国际顶刊 | 《英国政治科学杂志》第52卷（2022年）第1期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《英国政治科学杂志》2022年第52卷第2期摘要编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
British Journal of Political Science（英国政治科学杂志）被广泛认为是政治科学领域内的主要期刊之一。该刊发表的论文来自政治科学的所有领域（包括政治理论、政治行为、公共政策和国际关系）以及相关学科（社会学、社会心理学、经济学和哲学）。该刊2021年JCR报告中JIF=5.615，在187种政治科学类SSCI期刊中排名第11（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Do Stereotypes Explain Discrimination Against Minority Candidates or Discrimination in Favor of Majority Candidates?
刻板印象是否解释了针对少数派候选人的歧视或有利于多数派候选人的区别对待？
Do Disabled Candidates Represent Disabled Citizens?
残疾候选人代表残疾公民吗？
The Diminishing Value of Representing the Disadvantaged: Between Group Representation and Individual Career Paths
代表弱势群体的价值不断降低：介于群体代表和个人职业道路之间
Can Elites Escape Blame by Explaining Themselves? Suspicion and the Limits of Elite Explanations
精英们能否通过解释来规避指责——精英解释的怀疑与局限性
Partisan Misalignment and the Counter-Partisan Response: How National Politics Conditions Majority-Party Policy Making in the American States
党派不一致和反党派反应：国家政治如何制约美国各州多数党的政策制定
Learning at Home and Abroad: How Competition Conditions the Diffusion of Party Strategies
在国内和国外学习：竞争如何制约政党战略的扩散
The Ties That Bind: Text Similarities and Conditional Diffusion among Parties
联结的纽带: 文本相似性和政党之间有条件的扩散
Living Together, Voting Together: Voters Moving in Together Before an Election Have Higher Turnout
共同生活，共同投票：选举前同居的选民有更高的投票率
Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Manipulations in Russia
候选人的筛选：俄罗斯选举操纵的战略运用
Politics of Nostalgia and Populism: Evidence from Turkey
怀旧政治与民粹主义政治：来自土耳其的证据
Railroads and Reform: How Trains Strengthened the Nation State
铁路与改革：火车如何加强国家
The Origins of Colonial Investments in Former British and French Africa
前英属非洲与前法属非洲殖民投资的起源
Incumbents Beware: The Impact of Offshoring on Elections
现任者须注意离岸外包对选举的影响
Do Investor–State Disputes (Still) Harm FDI?
投资者与国家之间的争端（仍然）会损害外国直接投资吗？
What We Talk about When We Talk about Poverty: Culture and Welfare State Development in Britain, Denmark and France
当我们谈论贫困的时候，我们谈论些什么：英国、丹麦和法国的文化与福利国家的发展
Cyber Terrorism and Public Support for Retaliation – A Multi-Country Survey Experiment
网络恐怖主义以及公众对于报复的支持——一项多国调查实验
The Interaction of Structural Factors and Diffusion in Social Unrest: Evidence from the Swing Riots
社会动乱中结构性因素和扩散的相互作用：来自施荣暴动的证据
Hate Speech Prosecution of Politicians and its Effect on Support for the Legal System and Democracy
对政客的仇恨言论起诉及其对支持法制和民主的影响
Mitigating Servility: Policies of Egalitarian Self-Relations
减轻奴性：平等主义自我关系的政策
Libertarian Paternalism and the Problem of Preference Architecture
自由家长主义与偏好结构问题
How Credit Markets Substitute for Welfare States and Influence Social Policy Preferences: Evidence from US States
信贷市场如何替代福利国家并影响社会政策偏好：来自美国各州的证据
PART 3
摘要译文
01 刻板印象是否解释了针对少数派候选人的歧视或有利于多数派候选人的区别对待？
【标题】
Do Stereotypes Explain Discrimination Against Minority Candidates or Discrimination in Favor of Majority Candidates?
【作者】
Lea Portmann
【摘要】
学者们研究了负面刻板印象在选举中对少数派候选人的歧视中所起的作用。作者结合关于群体内偏爱的文献，认为这种歧视在一定程度上可以用选民对多数派候选人持有积极的刻板印象并进行有利于他们的区别对待来解释。这项研究基于在意大利进行的一项原始机制调节调查实验的结果，该研究提供了与移民出身候选人有关的选举歧视证据，这些歧视集中在右翼公民中。研究发现，刻板印象对移民背景候选人的歧视几乎没有调解作用；相反，刻板印象的主要作用是有利于多数派候选人的歧视，也就是为他们提供选举利益的积极偏见。这一发现证实了群体内偏爱的相关性，即大部分意大利选民对多数派候选人持有明显的正面刻板印象，而对移民出身的候选人也没有负面刻板印象。
Scholars have examined the role that negative stereotypes play in electoral discrimination against minority candidates. Incorporating literature on in-group favoritism, the author argues here that some degree of this discrimination can be explained instead by voters holding positive stereotypes of majority candidates and discriminating in their favor. Based on the results of an original moderation-of-process survey experiment carried out in Italy, the study provides evidence of electoral discrimination pertaining to immigrantorigin candidates, concentrated among right-wing citizens. It finds that stereotypes have little mediating effect on discrimination against candidates with a migration background; rather, the primary role played by stereotypes is in discrimination in favor of majority candidates, that is, positive bias that reserves electoral benefits to them. The relevance of in-group favoritism is corroborated by the finding that large segments of the Italian voting population hold distinctively positive stereotypes of majority candidates without also negatively stereotyping immigrant-origin candidates.
