国际顶刊 | 《美国政治科学评论》第21卷（2022年）第2期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了American Political Science Review（APSR，《美国政治科学评论》）2022年第21卷第2期编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
American Political Science Review（APSR，《美国政治科学评论》）是美国政治学会旗下最知名的期刊，创刊于1906年并由剑桥大学出版社出版，是政治学最早和最具权威的学术期刊。提供同行评审的文章和评论整个学科子领域的论文。期刊涉及领域包括：政治理论、美国政治、公共政策、公共行政、比较政治和国际关系等。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=8.048，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第4（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Punishment and Politicization in the International Human Rights Regime
国际人权制度中的惩罚与政治化
Land, Opportunism, and Displacement in Civil Wars: Evidence from Colombia
内战中的土地、机会主义和流离失所：来自哥伦比亚的证据
Sovereignty, Substance, and Public Support for European Courts’ Human Rights Rulings
欧洲法院人权裁决的主权、实质和公众支持
The Ethics of Global Capital Mobility
全球资本流动的伦理问题
The Economic Consequences of Banking Crises--The Role of Central Banks and Optimal Independence
银行危机的经济后果——中央银行的作用及其独立性的最佳程度
Violence in the American Imaginary: Gender, Race, and the Politics of Superheroes
美国想象中的暴力：性别、种族与“超级英雄”政治
This One’s for the Boys: How Gendered Political Socialization Limits Girls’ Political Ambition and Interest
男孩专属——性别化的政治社会化如何限制女孩的政治野心与政治兴趣
Payments and Penalties for Democracy: Gendered Electoral Financing in Action Worldwide
民主的支付和惩罚：全球行动中的性别选举融资
Under the Microscope: Gender and Accountability in the US Congress
显微镜下：美国国会中的性别与责任制
Starting with People Where They Are: Ella Baker’s Theory of Political Organizing
从群众所在开始：艾拉·贝克的政治组织理论
From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the Philippines
从承认到融合：菲律宾的土著自治、国家权力和民族认同
Does State Repression Spark Protests? Evidence from Secret Police Surveillance in Communist Poland
国家镇压会引发抗议吗？来自共产主义波兰的秘密警察监视的证据
Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea
作为声誉级联的威权集会？克里米亚事件后普京人气飙升的证据
The Long-Term Effects of Oppression: Prussia, Political Catholicism, and the Alternative für Deutschland
压迫的长期影响——普鲁士、政治天主教与德国选择党
Benevolent Policies: Bureaucratic Politics and the International Dimensions of Social Policy Expansion
仁慈的政策：官僚政治和社会政策扩张的国际维度
Midcentury Modern: The Emergence of Stakeholders in Democratic Practice
世纪中期现代主义：民主实践中利益相关者的兴起
Senators at Home: Local Attentiveness and Policy Representation in Congress
家乡的参议员：国会的地方关注和政策代表
How Do Electoral Incentives Affect Legislator Behavior? Evidence from U.S. State Legislatures
选举激励如何影响立法者的行为？来自美国州立法机构的证据
Do Policy Makers Listen to Experts? Evidence from a National Survey of Local and State Policy Makers
政策制定者是否听从专家的意见？来自全国地方和州决策者调查的证据
Representative Democracy and Social Equality
代议制民主与社会平等
The Effect of Television Advertising in United States Elections
美国选举中电视广告的影响
The Influence of Unknown Media on Public Opinion: Evidence from Local and Foreign News Sources
陌生媒体对舆论的影响——来自本地和外国新闻媒体的证据
Ambiguous Platforms and Correlated Preferences: Experimental Evidence
模棱两可的平台和相关偏好：实验证据
Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability
