress.
10 放弃法治：洛克与“不退让法”的危险
【题目】
Retreat from the Rule of Law: Locke and the Perils of Stand Your Ground
【作者】
Susan Liebell, Saint Joseph’s University
【摘要】
约翰·洛克以与美国“不退让法”相似的方式提出了他的自卫概念: 以个人自由的名义进行的致命报复。深究普通法中的一对区分——正当杀人（justifiable homicide）与可宽恕杀人（excusable homicide）——凸显了洛克是如何同时支持（1）以个人自由为基础、通过个体判断与行动实现的自然法（正当杀人），以及（2）以集体自由和平等为基础、通过脱离个人控制的外在执法程序实现的法治（可宽恕杀人）两者的。尽管正当杀人的洛克式激进版本没有充分地考虑偏见和私利是如何扭曲判断、削弱法治的，可宽恕杀人要求的放弃（retreat）仍可能改善偏见的几种影响。这一关于致命自卫的分析完善了我们对洛克政治思想的理解，并提供了一个评估当前关于会影响自由政府的“不退让法”之争的视角。
John Locke presents self-defense in a way similar to American Stand Your Ground laws: lethal retribution in the name of individual freedom. Interrogating a common law distinction—justifiable versus excusable homicide—highlights how Locke supports both (1) a law of nature grounded in individual freedom and achieved through individual judgment and action (justifiable homicide) and (2) a rule of law founded on collective freedom and equality and actualized through external law enforcement and procedures removed from individual control (excusable homicide). Although Locke’s radical version of justified homicide insufficiently considers how bias and self-interest distort judgment and undercut the rule of law, excusable homicide’s requirement of retreat might ameliorate several effects of bias. This analysis of lethal self-defense improves our understanding of Locke’s political thought and provides a lens for assessing current controversies over Stand Your Ground that have consequences for liberal government.
11 少即是多：21世纪种族态度本质与作用的一项代际分析
【题目】
Less Is More: A Cross-Generational Analysis of the Nature and Role of Racial Attitudes in the Twenty-First Century
【作者】
Christopher D. DeSante, Indiana University
Candis Watts Smith, Pennsylvania State University
【摘要】
在具有里程碑意义的《民权法案》（1964）实施之后，学者们提供的证据表明，相比于吉姆·克劳时期（即种族隔离时期），白人的种族态度的本质和结构发生了变化。他们设计了一些调查问题来捕捉更新的、更可被忍受的种族敌意形式。从中产生的、最受当下实证关注的一个量表是种族仇恨量表。自该量表最初制定以来，美国的种族状况发生了巨大变化，基于此，我们提出了质疑：即这一量表是否能同样有效地测量不同代际群体的种族态度。我们展示了两个重要发现：在种族怨恨的总体水平上，年轻白人的态度并没有显示任何具有意义的变化。第二，也是更重要的一点，我们发现，虽然年轻白人似乎种族怨恨程度更低，但量表中的调查项目更多反映的是年轻白人所拥有的过时的反黑人情绪。因此，当谈到千禧一代的种族态度时，“少即是多”。
After landmark Civil Rights legislation was implemented, scholars provided evidence that the nature and structure of whites’ racial attitudes changed from the Jim Crow era. They devised survey questions to capture newer, more acceptable forms of racial animus. One scale that came out of this effort and that receives the most empirical attention today is the racial resentment scale. Given the vast changes the American racial landscape has undergone since that scale was originally developed, we question whether this set of measures is related to racial attitudes in the same way across generational cohorts. We show two key findings: younger whites are not bringing about any meaningful change in the aggregate levels of racial resentment. Second, and more importantly, we show that while younger whites appear to have lower levels of racial resentment, these survey items are more strongly related to old-fashioned antiblack affect among younger whites. Thus, when it comes to millennials’ racial attitudes, “less is more.”
