国际顶刊 |《政治学杂志》2020年第4期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《政治学杂志》2020年第4期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Journal of Politics（政治学杂志）是美国南方政治科学协会（SPSA）旗下学术期刊，目前由芝加哥大学出版社代为出版。期刊创刊于1939年，出版周期为每年4期，期刊收录范围涵盖政治科学相关的所有细分学科。
期刊研究领域和收录范围包：美国政治、比较政治学、国际关系、政治学理论、政治学方法论。
PART 2
期刊目录
Responsive Campaigning: Evidence from European Parties
回应性竞选：来自欧洲政党的证据
Does Voting Have Upstream and Downstream Consequences? Regression Discontinuity Tests of the Transformative Voting Hypothesis
投票会产生“上游”和“下游”后果吗？ 变革性投票假设的断点回归检验
The Black Market Blues: The Political Costs of Illicit Currency Markets
黑市变蓝：非法货币市场的政治成本
Helping or Hurting? How Governing as a Junior Coalition Partner Influences Electoral Outcomes
帮助还是伤害？ 作为年轻联盟伙伴的执政如何影响选举结果
The Environmental Costs of Civil War: A Synthetic Comparison of the Congolese Forests with and without the Great War of Africa
内战的环境代价：对有无非洲大战的刚果森林的合成比较
Political Agency, Election Quality, and Corruption
政治机构、选举质量与腐败
Gender Quotas, Women’s Representation, and Legislative Diversity
性别配额、女性代表和立法多样性
Loyalty or Incentives? How Party Alignment Affects Bureaucratic Performance
忠诚还是激励？政党联盟如何影响官僚绩效
Public Reactions to International Legal Institutions: The International Criminal Court in a Developing Democracy
公众对国际法律机构的反应：发展中民主国家的国际刑事法庭
Information Technology and Political Engagement: Mixed Evidence from Uganda
信息技术与政治参与：来自乌干达的混合证据
The Importance of Candidate Sex and Partisan Preference over Time: A Multiday Study of Voter Decision Making
候选人性别和党派偏好的重要性：选民决策的历时性研究
No Easy Way Out: The Effect of Military Coups on State Repression
难以退出：军事政变对国家镇压的影响
The Culture of Corruption across Generations: An Empirical Study of Bribery Attitudes and Behavior
代代相传的腐败文化：对贿赂态度和行为的实证研究
Reform, Representation, and Resistance: The Politics of Property Rights’ Enforcement
改革、代表和抵抗：财产权强制执行中的政治
Nonintrinsic Egalitarianism, from Hobbes to Rousseau
非内在的平等主义：从霍布斯到卢梭
Identity and Provocation: Dynamics of Minority Assimilation
认同与挑衅：少数民族同化的动力
Can Institutions Make Voters Care about Corruption?
机构能让选民关心腐败吗？
A Dynamic Model of Primaries
一个初选的动态模型
Coalition Policy Perceptions
联盟政策认知
Does Police Repression Spur Everyday Cooperation? Evidence from Urban India
警力镇压会促进日常合作吗？来自印度城市的证据
Self-Confidence and Gender Gaps in Political Interest, Attention, and Efficacy
在政治兴趣、关注度和效用上的自信心和性别差距
Does Campaign Spending Affect Election Outcomes? New Evidence from Transaction-Level Disbursement Data
竞选支出会影响选举结果吗？来自交易层面支出数据的新证据
Politicians as Party Hacks: Party Loyalty and Public Distrust in Politicians
作为政党黑客的政客：政客的政党忠诚度和公众信任危机
Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public
表达信心：概率性竞选如何使公众困惑并遣散他们
Measuring the Consolidation of Power in Nondemocracies
衡量非民主国家的权力整合
From Political Mobilization to Electoral Participation: Turnout in Barcelona in the 1930s
从政治动员到参选：20世纪30年代巴塞罗那的投票率
Building Parties from City Hall: Party Membership and Municipal Government in Brazil
从市政厅组建政党：巴西的党员和市政府
The Effect of Electing Female Candidates on Attitudes toward Intimate Partner Violence
女性候选人对亲密伴侣暴力态度的影响
A Certain Type of Descriptive Representative? Understanding How the Skin Tone and Gender of Candidates Influences Black Politics
特定类型的描述性代表？理解候选人的肤色和性别如何影响黑人政治
The Intersection of Racial and Partisan Discrimination: Evidence from a Correspondence Study of Four-Year Colleges
种族歧视与党派歧视的交叉：来自对四年制大学研究的证据
Traditional Leaders and the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic
传统领导人与2014-2015年的埃博拉疫情
A Reanalysis of the Relationship between Indirect Rule, Ethnic Inclusion, and Decolonization
对间接统治、种族融合与去殖民化关系的再分析
Intraparty Polarization in American Politics
美国政治中的党内两极分化
PART 3
精选译文
01 回应性竞选：来自欧洲政党的证据
【题目】
Responsive Campaigning: Evidence from European Parties
【作者】
Miguel M. Pereira University of Southern California
【摘要】
政党如何来应对竞选活动中的公共舆论转变？尽管大量文献着眼于历次选举之间的意识形态变更，但是短期回应性的动力机制在很大程度上仍然是一个黑箱。我认为竞选活动的修辞反映了政党需要平衡机构和政策目标。选民偏好的变化改变了这些目标的重要性，导致政党调整他们的策略。一个新的数据集结合了68个欧洲政党的民意调查和竞选声明，为这一论点提供了支持。在竞选活动中表现良好的政党追求他们的首要目标。然而，当选民脱离这个政党时，政党的领导人被迫满足其次要目标：主流政党出现了两极分化以保证核心选民的支持，而利基政党则通过缓和其言论以保证在议会中的生存。这篇文章揭示的政党定位的流动性有助于启发之前政策回应性研究留下的多个问题。
How do parties respond to public opinion shifts on the campaign trail? While a vast literature looks at ideological updating across elections, the dynamics of short-term responsiveness remain largely a black box. I argue that campaign rhetoric reflects parties’ need to balance office and policy goals. Shifts in voter preferences alter the salience of these goals, leading parties to adjust their strategies. A novel data set combining opinion polls with campaign statements by 68 European parties provides support for this argument. Parties performing well in the campaign pursue their dominant aims. However, when voters shift away from a party, leaders are impelled to accommodate their secondary goals: mainstream parties polarize to secure the support of core voters, while niche parties moderate their rhetoric to guarantee survival in parliament. The fluidity of party positioning uncovered here helps in enlightening multiple questions left open by previous studies of policy responsiveness.