02 残疾候选人代表残疾公民吗？
【标题】
Do Disabled Candidates Represent Disabled Citizens?
【作者】
Stefanie Reher
【摘要】
公民是否能被“像他们一样”的政治家更好地代表，一直是许多辩论和分析的主题。然而，这项学术研究在很大程度上忽视了占人口五分之一的、经历着经济、社会和政治的边缘化的残疾人。本研究将2015年英国大选的选民和候选人数据联系起来，研究了残疾精英是否能更好地代表残疾公民的意志。它分析了残疾对偏好和偏好一致性的影响。结果显示，残疾公民和候选人即使是在政党内部，也更支持医疗保健和一般公共支出。与此同时，残疾公民的观点很少比非残疾候选人的观点更符合残疾候选人的立场，但医疗支出除外。这项研究为残疾在政策偏好和政治代表中的作用提供了突破性的见解，同时也强调了如何分析描述性代表与实质性代表联系的更广泛影响。
Whether citizens are better represented by politicians ‘like them’ has been the subject of much debate and analysis. Yet, this scholarship has largely ignored the 1 in 5 people who are disabled and experience economic, social and political marginalization. Linking voter and candidate data from the 2015 British general election, this study examines whether disabled citizens are better represented by disabled elites. It analyses the effects of disability on both preferences and preference congruence. The findings reveal that disabled citizens and candidates are more supportive of healthcare and general public spending, even within parties. At the same time, the views of disabled citizens are rarely more congruent with the positions of disabled candidates than those of non-disabled candidates, except on healthcare spending. The study provides ground-breaking insights into the role of disability in policy preferences and political representation while also highlighting broader implications of how the descriptive–substantive representation link is analysed.
03 代表弱势群体的价值不断降低：介于群体代表和个人职业道路之间
【标题】
The Diminishing Value of Representing the Disadvantaged: Between Group Representation and Individual Career Paths
【作者】
Stefanie Bailer, Christian Breunig, Nathalie Giger and Andreas M. Wüst
【摘要】
加强的描述性代表会导向实质性代表吗？与弱势群体有共同描述性特征的立法者不一定代表他们的群体利益。相反，议员（MPs）会战略性地选择何时参与他们相应群体的政策议题。议员在其职业生涯的开始阶段代表他们各自的群体，因为当他们没有立法记录同时也很少有机会展示专业知识的时候，这样做可以让他们获得人民的可信度。在他们职业生涯的后期，这些针对特定群体的努力被其他立法活动所取代。作者将这一理论预期应用于四个弱势群体——妇女、移民、低社会阶层和年轻人，从而为描述性代表提供了一个广泛的视角。他们的样本由一个独特的数据库组成，该数据库将德国议员的传记信息与1998年至2013年期间的主题编码的议会问题相结合。该研究表明，在不同类型的议员中，代表弱势群体的价值越来越小。
Does enhanced descriptive representation lead to substantive representation? Legislators who share descriptive features with disadvantaged groups do not necessarily represent their group interests. Instead, Members of Parliament (MPs) strategically choose when to engage with the policy topic of their corresponding groups. MPs represent their respective group at the beginning of their career because it confers credibility when they have no legislative track record and few opportunities to demonstrate expertise. These group-specific efforts are replaced by other legislative activities at later stages of their careers. The authors apply this theoretical expectation across four disadvantaged groups – women, migrants, low social class and the young – and thereby offer a broad perspective on descriptive representation. Their sample consists of a unique data base that combines biographical information on German MPs with topic-coded parliamentary questions for the period 1998 to 2013. The study demonstrates the diminishing value of representing the disadvantaged across different types of MPs.
04 精英们能否通过解释来规避指责——精英解释的怀疑与局限性
【标题】
Can Elites Escape Blame by Explaining Themselves? Suspicion and the Limits of Elite Explanations
【作者】
Joshua Robison
【摘要】
让民选官员对其执政行为负责是公民面临的一项基本任务。民选官员为了减轻他们可能因采取有争议的行动而受到的指责，试图通过解释他们的行为来影响这一问责过程。本文论述了精英解释和问责制的文献中一个关键限制，即缺乏对有关官员行为的冲突信息的关注。这项研究在三个预先登记的调查实验中显示，当其他发言人提供针对官员潜在的别有用心的反驳性解释时，其解释是无效的。研究进一步表明，即使反面解释来自于可信度较低的党派，也会发生这种情况。这些结果意味着民选官员的行动自由度比现有工作所允许的要小，并突显了精英行为与问责过程之间关系的重要张力。
Holding elected officials accountable for their behavior in office is a foundational task facing citizens. Elected officials attempt to influence this accountability process by explaining their behavior with an eye toward mitigating the blame they might receive for taking controversial actions. This article addresses a critical limitation in the literature on elite explanation giving and accountability: the absence of attention to conflicting information regarding the official’ s behavior. The study shows across three preregistered survey experiments that explanations are ineffective when other speakers offer counter-explanations that focus on the official’s potential ulterior motives. It further demonstrates that this occurs even when the counter-explanation comes from a partisan source with low credibility. These results imply that elected officials enjoy less leeway for their actions than existing work allows, and highlight important tensions concerning the relationship between elite behavior and accountability processes.