动机性推理和民主问责制
PART 3
精选译文
01 国际人权制度中的惩罚与政治化
【题目】
Punishment and Politicization in the International Human Rights Regime
【作者】
Rochelle Terman, Joshua Byun
【摘要】
传统观点认为国际人权制度中的政治化行为是一成不变的：对于任何特定的违规行为，国家都会谴责对手，同时宽容盟友。然而，本文发现政治化模式在人权问题上存在显着差异。一些规范比其他规范更加政治化，同时，国家更有可能因某些违规行为惩罚地缘政治伙伴。我们提供了一种新的政治化执法理论，其中国家根据其对目标国家的感知“敏感性”来区别性地惩罚侵犯人权的行为。我们利用联合国国别人权审查（一个精心设计的人权机制）的数据表明，各国倾向于在敏感问题（即旨在损害目标政权的权力和合法性的问题）上批评对手，同时与盟友讨论更安全的话题。通过揭示人权执法的战略逻辑，本研究为全球治理领域中规范与强权政治之间的关系提供了新的理论见解。
Conventional wisdom treats politicization in the international human rights regime as invariant: for any given violation, states condemn adversaries while coddling friends. However, we find that politicization patterns vary markedly across human rights issues. Some norms are more politicized than others, and states are more likely to punish geopolitical partners on certain violations. We offer a novel theory of politicized enforcement wherein states punish human rights violations discriminatively based on their perceived “sensitivity” for the target state. Using data from the UN Universal Periodic Review, an elaborate human rights mechanism, we show that states tend to criticize their adversaries on sensitive issues that undermine the target regime’s power and legitimacy while addressing safer topics with friends. By uncovering a strategic logic of human rights enforcement, this research contributes new theoretical insights on the relationship between norms and power politics in global governance.
02 内战中的土地、机会主义和流离失所：来自哥伦比亚的证据
【题目】
Land, Opportunism, and Displacement in Civil Wars: Evidence from Colombia
【作者】
Juan Fernando Tellez
【摘要】
战斗人员故意强迫平民逃离家园的情况屡见不鲜，给全球数百万人造成无法估量的损失。现有的说法表明，战斗人员对那些让他们怀疑忠于对手的平民流离失所。暴力的动机也经常是由当地人利用战争来追求与战时忠诚无关的私人利益。然而，在流离失所方面，几乎没有关于这些动态变化的证据。通过借鉴机会主义暴力理论，我检验了一个说法，即对土地的需求激增为精英阶层掠夺农民的土地提供了动力。结合来自哥伦比亚武装冲突的新市政和调查数据，我发现证据表明，土地密集型产业——非洲棕榈油的扩张引发了精英和准军事盟友的机会主义流离失所。这些结果证明了精英们如何利用战争来从事私人积累，并对过渡时期的司法政策产生了影响。
It is common for combatants to deliberately force civilians to flee their homes, resulting in incalculable loss for millions around the world. Existing accounts suggest combatants displace civilians whom they suspect are loyal to their opponents. And yet violence is also frequently motivated by local actors taking advantage of war to pursue private interests unrelated to wartime loyalties. However, little evidence exists of these dynamics with respect to displacement. Drawing on theories of opportunistic violence, I test an account in which surges in demand for land create incentives for elites to prey on peasants for their land. Combining new municipal and survey data from the Colombian armed conflict, I find evidence that the expansion of a land-intensive industry—African palm oil—precipitated opportunistic displacement by elites and paramilitary allies. The results demonstrate how elites can take advantage of war to engage in private accumulation and have implications for transitional justice policy.
