国际顶刊 | 《比较政治研究》第55卷（2022年）第1-2期
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《比较政治研究》2022年第55卷第1-2期文章编译。
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PART 1
期刊简介
Comparative Political Studies（《比较政治研究》）是一个比较政治学者和学生交流思想的国际顶刊之一。期刊刊载的文章包括了全球学者关于比较方法论、理论和研究的创新工作。该刊力图向读者展现全球范围内比较政治研究的全景式画面：从第三世界的民主到中东的文武关系，从东欧的选举制度和政党政治到拉丁美洲的经济表现，从比较北美和西欧的政治庇护到亚洲国家的民族冲突。
《比较政治研究》被认为是政治科学中比较政治子领域最为重要的期刊之一。该期刊5年IF=6.058，在《科睿唯安2020年期刊引用报告》（JCR2020）中所涉及的183种政治科学期刊中排名第14位。
PART 2
期刊目录
Volume 55, Issue 1, 2022
Why People Turn to Institutions They Detest: Institutional Mistrust and Justice System Engagement in Uneven Democratic States
为什么人们会求助于他们厌恶的制度：在不平等的民主国家，制度上的不信任和司法系统的参与
When “Marriage” Gets Hard: Intra-Coalition Conflict and Electoral Accountability
当“婚姻”变得艰难：联盟内部冲突和选举责任
Technological Risk and Policy Preferences
技术风险与政策偏好
Satisfaction With Democracy: When Government by the People Brings Electoral Losers and Winners Together
对民主的满足感：当人民政府将选举中的输家和赢家聚集在一起时
Can Conservatism Make Women More Vulnerable to Violence?
保守主义能让女性更容易遭受暴力吗？
Are Immigrant-Origin Candidates Penalized Due to Ingroup Favoritism or Outgroup Hostility?
移民出身的候选人是否因群体内的偏袒或群体外的敌意而受到惩罚？
Volume 55, Issue 2, 2022
Economic Distress and Support for Radical Right Parties—Evidence From Sweden
经济困境和对激进右翼政党的支持来自瑞典的证据
Follow the Money: Gender, Incumbency, and Campaign Funding in Chile
关注金钱：智利的性别、在职和竞选资金
Ministerial Autonomy, Parliamentary Scrutiny and Government Reform Output in Parliamentary Democracies
议会制民主国家中的部长自主权、议会监督和政府改革成果
Party Competition and Cooperation Shape Affective Polarization: Evidence from Natural and Survey Experiments in Israel
政党竞争与合作塑造情感极化：来自以色列自然和调查实验的证据
Volume 55, Issue 1, 2022
01 为什么人们会求助于他们厌恶的制度：在不平等的民主国家，制度上的不信任和司法系统的参与
【题目】
Why People Turn to Institutions They Detest: Institutional Mistrust and Justice System Engagement in Uneven Democratic States
【作者】
Lisa Hilbink, Valentina Salas, Janice K. Gallagher,and Juliana Restrepo San´in
【摘要】
政治上的不信任是否会导致体制上的分离？许多政治学研究认为，信任对政治参与至关重要，包括诉诸于司法系统。司法制度的学者主要依靠调查研究，他们认为低信任会降低法律遵从性和合作，（从而）威胁到法治。与此同时，法律意识和动员学者认为，信任并不能推动司法系统的参与。然而，他们的单一案例研究方法使得评估其发现的更广泛的影响会变得困难。基于在智利和哥伦比亚这两个不平衡的民主国家进行的创新性焦点小组比较研究，作者认为，信任并不是驱动司法系统参与的主要因素。相反，人们的参与决定取决于他们对政治制度的预期和愿望，以及他们在政治上构建的法定代理能力。本文的研究为分析全球不平等民主国家中各种形式的政治参与提供了相关见解。
Does political mistrust lead to institutional disengagement? Much work in political science holds that trust matters for political participation, including recourse to the justice system. Scholars of judicial institutions, relying largely on survey research, argue that low trust decreases legal compliance and cooperation, threatening the rule of law. Legal consciousness and mobilization scholars, meanwhile, suggest that trust does not drive justice system engagement. However, their single-case study approach makes assessing the wider implications of their findings difficult. Based on an innovative comparative focus-group study in two uneven democratic states, Chile and Colombia, we show that trust is not the primary factor driving justice system engagement. Rather, people’s engagement decisions are shaped by their expectations and aspirations for their political system and by their politically constructed capacities for legal agency. Our study offers insights of relevance for analysts of various forms of political participation in uneven democratic states across the globe.