02 投票会产生“上游”和“下游”后果吗？ 变革性投票假设的断点回归检验
【题目】
Does Voting Have Upstream and Downstream Consequences? Regression Discontinuity Tests of the Transformative Voting Hypothesis
【作者】
John B. Holbein University of Virginia
Marcos A. Rangel Duke University and BREAD
【摘要】
投票是政治科学研究的中心支柱。实际上，学者们长期以来一直在回答诸如“谁投票”、“人们为什么投票”以及“哪些干预措施可以增加投票”之类的问题。然而，只有少数学者考虑过投票是否会改变选区市民的性格和行为。本文中，我们探讨了投票冲击在投票经历之前（“上游”）以及投票之后的几个月和几年（“下游”）里对年轻市民的政治利益、成员资格、社会意识和政治知识的影响。为此，我们使用了两个国家的大型调查数据的独特组合，并结合根据确切的出生日期进行的断点回归设计。我们发现，自愿投票和强制投票——尽管使得投票率大大增加——对年轻市民“上游”或“下游”的公民参与经精确预估是没有影响的。虽然投票行为可能是重要的经历，但它似乎比以前认为的具有更小的变革性作用。
Voting is a central pillar of political science research; indeed, scholars have long addressed questions like, “Who votes?,” “Why do people vote?,” and “What interventions increase voting?” However, only a few have considered whether voting changes adjacent civic dispositions and behaviors. In this paper, we explore the effects of voting shocks on young citizens’ political interest, memberships, social awareness, and political knowledge in the lead up to the voting experience (“upstream”) and in the months and years after (“downstream”). To do so, we use a unique combination of large survey data from two countries paired with an exact date-of-birth regression discontinuity design. We find that eligibility to vote voluntarily and exposure to compulsory voting—despite eliciting large turnout increases—have precisely estimated null effects on young people’s upstream or downstream civic engagement. While voting may be an important experience, it appears to have smaller transformative effects than previously thought.
03 黑市变蓝：非法货币市场的政治成本
【题目】
The Black Market Blues: The Political Costs of Illicit Currency Markets
【作者】
Luis Schiumerini University of Notre Dame
David A. Steinberg Johns Hopkins University
【摘要】
通货膨胀率高和货币法规严格的国家通常美元黑市也蓬勃发展。我们认为，美元黑市具有重要的政治影响：它损害了许多公民的钱袋子，因此减少了对政府的支持。来自阿根廷的证据支持了这一论点。使用合并的时间序列数据，我们预估美元的黑市价格每相对于官方价格上涨10％，从长期来看总统批准的财政就会减少2-5个百分点。为了更直接地测试这个财力机制，我们还使用了通过列表实验获取的个人层面的数据。我们发现，从黑市上购买美元的人在2015年总统大选中投票给现任政党的可能性降低了10个百分点。这些发现表明，美元黑市会产生重要的政治影响。
Countries with high inflation and stringent currency regulations frequently have thriving black markets for dollars. We argue that the black market for dollars has important political consequences: it hurts the pocketbooks of many citizens and, therefore, reduces support for the government. Evidence from Argentina supports this argument. Using aggregate time series data, we estimate that a 10% increase in the black market price of the dollar relative to the official price reduces presidential approval by 2–5 percentage points in the long run. To test the pocketbook mechanism more directly, we use individual-level data from a list experiment. We find that people who bought dollars on the black market were 10 percentage points less likely to vote for the incumbent party in the 2015 presidential election. These findings suggest that the black market for dollars can have important political consequences.
04 帮助还是伤害？ 作为年轻联盟伙伴的执政如何影响选举结果
【题目】
Helping or Hurting? How Governing as a Junior Coalition Partner Influences Electoral Outcomes
【作者】
Heike Klüver Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Jae-Jae Spoon University of Pittsburgh
【摘要】
以年轻伙伴身份加入执政联盟是否会影响该政党随后的选举成功？我们认为，以年轻伙伴身份加入多党内阁会严重损害政党未来的选举前景，因为年轻伙伴无法履行他们在大选之前所做的承诺，而且他们无法完全将自己与他们较大的联盟伙伴区别开来。为了比较地和历时性地检验理论期望，我们收集了关于1972年至2017年在28个欧洲国家进行的219次选举中307个政党的选举表现的综合数据。为了阐明潜在的因果机制，我们还另外通过一个解释性的案例研究提供经验证据。该案例研究表明，无法兑现选举承诺以及选民之间的严重误解是造成年轻联盟政党选举失败的重要因素。我们的研究发现为联盟政府与选举竞争之间的关系提供了重要的见解。
Does joining a governing coalition as a junior partner influence a party’s subsequent electoral success? We argue that joining a multiparty cabinet as a junior partner considerably hurts a party’s future electoral prospects as junior partners cannot enact much of what they promised before the election and since they cannot sufficiently differentiate themselves from their larger coalition partner. To test our theoretical expectations comparatively and over time, we have compiled a comprehensive data set on the electoral performance of 307 political parties running in 219 elections in twenty-eight European countries from 1972 to 2017. To shed light on the underlying causal mechanisms, we additionally provide empirical evidence from an illustrative case study showing that the inability to deliver on election promises and a large degree of misperception among voters are important drivers of junior coalition parties’ electoral losses. Our findings provide important insights into the relationship between coalition governments and electoral competition.
05 内战的环境代价：对有无非洲大战的刚果森林的合成比较
【题目】
The Environmental Costs of Civil War: A Synthetic Comparison of the Congolese Forests with and without the Great War of Africa
【作者】
Kyosuke Kikuta Osaka University
【摘要】
尽管有一事实，即在1950年至2000年之间，超过80％的战争发生在生物多样性的热点地区，但我们并没有充分理解战争带来的环境代价。这项研究是对内战的森林环境代价进行的首批系统性评估之一。然而，该分析需要适当的反事实：如果不是由于内战，则森林会进行覆盖。此外，与其估算各种内战的平均成本，不如对每次战争进行估算。我通过将合成控制法应用于刚果民主共和国的非洲大战中来解决这些问题。分析表明，内战在五年内造成了1.61％的森林损失，这比整个比利时和将近半个塞拉利昂的领土面积还要多。此发现呼吁人们进一步关注“冲突木材”的问题。
Despite the fact that, between 1950 and 2000, more than 80% of wars occurred within biodiversity hot spots, we do not fully understand the environmental costs of war. This study conducts one of the first systematic evaluations of the costs of civil war for forest environments. The analysis, however, requires a proper counterfactual: the forest coverage if it were not for civil war. Moreover, instead of estimating an average cost of diverse civil wars, it would be better to tailor the estimate to each war. I address these problems by applying the synthetic control method to the case of the Great War of Africa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The analysis shows that the civil war caused a 1.61% loss of the forests, which is more than the entire territory of Belgium and nearly a half of Sierra Leone, over five years. The finding calls further attention to “conflict timber” problems.
06 政治机构、选举质量与腐败
【题目】
Political Agency, Election Quality, and Corruption
【作者】
Miguel R. Rueda Emory University
Nelson A. Ruiz University of Oxford
【摘要】
选举操纵如何影响民选官员满足其选民的意愿？尽管已有文献强调了选举作为问责机制的作用，但我们不知道完整性受到损害的选举如何影响民选官员的任职行为。我们提出了一种问责模型，该模型可以进行选举操纵，并得出三个结果：1、寻租水平随着选举操纵水平的提高而增加；2、职务价值与为高价值职务寻租成正相关；3、选举操纵随着职务价值的增加而增加。通过模糊断点回归设计，利用确定哥伦比亚投票站规模的规则，我们估算了贿选与选举获胜者因违反公职人员纪律而受到制裁可能性的正向的因果关系。与理论预期一致，我们发现更高的职务价值不会带来更少的制裁，反而带来更多的贿选。
How does electoral manipulation affect elected officials’ willingness to satisfy their constituents? Although the literature has highlighted the role of elections as mechanisms of accountability, we do not know how elections whose integrity is compromised influence elected officials’ actions in office. We present a model of accountability that allows for electoral manipulation and derive three results: (i) rent extraction increases with the level of electoral manipulation, (ii) the value of holding office is positively related to rent extraction for high values of office, and (iii) electoral manipulation increases with the value of office. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that exploits rules determining the sizes of polling stations in Colombia, we estimate a positive causal effect of vote buying on the likelihood of the election winner being sanctioned for violating the disciplinary code of public officials. Consistent with the theory, we find that higher values of office are not linked to fewer sanctions but are associated with more vote buying.