05 党派不一致和反党派反应：国家政治如何制约美国各州多数党的政策制定
【标题】
Partisan Misalignment and the Counter-Partisan Response: How National Politics Conditions Majority-Party Policy Making in the American States
【作者】
Nicholas S. Miras and Stella M. Rouse
【摘要】
当一个政党获得对美国国家管理机构的控制权时，它就会增加制定其政策议程的可能性。面对这种党派不一致，作者预计，由国家层面的在野党控制的州政府会以州政策上的更高积极性来应对国家层面的党派环境。该研究考察了1974年至2019年各州政策自由主义的变化，发现当反对党对华盛顿的国家政策议程有更大的党派控制时，共和党和民主党控制的州都将政策进一步推向他们偏好的意识形态方向。它还确定了两党之间的差异。虽然随着民主党人在国家层面上获得权力，共和党控制的效果略有增加，但民主党控制的州在共和党国家控制期间的政策自由主义发生了显著更大的变化。然而，这种安排出现在20世纪90年代中期以来更加两极分化的政治环境中，似乎是一种当代安排。
When one political party gains control of American national governing institutions, it increases the prospects of enacting its policy agenda. Faced with this partisan misalignment, the authors expect state governments controlled by the national out-party to respond to the national partisan context with more state policy activism. The study examines changes in state policy liberalism from 1974 to 2019, and finds that both Republican- and Democratic-controlled states have pushed policy further in their preferred ideological directions when the opposing party has greater partisan control over the national policy agenda in Washington. It also identifies differences between the two parties. While the effect of Republican control modestly increases as Democrats gain power at the national level, Democratic-controlled states have shown dramatically larger shifts in policy liberalism during periods of Republican national control. This arrangement, however, appears to be a contemporary one, emerging in the more polarized political environment since the mid-1990s.
06 在国内和国外学习：竞争如何制约政党战略的扩散
【标题】
Learning at Home and Abroad: How Competition Conditions the Diffusion of Party Strategies
【作者】
Sebastian Juhl and Laron K. Williams
【摘要】
政党在高度的不确定性的情况下如何决定何时就价值问题进行竞选？尽管过去的研究提供了政党立场策略的跨国模仿的证据，但这些发现并不直接适用于显著性策略。此外，确切的扩散机制在很大程度上仍然难以捉摸。基于问题显著性文献，本研究提出了新颖的理论命题，表示有意识的学习使政党能够推断在竞选期间强调共识问题的相对效用。由于议题竞争的不同逻辑，该理论在国内和跨国层面上引发了不同的期望。通过分析政党宣言中的环境问题重点，作者发现政党的显著性战略之间存在直接的跨国依赖和间接的溢出效应。他们认为，起作用的扩散机制是有意识的学习，而不仅仅是模仿或独立的决策。然而，根据基于显著性的理论，选举竞争削弱了选举战略在国内的传播。
How do parties decide when to campaign on valence issues given high degrees of uncertainty? Although past studies have provided evidence of transnational emulation of parties’ position-taking strategies, these findings do not directly apply to saliency strategies. Moreover, the exact diffusion mechanism remains largely elusive. Based on the issue saliency literature, this study develops novel theoretical propositions and argues that conscious learning enables parties to infer the relative utility of emphasizing consensual issues during an electoral campaign. The proposed theory gives rise to different expectations at the domestic and transnational levels because of the distinct logic of issue competition. By analyzing environmental issue emphasis in party manifestos, the authors find direct transnational dependencies and indirect spillover effects among the parties’ saliency strategies. They identify conscious learning, rather than mere imitation or independent decision making, as the diffusion mechanism at work. Yet, in line with saliency-based theories, electoral competition mutes the diffusion of electoral strategies domestically.
07 联结的纽带: 文本相似性和政党之间有条件的扩散
【标题】
The Ties That Bind: Text Similarities and Conditional Diffusion among Parties
【作者】
Nils Düpont and Martin Rachuj
【摘要】
对政党政策扩散的比较分析才渐渐出现。为了更好地理解扩散发生的条件，本文认为，三种启发式方法——可得性、代表性和锚定——塑造了政党（从其他地方）收集信息的努力，导致了不同的扩散效果。该研究应用文本分析的方法和计算机翻译，将结果可操作化为1960年至2016年19个西方民主国家的政党宣言的文本相似性。通过分析配对关系，它评估了共同点和发送者/接收者的属性如何影响扩散。研究发现，由于成功的政党坚持他们的旧方案，跨境扩散的空间很小。除了仍然占主导的国内环境，一个地区的“向文化参照群体学习”是最重要的。此外，扩散在欧洲议会派系和跨国政党组织内部出现而与发送者的成功/失败无关。因此，该分析揭示了政党政策扩散的（非）有利条件，并为今后应用计算机翻译和定量文本分析的研究铺平了道路。
Comparative analyses of party policy diffusion are only just emerging. To better understand the conditions under which diffusion occurs, this article argues that three heuristics – availability, representativeness and anchoring – shape parties’ efforts to gather information (from elsewhere), leading to differing diffusion effects. The study operationalizes the outcome as textual similarity of party manifestos in nineteen Western democracies from 1960 to 2016, applying a text-as-data approach and machine translation. Analyzing dyads, it assesses how commonalities and sender/receiver attributes impact diffusion. It finds that there is little room for cross-border diffusion as successful parties stick to their old program. Beyond the still-prevailing domestic context, ‘learning from cultural reference groups’ in a region is most important. In addition, diffusion appears within EP factions and transnational party organizations independently of the success/loss of the sender. The analysis thus sheds light on (un-)favorable conditions for party policy diffusion and paves the way for future studies applying machine translation and quantitative text analyses.