02 当“婚姻”变得艰难：联盟内部冲突和选举责任
【题目】
When “Marriage” Gets Hard: Intra-Coalition Conflict and Electoral Accountability
【作者】
Carolina Plescia and Sylvia Kritzinger
【摘要】
本项研究结合25个欧洲国家的个人层面和事件层面的数据，以及三组欧洲选举研究，分析考察了联合政府中政党之间的冲突对选举问责和责任归因的影响。作者发现，冲突会增加对不良经济表现的惩罚，正是因为它有助于向选民阐明政党在任期内的行动和责任。（政治学人平台编译）结果表明，在冲突条件下，当所有联盟伙伴共同承担经济表现不佳的责任时，对他们的惩罚是平等的。当政府内部没有冲突时，经济评价不佳对投票选择的影响相当低，针对总理所在政党的惩罚略多。这些发现对我们理解选举问责制和联合政府中的政治代表性有重要意义。
Combining individual-level with event-level data across 25 European countries and three sets of European Election Studies, this study examines the effect of conflict between parties in coalition government on electoral accountability and responsibility attribution. We find that conflict increases punishment for poor economic performance precisely because it helps clarify to voters parties’ actions and responsibilities while in office. The results indicate that under conditions of conflict, the punishment is equal for all coalition partners when they share responsibility for poor economic performance. When there is no conflict within a government, the effect of poor economic evaluations on vote choice is rather low, with slightly more punishment targeted to the prime minister’s party. These findings have important implications for our understanding of electoral accountability and political representation in coalition governments.
03 技术风险与政策偏好
【题目】
Technological Risk and Policy Preferences
【作者】
Aina Gallego, Alexander Kuo, Dulce Manzano, and Jose Fernandez-Albertos
【摘要】
尽管最近人们关注自动化和技术变革对工人的经济和政治影响，但我们缺乏关于这种结构性变化的关注和政策偏好的数据。本文提出了关于自动化风险、对技术的主观关注和政策偏好之间关系的假设。作者区分了对补偿性政策的偏好和防止此类技术变革的“保护主义”政策。作者利用捕捉自动化风险的多种措施的西班牙的原始调查数据发现，大多数员工认为新技术对工作场所的影响是积极的，但也有少数人对此感到担忧。技术关注度随着客观脆弱性而异，因为技术迁移风险较高的工人更有可能对技术持否定态度。相关分析和实验分析都表明，没有什么证据证明处于风险中或关注技术的工人更有可能要求赔偿。相反，担心技术被替代的工人更喜欢减缓技术变革的政策。
Despite recent attention to the economic and political consequences of automation and technological change for workers, we lack data about concerns and policy preferences about this structural change. We present hypotheses about the relationships among automation risk, subjective concerns about technology, and policy preferences. We distinguish between preferences for compensatory policies versus “protectionist” policies to prevent such technological change. Using original survey data from Spain that captures multiple measures of automation risk, we find that most workers believe that the impact of new technologies in the workplace is positive, but there is a concerned minority. Technological concern varies with objective vulnerability, as workers at higher risk of technological displacement are more likely to negatively view technology. Both correlational and experimental analyses indicate little evidence that workers at risk or technologically concerned are more likely to demand compensation. Instead, workers concerned about technological displacement prefer policies to slow down technological change.