07 性别配额、女性代表和立法多样性
【题目】
Gender Quotas, Women’s Representation, and Legislative Diversity
【作者】
Tiffany D. Barnes University of Kentucky
Mirya R. Holman Tulane University
【摘要】
政治领导人特征的多元化提高了政策的质量、对合法性的认识以及对选民的负责。然而，日益增加的领导人多样性被证明是现代民主面临的最困难的挑战之一。诸如性别配额之类的努力将描述性代表性转移到了目标特征上，但批评者认为，通过配额选取的女性与通过传统方法挑选的女性同质。本文中，我们认为配额（重新）概念化了潜在政治领导人的观念并转变了政党的招募网络。这样，配额增加了所有在职领导者的多样性。我们使用了一种新的多样性的测量方法和阿根廷地方政府中1,700多名立法者的数据集来评估这些主张。研究表明，随着时间的推移，配额增加了在职男性和女性的专业和个人多样性，这表明选举的性别配额改变了政党、政治网络以及女性（和男性）是如何看待政治职务的。
Diversity in the characteristics of political leaders increases the quality of policy, perceptions of legitimacy, and accountability to constituents. Yet, increasing leaders’ diversity proves one of the most difficult challenges facing modern democracy. Efforts like gender quotas shift descriptive representation on the targeted characteristic, but critics argue that women selected via quotas are as homogenous as those selected via traditional methods. In this article, we theorize that quotas (re)conceptualize views of potential political leaders and transform party recruitment networks. In doing so, quotas increase the diversity of all leaders in office. We evaluate these claims with a new measure of diversity and a data set of over 1,700 legislators in Argentinian subnational government. We show that quotas increase the professional and personal diversity of women and men in office over time, suggesting that electoral gender quotas transform parties, political networks, and how women (and men) perceive political office.
08 忠诚还是激励？政党联盟如何影响官僚绩效
【题目】
Loyalty or Incentives? How Party Alignment Affects Bureaucratic Performance
【作者】
Carlos Velasco Rivera Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse
【摘要】
现有研究表明，国家和地方政客之间的政党结盟会对政府支出产生正向的影响。但是，公共项目通常需要职业官僚的批准或投入。由于政党政治不会直接影响这些代理人的激励，因此，尚不清楚政党结盟是否会影响他们的绩效以及他们监管的项目。为了研究这个问题，我选取了印度国会议员地方发展计划下实施的独特而庞大的项目数据集。证据表明，政党结盟可以缩短项目批准的时间，并提高项目资源的利用率，而不会影响项目的整体质量。在政治选择中，对职业生涯的考虑成为解释官僚行为的重要机制。总体研究结果表明，官僚的激励与公务员的晋升结构相结合，这是解释政党结盟对资源分配影响的重要因素。
Existing studies show that party alignment between national and subnational politicians has a positive impact on government spending. However, public programs often need the approval or input from career bureaucrats. Since party politics do not directly affect these agents’ incentives, it is unclear whether party alignment will affect their performance and the programs they supervise. To examine this question, I rely on a uniquely large and granular data set of projects implemented under the Member of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme in India. The evidence shows that party alignment leads to lower project approval time and a higher utilization of program resources without compromising the overall quality of projects. Career concerns emerge, over political selection, as an important mechanism explaining bureaucratic behavior. The overall findings suggest that bureaucrats’ incentives combined with the structure of promotions in the civil service are important factors explaining the impact of party alignment on the distribution of resources.
09 公众对国际法律机构的反应：发展中民主国家的国际刑事法庭
【题目】
Public Reactions to International Legal Institutions: The International Criminal Court in a Developing Democracy
【作者】
Terrence L. Chapman University of Texas at Austin
Stephen Chaudoin Harvard University
【摘要】
我们研究了公众对国际刑事法庭（ICC）可能进行的调查的态度。我们假设公民对在本国开展调查的支持程度往往低于在国外的，并进一步认为，这种支持的减少受到公民距离调查地“临近”程度的调节。犯罪嫌疑人和受害人都可能对法律干预而犹豫不决，前者担心会受到起诉，而后者则担心失去脆弱的和平。我们对在吉尔吉斯斯坦的国际刑事法庭进行了调查实验，将受访者随机分配到控制组，询问他们对国际调查的看法，而对实验组询问他们对近期当地暴力调查的看法。实验干预降低了受访者对调查的相对高的支持率。在最靠近暴力的地区，尤其是在同种族的受害者中，这种影响最为明显。本文的研究发现有助于解释为什么对国际法的支持程度会在地方选区中大相径庭。
We examine public attitudes concerning a possible investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC). We hypothesize that citizens tend to display lower levels of support for investigations in their own country than hypothetical ones abroad. We further argue that this decrease in support is moderated by a citizen’s “proximity” to the investigation. Both perpetrators and victims of alleged crimes can be hesitant about legal interventions, with the former fearing prosecution and the latter fearing the loss of a fragile peace. We use a survey experiment about the ICC in Kyrgyzstan that randomly assigned respondents to a control group, asked about foreign investigations, and a treatment group, asked about an investigation into recent local violence. Treatment lowered otherwise relatively high approval for investigations. This effect was strongest in regions most proximate to the violence, especially among coethnics of victims. Our findings help explain why support for international law can vary widely across subnational constituencies.
10 信息技术与政治参与：来自乌干达的混合证据
【题目】
Information Technology and Political Engagement: Mixed Evidence from Uganda
【作者】
Guy Grossman University of Pennsylvania
Macartan Humphreys Columbia University and WZB Berlin
Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz Columbia University
【摘要】
这项研究整合了三个相关的实地实验，来了解信息通信技术的创新如何影响谁与政客之间沟通。在小规模的预实验之后，我们在乌干达开展了一项全国范围的实验。预实验表明信息通信技术可以带来显著的“扁平化”：边缘化人群使用短信通信比使用现有的政治通信渠道的比例高。在全国实验中，我们没有发现这些效应的证据。相反，人们的参与率极低，尤其边缘化人群的参与率特别低。我们研究了受控程度更高和规模化的实验之间这些差异的可能原因。证据表明，即使公民有自己想提出的问题，政治体系的结构性弱点也很容易削弱用来解决通信缺陷的技术手段。
This study integrates three related field experiments to learn about how information communications technology (ICT) innovations can affect who communicates with politicians. We implemented a nationwide experiment in Uganda following a smaller-scale framed field experiment that suggested that ICTs can lead to significant “flattening”: marginalized populations used short message service (SMS) based communication at relatively higher rates compared to existing political communication channels. We find no evidence for these effects in the national experiment. Instead, participation rates are extremely low, and marginalized populations engage at especially low rates. We examine possible reasons for these differences between the more controlled and the scaled-up experiments. The evidence suggests that even when citizens have issues they want to raise, technological fixes to communication deficits can be easily undercut by structural weaknesses in political systems.