12 独裁政体中的领导人年龄、死亡与政治自由化
【题目】
Leader Age, Death, and Political Liberalization in Dictatorships
【作者】
Sarah Hummel, Harvard University
【摘要】
本文研究了独裁者死亡可能性的预期是如何影响政权内部人士和潜在挑战者的战略考量的。一方面，随着独裁者年龄的增长，想成为改革者的人在计划和执行死后挑战时处于更有利的局面。另一方面，政权内部人士会预料到这些挑战，并尝试预先主动地解决政治继承的问题。领导人死亡的环境决定了哪一种相互竞争的影响力会占主导。相应地，在个人独裁政体中（相比于非个人独裁政体），以及在经济发展水平较高的国家中（相比于经济发展水平较低的国家），领导人的死亡更能推进政治的自由化。此外，在个人独裁政体中，随着领导人年龄的增长以及死亡的临近，先发制人的行动（如政变企图和不定期的政治清洗）将会更多。
This article examines how expectations about the likelihood of a dictator’s death affect the strategic calculations of regime insiders and potential challengers. On the one hand, would-be reformers are better positioned to plan and execute post-death challenges as dictators age. On the other hand, regime insiders anticipate these challenges and try to proactively solve the problem of political succession. The circumstances surrounding leader death determine which of these competing effects dominates. Accordingly, leader death is more liberalizing as leaders age in personalist regimes compared to nonpersonalist regimes, and in countries with high levels of economic development compared to those with low levels of development. Furthermore, preemptive actions in personalist dictatorships, such as coup attempts and irregular removals, are more likely as leaders age and their death becomes imminent.
13 党派消费主义：消费者对企业政治活动反应的实验测试
【题目】
Partisan Consumerism: Experimental Tests of Consumer Reactions to Corporate Political Activity
【作者】
Costas Panagopoulos, Northeastern University
Donald P. Green, Columbia University
Jonathan Krasno, Binghamton University
Michael Schwam-Baird, Grow Progress
Kyle Endres, Duke University
【摘要】
当消费者了解到企业的党派忠诚度时，他们的消费偏好会发生多大程度的改变？为了回答这个问题，我们进行了一系列的实验。在实验中，民主党人和共和党人获知了关于企业政治捐款的真实信息。实验结果通过两方面来衡量：表达出的购物意图和显现出的消费者偏好。受访者明显更多（更少）倾向于光顾那些支持（反对）他所属党派的连锁店。无论是在任意抽样样本还是有代表性的全国性样本，以及无论（关于企业政治捐款的）信息是在调查的背景中传递还是通过直接邮件不经意地传递，这一影响始终存在。上述影响在那些具有强烈党派依附性的受访者中尤其明显。最后，我们进行了总结，并指出随着社交媒体的出现，党派消费主义盛行的可能性已经上升，但可能会被更加容许不公开的企业捐赠的竞选财政系统所削弱。
To what extent do consumers’ preferences change when they learn about firms’ partisan allegiances? We address this question by conducting a series of experiments in which Democrats and Republicans were presented with factual information about corporate political donations. Outcomes were measured through expressed shopping intentions as well as a revealed consumer preference. Respondents became significantly more (less) likely to patronize chains that support (oppose) their party. The effects are found for both convenience samples and representative national samples and when information is conveyed in the context of a survey or unobtrusively via direct mail. Effects are especially large among those with strong partisan attachments. We conclude by arguing that the potential for partisan consumerism has risen with the advent of social media but may be undermined by a campaign finance system that increasingly allows for undisclosed corporate donations.