08 共同生活，共同投票：选举前同居的选民有更高的投票率
【标题】
Living Together, Voting Together: Voters Moving in Together Before an Election Have Higher Turnout
【作者】
Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Yosef Bhatti, Jonas Hedegaard Hansen and Kasper M. Hansen
【摘要】
学者们先前注意到，与单独生活的个人相比，夫妻更有可能参加投票，而且伴侣的投票行为是密切相关的。本研究对一个大型行政数据集进行了研究，该数据集包含了关于有效投票率和个人同居时间点的详细信息，并发现有证据表明,同居后投票率会有大幅和稳健的增长。该研究利用了这样一个事实，即在选举前同居的两个选民的家庭与在选举后同居的家庭具有可比性。根据不同的模型规格，投票率在同居后的几个月内增加了3.5到10.6个百分点。无论他们自己和他们的同居者在前一次选举中的投票行为如何，选民都被动员起来。这些结果对几个稳健性检查是稳健的，包括以搬家的单身人士为基准进行测试，以降低分析中的搬家成本。这些结果强调了社会规范的重要性，以及家庭作为近似社会网络增加投票率的基本作用。
Scholars have long noted that couples are more likely to vote compared to individuals who live alone, and that partners’ turnout behavior is strongly correlated. This study examines a large administrative dataset containing detailed information about validated turnout and the timing of individuals moving in together, and finds evidence of a substantial and robust increase in turnout after cohabitation. The study exploits the fact that two-voter households moving in together right before an election are comparable to those moving in together right after the election. Depending on the model specification, turnout increases by 3.5 to 10.6 percentage points in the months after taking up cohabitation. Voters are mobilized regardless of their own and their cohabitant’s turnout behavior in a previous election. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including benchmarking with singles who move to mitigate the cost of moving in the analysis. The results highlight the importance of social norms and the household’s essential role as a proximate social network that increases turnout.
09 候选人的筛选：俄罗斯选举操纵的战略运用
【标题】
Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Manipulations in Russia
【作者】
David Szakonyi
【摘要】
在任者有很多工具可以使选举对他们有利，但人们对他们如何选择策略却知之甚少。通过比较各种策略，本文认为，以制度性操纵为中心的选举舞弊在保护现任者免受公众愤怒和刑事起诉的同时提供了最大的效力。为了证明这一点，这项研究聚焦于一种普遍存在的制度策略：阻止候选人进入选举。首先，在调查实验中，俄罗斯选民对拒绝候选人等制度性操纵的消极反应要小于对填塞选举等公然欺诈的消极反应。接着，利用25935名俄罗斯市长竞选的证据，文章表明，较低的社会和实施成本使现任者能够从战略上拒绝来自可信挑战者的候选资格，然后降低他们在选举中的脆弱性。总之，特定操纵背后的技术有助于确定在任者何时以及如何违反选举的诚信。
Incumbents have many tools to tip elections in their favor, yet little is known about how they choose between strategies. By comparing various tactics, this article argues that electoral malpractice centered on manipulating institutions offers the greatest effectiveness while shielding incumbents from public anger and criminal prosecution. To demonstrate this, the study focuses on a widespread institutional tactic: preventing candidates from accessing the ballot. First, in survey experiments, Russian voters respond less negatively to institutional manipulations, such as rejecting candidates, than to blatant fraud, such as ballot box stuffing. Next, using evidence from 25,935 Russian mayoral races, the article shows that lower societal and implementation costs enable incumbents to strategically reject candidacies from credible challengers and then reduce their electoral vulnerability. In all, the technology behind specific manipulations helps determine when and how incumbents violate electoral integrity.