11 候选人性别和党派偏好的重要性：选民决策的历时性研究
【题目】
The Importance of Candidate Sex and Partisan Preference over Time: A Multiday Study of Voter Decision Making
【作者】
David J. Andersen Durham University
Tessa Ditonto Durham University
【摘要】
妇女在竞选政治职务时经常面临着挑战，但确切来说，候选人的性别何时及如何影响选民的决策尚不清楚。通过一个独特的、多天的、高信息量的实验，我们研究了选举中女性候选人的存在如何影响被试的信息搜索、候选人评估和投票决定。我们关注女性候选人（无论她们是在党内还是在党外参加竞选）的党派倾向如何起作用，以及在竞选活动的哪一时刻性别的因素影响最大。研究发现，看到党内女性候选人的被试更愿意考虑党外候选人，以寻找参与竞选的候选人更多的信息。党外的女性候选人增强了被试初始的党派偏好，导致信息搜索减少和党内投票率提高。我们还发现，候选人性别在竞选初期最具有影响力，随着竞选的进行，它的影响逐渐减弱。
Women often face challenges when running for political office, but precisely when and how candidate sex affects voter decision making is unclear. Using a unique multiday, high-information experiment, we examine how the presence of women candidates in an election influences subjects’ information search, candidate evaluations, and vote decisions. We focus on how the partisan alignment of women candidates (whether they run in the subject’s preferred in-party vs. out-party) matters and at which point in the campaign gender is most influential. We find that subjects who see in-party women candidates are more open to considering the out-party candidate, seeking out more information about the candidates in the race. Out-party women candidates strengthen subjects’ initial partisan preferences, however, leading to less search and higher in-party voting rates. We also find that candidate gender is most influential early in the campaign, and its effects diminish as the campaign progresses.
12 难以退出：军事政变对国家镇压的影响
【题目】
No Easy Way Out: The Effect of Military Coups on State Repression
【作者】
Jean Lachapelle University of Gothenburg
【摘要】
人们通常提倡通过军事政变来结束国家支持的暴行。但是，我们对军事政变的确切影响知之甚少。本文通过探索预谋的政变成功或失败的机会因素，来评估军事政变对国家镇压的影响。与将政变作为反对专制独裁者的补救措施的流行观点相反，我发现没有任何证据表明政变对国家镇压具有安抚作用。相反，政变似乎使情况变得更糟，即使是针对那些大规模侵犯人权的领导而言。本文通过解决长期以来“好政变与坏政变”的辩论，为政治暴力、威权主义和军民关系研究做出了贡献。它还通过创新的实证设计来推进了政变及其影响的文献研究，该研究设计利用政变结果的外生变化，结合极值边界分析，克服了使用观测数据进行因果推理的传统挑战。
Military coups are often advocated as solutions for ending state-sponsored atrocities. Yet, we know little about coups’ precise consequences. This article estimates the effect of coups on state repression by exploiting the element of chance in whether an attempted coup succeeds or fails. Contrary to popular views of coups as remedies against repressive autocrats, I find no evidence that coups have a pacifying effect on state repression. Rather, coups appear to make matters worse, even when targeting leaders who commit large-scale human rights violations. This article contributes to studies of political violence, authoritarianism, and civil-military relations by resolving a long-standing “good coup versus bad coup” debate. It also advances literature on coups and their consequences through an innovative empirical design that leverages exogenous variation in coup outcomes, combined with an extreme bounds analysis, overcoming conventional challenges of causal inference using observational data.
13 代代相传的腐败文化：关于贿赂态度和行为的实证研究
【题目】
The Culture of Corruption across Generations: An Empirical Study of Bribery Attitudes and Behavior
【作者】
Alberto Simpser ITAM
【摘要】
文化是腐败的持久驱动力吗？我研究了对贿赂的规范态度是否会随代际变化而存在。为了区分文化与制度原因，我比较了具有共同制度环境但父母在国外出生的个人。我发现了代际相传的证据：父母所在国家的平均贿赂态度解释了第二代移民对贿赂态度的差异。与理论模型一致，基于家庭和基于社区的态度传播机制似乎都很重要。在宽松的环境中，文化的持久性似乎更大。最后，我发现贿赂态度与两种衡量贿赂行为的方式有关，这强调了在腐败研究和政策中需要更多地关注文化的因素。
Is culture a lasting driver of corruption? I study whether normative attitudes toward bribery persist through generational change. To disentangle cultural from institutional causes, I compare individuals who share an institutional environment but whose parents were born abroad. I find evidence of intergenerational persistence: average bribery attitudes in the parental country of ancestry explain variation in bribery attitudes across second-generation immigrants. Consistent with theoretical models, both family-based and community-based mechanisms of attitudinal transmission appear to matter, and cultural persistence appears to be greater in laxer environments. Finally, I find that bribery attitudes are associated with two measures of bribing behavior, highlighting the need to increase attention to cultural factors in corruption scholarship and policy.
14 改革、代表和抵抗：财产权强制执行中的政治
【题目】
Reform, Representation, and Resistance: The Politics of Property Rights’ Enforcement
【作者】
Rachel E. Brulé Boston University
【摘要】
女性政治代表性的配额在什么时候会促进经济上的性别平等呢？通过立法改革来使经济平权在全球范围内很普遍，但也随之带来了多种结果。我在非常重要的财产领域中考虑配额对女性权利的影响，利用为印度地方政府女性领导人设定的选举配额——保留席位。保留席位使人们能够清楚地认识到代表性对实现两性平等的土地继承改革的影响。我发现，政治代表性使得妇女保障财产权，并确保这些权利得到维护。然而，当保障女性代表权的保留席位使改革可能实施时，就会出现反弹。妇女可以通过利用女性代表权，以传统的货币嫁妆来换取财产继承和家庭责任，以减少这种反弹。这一措施反过来降低了改革对男性而言的“成本”。这些发现证实了政治代表性的影响不仅仅要求经济权利，而且通过改变对平等的看法来扩大其被接受的范围。
When do quotas for women’s political representation promote economic gender equality? Legislative reforms equalizing economic rights are common globally, with mixed results. I consider the impact of quotas on women’s rights in a crucial domain: property. I leverage exogenously set electoral quotas—reservations—for women as heads of local government in India. Reservations enable clean identification of the impact of representation on enforcing gender-equalizing land inheritance reforms. I find that political representation enables women to secure property rights and ensures that they are upheld. However, backlash occurs when reservations guaranteeing female representation make enforcement of reform credible. Women can reduce this backlash by using female representation to trade traditional monetary dowry for property inheritance and familial responsibilities. This, in turn, reduces the “cost” of reform to men. These findings confirm the power of political representation to not only claim economic rights but broaden their acceptance by changing perceptions of parity.
15 非内在的平等主义：从霍布斯到卢梭
【题目】
Nonintrinsic Egalitarianism, from Hobbes to Rousseau
【作者】
Christopher Brooke University of Cambridge
【摘要】
近期有关“非内在平均主义”的尖锐言论产生于对“目的论”平等主义和“道义论”平等主义进行区分的批评。这种方法的部分好处在于它可以被使用，以便重新结合最近关于平等的哲学辩论与政治思想史上更古老的潮流。这篇文章解释了1650年以来的英法世纪之争是如何创造了智力空间，以表达非内在平等主义思想的，如同我们从卢梭1750年以来的主要政治著作中发现的那样。通过此举，本文说明了根本的政治理论分歧在极大程度上往往并非由相互竞争的规范性承诺推动的，而是由对于这些承诺如何通过争论者所想象的社会和体制可能性出现分支的不同理解来推动的。
The recent, crisp articulation of “nonintrinsic egalitarianism” emerged out of the critique of the influential distinction between “telic” and “deontic” egalitarianisms. Part of the promise of this approach is that it can be deployed in order to reintegrate these recent philosophical debates about equality with much older currents in the history of political thought. The article explains how the century of argument in England and France after 1650 created the intellectual space for the kind of presentation of nonintrinsic egalitarian ideas such as we find in Rousseau’s major political writings from the 1750s onward. In so doing, the article illustrates the striking extent to which fundamental political-theoretical disagreements are often driven not so much by competing normative commitments as by divergent understandings of how those commitments ramify through the sociological and institutional possibilities that disputants imagine are plausibly open to them.