14 行业政治化与利益集团的竞选捐款策略
【题目】
Industry Politicization and Interest Group Campaign Contribution Strategies
【作者】
Michael Barber, Brigham Young University
Mandi Eatough, University of Michigan
【摘要】
本文提出一个新理论：利益集团的捐赠行为会因其所属行业的政治化程度而有所不同。伴随这一理论，利用1999年至2014年美国报纸中提到的投稿者的行业和党派关键词，我们提出了一个对行业政治化的新实证测量方法。通过运用双重差分法，本文表明：随着行业政治化程度的提升，政治行动委员会(PAC)采取进入权导向型（access-oriented，注：即支持更有可能胜选的候选人）的捐赠策略的可能性下降，而采取意识形态导向的捐赠策略的可能性则增加了。我们的研究结果表明，不同利益群体之间存在着显著的差异，然而，在将政治行动委员会的捐赠策略作为更大的子群体的一部分以考虑时，这一差异往往被忽略。此外，我们的结果阐明了那些利益集团通过战略性地放置竞选捐款以试图参与立法程序的政策领域。
In this article we develop a new theory that interest group donation behavior will vary based on the politicization of industries that a particular group works in. With this theory, we develop a new empirical measure of industry politicization using mentions of contributor industry and partisan keywords in newspapers in the United States from 1999 to 2014. We show using a difference-in-differences model that as industry politicization increases, the likelihood of a political action committee (PAC) using an access-oriented donation strategy decreases and the likelihood of a PAC using an ideologically oriented donation strategy increases. Our results indicate that there is significant variation across interest groups that is often ignored when considering PACs’ donation strategies as parts of broad subgroups. Furthermore, these results illuminate the policy areas in which interest groups seek access to the legislative process via strategically placed campaign contributions.
15 “当奥尔森遇上达尔”：从低效的团体形成到低效的政策制定
【题目】
“When Olson Meets Dahl”: From Inefficient Groups Formation to Inefficient Policy Making
【作者】
Perrin Lefebvre and David Martimort
【摘要】
两个相互冲突的利益集团均从一位政策制定者那里寻觅支持。考虑到游说者计划视决策结果而决定其政治献金，利益集团的影响力可以被构建为一个共同代理模型。当利益集团成员的偏好是公开的，则团体会高效地得以组建，游说竞争也会良好地整合偏好。相反，当集团的偏好是私人信息，则在团体内部会产生集体行动中的搭便车行为。搭便车行为意味着团体的影响力被弱化，也意味着利益集团的游说竞争无法很好地整合偏好。通过减少游说竞争，私人信息也可能增加利益集团的收益，损害政策制定者的利益。重要的一点是，在均衡状态下，每个团体的内部信息摩擦程度是被共同决定的。我们从上述发现中得到了许多对利益集团的组织的启示。
Two conflicting interest groups buy favor from a policy maker. Influence is modeled as a common-agency game with lobbyists proposing monetary contributions contingent on decisions. When the preferences of the group members are common knowledge, groups form efficiently and lobbying competition perfectly aggregates preferences. When those preferences are instead private information, free riding in collective action arises within groups. Free riding implies that the influence of a group is weakened and that lobbying competition imperfectly aggregates preferences. By softening lobbying competition, private information might also increase groups’ payoffs and hurt the policy maker. Importantly, the magnitudes of informational frictions within each group are jointly determined at equilibrium. We draw from these findings a number of implications for the organization of interest groups.