10 怀旧政治与民粹主义政治：来自土耳其的证据
【标题】
Politics of Nostalgia and Populism: Evidence from Turkey
【作者】
Ezgi Elçi
【摘要】
本文仔细研究了集体怀旧和民粹主义之间的关系。不同的民粹主义人物通过提及他们国家“过去美好的光辉岁月”和利用对精英和当权者的不满来利用怀旧。民粹主义者利用怀旧来创造他们的民粹主义中心地带——一个基于被遗弃的、不死的过去而回顾性地构建的乌托邦。本研究使用来自土耳其的两个原始数据集，首先分析了集体怀旧是否是选民的民粹主义态度的特征。结果表明，即使控制了各种独立变量，包括宗教性、党派性、生活满意度和欧洲怀疑论，集体怀旧与民粹主义态度仍有明显的正相关。其次，该研究使用一个在线调查实验来检验怀旧信息是否影响民粹主义态度。结果表明，奥斯曼帝国的怀旧情绪有助于增加民粹主义态度。然而，凯末尔主义的怀旧情绪对民粹主义态度的直接影响很弱，在控制了政党偏好之后，这种民粹主义态度就消失了。
This article scrutinizes the relationship between collective nostalgia and populism. Different populist figures utilize nostalgia by referring to their country’s ‘good old’ glorious days and exploiting resentment of the elites and establishment. Populists instrumentalize nostalgia in order to create their populist heartland, which is a retrospectively constructed utopia based on an abandoned but undead past. Using two original datasets from Turkey, this study first analyzes whether collective nostalgia characterizes populist attitudes of the electorate. The results illustrate that collective nostalgia has a significantly positive relationship with populist attitudes even after controlling for various independent variables, including religiosity, partisanship, satisfaction with life and Euroscepticism. Secondly, the study tests whether nostalgic messages affect populist attitudes using an online survey experiment. The results indicate that Ottoman nostalgia helps increase populist attitudes. Kemalist nostalgia, however, has a weak direct effect on populist attitudes that disappears after controlling for party preference.
11 铁路与改革：火车如何加强国家
【标题】
Railroads and Reform: How Trains Strengthened the Nation State
【作者】
Alexandra L. Cermeño , Kerstin Enflo and Johannes Lindvall
【摘要】
本文研究了铁路的到来、初等教育的扩展和国家学校课程的引入之间的关系。文章利用19世纪瑞典当地教育成果的精细数据，检验了铁路网络的发展使国内的学校督察员能够更有效地监督偏远学校的观点。在有学校督察员可以通过铁路前往的地方，就有更多的儿童在固定的公立学校就读，并参加地理和历史等国家建设科目的课程。相比之下，在偏远地区——学校督察员无法乘火车到达的地区，地方和宗教权威的教区利益在仍然占主导地位。本文对这些研究结果进行了因果解释，结果对固定学校中的儿童的占比来说是稳健的，这对课程设置来说很有启发。因此，本文的结论是，铁路作为第一次工业革命的决定性创新，直接关系到国家贯彻公共政策的能力。
This paper examines the relationship between the coming of the railroads, the expansion of primary education, and the introduction of national school curricula. Using fine-grained data on local education outcomes in Sweden in the nineteenth century, the paper tests the idea that the development of the railroad network enabled national school inspectors to monitor remote schools more effectively. In localities to which school inspectors could travel by rail, a larger share of children attended permanent public schools and took classes in nation-building subjects such as geography and history. By contrast, the parochial interests of local and religious authorities continued to dominate in remote areas school inspectors could not reach by train. The paper argues for a causal interpretation of these findings, which are robust for the share of children in permanent schools and suggestive for the content of the curriculum. The paper therefore concludes that the railroad, the defining innovation of the First Industrial Revolution, mattered directly for the state’s ability to implement public policies.
12 前英属非洲与前法属非洲殖民投资的起源
【标题】
The Origins of Colonial Investments in Former British and French Africa
【作者】
Joan Ricart-Huguet
【摘要】
殖民投资长期影响了政治和经济发展，但关于其起源和空间分布的系统证据却很少。本文结合新的数据来源发现，殖民投资在16个英国和法国非洲殖民地的分布非常不均衡。是什么导致殖民国家在一些地区的投资远远超过其他地区？作者认为，天然的港口和岬角使一些地方成为殖民前的沿海贸易中心，这不仅在基础设施方面，还在卫生和教育方面，反过来增加了后来的殖民投资。此外，与前殖民贸易点的距离有助于解释每个殖民地内投资的扩散。作者发现对诸如自然资源和殖民前的民族特征解释的支持有限，包括殖民前政治上的中央集权化等。这两个发现表明，在殖民时期和当代观察到的区域和民族差异有其经济根源。
Colonial investments impacted long-run political and economic development, but there is little systematic evidence of their origins and spatial distribution. Combining novel data sources, this article shows that colonial investments were very unequally distributed within sixteen British and French African colonies. What led colonial states to invest much more in some districts than others? The author argues that natural harbors and capes led some places to become centers of pre-colonial coastal trade, which in turn increased later colonial investments not only in infrastructure but also in health and education. Furthermore, distance from pre-colonial trading posts helps explain the diffusion of investments within each colony. The author finds limited support for alternative explanations such as natural resources and pre-colonial ethnic characteristics, including pre-colonial political centralization. These two findings suggest an economic origin for the regional and ethnic disparities observed in the colonial and contemporary periods.