03 欧洲法院人权裁决的主权、实质和公众支持
【题目】
Sovereignty, Substance, and Public Support for European Courts’ Human Rights Rulings
【作者】
Mikael Rask Madsen, Juan A. Mayoral, Anton Strezhnev, Erik Voeten
【摘要】
公众对欧洲法院人权裁决的强烈反对是出于对案件结果的实质性担忧、对主权的程序性担忧、还是两者兼而有之？本文在丹麦、法国、波兰、西班牙和英国使用三个案例进行了预注册调查实验：一位面临引渡的外国人，一位因焚烧古兰经而被罚款的人，以及一位反对驱逐的业主。每个案例就欧洲法院是否与国家法院持不同意见（顺从干预）及申请人是否赢得案件（结果干预）方面各不相同。本文发现，几乎没有证据认为顺从可以推动执行判决或接受法院权威的意愿，但有充分证据表明案件结果可以起到关键性作用。即便是民族主义者和威权主义者，只要同意案件的结果，则不会为欧洲法院的判决所动摇。本文结果暗示民族主义者对欧洲法院的反对意见更多地是源于案件实质内容而非权力的归属；同样，对国家与国际法院的反对意见亦可能出自类似原因。
Is the public backlash against human rights rulings from European courts driven by substantive concerns over case outcomes, procedural concerns over sovereignty, or combinations thereof? We conducted preregistered survey experiments in Denmark, France, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom using three vignettes: a foreigner who faces extradition, a person fighting a fine for burning Qurans, and a home owner contesting eviction. Each vignette varies with respect to whether a European court disagrees with a national court (deference treatment) and whether an applicant wins a case (outcome treatment). We find little evidence that deference moves willingness to implement judgments or acceptance of court authority but ample evidence that case outcomes matter. Even nationalists and authoritarians are unmoved by European court decisions as long as they agree with the case outcome. These findings imply that nationalist opposition to European courts is more about content than the location of authority and that backlash to domestic and international courts may be driven by similar forces.
04 全球资本流动的伦理问题
【题目】
The Ethics of Global Capital Mobility
【作者】
Chiara Cordelli and Jonathan Levy
【摘要】
全球资本流动是经济、政治和社会生活的一个重要决定因素。虽然现有文献对人类流动的伦理已有丰富的研究，但政治理论对资本流动的伦理讨论仍然不足。本文旨在对全球资本流动的伦理进行概括性的说明，即明确值得保护和值得限制的流动形式。通过将规范性理论与全球投资的经济分析相结合，本文认为，除了重要的例外情况，资本的流动应比现在受到更多的限制。本文从全球正义和国际援助的角度出发，提出了对资本的跨境流入和流出实施强制性限制的理由。为了实现这些限制，作者还提议以使用一种新的国际货币对国际货币体系进行彻底的改革，同时该项改革可以促进有益的资本流动。
Global capital mobility is a crucial determinant of economic, political, and social life. While much has been written about the ethics of human movement, political theory has remained nearly silent on the ethics of capital movement. In this article, we intend to develop a general account of the ethics of global capital mobility—identifying both the forms of mobility that merit protection and those that merit restriction. By integrating normative theorizing with an economic analysis of global investment, we argue that the movement of capital, with important exceptions, should be much more restricted than it is today. We make the case, on both grounds of global justice and international assistance, for imposing coercive limits on cross-border inflows and outflows of capital. To enable them, we also propose a radical reform of the international monetary system—a new global currency—that would simultaneously facilitate beneficial capital movements.
05 银行危机的经济后果——中央银行的作用及其独立性的最佳程度
【题目】
The Economic Consequences of Banking Crises--The Role of Central Banks and Optimal Independence
【作者】
Daniel Hansen
【摘要】
大量的文献证明了中央银行独立性的优点，但针对其产生的负面经济后果则少有讨论。虽然货币理论普遍认为中央银行应加强对经济困境的管理，但作者认为独立的中央银行因仅关注通货膨胀，而对银行业的不稳定性反应疲软。本文发现，当中央银行的独立性较高时，银行危机将会产生更大程度的失业冲击与信贷及股票市场紧缩。当中央银行采取措施时，如果不以通货膨胀为主要政策任务，此类经济成本会得到降低。在银行危机期间，业务和政治独立性较高的银行若不严格地采取优先考虑通货膨胀的措施，则管理效果更优。此外，上述措施并不会带来更严重的通货膨胀，这意味着在不产生重大成本的情况下，中央银行设计可以更加灵活。
A large literature establishes the benefits of central bank independence, yet very few have shown directly negative economic consequences. Furthermore, while prevailing monetary theory suggests CBI should enhance management of economic distress, I argue that independent central banks exhibit tepid responsiveness to banking instability due to a myopic focus on inflation. I show that banking crises produce larger unemployment shocks and credit and stock market contractions when the level of central bank independence is high. Further, I show that these significant economic costs are mitigated when central banks do not have the inflation-centric policy mandates predominantly considered necessary. When the bank has high operational and political independence, banks’ whose policy mandate does not rigidly prioritize inflation produce significantly better outcomes during banking crises. At the same time, I show that this configuration does not produce higher inflation, suggesting it achieves a more flexible design without incurring significant costs.