16 关键不仅在于说了什么，还在于如何表达：竞选情绪的策略性利用
【题目】
It Is Not Only What You Say, It Is Also How You Say It: The Strategic Use of Campaign Sentiment
【作者】
Charles Crabtree, Matt Golder, Thomas Gschwend, andIndriđi H. Indriđason
【摘要】
何以解释政党竞选活动的类型？本文提供了一种观察竞选活动的新视角：关注对于情绪化语言的策略性运用。本文认为，政党在竞选活动中运用积极情绪的程度取决于其是否当政、其政治立场以及客观的经济条件。本文运用一个新的数据集来检验上述结论，该数据集从8个欧洲国家的400余个政党宣言中捕捉出其情绪化的语言。与预测相一致，本文发现现任政党，特别是首相所在的现任政党，比反对党更多使用积极情绪；意识形态温和的政党比极端性政党更多使用积极情绪。此外，本文亦发现，所有政党在经济下行的时候的积极情绪不高，然而其负面作用对现任政党而言较为微弱。本文的分析对竞选策略和回顾性投票的研究具有重要启示。
What explains the type of electoral campaign run by political parties? We provide a new perspective on campaigns that focuses on the strategic use of emotive language. We argue that the level of positive sentiment parties adopt in their campaigns depends on their incumbency status, their policy position, and objective economic conditions. We test these claims with a novel data set that captures the emotive language used in over 400 party manifestos across eight European countries. As predicted, we find that incumbent parties, particularly incumbent prime ministerial parties, use more positive sentiment than opposition parties. We find that ideologically moderate parties employ higher levels of positive sentiment than extremist parties. And we find that all parties exhibit lower levels of positive sentiment when the economy is performing poorly but that this negative effect is weaker for incumbents. Our analysis has important implications for research on campaign strategies and retrospective voting.
17 理解党派暗示的接受度：从有限理性和表达效用的角度检验相关预测
【题目】
Understanding Partisan Cue Receptivity: Tests of Predictions from the Bounded Rationality and Expressive Utility Perspectives
【作者】
Bert N. Bakker,Yphtach Lelkes, andAriel Malka
【摘要】
为什么公民在做出政治判断时依赖于党派暗示（partisan cue）？通过一系列调查实验，本文评估了使用党派暗示的两种动机的相对重要性。本文并未发现支持有限理性假设的相关依据，该假设认为，暗示的接受度在低认知资源的公民中最高。与此同时，本文发现表达效用假设得到了一定的支持，即在具有强烈的党派社会认同和高认知资源的人群中，党派暗示的接受度最高。表达效用假设的证据强度在不同研究、认知层面的资源方法和暗示条件比较中有所不同。研究结果表明，党派暗示的接受度更多地涉及到为实现身份表达的目标而努力利用认知资源，而不是努力弥补低认知资源。
Why do citizens rely on partisan cues when forming political judgments? We assess the relative importance of two motives for partisan cue-following using a series of survey experiments. We find no support for the bounded rationality hypothesis that cue receptivity is highest among citizens with low cognitive resources. Meanwhile, we find mixed support for the expressive utility hypothesis that cue receptivity is highest among people with both a strong partisan social identification and high cognitive resources. The strength of this latter evidence varies across studies, cognitive resource measures, and cue condition comparisons. The results suggest that partisan cue receptivity more often involves an effort to harness cognitive resources for the goal of identity expression than an effort to compensate for low cognitive resources.
18 论平衡预算的宪法化
【题目】
On Constitutionalizing a Balanced Budget
【作者】
Joe Amick,Terrence Chapman, andZachary Elkins
【摘要】
授权平衡预算的宪法规则能促进财政纪律吗？尽管这些规则是世界各地紧缩性政策辩论的核心，但人们对其后果知之甚少。本文利用宪法预算规定的原始数据，分析其对政府基本预算平衡的影响。本文发现，要求平衡预算的宪法规则与财政原则密切相关。即使在控制了法定平衡预算规则之后，宪法效应仍然存在。此外，随着修改宪法愈加困难，并且在现存边际偿付能力的情况下，这种效应不断加强——这与宪法影响相一致。对于那些既认识到反对财政纪律的强大压力，也认识到政府在制定策略、规避支出限制方面的创造力的人来说，上述结果将会是让人惊讶的。上述发现为许多国家围绕金融危机的政策辩论提供了参考。
Do constitutional rules that mandate a balanced budget promote fiscal discipline? Although such rules are at the heart of austerity debates across the world, we know surprisingly little about their consequences. We leverage original data on constitutional budget provisions and analyze their effect on governments’ primary budget balances. We find that constitutional rules that require balanced budgets are robustly associated with fiscal discipline. The constitutional effect remains even after controlling for statutory balanced-budget rules. Furthermore, the effect strengthens as constitutions become more difficult to amend and under conditions of borderline solvency—two implications consistent with a constitutional impact. The results will be surprising to those who appreciate both the strong pressures against fiscal discipline and the creativity of governments in devising strategies to evade spending limits. These findings provide a reference point for policy debates surrounding financial crises in many national contexts.