13 现任者须注意离岸外包对选举的影响
【标题】
Incumbents Beware: The Impact of Offshoring on Elections
【作者】
Stephanie J. Rickard
【摘要】
全球化如何影响政治？全球化最具争议的一个方面是离岸外包，即制造业务和商业职能转移到国外。尽管选民普遍不喜欢离岸外包，但工作岗位转移到国外对民主选举的影响仍不清楚。作者使用差异估计策略发现，在选举期间，当地工厂将生产转移到国外的城市的现任政府政党会比没有发生这种情况的城市的现任政府政党失去更多的选票。这一结果在不同的时间段、不同的在任党派和不同的选举类型中都适用。在国家和地区选举中，在当地公司将生产转移到国外的时候，选民会惩罚现任政府政党。随着离岸外包导致的失业人数增加，在任政党的的得票率下降。在多党制政府中，选民对最大的联合党的离岸外包进行了不同比例的惩罚。西班牙进行的一项原始调查的结果证实了离岸外包对于选民对现任者进行回顾性评估的重要性。
How does globalization affect politics? One of the most controversial aspects of globalization is offshoring, when manufacturing operations and business functions move abroad. Although voters generally dislike offshoring, it remains unclear how moving jobs abroad impacts democratic elections. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, the author finds that incumbent government parties lose more votes in municipalities where a local plant moved production abroad between elections than in municipalities that did not experience such an event. The result holds across various time periods, different incumbent parties and diverse types of elections. In both national and regional elections, voters punish incumbent government parties when a local firm moves production abroad. Incumbent parties’ vote shares fall as the number of jobs lost due to offshoring increases. In multiparty governments, voters disproportionately punish the largest coalition party for offshoring. The results of an original survey administered in Spain verify the importance of offshoring for voters’ retrospective evaluations of incumbents.
14 投资者与国家之间的争端（仍然）会损害外国直接投资吗？
【标题】
Do Investor–State Disputes (Still) Harm FDI?
【作者】
Andrew Kerner and Krzysztof J. Pelc
【摘要】
违反双边投资条约而被起诉的后果是什么？传统观点认为，投资者-国家争端（ISDS）会玷污各国的合规记录，并在这此过程中损害了外国直接投资。本文根据ISDS的最新趋势重新审视这一观点。该制度使索赔不断激增，其中越来越多的索赔指控违反了公平公正待遇以及间接征用等规定。再加上此类索赔成功率下降，作者认为ISDS索赔的平均信息量比以前要少。如果是这样的话，投资者应该不太可能更新预期以及减少投资。这项研究调查了从1987年到现在的812起投资者与国家之间的争端，并在与公司风险感知相关的两个不同数据集中找到了一致的证据。投资者-国家索赔对外国直接投资的后果只有在指控直接征用的案件中才会明显。即使在这些案件中，今天的影响也比过去小。总之，ISDS索赔的声誉效应似乎已被过去20年的发展所侵蚀。ISDS已经不似从前。
What are the consequences of being sued for violating bilateral investment treaties? The conventional wisdom is that investor–state disputes (ISDS) tarnish countries’ compliance records, and harm foreign direct investment in the process. This article re-examines this belief in light of recent trends in ISDS. The regime has witnessed a proliferation of claims, a growing proportion of which allege breaches of provisions like fair and equitable treatment and indirect expropriation. Combined with a decrease in the rate of success of such claims, the authors argue that the average ISDS claim now contains less information than it once did. If this is the case, investors should be less likely to update their expectations and reduce investments. This study examines 812 investor–state disputes from 1987 to the present day, and finds consistent evidence for this across two different datasets relating to firms’ risk perceptions. Consequences of investor–state claims on foreign direct investment are only apparent in cases that allege direct expropriation. Even among these, the effects are smaller today than they were in the past. In sum, the reputational effects of ISDS claims appear to have been eroded by the developments of the last two decades. ISDS just isn’ t what it used to be.
15 当我们谈论贫困的时候，我们谈论些什么：英国、丹麦和法国的文化与福利国家的发展
【标题】
What We Talk about When We Talk about Poverty: Culture and Welfare State Development in Britain, Denmark and France
【作者】
Cathie Martin and Tom Chevalier
【摘要】
为什么英国、丹麦和法国历史上的反贫困项目在其目标、受益者和解决贫困的代理人方面有如此大的差异？对贫困的不同文化观点，促成了决策者对反贫困改革的设想。丹麦的精英们表示，对农民的社会投资是经济增长、政治稳定和社会强大的必要条件。英国的精英们将下层阶级视为对这些目标的挑战。法国人认为穷人是基督教慈善的一个机会。小说家是被忽视的政治代理人，他们参与了政策斗争。作家们共同促成了一个国家独特的“文化约束”，或者说符号和叙事，它们出现在国家层面的文学作品汇总中。为了评估对贫困的文化叙述的跨国差异，本文使用了历史案例研究和对1770年至1920年的562部英国、521部丹麦和498部法国小说作品的定量文本分析。
Why did historical anti-poverty programs in Britain, Denmark and France differ so dramatically in their goals, beneficiaries and agents for addressing poverty? Different cultural views of poverty contributed to how policy makers envisioned anti-poverty reforms. Danish elites articulated social investments in peasants as necessary to economic growth, political stability and societal strength. British elites viewed the lower classes as a challenge to these goals. The French perceived the poor as an opportunity for Christian charity. Fiction writers are overlooked political agents who engage in policy struggles. Collectively, writers contribute to a country’s distinctive ‘cultural constraint’, or symbols and narratives, which appears in the national-level aggregation of literature. To assess cross-national variations in cultural depictions of poverty, this article uses historical case studies and quantitative textual analyses of 562 British, 521 Danish and 498 French fictional works from 1770 to 1920.