16 认同与挑衅：少数民族同化的动力
【题目】
Identity and Provocation: Dynamics of Minority Assimilation
【作者】
Xiaoli Guo University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
【摘要】
本文正式说明了极端分子如何通过操纵种族或宗教身份，以在社会中产生群体间的紧张关系。我认为，伊斯兰极端分子试图强化穆斯林的伊斯兰教徒身份。为此，他们对大多数非穆斯林人口发动恐怖袭击，以此作为一种挑衅策略，以引发对穆斯林群体的反弹效应。这种反弹效应使穆斯林更难同化，使他们远离主流群体，并促进其群体团结。我发现，这种挑衅策略只有在穆斯林设法提供足够的群体内偏袒以抵消反弹的情况下才能成功。如果大多数人更加回避不被同化的穆斯林，或者如果穆斯林社区在经济生产上更加无效，那么动员穆斯林也就更加容易，而且极端分子会诱使更多的穆斯林停止同化。如果政府将穆斯林社区排除在外，挑衅的效率就会提高。而且，令人惊讶的是，当穆斯林社区更加极端或更加同质时，挑衅的效率就会降低。
This article formalizes how extremists manipulate an ethnic or religious identity to generate intergroup tension in society. I argue that Islamic extremists seek to reinforce the Islamic identity of Muslims. To do so, they launch terror attacks against a majority non-Muslim population as a provocation strategy to trigger a backlash against Muslims. This backlash makes it more difficult for Muslims to assimilate, pulling them away from the mainstream and promoting their in-group solidarity. I find that this strategy of provocation succeeds only if Muslims manage to provide sufficient in-group favoritism to counteract the backlash. If the majority shuns unassimilated Muslims more, or if the Muslim community is more economically unproductive, it is easier to mobilize Muslims, and extremists can induce more Muslims to stop assimilating. Provocation efficacy increases if the government excludes the Muslim community and, surprisingly, decreases when the Muslim community is more extreme or more homogeneous.
17 机构能让选民关心腐败吗？
【题目】
Can Institutions Make Voters Care about Corruption?
【作者】
Omer Yair Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Raanan Sulitzeanu-Kenan Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Yoav Dotan Hebrew University of Jerusalem
【摘要】
选民在选举中对腐败的政客的惩罚通常是温和的。最近的研究表明，这种轻微的选举制裁是由于有限的腐败信息和在投票行为中对廉正考量相对薄弱。我们研究表明，精英机构——即本文中的以色列最高法院——在选举临近时采取反腐败措施，在腐败信息固定的情况下可以通过提高廉正考虑的重要性来增加选举制裁。我们利用任职期间的廉正水平在时间和空间上的变化，来确定最高法院的外生性反腐败决定对投票的影响（研究1）。我们在一项新的调查实验中进一步测试了这种效应，以市长绩效满意度为因变量（研究2）。这两项研究都表明，在腐败信息不变的情况下，司法机构有能力通过提高廉正考虑的重要性来影响选举行为。
Voters’ punishment of corrupt politicians at the ballot box is oftentimes modest, at best. Recent studies suggest that this minor electoral sanctioning is due to limited corruption information and to the relative weakness of integrity considerations in voting behavior. We demonstrate that anticorruption measures taken by elite institutions—in this case, the Israeli Supreme Court—in close proximity to an election can increase electoral sanctioning by enhancing the importance of integrity considerations, holding corruption information fixed. We use the variation in incumbent integrity across time and space to identify the effect of an exogenous anticorruption decision by the Supreme Court on voting (study 1). We further test this effect in a novel survey experiment, with mayoral performance satisfaction as the dependent variable (study 2). Both studies demonstrate that judicial bodies have the capacity to influence electoral behavior by enhancing the importance of integrity considerations, holding corruption information constant.
18 一个初选的动态模型
【题目】
A Dynamic Model of Primaries
【作者】
Tara Slough New York University
Erin A. York Princeton University
Michael M. Ting Columbia University
【摘要】
初选在世界各地越来越受欢迎，但历史上政党通常以分权的方式选择其候选人的甄选机制。我们发展了一种理论，用以解释在这些情况下初选的使用方式的差异。在我们的模型中，两个政党在所有范围内选择大选的候选人。每个政党内都有一个精英派系和一个非精英派系，其中，精英派系可以选择举行初选或者提名自己。初选产生了更多可参选的候选人，但是初选失败也剥夺了精英阶层的个人利益和未来的精英地位。该模型预测，在意识形态极化程度高的初选中、或在选举中处于不利地位时，政党将选择举行初选。另外，我们展示了在选举不稳定的环境中，赢家改变候选人甄选机制的能力的僵化是如何能够增加初选的普遍采用。
Primary elections are increasingly popular around the world, but historically political parties have typically chosen their candidate selection mechanisms in a decentralized manner. We develop a theory that accounts for variation in the use of primary elections in these settings. In our model, two parties choose candidates for general elections over an infinite horizon. Each party has an elite and a nonelite faction, where the elite faction can choose whether to hold primaries or nominate itself. Primaries produce more electable candidates, but losing a primary also deprives elites of private goods and future elite status. The model predicts that parties adopt primaries under high ideological polarization or when they are electorally disadvantaged. Additionally, we show how rigidities in the ability of winners to change candidate selection mechanisms can increase the universal adoption of primaries in electorally volatile environments.
19 联盟政策认知
【题目】
Coalition Policy Perceptions
【作者】
Shaun Bowler University of California，Riverside
Thomas Gschwend University of Mannheim
Indridi H. Indridason University of California，Riverside
【摘要】
我们研究选民如何形成对联盟政府政策立场的期望。已有文献通常假设选民相信联盟政党对政府政策的影响与联盟政党的规模成正比。然而，关于选民是否或如何形成这种期望的，人们知之甚少。在本文中，我们利用了奥地利、德国和瑞典的数据，发现选民并不认为联盟政党的影响是成比例的。选民们考虑到联盟政党的议价能力，认为较小的联盟政党会对联盟政策产生不成比例的影响。换句话说，在联盟政府下生活并为其投票的选民对政策结果的理解与目前已有的文献有所不同。
We examine how voters form expectations about the policy positions of coalition governments. The literature generally assumes that voters believe the influence of coalition parties on government policy is proportional to the coalition parties’ sizes. Yet little is known about whether, or how, voters form such expectations. In this article we leverage data from Austria, Germany, and Sweden and find that voters do not see coalition party influence as proportional. Voters take account of the coalition parties’ bargaining strength, perceiving smaller coalition parties to have disproportional influence on coalition policy. In other words, voters who live under and vote for coalition governments have a somewhat different sense of policy outcomes than the literature currently suggests.