19 官僚能力与阶级投票：来自世界各地与美国的证据
【题目】
Bureaucratic Capacity and Class Voting: Evidence from across the World and the United States
【作者】
Kimuli Kasara and Pavithra Suryanarayan
【摘要】
为什么某些地区的穷人和富人分别支持不同的政党？本文认为，在所在州可以对富人的收入和资产征税的地区，按照阶级立场投票的现象更为普遍。在官僚能力较低的州，富人参与选举政治的可能性比较小，因为他们对再分配政策的恐惧更少。而当富人放弃投票时，政治家们面对的是愈加贫困化的选民。由于政治家们无法令人信服地进行反税收性质的竞选活动，他们不太可能强调再分配，不同收入群体的党派偏好也不太可能出现分歧。利用跨国调查数据，本文发现在官僚能力较强的国家，阶级投票现象出现较多。本文亦表明，在20世纪30年代中期的美国，州一级的税收和政党制度对国家经济政策的依赖程度较低，阶级投票与财政能力之间存在一定的关联性。
Why do the rich and poor support different parties in some places? We argue that voting along class lines is more likely to occur where states can tax the income and assets of the wealthy. In low bureaucratic capacity states, the rich are less likely to participate in electoral politics because they have less to fear from redistributive policy. When wealthy citizens abstain from voting, politicians face a more impoverished electorate. Because politicians cannot credibly campaign on antitax platforms, they are less likely to emphasize redistribution and partisan preferences are less likely to diverge across income groups. Using cross-national survey data, we show that there is more class voting in countries with greater bureaucratic capacity. We also show that class voting and fiscal capacity were correlated in the United States in the mid-1930s when state-level revenue collection and party systems were less dependent on national economic policy.
20 法庭之友
【题目】
The Amicus Game
【作者】
Peter Bils, Lawrence S. Rothenberg, and Bradley C. Smith
【摘要】
尽管越来越多的学者开始关注非当事人意见陈述对案件结果的影响，我们仍缺乏一个微观模型来理解我们观察到的情况。本文的分析填补了这种缺位，建立了一个模型，假定在世界上，潜在的备案者可以为特定的裁决辩护，也可以提供信息以影响法官的判决。本文表明，非当事人意见陈述的影响取决于群体性偏见和环境因素的相互作用。具体来说，偏颇组的影响对每个案例的特征（如问题的利害关系）都比较敏感，而偏见程度适中的组的影响则相对稳定。本文的发现亦与实证研究相关，研究表明，在未能考虑到战略性的群体行为的情况下，用观测数据分析该影响的路径很可能会遭到破坏。值得注意的是，除非研究人员在每个特定案例中都考虑到每个团体的利益，否则只分析已归档的非当事人意见陈述将会使得对影响力的估计产生偏差。
Despite increased scholarly attention toward analyzing the influence of amicus briefs on case outcomes, we lack a microfounded model for understanding what we observe. Our analysis remedies this gap, modeling a world in which potential filers can advocate for a particular ruling and may provide information to influence a judge’s decision. We show that the influence of an amicus brief depends on the interaction of the group’s bias and contextual factors. Specifically, while the influence of biased groups is sensitive to features of each case, such as the stakes of the issue, moderate group influence is relatively stable. Our findings are also relevant for empirical studies; they indicate that analyses of influence with observational data are likely undermined by a failure to account for strategic group behavior. Notably, analyzing only filed briefs will generate biased estimates of influence unless the researcher accounts for a group’s interest in each particular case.
21 机会主义的选举时机：经济操纵的补充抑或替代？
【题目】
Opportunistic Election Timing, a Complement or Substitute for Economic Manipulation?