16 网络恐怖主义以及公众对于报复的支持——一项多国调查实验
【标题】
Cyber Terrorism and Public Support for Retaliation – A Multi-Country Survey Experiment
【作者】
Ryan Shandler , Michael L. Gross , Sophia Backhaus and Daphna Canetti
【摘要】
接触网络恐怖主义是否会促使人们要求进行报复性军事打击？这是通过什么心理机制做到的？通过一系列随机对照实验，本研究让受访者（n=2028）接触到描述针对美国、英国和以色列的关键基础设施的网络和常规恐怖袭击的电视新闻报道。研究结果表明，只有致命的网络恐怖主义才会引发对报复的强烈支持。研究结果也证实，愤怒是接触网络恐怖主义和报复的桥梁，而不是其他研究所提出的威胁感知或焦虑等心理机制。这些发现将最近的一个趋势延伸到了网络领域，该趋势认为愤怒是将接触恐怖主义与武装分子偏好联系起来的主要机制。随着网络恐怖主义成为国际社会日益关注的问题，这项研究表明，暴露在这种威胁之下，根据攻击的致命性可以产生对报复性政策的强烈公众支持。
Does exposure to cyber terrorism prompt calls for retaliatory military strikes? By what psychological mechanism does it do so? Through a series of controlled, randomized experiments, this study expose respondents (n = 2,028) to television news reports depicting cyber and conventional terror attacks against critical infrastructures in the United States, United Kingdom and Israel. The findings indicate that only lethal cyber terrorism triggers strong support for retaliation. Findings also confirm that anger bridges exposure to cyber terrorism and retaliation, rather than psychological mechanisms such as threat perception or anxiety as other studies propose. These findings extend to the cyber realm a recent trend that views anger as a primary mechanism linking exposure to terrorism with militant preferences. With cyber terrorism a mounting international concern, this study demonstrates how exposure to this threat can generate strong public support for retaliatory policies, depending on the lethality of the attack.
17 社会动乱中结构性因素和扩散的相互作用：来自施荣暴动的证据
【标题】
The Interaction of Structural Factors and Diffusion in Social Unrest: Evidence from the Swing Riots
【作者】
Toke Aidt and Gabriel Leon-Ablan
【摘要】
对社会动乱原因的研究通常集中在结构性因素或扩散方面。本文考虑到它们之间互动的重要性，并揭示了两者之间复杂的相互作用。这种相互作用是在1830-1831年英国施荣暴动的背景下研究的，在这种情况下有可能观察到与每个具体事件相关的结构性因素；这在分析较近的动乱案例时往往是不可能的。作者发现，动乱是由经济因素引发的，扩散使当地因素变化的直接影响增至三倍以上。经济因素和潜在的动乱领导者的存在使一个地区更容易受到即将发生的动乱扩散的影响。结构性因素和扩散的相互作用方式与历史上和最近的社会动乱事例都有关系。
Studies of the causes of social unrest typically focus on structural factors or diffusion. This article demonstrates the importance of considering their interaction and reveals a complex interplay between the two. This interaction is examined in the context of the English Swing riots of 1830–1831, in which it is possible to observe the structural factors relevant to each specific incident; this is often impossible when analyzing more recent cases of unrest. The authors find that the riots were triggered by economic factors and that diffusion more than tripled the direct effect of changes in local factors. Economic factors and the presence of potential riot leaders made an area more susceptible to the incoming diffusion of riots. The ways in which structural factors and diffusion interact is relevant to both historical and recent instances of social unrest.
18 对政客的仇恨言论起诉及其对支持法制和民主的影响
【标题】
Hate Speech Prosecution of Politicians and its Effect on Support for the Legal System and Democracy
【作者】
Roderik Rekker and Joost van Spanje
【摘要】
这项研究考察了因仇恨言论起诉政治家是否，以及对谁来说，会破坏对法律制度和民主的支持。本文将三项研究设计结合起来，以调查荷兰政治家吉尔特·怀德斯的案件，他在2016年因对少数民族发表仇恨言论而被定罪。首先，一项实验表明，观察有罪判决会降低反对多元文化社会的“同化主义者”的支持率。无论他们是否投票给怀尔德，在整个同化主义者群体中，这种支持率都在下降。其次，一项准实验表明，在怀尔德被定罪后接受采访的同化主义者比那些在判决前接受采访并与预测试相比较的同化主义者支持率更低。第三，一项为期九年的小组研究表明，这些影响会累积为长期的不满。因此，本文表明，仇恨言论起诉可能会损害其旨在捍卫的民主制度。
This study examined if and for whom prosecution of politicians for hate speech undermines support for the legal system and democracy. Three research designs were combined to investigate the case of Dutch politician Geert Wilders, who was convicted for hate speech against minorities in 2016. First, an experiment showed that observing a guilty verdict decreased support among ‘assimilationists’ who oppose the multicultural society. This deterioration of support was found among the entire group of assimilationists, regardless of whether they voted for Wilders. Secondly, a quasi-experiment demonstrated that assimilationists who were interviewed after Wilders’ conviction indicated less support than those who were interviewed before the verdict and compared to a pretest. Thirdly, a nine-year panel study suggested that these effects accumulate into long-term discontent. This case therefore demonstrates that hate speech prosecution can damage the democratic system it is intended to defend.