06 美国想象中的暴力：性别、种族与“超级英雄”政治
【题目】
Violence in the American Imaginary: Gender, Race, and the Politics of Superheroes
【作者】
Menaka Philips
【摘要】
作为美国想象中的重要标志，“超级英雄”对暴力政治有何传播作用？在回应2020年美国范围内对警察暴行的抗议时，执法人员采用了“惩罚者”（一非常暴力的治安维护者虚构角色）骷髅头标志。作者认为此举标志着暴力特权，即个人可以根据有关性别和种族的规范性期望而进行武力部署。通过比较包括《惩罚者》系列的漫威-网飞作品，本文列举三种暴力运作模式：一、白人男性治安维护者不受限制的愤怒，二、女权主义英雄的脆弱，三、黑人男性英雄的牺牲品品式控制。本文展示了性别和种族化的条件下被美国观众视为合理的英雄暴力。最后，作者认为《惩罚者》所展现的不受限制暴力使白人男性的不满情绪得到了重视，而这正是美国国家武装人员的吸引力所在。
What does the superhero—an icon of the American imaginary—communicate about the politics of violence? Responding to nationwide protests of police brutality in 2020, law enforcement officers adopted the skull logo of The Punisher, an exceptionally violent fictional vigilante. That adoption signals what I call the privilege of violence: the force individuals may deploy based on normative expectations concerning gender and race. Comparing Marvel-Netflix productions including The Punisher series, I identify three modes of violence in operation: the unrestricted rage of a white male vigilante, the vulnerability of a feminist heroine, and the sacrificial control of a Black male hero. The article demonstrates the gendered and racialized conditions under which heroic violence is rendered legitimate to American audiences. As I conclude, Punisher’s unrestricted violence valorizes white male grievance, and this is precisely what appeals to armed agents of the American state.
07 男孩专属——性别化的政治社会化如何限制女孩的政治野心与政治兴趣
【题目】
This One’s for the Boys: How Gendered Political Socialization Limits Girls’ Political Ambition and Interest
【作者】
Angela L. Bos, Jull S. Greenlee, Mirya R. Holman, Zoe M. Oxley, and J. Celeste Lay
【摘要】
本文提出并验证了一个新的理论框架，即“性别化的政治社会化”，并研究儿童对政治中性别的认知、及性别差异认知对政治兴趣及政治抱负的影响提供了重要见解。基于生活在美国四个不同地区的1,604名儿童的数据，本文发现不仅儿童认为政治是一个男性主导的空间，而且随着年龄的增长，女童愈发将政治领袖视为 “男人的世界”。与此同时，随着年龄的增长，儿童逐渐内化性别化的期待，并基于此将兴趣调整至符合自我性别及性别特征的职业。相对男孩，女孩对政治的兴趣和野心较低的现象是在政坛中女性存在失衡的后果之一。
This article develops and tests a new theoretical framework, gendered political socialization, which offers important insights into how children perceive gender in politics and the consequences of these perceptions on sex differences in political interest and ambition. Based on data from 1,604 children who live in four different regions across the United States, we find that children not only perceive politics to be a male-dominated space, but with age, girls increasingly see political leadership as a “man’s world.” Simultaneously, as children grow older, they internalize gendered expectations, which direct their interests toward professions that embody the gendered traits that fit with their own sex. One result of this mismatch between women and politics is that girls express lower levels of interest and ambition in politics than do boys.