【作者】
Tristin Beckman and Petra Schleiter
【摘要】
议会制政府经常利用其权力来增加其连任的机会。然而，对于他们是如何将两种最常见的策略——选举前的经济操纵和机会主义的选举时机——结合起来的，人们仍知之甚少。现任政府是否会同时使用这两种策略？还是控制选举时机的能力降低了现任政府进行扭曲性经济操纵的动机？以往的研究对上述问题给出了相互矛盾的答案。本文利用20个发达议会民主制国家的相关数据，首次对机会主义选举时机对经济操纵的影响进行了跨国比较分析，从而推动了这场理论之争。本文的研究结果有效证明了一种替代效应：当领导人能够掌控选举时间时，他们操纵经济的可能性就会大大降低。这一发现不仅证明了上述论争的结果，而且对旨在防止现任政府将选举结果向有利于己的方向转变的政治改革具有切实的启示。
Parliamentary governments often use their powers opportunistically to enhance their reelection chances. Yet, how they combine the two most commonly available strategies—economic manipulation prior to elections and opportunistic election timing—remains poorly understood. Do incumbents employ these powers jointly, or does the power to time elections temper incentives to engage in distortive economic manipulation? Previous research gives contradictory answers to these questions. We advance the debate by presenting the first cross-national comparative analysis of the effects of opportunistic election timing on economic manipulation, drawing on data from 20 developed parliamentary democracies. Our results demonstrate a powerful substitution effect: when leaders can time elections, they are significantly less likely to manipulate the economy. This finding not only clarifies the theoretical debate, it also has practical implications for political reforms that aim to prevent incumbents from distorting elections in their favor.
22 同意异见：多样性、政治契约主义与开放社会
【题目】
Agreeing to Disagree: Diversity, Political Contractualism, and the Open Society
【作者】
John Thrasher
【摘要】
政治契约主义在具有大量道德分歧、政治分歧的多样化社会中十分重要。这些分歧使得社会契约具有其必要性，但也会导致很难达成一致。上述情况被称为“多样性悖论”（paradox of diversity），这一悖论是存在与稳定性（政治契约主义的两大必要条件）之间的张力所导致的结果。“存在”表明达成某种其他协议的可能性，而“稳定性”表明原协议可以持续下去。为了解决上述问题，本文提出了一个多层次的契约理论，称为政治契约主义的“开放社会”模型，它在不同层次上将多样性融入契约模型，解决了“存在”的问题，同时规避了处理“稳定性”问题时的脆弱性。这种研究方法能够利用多样性体制的好处，并为吸纳有意义的政治分歧提供一个稳定的框架。
Political contractualism is important in societies characterized by substantial moral and political disagreement and diversity. The very disagreement that makes the social contract necessary, however, also makes agreement difficult. Call this the paradox of diversity, which is the result of a tension between two necessary conditions of political contractualism: existence and stability. The first involves showing the possibility of some agreement, while the second involves showing that the agreement can persist. To solve both of these problems, I develop a multilevel contract theory that I call the “open society” model of political contractualism that incorporates diversity into the contractual model at different levels solving the existence problem, while avoiding fragility in the face of the stability problem. This approach is able to take advantage of the benefits of institutional diversity while providing a stable framework for productive political disagreement.