19 减轻奴性：平等主义自我关系的政策
【标题】
Mitigating Servility: Policies of Egalitarian Self-Relations
【作者】
Anne-Sofie Greisen Hojlund
【摘要】
如何理解由人们的自我评价态度产生的部分不平等，以及在政治方面可以做什么来抵消这些不平等？在关系平等主义的核心要素基础之上，本文仔细研究了奴性的情况，认为它是一种在态度上和行为上未能与自己平等相处的情况。从这个角度来看，奴性以及它所引起的不良的分配后果应该被认为是令人反感且需要减轻的。考虑到政治发言权，本文指向了某些家长式的政策，这些政策是通过诱导人们表达他们的要求来改变奴性的一种手段。事实上，由于它们直接针对政治领域中关系平等的态度障碍，这些政策可以作为特别合适的工具。对于此，新的主张认为，家长式作风通过改变奴性态度和行为模式，可以有效地帮助人们以更平等的方式与自己相处。
How should inequalities generated in part by people’s self-devaluing attitudes be understood, and what can be done politically to counteract them? Building on central elements of relational egalitarianism, this article scrutinizes the case of servility as an instance of failure to relate to oneself as an equal, attitudinally and behaviorally speaking. From this perspective, servility as well as the adverse distributive consequences it gives rise to should be considered objectionable and in need of mitigation. Considering the case of political voice, the article points to certain paternalistic policies as a means of altering servility by inducing people to make their claims heard. Indeed, such policies may serve as particularly apt instruments since they directly target attitudinal barriers to relational equality in the political sphere. The novel claim is that paternalism, by altering servile attitudes as well as behavioral patterns, may effectively help make people relate to themselves in a more egalitarian manner.
20 自由家长主义与偏好结构问题
【标题】
Libertarian Paternalism and the Problem of Preference Architecture
【作者】
Johannes Kniess
【摘要】
人们往往无法做出最能满足其偏好的选择。社会环境的设计不可避免地使一些选择比其他选择更容易。根据自由家长主义者的观点，这些事实证明政府通过改变所谓的选择结构来推动人们做出更好的选择是合理的。这是一种手段家长主义的形式。然而，社会环境不仅影响人们的选择或手段，而且也影响他们首要采取的偏好。这就是“偏好结构”的问题。本文认为，偏好结构构成了对自由家长主义正当性基础的根本挑战。更广泛地说，它探讨了影响偏好形成的政府家长主义何时（如果有的话）是合理的。虽然自由家长主义不能提供一个令人满意的答案，但作者捍卫了一种基于初级商品概念和民主审议的、对家长主义的契约主义解释。
People often fail to make the choices that best satisfy their preferences. The design of the social environment inevitably makes some choices easier than others. According to Libertarian Paternalists, these facts justify governments nudging people towards better choices through changes to the so-called choice architecture. This is a form of means paternalism. However, the social environment affects not only people’s choices or means, but also the preferences they adopt in the first place. Call this the problem of ‘preference architecture’. This article argues that preference architecture constitutes a fundamental challenge to the justificatory basis of Libertarian Paternalism. More generally, it explores when, if ever, government paternalism that influences preference formation can be justified. While Libertarian Paternalism cannot provide a satisfactory answer, the author defends a contractualist account of paternalism based on a notion of primary goods and democratic deliberation.
21 信贷市场如何替代福利国家并影响社会政策偏好：来自美国各州的证据
【标题】
How Credit Markets Substitute for Welfare States and Influence Social Policy Preferences: Evidence from US States
【作者】
Andreas Wiedemann
【摘要】
债务和福利国家之间的关系是什么？最近的争论表明，信贷市场往往仅仅在薄弱的经验基础上填补了有限的社会福利所留下的缺口。本文通过使用微观层面的面板数据和利用美国各州福利制度慷慨程度随时间的变化，做出了两项贡献。第一，本文表明与失业救济金高的州相比，失业救济金低的州的失业家庭借贷要多得多。失业替代率下降10个百分点，债务水平将增加约30%，即5300美元。第二，文章指出，在社会政策疲软的背景下，债务增加会产生政治后果，并增加对更强大安全网的支持。一种解释是选民寻求社会保护，以抵御下游债务引发的经济风险。这些发现表明，福利制度可以在减轻日益增长的债务方面发挥关键作用。
What is the relationship between debt and the welfare state? Recent arguments suggest that credit markets fill gaps left by limited social benefits but often rest on thin empirical grounds. This article makes two contributions to this debate by using micro-level panel data and leveraging variation in welfare state generosity across US states and over time. First, it shows that households that experience unemployment borrow significantly more in states where unemployment benefits are low compared to states where benefits are high. A 10-percentage-point decrease in unemployment replacement rates increases debt levels by about 30 per cent, or $5,300. Secondly, the article documents that rising indebtedness in the context of weak social policies has political consequences and increases support for a stronger safety net. One explanation is that voters seek social protection against downstream debt-induced economic risks. These findings suggest that welfare states can play a critical role in mitigating growing indebtedness.
翻 译：石寒冰 孙 滢
校 对：石寒冰 孙 滢
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