08 民主的支付和惩罚：全球行动中的性别选举融资
【题目】
Payments and Penalties for Democracy: Gendered Electoral Financing in Action Worldwide
【作者】
Ragnhild Muriaas, Amy G. Mazur, Season Hoard
【摘要】
本文研究了性别选举筹资 (Gendered Electoral Financing, GEF) 与全球民主选举中其他关键因素之间的相互作用，以确定这些未被充分研究的机制是否、如何以及为何有助于在国家议会中实现性别平衡。结合定性比较分析和极简因果机制案例研究，通过序列混合方法，本文研究了17 个国家中的 31 次选举中的性别选举筹资。本文发现，当性别选举筹资与若干条件相结合时，可以实现更为优化的性别平衡，例如为政党的守门人及符合条件的女性以奖金或罚款的方式提供急需的财务激励，从而改变他们的行为。在自上而下的性别选举筹资实施的成功案例中，性别配额与比例代表选举制或者本研究所特定的至少 15% 的女性议员比例相结合。而自下而上进行的性别选举筹资活动的成功却往往出乎意料，机理复杂，而且没有性别配额限制。本文最后讨论了研究议程、政策建议以及对追求民主质量的影响。
This article examines the interplay between gendered electoral financing (GEF) and other crucial factors in democratic elections worldwide to determine whether, how, and why these understudied mechanisms help achieve gender balance in national parliaments. Integrating qualitative comparative analysis and minimalist causal mechanism case studies, the sequential mixed methods study of GEF implementation in 31 elections in 17 countries shows that enhanced gender balance is achieved when GEF is combined with several conditions, providing a much-needed financial incentive—payments and penalties—for party gatekeepers and eligible women to change their behavior. In successful cases of top-down GEF implementation, gender quotas combine with a PR electoral system or a 15% minimum of women MPs, a measure developed for this study. Success in bottom-up GEF implementation is unexpected and complex and occurs without a quota. The article ends with a discussion of the research agenda, policy recommendations, and implications for the pursuit of democratic quality.
09 显微镜下：美国国会中的性别与责任制
【题目】
Under the Microscope: Gender and Accountability in the US Congress
【作者】
Jaclyn Kaslovsky, Jon C. Rogowski
【摘要】
本文旨在研究官员性别如何影响问责问题，及选民是否在政策记录的基础上对女性和男性议员进行不同的评价。2008年至2018年的数据显示，在美国众议院选举中，相比男性议员，选民对女性议员的支持率和投票选择更能反应其政策记录。然而，上述模式的证据主要集中在有政治意识的选民中，并且作者没有发现任何证据可以表明女性或男性选民因性别刻板印象而导致该性别不平衡的结果。另外，本文分析表明，虽然当选民发现议员政策不一致时，选民对女性和男性议员的“惩罚”相似，但因为女性议员更常听取选民意见，女性议员从选民处得到的“红利”的多于男性。结果表明，在不同的议员性别中，问责标准不同。因此，本文认为政策代表性程度与美国官员的性别构成之间存在一定的联系。
We study how officeholder gender affects issue accountability and examine whether constituents evaluate women and men legislators differently on the basis of their policy records. Data from 2008 through 2018 show that constituents’ approval ratings and vote choices in US House elections are more responsive to the policy records of women legislators than of men legislators. These patterns are concentrated among politically aware constituents, but we find no evidence that the results are driven disproportionately by either women or men constituents or by issues that are gendered in stereotypical ways. Additional analyses suggest that while constituents penalize women and men legislators at similar rates for policy incongruence, women legislators are rewarded more than men as they are increasingly aligned with their constituents. Our results show that accountability standards are applied differently across legislator gender and suggest a link between the quality of policy representation and the gender composition of American legislatures.
10 从群众所在开始：艾拉·贝克的政治组织理论
【题目】
Starting with People Where They Are: Ella Baker’s Theory of Political Organizing
【作者】
Mie Inouye
【摘要】
本文认为，艾拉·贝克（Ella Baker）的激进民主意识形态塑造了她的组织理论，包括她提出的群体行动理论和本土领导理论。相对于现实民主主义和激进民主主义理论中出现的共识，即贝克的实践和更广泛的民主组织都是非意识形态的，作者认为所有组织都是意识形态的。通过借鉴斯图尔特·霍尔（Stuart Hall）的学说，本文将意识形态理解为一个用于了解社会的动态框架而非是一套僵化的信仰。组织者根据自己的意识形态做出决定，并试图维持或重塑主导意识形态。从这个意义上说，组织者是政治理论家：他们有关于社会如何运作和变化的自觉理论，并以此为基础做出战略决策。作者展示了一种解释组织者政治理论的方法，并认为贝克的激进民主理论为推动民主化的实践和组织结构提供了民主理论洞察力。
This article argues that Ella Baker’s ideology of radical democracy shaped her theory of organizing, including her theories of mass action and indigenous leadership. Against the emerging consensus in realist and radical democratic theory that both Baker’s praxis and democratic organizing more broadly are non-ideological, I argue that all organizing is ideological if, with Stuart Hall, we understand ideology not as a rigid set of beliefs but as a dynamic framework for understanding society. Organizers make decisions based on their own ideologies and they attempt to maintain or reshape the dominant ideologies. In this sense, organizers are political theorists: they have self-conscious theories of how society works and changes based on which they make strategic decisions. I demonstrate a method for interpreting organizers’ political theories and argue that Baker’s theory of radical democracy offers democratic theory insight into the practices and organizational structures that advance democratization.