04 对民主的满足感：当人民政府将选举中的输家和赢家聚集在一起时
【题目】
Satisfaction With Democracy: When Government by the People Brings Electoral Losers and Winners Together
【作者】
Lucas Leemann and Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen
【摘要】
在过去的十年里，民粹主义政党和一些质疑自由民主的行为体纷纷崛起。许多解释都趋于依靠不满的公民。作者在这篇文章中问道，允许公民参与决策的机构是否以及如何影响不同代议制背景下以及选举赢家和输家之间的民主满意度差异。为此，作者首先制定了一项衡量次国家直接民主的指标，然后将其与广泛的调查数据结合起来，探究直接民主与公民对其民主制度的评价之间的关系。作者得出的结论是，直接民主通常与那些对此更满意的人无关，而是缩小了选举赢家和输家之间的“满意度差距”。与以往的研究相比，作者证明了这种机制适用于不同的代议制。
The last decade has witnessed the rise of populist parties and a number of actors that question liberal democracy. Many explanations of this rely on dissatisfied citizens. We ask in this article whether and how institutions allowing citizens to participate in policy-making affect differences in democratic satisfaction within varying representative contexts as well as between electoral winners and losers. To do so, we first develop a measure of sub-national direct democracy and then use it together with extensive survey data to investigate how direct democracy is associated with citizens’ evaluation of their democratic system. We conclude that direct democracy is not generally related to more satisfied people but rather closes the “satisfaction-gap” between electoral winners and losers. In contrast to previous research, we demonstrate that this mechanism holds across different representative systems.
05 保守主义能让女性更容易遭受暴力吗？
【题目】
Can Conservatism Make Women More Vulnerable to Violence?
【作者】
Victor Araujo´ and Malu A. C. Gatto
【摘要】
全世界至少35%的妇女受到暴力侵害。打击暴力侵害妇女行为的必要性似乎没有争议：现有研究表明，意识形态并不能解释政府接受反暴力立法的倾向性。然而，有效实施反暴力侵害妇女法律需要复杂的政策框架，与保守的价值观相悖。选民的偏好可以有意义地影响政策产出，那么选举的保守主义是否会使妇女更容易受到暴力侵害？作者利用5570个巴西城市的数据发现，选民中的保守主义与较少采取反暴力侵害妇女政策有关。根据对巴西受访者进行的全国代表性调查（N=2086）的数据，（政治学人平台编译）作者发现保守派选民优先考虑解决暴力侵害妇女问题的需要的可能性很小。也就是说，保守派市政当局较少采取反暴力侵害妇女的政策反映了保守派选民的政策偏好。重要的是，作者的结果表明，在选民持有保守偏好的情况下，政策响应性可能会给妇女的生活带来代价。
Violence against women (VAW) affects at least 35% of women worldwide. The need to combat VAW is seemingly noncontroversial: As existing work shows, ideology does not explain governments’ propensity to adopt antiVAW legislation. Yet, effectively implementing anti-VAW legislation requires complex policy frameworks at odds with conservative values. Voters’ preferences can meaningfully influence policy outputs, so can electoral conservatism make women more vulnerable to violence? Employing data from 5570 Brazilian municipalities, we find that conservatism in the electorate is associated with the adoption of fewer anti-VAW policies. With data from a nationally representative survey of Brazilian respondents (N = 2086), we then show that conservative voters are less likely to prioritize the need for tackling VAW. That is, the adoption of fewer anti-VAW policies in conservative municipalities reflects conservative voters’ policy preferences. Critically, our results suggest that in contexts where the electorate holds conservative preferences, policy responsiveness may incur costs to women’s lives.
06 移民出身的候选人是否因群体内的偏袒或群体外的敌意而受到惩罚？
【题目】
Are Immigrant-Origin Candidates Penalized Due to Ingroup Favoritism or Outgroup Hostility?
【作者】
Lea Portmann and Nenad Stojanovic
【摘要】
对于少数族裔在选举产生的职位上政治代表性持续不足的一个有影响力的解释是，少数族裔候选人会受到主导族裔选民的歧视。然而，作者认为有必要区分两种形式的歧视：内群体偏好和外群体贬损。作者通过使用从瑞士选举中提取的大量数据集来衡量这两种形式的影响。在瑞士选举中，选民可以对候选人投正面和负面的票。作者的研究结果表明，移民出身的使用非瑞士名字的候选人在选举中处于劣势，因为他们比使用瑞士名字的候选人获得更多的负面票。但作者也发现，少数族裔候选人面临第二个劣势：选民通过给多数族裔候选人投更多正面票来歧视他们。这两种形式的选举歧视与候选人所在的政党密切相关，其对少数族裔候选人所属的特定外围群体的影响没有预期的那么明显。
An influential explanation for the persistent political underrepresentation of minorities in elected office is that minority candidates are discriminated against by voters of the dominant ethnic group. We argue, however, for the need to distinguish between two forms of discrimination: ingroup favoritism and outgroup hostility. We measure the impact of each by using an extensive data set drawn from Swiss elections, where voters can cast both positive and negative preference votes for candidates. Our results show that immigrantorigin candidates with non-Swiss names incur an electoral disadvantage because they receive more negative preference votes than candidates with typically Swiss names. But we also find that minority candidates face a second disadvantage: voters discriminate in favor of majority candidates by allocating them more positive preference votes. These two forms of electoral discrimination are critically related to a candidate’s party, whereas the impact of the specific outgroup to which a minority candidate belongs is less pronounced than expected.