23 女性投票的正确性更低吗？性别对意识形态接近的投票和正确投票的影响
【题目】
Do Women Vote Less Correctly? The Effect of Gender on Ideological Proximity Voting and Correct Voting（译者注：正确投票（Voting correctly）这一概念由Richard R. Lau等人于1997年提出，正确的投票选择即是选民在假设具有完全信息下的投票选择。）
【作者】
Ruth Dassonneville,Mary K. Nugent,Marc Hooghe, andRichard Lau
【摘要】
通常情况下，研究认为女性的政治知识水平低于男性。这种性别之间的差距通常被认为是民主制度的麻烦，因为缺乏政治知识可能意味着妇女参与政治的效率较低，她们的利益将无法像男性那样得到良好的代表。这篇简短的文章中提出了一个直接的测试，来检验一个假设：即由于缺乏政治知识，女性选民的参政有效性较低。本文利用选举制度比较研究数据库（CSES），来研究意识形态接近性投票和正确投票中的性别差异。本文的结果并没有表明女性的投票的正确性低于男性——这一结论提出了一些值得进一步思考的关于不同形式的政治知识的作用和投票选择的看似性别化的本质的重要问题。
Studies routinely find that women have lower levels of political knowledge than men. This gender gap is usually interpreted as troublesome for democracy, because a lack of political knowledge could imply that women’s participation in politics is less effective and that their interests will be represented less well than those of men. In this short article, we present a direct test of the assumption that women are less effective voters because of this lack of political knowledge. We make use of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data to study gender differences in proximity voting and correct voting. Our results do not suggest that women vote less correctly than men—a conclusion that prompts important questions about the role of different forms of political knowledge and the seemingly gendered nature of the vote choice.
24 社会福利政策输出与执政党的左右形象：选民有反应吗?
【题目】
Social Welfare Policy Outputs and Governing Parties’ Left-Right Images: Do Voters Respond?
【作者】
James Adams, Luca Bernardi, and Christopher Wlezien
【摘要】
虽然既往的研究有过对回应政党的政策言论和执政联盟的组成会如何影响公民对执政党意识形态的看法的分析，但目前没有研究探讨公民是否会影响政府的政策产出。在对1973年至2010年15个政党制度进行分析的基础上，本文根据政府的福利政策的数据校准了公民的左右党派位置。本文发现了一种福利慷慨效应（welfare generosity effect），即当福利政策更为慷慨时，执政党的形象会进一步向左移。此外，公众似乎认为，除了上次选举以来对福利政策的调整，现任政府还要对它所继承的福利制度负责。然而，本文发现没有证据表明公民会对政府所声明的政策言论作出反应，这表明公民会优先考虑政府的实际政策，而不是语言。上述发现对政党的选举策略和大众与精英的关系具有启示意义。
While previous research evaluates how citizens’ perceptions of governing parties’ ideologies respond to party policy rhetoric and the composition of governing coalitions, no extant study addresses whether citizens cue off of government policy outputs. We calibrate citizens’ Left-Right party placements against data on government welfare policies in analyses of 15 party systems for 1973–2010. We identify a welfare generosity effect where governing parties’ images shift further left when welfare policies are more generous; moreover, the public appears to hold the current government accountable for the welfare regime it inherited, in addition to the welfare policy changes to this regime it has enacted since the last election. However, we find no evidence that citizens react to governments’ manifesto-based policy rhetoric, which suggests that citizens prioritize actual government policies, not words. These findings have implications for parties’ election strategies and for mass-elite linkages.
25 回应政策，如果你担得起：分析经济繁荣和萧条时期的政策回应性
【题目】
Responsiveness, If You Can Afford It: Policy Responsiveness in Good and Bad Economic Times
【作者】
Lawrence Ezrow, Timothy Hellwig, and Michele Fenzl
【摘要】
传统的代表性理论假设，政党具有对公众意见作出回应的动机，反过来，公众意见反映在公共政策中，因为各党派联结在一起组成政府。然而，在这一代表性链条中缺失了成本的概念。本文认为，政府在经济强劲增长的情况下，政府回应选民的成本微不足道，但在经济困难时期，其成本却相当大，这一发现推进了关于政策回应性的研究。对选民和政府福利政策的跨国分析所得出的结果符合上述预期。研究结果表明，民主制的表现（表现为政策回应性）取决于经济增长。
Traditional theories of representation posit that political parties have incentives to respond to public opinion, which, in turn, is reflected in public policy as parties come together to form governments. Absent from this chain of representation, however, is the notion of costs. We advance the study of policy responsiveness by arguing that the government’s cost of responding to the electorate is marginal under conditions of strong economic growth but considerable during hard economic times. Cross-national analyses of voters and government welfare policies produce results that are consistent with this expectation. The findings imply that democratic performance, expressed as responsiveness, is conditional on economic growth.