11 从承认到融合：菲律宾的土著自治、国家权力和民族认同
【题目】
From Recognition to Integration: Indigenous Autonomy, State Authority, and National Identity in the Philippines
【作者】
Nina Mcmurry
【摘要】
承认土著社区的集体自治权如何影响民族团结和国家巩固？近几十年来，许多州已经承认了这些权利，将对土地和地方治理的法律控制权移交给土著机构。国家建设文献中的突出观点表明，这些政策可能会通过以牺牲国家权威为代价来加强非国家当局和以牺牲国家认同为代价的地方认同来威胁国家整合。然而，很少有研究检验这些政策是否会产生批评者声称的后果。我利用向菲律宾土著社区授予公共土地所有权的时空变化来解决这一差距。使用双重差分法和面板设计，我发现承认既增加了土著的自我认同，也增加了对国家的遵从。一项原始调查实验的结果表明，承认集体自治权会增加对国家的认同。
How does the recognition of collective self-governance rights for indigenous communities affect national unity and state consolidation? In recent decades, many states have recognized such rights, devolving de jure control over land and local governance to indigenous institutions. Prominent perspectives in the state-building literature suggest that these policies are likely to threaten state consolidation by strengthening nonstate authorities at the expense of state authority and subnational identities at the expense of a national identity. Yet few studies have tested whether these policies have the consequences their critics claim. I address this gap, leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the granting of communal land titles to indigenous communities in the Philippines. Using difference-in-differences and panel designs, I find that titling increases both indigenous self-identification and compliance with the state. Results from an original survey experiment suggest that recognizing collective self-governance rights increases identification with the nation.
12 国家镇压会引发抗议吗？来自共产主义波兰的秘密警察监视的证据
【题目】
Does State Repression Spark Protests? Evidence from Secret Police Surveillance in Communist Poland
【作者】
Anselm Hager, Krzysztof Krakowski
【摘要】
物理监视是否会阻碍或促进反政权抵抗？一种普遍的观点认为，监视通过向政权提供有关持不同政见者网络的高质量情报以及向公民灌输恐惧来防止抵抗。我们使用来自共产主义波兰的前机密数据来对比这种观点。我们发现，接触秘密警察的社区更有可能组织抗议活动，但破坏活动也较少。为了确保这种关系是因果关系，我们使用了工具变量策略，该策略利用了天主教“间谍神父”对当地社区的外生分配。为了追踪潜在机制，我们利用定性访谈和档案来源。我们记录了波兰对监视的全面使用引起了广泛的愤怒，并激励了公民展示他们的真实忠诚，从而促进了反政权的集体行动。一旦走上街头，抗议者就不再进行破坏，以向旁观者和当局表明他们的政治动机。
Does physical surveillance hinder or foster antiregime resistance? A common view holds that surveillance prevents resistance by providing regimes with high-quality intelligence on dissident networks and by instilling fear in citizens. We contrast this view using formerly classified data from Communist Poland. We find that communities exposed to secret police officers were more likely to organize protests but also engaged in less sabotage. To ensure that the relationship is causal, we use an instrumental variable strategy, which exploits the exogenous assignment of Catholic “spy priests” to local communities. To trace the underlying mechanisms, we draw on qualitative interviews and archival sources. We document that Poland’s comprehensive use of surveillance created widespread anger as well as an incentive for citizens to reveal their true loyalties, thus facilitating antiregime collective action. Once on the streets, protesters refrained from sabotage to signal their political motivation to bystanders and authorities alike.