Volume 55, Issue 2, 2022
01 经济困境和对激进右翼政党的支持：来自瑞典的证据
【题目】
Economic Distress and Support for Radical Right Parties—Evidence From Sweden
【作者】
Sirus H. Dehdari
【摘要】
本文研究了经济困境对激进右翼政党的支持的影响。作者利用瑞典的选举数据发现，在低技能的本土工人中，一次裁员通知平均会使瑞典的激进右翼政党瑞典民主党的支持率增加0.17-0.45票。在低技术移民比例较高的地区和高技术移民比例较低的地区，裁员通知和对瑞典民主党的支持之间的关系更为密切。这些发现与一些理论的观点一致，即经济困难的选民会反对移民，因为他们担心劳动力市场的竞争加剧。此外，作者利用个人层面的调查数据证明（政治学人平台编译），在低技能的受访者中，自我报告的失业风险与对瑞典民主党的投票呈正相关，而高技术的受访者的情况则相反，这与总体层面的调查结果相呼应。
This paper studies the effects of economic distress on support for radical right parties. Using Swedish election data, I show that one layoff notice among lowskilled native-born workers increases, on average, support for the Swedish radical right party the Sweden Democrats by 0.17–0.45 votes. The relationship between layoff notices and support for the Sweden Democrats is stronger in areas with a high share of low-skilled immigrants and in areas with a low share of high-skilled immigrants. These findings are in line with theories suggesting that economically distressed voters oppose immigration as they fear increased labor market competition. In addition, I use individual-level survey data to show that self-reported unemployment risk is positively associated with voting for the Sweden Democrats among low-skilled respondents while the opposite is true for high-skilled respondents, echoing the aggregate-level findings.
02 关注金钱：智利的性别、在职和竞选资金
【题目】
Follow the Money: Gender, Incumbency, and Campaign Funding in Chile
【作者】
Jennifer M. Piscopo, Magda Hinojosa, Gwynn Thomas and Peter M. Siavelis
【摘要】
作者使用来自智利2017年立法选举所有960名候选人的数据，研究了女性获得竞选资源的情况。即使考虑到地区特征，女性候选人在政党转账、银行贷款和捐款中获得的资金也较少；在竞选中投入的个人资金也较少；而且总体上资源更少。然而，以前的经验和现任职位缩小了差距。当女性是新人时，性别是候选人素质的一个重要线索，资助者默认会偏向男性。作者的研究结果证实了实践者的说法，即资金对民主国家的女性候选人不利，但关注的是新女性候选者面临的不利条件。此外，尽管签署了一项性别化的选举融资计划，（政治学人平台编译）旨在使政治行为者更有可能投资于女性竞选活动，但竞选资金中的性别差距依然存在。虽然在发展专家中越来越受欢迎，但作者的研究表明，这些计划可能不足以实现男女竞选资金的平等。
We examine women’s access to campaign resources using data from all 960 candidates competing in Chile’s 2017 legislative elections. Even when controlling for district characteristics, women candidates receive less money in party transfers, bank loans, and donations; place fewer personal funds in their campaigns; and have fewer resources overall. However, previous experience and incumbency narrow the gap. When women are newcomers, gender serves as an important cue about candidate quality and funders default to favoring men. Our results lend credence to practitioners’ claims that money disadvantages women candidates in democracies, but focuses attention on the disadvantage faced by women newcomers. Moreover, this gender gap in campaign funding exists despite a gendered electoral financing scheme designed to make political actors more likely to invest in women’s campaigns. While increasingly popular among development experts, our research suggests such schemes might be insufficient for equalizing campaign funding between men and women.