20 警力镇压会促进日常合作吗？来自印度城市的证据
【题目】
Does Police Repression Spur Everyday Cooperation? Evidence from Urban India
【作者】
Tariq Thachil University of Pennsylvania
【摘要】
在经常被镇压的社区内展开常规的警力镇压，会有利于日常合作还是减少日常合作呢？这个重要的问题在警务比较研究里常常被忽略，这类研究通常考察的是——警力镇压会如何影响公民抗议国家的意愿。我通过研究一个贫穷的国内移民社区，来考察维持治安对一个重要的、经常被压制的城市社区合作的影响。我利用民族志、针对印度城市移民展开了大规模调查实验（样本数= 2,400），以进行实证研究。我发现，镇压促使更多移民愿意与其他移民在共同的工作地点、而不是共享住所内进行合作。这些影响甚至可以跨越经济和种族竞争。我发现，间接证据表明，镇压引发的团结根植于与权威当局的共同经历，而不仅仅来自对警察目标的同情。更广泛地说，这项研究表明，在对富裕的西方民主国家中日常城市警务日益浓厚的研究兴趣应该扩展到发展中国家。
Does routinized police repression spark or quell everyday cooperation within frequently repressed communities? This important question has been neglected by comparative studies of policing, which have largely examined how repression affects citizen willingness to protest against the state. I study the effects of policing on cooperation within an important, frequently repressed urban community: poor internal migrants. Empirically, I draw on ethnography and a large-scale survey experiment (N=2,400) with migrants in urban India. I find repression prompts migrants to express increased willingness to cooperate with another migrant at shared work sites but not within shared residences. These effects can even extend across economic and ethnic rivalries. I find suggestive evidence that repression induces solidarities rooted in shared experiences with the authorities, not simply pity for police targets. More broadly, this study suggests the growing interest in studying everyday urban policing in wealthy Western democracies should be extended to the global south.
21 在政治兴趣、关注度和效用上的自信心和性别差距
【题目】
Self-Confidence and Gender Gaps in Political Interest, Attention, and Efficacy
【作者】
Jennifer Wolak University of Colorado Boulder
【摘要】
与男性相比，女性对政治的兴趣较小，关注时事的可能性较小，并且对自己的政治影响力更加悲观。我探讨了这些性别差异的根源。我认为自信心是一种鼓励在心理上参与政治的资源。但是由于男性比女性更容易拥有这种资源，便导致了政治兴趣、对政治的关注和内部效用方面的性别差距。通过对年轻人和成年人的调查，我证明了性别对政治心理参与的影响部分是由自信心引起的。先前的研究强调教育等资源对于培养政治参与的重要性，而我展示了自信心是一种重要的心理资产，它能提高政治兴趣、关注度与个人政治能力的效能感。
Compared to men, women are less interested in politics, less likely to follow current events, and more pessimistic about their abilities to be influential in politics. I explore the origins of these gender gaps. I argue that feelings of self-confidence serve as a resource that encourages psychological engagement with politics. But because this resource is more likely to be possessed by men than by women, it contributes to gender gaps in political interest, attention to politics, and internal efficacy. By examining surveys of both young people and adults, I demonstrate that gender’s effects on psychological engagement with politics are partially mediated by feelings of self-confidence. While prior studies emphasize the importance of resources like education for cultivating political engagement, I show that self-confidence is an important psychological asset that promotes political interest, attention, and feelings of personal competence in politics.
22 竞选支出会影响选举结果吗？来自交易层面支出数据的新证据
【题目】
Does Campaign Spending Affect Election Outcomes? New Evidence from Transaction-Level Disbursement Data
【作者】
Steven Sprick Schuster Middle Tennessee State University
【摘要】
本文使用有关候选人支出的详细的交易层面数据和跟踪调查数据来估计候选人支出的影响。交易层面数据使我能够将仅用于给选民发送消息的支出单独抽出，而跟踪调查数据使我能够控制未观察到的候选人特征。我发现，在发送给选民信息上的花费对选民有关候选人的支持上具有显著影响。支出在改变选民的组成方面特别有效，而非在说服潜在的选民改变其选票上有效。并非所有选民都受到同样的影响；信息不充分的选民、政党成员和经济上不满意的选民会对候选人的开支响应强烈。最后，我提供了证据证明，候选人支出最常用的测量指标高估了候选人用在自己竞选运动上的钱，且使用这一指标的回归不太可能发现支出在统计学上的显著影响。
This article uses detailed, transaction-level data on candidate disbursements and panel survey data to estimate the effect of candidate spending. Transaction-level data allow me to isolate only spending that is being used on messages to voters, while panel survey data enable me to control for unobserved candidate characteristics. I find that spending on messages to voters has a statistically significant effect on voter support for candidates. Spending is especially effective in changing the composition of voters, instead of convincing potential voters to switch their vote. Not all voters are equally affected by spending; low-information voters, members of a political party and the economically dissatisfied respond strongly to candidate spending. Finally, I provide evidence that the most commonly used measure of candidate spending overestimates the amount of money that candidates use on their own campaigns, and regressions using this measure are less likely to find a statistically significant effect of spending.
23 作为政党黑客的政客：政客的政党忠诚度和公众信任危机
【题目】
Politicians as Party Hacks: Party Loyalty and Public Distrust in Politicians
【作者】
Troels Bøggild Aarhus University
【摘要】
公众对政客的不信任在整个西方民主国家中普遍存在。这一普遍的模式表明，这个问题不仅反映出对政府绩效和不当行为的不满（这也是现有研究的主要重点），而且还反映了人们对民主政治运行的普遍不满。本文指出了现代民主制所促成的代表制与多数公民需要的代表制间的不匹配。由于政治代表制是围绕有凝聚力的政党组织的，因此，一些机构会激励政客表现出对党派政策的忠诚，而不是出于其他考虑（党派代表性）。来自三个国家的观察和实验数据表明，公民通常将政客视作在实现党派代表制，但是他们更喜欢政客在政党政策上遵循自己的良心（受托人代表性）和选区（代表代表性）。这种不匹配导致对政客的不信任，甚至在政党纪律规范性很强的国家以及政客自己的政党支持者中也是如此。这些发现对理解和消除政治上的不信任感有所启示。
Public distrust in politicians is widespread across Western democracies. This general pattern suggests that the problem reflects dissatisfaction with not only government performance and misconduct—the main focus in existing research—but also how democratic politics is generally conducted. This article identifies a mismatch between the representation facilitated by modern democracies and the representation wanted by a majority of citizens. Because political representation is organized around cohesive parties, several institutions incentivize politicians to exhibit loyalty to party policy over other considerations (partisan representation). Observational and experimental data from three countries demonstrate that citizens generally perceive politicians as conducting partisan representation, but they prefer that politicians follow their own conscience (trustee representation) and constituency (delegate representation) over party policy. This mismatch translates into distrust in politicians, even in countries with strong norms for party discipline and among politicians’ own party supporters. The findings have implications for understanding and counteracting political distrust.