13 作为声誉级联的威权集会？克里米亚事件后普京人气飙升的证据
【题目】
Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea
【作者】
Henry E. Hale
【摘要】
当国际冲突导致专制领导人的声望飙升时，现有的理论使我们将这种“集会”视为真诚的偏好改变，是激增的爱国主义或怯懦的媒体的产物。本研究提出了一个更适合于非民主环境的不完全真诚的集会理论，将其描述为至少部分反映了由社会期望值驱动的级联掩饰。识别策略将罕见的具有全国代表性的跨越集会的固定样本调查与列表实验和计量经济学分析相结合。这表明，在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后支持普京的四分之三的人至少参与了某种形式的掩饰，这种集会是以快速的级联方式发展的，社交媒体和电视一起助长了这种社会理想的看法。
When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader’s popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such “rallying” as sincere preference change, the product of surging patriotism or cowed media. This study advances a theory of less-than-fully sincere rallying more appropriate for nondemocratic settings, characterizing it as at least partly reflecting cascading dissembling driven by social desirability concerns. The identification strategy combines a rare nationally representative rally-spanning panel survey with a list experiment and econometric analysis. This establishes that three quarters of those who rallied to Putin after Russia annexed Crimea were engaging in at least some form of dissembling and that this rallying developed as a rapid cascade, with social media joining television in fueling perceptions this was socially desirable.
14 压迫的长期影响——普鲁士、政治天主教与德国选择党
【题目】
The Long-Term Effects of Oppression: Prussia, Political Catholicism, and the Alternative für Deutschland
【作者】
Lukas Haffert
【摘要】
当代政治行为往往受到历史遗产的影响，但其具体传播机制却难以确定。本文认为，历史上的政治冲突触发持久的组织动员时，可以影响数代人的政治行为。本文研究了19世纪针对德国天主教徒的压迫是如何导致地区性的天主教政治动员及如何持续影响现代激进右翼德国选择党（Alternative für Deutschland, AfD）的支持。通过分析新收集的历史压迫事件的数据，本文表明，相对于受压迫较轻的天主教地区，受压迫较重的地区有更多的天主教非宗教组织动员且在当代对德国选择党（AfD）的支持率较低。本文对政治行为的历史决定因素的研究，以及对区域背景效应对激进右翼加强或削弱的问题做出了贡献。
Contemporary political behavior is often affected by historical legacies, but the specific mechanisms through which these legacies are transmitted are difficult to pin down. This paper argues that historical political conflicts can affect political behavior over several generations when they trigger an enduring organizational mobilization. It studies how the oppression of German Catholics in the nineteenth century led to a regionally differentiated mobilization of political Catholicism that still affects political support for the radical right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) today. Using newly collected data on historical oppression events, it shows that Catholic regions where oppression was intense saw greater mobilization of Catholic lay organizations than Catholic regions where oppression was milder and show lower support for the AfD today. The paper thus contributes to the literature on the historical determinants of political behavior as well as to the question of which regional context effects strengthen or weaken the radical right.