03 议会制民主国家中的部长自主权、议会监督和政府改革成果
【题目】
Ministerial Autonomy, Parliamentary Scrutiny and Government Reform Output in Parliamentary Democracies
【作者】
Hanna Back , Wolfgang C. Müller, Mariyana Angelova, and Daniel Strobl
【摘要】
组建政府时，联盟伙伴做出的最重要的决定之一是各部门划分。部长级职务为执政党提供了相当大的信息和议程设置优势，政党可以利用这些优势根据自己的偏好制定政策。议会中的监督机制在减轻部长的政策自由裁量权方面发挥着核心作用，即使权力已经委任给个别部长，也能使联盟伙伴能够相互控制。然而，我们对这些机制如何影响部长们的议程设置和把关权力，以及部长党派在不同制度环境下相对于整个政府对政策产出的影响程度知之甚少。作者通过分析20年来9个西欧国家采取的2000多项重要的社会和经济政策改革措施的原始数据来填补这一空白，这些数据基于对《经济学人》智库和经济合作与发展组织（OECD）发布的1200多份国家报告的编码。作者发现，拥有强大监督权的议会限制了部长党派的议程制定能力，但对其把关能力的影响有限。这些发现对作者理解政策制定和民主问责具有重要意义。
One of the most important decisions coalition partners make when forming a government is the division of ministries. Ministerial portfolios provide the party in charge with considerable informational and agenda-setting advantages, which parties can use to shape policies according to their preferences. Oversight mechanisms in parliaments play a central role in mitigating ministerial policy discretion, allowing coalition partners to control each other even though power has been delegated to individual ministers. However, we know relatively little about how such mechanisms influence the agenda-setting and gatekeeping powers of ministers and how much influence minister parties have on policy output relative to the government as a whole in different institutional settings. We fill this gap by analyzing original data on over 2000 important social and economic policy reform measures adopted in nine Western European countries over 20 years, based on a coding of more than 1200 country reports issued by the Economist Intelligence Unit and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We find that parliaments with strong oversight powers constrain the agenda-setting capacity of minister parties but have limited impact on their gatekeeping capacity. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of policy-making and democratic accountability.
04 移民出身的候选人是否因群体内的偏袒或群体外的敌意而受到惩罚？
【题目】
Party Competition and Cooperation Shape Affective Polarization: Evidence from Natural and Survey Experiments in Israel
【作者】
Lotem Bassan-Nygate and Chagai M. Weiss
【摘要】
选举竞争是否会增加情感上的两极分化？党际合作能否使选民去极端化？解决这些问题具有挑战性，因为竞争和合作都是政治态度的内生因素。在社会认同理论的基础上，通过对7项以色列选举研究的自然实验，作者证明了选举竞争显著性的增强增加了情感两极分化。随后，作者考虑党际合作是否能使选民去极化。为此，作者进一步以联盟矛盾心理和政党品牌理论为基础，利用以色列第22届议会选举后联盟建设的模糊性，实施一项调查实验。在该实验中，作者可信地塑造了受访者对联合政府组建可能性的看法。作者发现，以团结政府的形式激发政党合作，可以促进跨党派的宽容。作者的研究通过在一个比较的背景下确定情感极化的制度原因和补救措施，为情感极化文献做出了贡献。
Does electoral competition increase affective polarization? Can inter-party cooperation depolarize voters? Addressing these questions is challenging since both competition and cooperation are endogenous to political attitudes. Building on social identity theory and leveraging a natural experiment unfolding over seven Israeli election studies, we demonstrate that the enhanced salience of electoral competition increases affective polarization. We then consider whether inter-party cooperation can depolarize the electorate. To do so, we further build on theories of coalition ambivalence and party brands and leverage the ambiguity around coalition building following elections of Israel’s 22nd Knesset, to implement a survey experiment where we credibly shape respondents’ perceptions regarding the likelihood that a unity government will form. We find that priming party cooperation in the form of a unity government promotes tolerance across partisan lines. Our studies contribute to the affective polarization literature by identifying institutional causes and remedies of polarization in a comparative context.
翻 译：石寒冰、孙 滢
校 对：石寒冰、孙 滢
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：李璐雅
二审：焦 磊
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