24 表达信心：概率性竞选如何使公众困惑并遣散他们
【题目】
Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public
【作者】
Sean Jeremy Westwood Dartmouth College
Solomon Messing Pew Research Center
Yphtach Lelkes University of Pennsylvania
【摘要】
近年来，关于美国竞选活动的媒体报道发生了巨大变化——将重点从最新的民意调查数字转移到强调候选人获胜机会的复杂的元分析预测。政治信息环境中的这种转变是否影响选举结果？我们使用实验表明，预测会提高选举结果的确定性，引发人们困惑，并降低投票率。此外，我们表明选举预测已在媒体中、尤其是在具有自由派受众的媒体中变得突出，并表明这种报道趋向于更强烈地影响即将晋升的候选人—（这）引发了媒体是否对2016年特朗普击败克林顿做出贡献的讨论。我们使用美国全国选举研究数据为这个问题提供了实证性证据，表明民主党和独立人士对2016年决定性的选举结果表达出不同寻常的信心，且信心指标与报道的较低投票率有关。
Recent years have seen a dramatic change in horse-race coverage of elections in the United States—shifting focus from late-breaking poll numbers to sophisticated meta-analytic forecasts that emphasize candidates’ chance of victory. Could this shift in the political information environment affect election outcomes? We use experiments to show that forecasting increases certainty about an election’s outcome, confuses many, and decreases turnout. Furthermore, we show that election forecasting has become prominent in the media, particularly in outlets with liberal audiences, and show that such coverage tends to more strongly affect the candidate who is ahead—raising questions about whether they contributed to Trump’s victory over Clinton in 2016. We bring empirical evidence to this question, using American National Election Studies data to show that Democrats and Independents expressed unusual confidence in a decisive 2016 election outcome—and that the same measure of confidence is associated with lower reported turnout.
25 衡量非民主国家的权力整合
【题目】
Measuring the Consolidation of Power in Nondemocracies
【作者】
Jennifer Gandhi Emory University
Jane Lawrence Sumner University of Minnesota
【摘要】
独裁者在有能力使其下台的精英支持下上台。如果独裁者成功地度过了这个关键时期，他们更有可能持续在位。然而，仅凭他们对职位的执着并不能揭示他们是如何保持权力的。保持权力是两种截然不同安排的结果。一方面，领导者和精英之间的权力保持平衡，另一方面，领导者能够使精英边缘化，从而集中权力。为了考察权力是共享的还是统一的，我们必须更直接地观察独裁者的行为：独裁者对人员和机构的行动可以改变他们自身与精英之间的力量平衡。我们使用了项目响应模型生成面板数据，测量了1946-2008年间的所有非民主国家的领导者的权力集中度。
Dictators come to power with the support of elites who are also capable of removing them from power. If autocrats successfully navigate this critical period, they are more likely to survive in power with time. Yet their persistence in office alone does not reveal how they have managed to survive. Survival in power is the result of two distinct arrangements. In one, power remains balanced between the leader and the elite, and in the other, leaders are able to marginalize their supporting elites, enabling them to concentrate power. To determine whether power is shared or consolidated, we must look more directly at the behavior of dictators: their actions toward personnel and institutions that can shift the balance of power between themselves and elites. We use an item response model to produce a time series cross-sectional measure of the leader’s concentration of power for all nondemocracies from 1946 to 2008.
26 从政治动员到参选：20世纪30年代巴塞罗那的投票率
【题目】
From Political Mobilization to Electoral Participation: Turnout in Barcelona in the 1930s
【作者】
Francesc Amat University of Barcelona and IPERG-UB
Carles Boix Princeton University and IPERG-UB
Jordi Muñoz University of Barcelona and IPERG-UB
Toni Rodon Universitat Pompeu Fabra
【摘要】
本文探讨了选举权扩大到低收入公民之后的选举动员过程。我们利用了历史上独一无二的官方登记的面板数据集，其中包括个人投票花名册以及20世纪30年代巴塞罗那近25000名选民的人口统计学数据，并使其与相关选区层面的社会经济、政治和地理数据相匹配。研究表明，投票是由政党和那些占据社会重要部分的社会组织（例如工会）制定的直接动员策略推动的。这种情况尤其会出现在非熟练工人群体之中、以及工人阶级选民密度高的地区。我们还发现，投票率是由间接渠道决定的，比如嵌入党派理念和组织机构的社交网络。我们运用了多种方法以揭示组织的动员效应，其中包括无政府主义工会选举战略的短期且急剧的改变。
This article examines the process of electoral mobilization that follows the extension of voting rights to low-income citizens. We take advantage of a historically unique panel data set of official registers that includes individual voting roll calls as well as individual demographics of almost 25,000 electors in Barcelona in the 1930s, matched with relevant precinct-level socioeconomic, political, and geographical data. We show that voting was driven by the direct mobilization strategies developed by political parties and by those social organizations, such as trade unions, that encompassed an important part of society. This was the case especially among unskilled workers and in areas with a high density of working-class voters. We also show that turnout was shaped by indirect channels, such as the social networks in which partisan ideas and organizations were embedded. To identify the mobilizing effects of organizations, we rely on a variety of strategies, including a sharp, short-term change in an anarchist trade union’s electoral strategies.
27 从市政厅组建政党：巴西的党员和市政府
【题目】
Building Parties from City Hall: Party Membership and Municipal Government in Brazil
【作者】
Cameron J. Sells Tulane University
【摘要】
在什么条件下，地方任职有助于政党招募新成员？本文采用断点回归设计，研究了巴西市政府任职对党员招募的影响，发现任职对基层党建的影响取决于政党先前的制度化水平。市政府任职只会增加在本市已经建立了组织机构的、集中化计划型政党的成员招募，对于弱小政党的影响甚微，有时甚至会适得其反。我还发现，恩庇只是部分解释了制度化政党的在职优势，而在职有助于这些政党招募到主动寻求加入或即使当政党在野也仍然依附的高强度成员。
Under what conditions does local incumbency help a party recruit new members? In this article, I use a regression discontinuity design to study the consequences of municipal incumbency for party membership recruitment in Brazil, and I find that the effect of incumbency on grassroots party building is conditional on the party’s prior level of institutionalization. Municipal incumbency increased membership recruitment only among centralized and programmatic parties that already had a well-established organizational presence in the municipality, and it was ineffective and sometimes even counterproductive for weaker parties. I also find evidence that the incumbency advantage for institutionalized parties is only partly explained by patronage, and incumbency helps these parties recruit high-intensity members who seek to participate in the party and who remain affiliated with the party even when it is no longer in power.
28 女性候选人对亲密伴侣暴力态度的影响
【题目】
The Effect of Electing Female Candidates on Attitudes toward Intimate Partner Violence
【作者】
Nicholas Kuipers University of California, Berkeley
【摘要】
如何鼓励人们谴责亲密伴侣暴力？以印度尼西亚为例，我通过把选举数据与大规模健康调查相结合，发现在地方议会选举中女性候选人的微弱胜利使认可丈夫殴打妻子合理性的女性选民比例有所下降。我也观察到男性选民中存在相似结果，尽管其中一些估计在统计学上并不显著。这些结果使我们更好地理解描述性代表作为改变态度的原因而不仅仅是结果的作用。
What can be done to encourage people to condemn intimate partner violence? Looking at Indonesia, I combine electoral data with a large-scale health survey and find that the narrow victory of a female candidate—as opposed to a male candidate—in local council elections leads to a decrease in the share of female constituents who agree that a husband is justified in assaulting his wife. I observe similar results for male constituents, although some estimates are not statistically significant. These results improve our understanding of the role of descriptive representation as a cause, rather than simply a consequence, of changing attitudes.