26 适度化或策略性？企业与贸易集团的政治献金
【题目】
Moderation or Strategy? Political Giving by Corporations and Trade Groups
【作者】
Sebastian Thieme
【摘要】
企业和贸易协会给予两党的政治献金反映了其战略考量还是意识形态上的适中化？本文利用爱荷华州、内布拉斯加州和威斯康辛州的所披露的游说信息，提出了一种新的意识形态衡量方法，从而能够在上述两种观点之间做出判断。这些州的立法机构允许或要求游说者在游说法案上声明他们的主要立场。本文将这些数据与唱名表决相结合，来评估在同一意识形态空间（ideological space）中的立法者的偏好立场（ideal points）和私人利益。本文发现，大多数企业和贸易集团所显示的偏好比他们的献金行为所暗示的更保守。这表明，温和立场的献金记录并不意味着温和的政策偏好。因此，这些利益可能不会减少整体上的两极分化。此外，献金行为和任职情况之间的差异表明，许多商业利益采用复杂的策略来影响他们不喜欢的政府官员。
Do bipartisan contributions by corporations and trade associations reflect strategic considerations or ideological moderation? In this article, I leverage lobbying disclosures in Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin to provide a new measure of ideology that allows me to adjudicate between the two accounts. These states’ legislatures permit or require lobbyists to declare their principals’ positions on lobbied bills. I combine these data with roll call votes to estimate the ideal points of legislators and private interests in the same ideological space. I find that the revealed preferences of most corporations and trade groups are more conservative than what would be implied by their contribution behavior. This shows that a moderate contribution record need not imply moderation in policy preferences. Thus, such interests may not reduce polarization overall. Further, the divergence between contribution and position-taking behavior indicates that many business interests employ sophisticated strategies to influence public officials whom they disagree with.
27 叙利亚内战中的国家认同与次国家认同
【题目】
National and Subnational Identification in the Syrian Civil War
【作者】
Daniel Corstange
【摘要】
种族内战是否会导致人们采用以种族为标准的身份认同？本文报告了一项框架（framing）实验的发现，该实验让在黎巴嫩的叙利亚难民从教派和非教派两个方面，聆听对其内战的不同描述。基线观测数据表明，多数和少数群体成员分别更经常地以国家和次国家维度作为身份认同的标准，这一结果与其他情况下的研究相一致。少数民族对教派性的描述反应强烈，然而其反应方式与预期相反。教派性的描述非但没有增强人们对次国家群体的认同感，反而增强了少数民族的国家认同感。上述发现表明，我们应该重新考虑冲突的制造者们试图在种族冲突中塑造什么认同，并质疑这样一个问题：他们的言论能在多大程度上影响普通人。
Do ethnic civil wars cause people to identify in ethnic terms? This article reports findings from a framing experiment conducted with Syrian refugees in Lebanon that varies the description of their civil war in sectarian and nonsectarian terms. Consistent with research in other settings, baseline results show that majority and minority group members identify more frequently in national and subnational terms, respectively. Minorities respond strongly to the sectarian treatment but opposite the direction expected. Rather than boosting identification with their subnational groups, the sectarian treatment increases national identification among minorities. These findings suggest that we reconsider what identity entrepreneurs are trying to achieve when they frame conflicts around ethnicity and may call into question the extent to which their rhetoric can influence ordinary people.
编 译：高云萌 王悦霖
审 校：高云萌 王悦霖 刘博涵
相关阅读：
顶刊前沿 | 《政治学杂志》2020年第2期（Journal of Politics）
编辑：周佳银
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
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