29 特定类型的描述性代表？理解候选人的肤色和性别如何影响黑人政治
【题目】
A Certain Type of Descriptive Representative? Understanding How the Skin Tone and Gender of Candidates Influences Black Politics
【作者】
Camille D. Burg Villanova University
Julian J. Wamble George Washington University
Rachel R. Cuomo Yeshiva University
【摘要】
尽管社会学家和心理学家一再表明，肤色主义影响了美国黑人对其种族群体成员的评价，但奇怪且具有讽刺意味的是，有关选举政治中肤色主义的文献仍然缺乏对美国黑人的研究。我们通过考察——黑人候选人的肤色和性别如何影响了黑人的投票意向以及对代表制的看法——来填补这一空白。通过对1260名有不同性别和肤色的美国黑人政治候选人（我们分析了其中的839名）的原始调查实验，我们发现肤色较深的候选人比肤色浅的候选人更受欢迎。其研究结果促进了选举政治中肤色主义的研究，并对探讨描述性代表的文献具有广泛的影响。
Although sociologists and psychologists have repeatedly demonstrated that colorism shapes how Black Americans evaluate members of their racial group, the literature on colorism in electoral politics remains curiously and ironically bereft of studies of Black Americans. We fill this lacuna in our article by asking how and in what ways might the skin tone and gender of Black candidates shape Blacks’ vote intention along with perceptions of representativeness? Using an original survey experiment with 1,260 Black Americans (of which we analyze 839) that varies the gender and skin tone of political candidates, we find that darker-skinned candidates are evaluated more favorably than lighter-skinned candidates. Our results advance the research on colorism in electoral politics and have sweeping implications for the vast body of literature on descriptive representation.
30 种族歧视与党派歧视的交叉：来自对四年制大学研究的证据
【题目】
The Intersection of Racial and Partisan Discrimination: Evidence from a Correspondence Study of Four-Year Colleges
【作者】
James N. Druckman Northwestern University
Richard M. Shafranek Northwestern University
【摘要】
社会决策往往充满偏见，并可能导致某些群体被歧视。少数族裔经常发现自己受到这种歧视。最近的研究也揭示了党派偏见，比如一个政党的成员会不公平地偏袒他们的同党或者歧视另一个政党的成员。我们通过使用电子邮件通信研究以考察种族歧视和党派歧视在高等教育中的影响。我们并没有找到有关种族或政治偏见的直接证据，但发现，无论非裔美国人以何种方式提及政治，他们得到的回应都（相比其它族群）要少得多。这与种族威胁理论相一致：多数派会反对可能威胁其政治、经济或社会地位的少数派。
Social decisions are often imbued with biases that can lead to discrimination against certain groups of people. Racial minorities frequently find themselves on the receiving end of such discrimination. Recent work also reveals partisan bias such that members of one political party unfairly favor their co-partisans or discriminate against members of the other party. In this article, we use an e-mail correspondence study to explore the impact of racial and partisan discrimination in higher education. We find no direct evidence of a racial or political bias; however, we do find that African Americans who reference politics in any way receive substantially fewer responses. This coheres with the theory of racial threat: members of a majority group are averse to minorities who might threaten their political, economic, or social status.
31 传统领导人与2014-2015年的埃博拉疫情
【题目】
Traditional Leaders and the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic
【作者】
Peter van der Windt New York University Abu Dhabi
Maarten Voors Wageningen University
【摘要】
我们评估了传统权威当局在2014-2015年塞拉利昂爆发的严重卫生危机——埃博拉疫情中的作用。我们探究当地酋长职位政治竞争中可能存在的外生变异，发现传统领导人帮助塑造了埃博拉疫情的发展进程。拥有更有权威的酋长的地区所记录的埃博拉病例（相比其它地区）明显要少得多。我们认为，这一结果与视传统权威当局为“坐寇”的观点是一致的。在这种观点中，领导者根植当地并得以直接从控制疾病扩散中获取利益，而能最有效实施控制措施的是更具权势的酋长。
We assess the role of traditional authorities during an acute health crisis, the 2014–15 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. We exploit plausible exogenous variation in the political competition for local chieftaincy positions and find evidence that traditional leaders helped shape the course of the epidemic. Locations with more “powerful” chiefs experienced substantially fewer recorded Ebola cases. We argue that this result is consistent with a view of traditional authorities as “stationary bandits,” in which leaders are locally embedded and thus benefited directly from controlling the spread of the disease. Subsequently, control measures were most effectively implemented by more powerful chiefs.
32 对间接统治、种族融合与去殖民化关系的再分析
【题目】
A Reanalysis of the Relationship between Indirect Rule, Ethnic Inclusion, and Decolonization
【作者】
Richard J. McAlexander University of Pennsylvania
【摘要】
殖民时代的间接统治是否在后独立时代促使了更好的种族融合呢？这篇短文重复了最近的一项探究英国和法国殖民统治时期的外生变异的研究。Wucherpfennig、Hunziker和Cederman认为，英国和法国殖民地在独立后经历了不同程度的种族融合，这归因于大都市蓝图的直接和间接统治。我复制了这项研究，采取更加精细的间接统治的测量方式，使用一个连续变量来代替二元指标，并发现第一阶段的结果并不成立，甚至产生了相反的效应。我发现，与直接统治的殖民地相比，距离海岸较远、受到间接统治的英国殖民地的民族更不可能经历种族融合。我认为英法帝国在种族融合方面的差异可以归因于去殖民化进程中的政策。
Did indirect rule during the colonial era cause greater ethnic inclusion in the post-independence era? This short article replicates a recent study that exploits exogenous variation in British and French colonial rule. Wucherpfennig, Hunziker, and Cederman argue that British and French colonies experienced different levels of post-independence ethnic inclusion, and this was due to the metropolitan blueprints of direct and indirect rule. I replicate this study by using a more granular measure of indirect rule—substituting a binary indicator with a continuous variable—and show that the first-stage results do not hold and produce opposite effects. I find that ethnic groups that are farther from the coast in British colonies that were ruled more indirectly are less likely to experience ethnic inclusion than in directly ruled colonies. I suggest that differences in ethnic inclusion between the British and French empires can be attributed to policies during the process of decolonization.
33 美国政治中的党内两极分化
【题目】
Intraparty Polarization in American Politics
【作者】
Eric Groenendyk University of Memphis
Michael W. Sances Temple University
Kirill Zhirkov University of Michigan
【摘要】
研究表明，精英阶层的两极分化和群众分化导致了政党之间的敌意爆发，但共和党人和民主党人对他们各自的政党有何看法？这些趋势是否会导致政党内部更加团结抑或更加分裂？利用美国国家选举研究的时间序列数据，我们首先表明了意识形态极端派和意识形态温和派之间的党内两极分化正在上升。第二，我们证明了政党内部的这种分化对于人们如何看待政党之间的情感两极分化有着重要的影响。具体地说，党派之间的相对影响的分布并不是双峰的，而是分散的。因此，即使平均而言党派已经变得情感两极分化，但从模态上来说并没有。这些结果表明，两极分化和分层可能会增强第三方政党候选人的行动能力，并使重新调整的可能性更大。
Research shows that elite polarization and mass sorting have led to an explosion of hostility between parties, but how do Republicans and Democrats feel toward their own respective parties? Have these trends led to more cohesion or more division within parties? Using the American National Election Studies time series, we first show that intraparty polarization between ideologically extreme and ideologically moderate partisans is on the rise. Second, we demonstrate that this division within parties has important implications for how we think about affective polarization between parties. Specifically, the distribution of relative affect between parties has not become bimodal but merely dispersed. Thus, while the mean partisan has become affectively polarized, the modal partisan has not. These results suggest polarization and sorting may be increasing the viability of third-party candidates and making realignment more likely.
翻 译：满彩霞 周佳银 夏小奇
校 对：满彩霞 周佳银 夏小奇
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编辑：余亚维
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
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