15 仁慈的政策：官僚政治和社会政策扩张的国际维度
【题目】
Benevolent Policies: Bureaucratic Politics and the International Dimensions of Social Policy Expansion
【作者】
Carmen Jacqueline Ho
【摘要】
福利国家的研究相当关注社会政策的扩展。然而，人们对政府为什么要扩大社会政策，为那些在低能见度问题上权力有限的群体服务却知之甚少。我把这些政策称为“仁慈的政策”。这类社会政策改善了民众的福祉，但对颁布这些政策的政府来说，产生的政治收益却微乎其微。如果改革的政治动机很弱，政府为什么要扩大仁慈政策？我通过关注政府对营养不良的反应来研究这个问题。根据9个月的实地调查，包括71次访谈，我认为政策扩张的根源可以在政府官僚机构中找到。具有技术专长的官僚——技术官僚可以发挥决定性的作用，通过施加国际压力来争取行政部门的支持并策划政策变化。他们的行动有助于解释印度尼西亚政府为何出乎意料地扩大营养政策——这些政策为低收入妇女和儿童服务，并解决微量元素营养不良的问题。
Research on the welfare state has devoted considerable attention to social policy expansion. However, little is known about why governments expand social policies serving groups with limited power on issues with low visibility. I call these “benevolent policies.” This class of social policies improves population well-being but produces minimal political gains for the governments enacting them. Why do governments expand benevolent policies if political incentives for reform are weak? I investigate this question by focusing on government responses to malnutrition. Drawing on nine months of fieldwork, including 71 interviews, I argue that the origins of policy expansion can be found in the government bureaucracy. Bureaucrats with technical expertise—technocrats—can play a defining role, deploying international pressure to court executive support and orchestrate policy change. Their actions help explain the Indonesian government’s unexpected expansion of nutrition policies, which serve low-income women and children and address micronutrient malnutrition.
16 世纪中期现代主义：民主实践中利益相关者的兴起
【题目】
Midcentury Modern: The Emergence of Stakeholders in Democratic Practice
【作者】
Kavi Joseph Abraham
【摘要】
自20世纪60年代以来，“利益相关者”或受影响方已成为一种新颖的民主主体，其在各种机构场所的参与（如大学、政府机构、公司董事会或国际组织）对于管理复杂问题来说是必要的。然而，仅有少数现有文献将利益相关者视为一个独特的政治主体并研究其对民主实践的影响。本文介绍了利益相关者的历史，记录了其在企业管理主义和美国公共行政中的表现，并展示了种族动员、快速的技术进步和系统思维的政治理性如何为其出现提供了可能的条件。尽管以利益相关者为导向的民主模式为参与政治生活提供了机会，但作者认为该模式是基于某种受限的参与政治形式。该形式侵蚀了追求共同利益的习惯、消除了个人和团体之间的区别，并放大了专业知识问题。
Since the 1960s, “the stakeholder,” or affected party, has emerged as a novel democratic subject whose participation in varied institutional sites—from universities to government agencies, corporate boardrooms to international organizations—is seen as necessary for the management of complex problems. However, few specifically attend to the stakeholder as a distinct political subject and consider its implications for democratic practice. This paper presents a genealogy of the stakeholder, documenting its appearance in corporate managerialism and US public administration and showing how racial mobilization, rapid technological progress, and the political rationality of systems thinking provided the conditions of possibility for its emergence. Though orienting democracy around stakeholders permits opportunities for participation in political life, I argue that this subject is predicated on a circumscribed form of participatory politics that erodes habits of discovering a common good, erases distinctions between individuals and corporate bodies, and amplifies the problem of expertise.
17 家乡的参议员：国会的地方关注和政策代表
【题目】
Senators at Home: Local Attentiveness and Policy Representation in Congress
【作者】
Jaclyn Kaslovsky
【摘要】
地方关注是否可以替代政策代表权？理查德·芬诺（Richard Fenno 1978）曾对立法者如何通过定期访问他们的选区和精心设计的沟通来发展与选民的个人联系作出经典描述。现有研究表明，在选举中，这种互动由于隔离了现任议员，从而减少了代表选民政策偏好的需求。令人惊讶的是，这一重要论点从未经过系统地验证。本文使用有关参议员旅行和人员配备行为的数据以及 2011-2018 年合作国会选举研究中的调查数据来研究这一说法。本文不仅表明具有重要竞选捐助者的地区更有可能获得资源外，还发现立法者回乡访问可能会降低在意识形态对立派选民中的认可度。此外，本文研究发现关于当地员工有效性的证据不一致。这些结果表明，对地方的关注并不总是有益于地方发展。在两极分化的政治背景下，“家乡风格”并不能有效地替代政策代表。
Is local attention a substitute for policy representation? Fenno (1978) famously described how legislators develop personal ties with their constituents through periodic visits to their districts and carefully crafted communications. Existing work suggests that such interactions insulate incumbents electorally, creating less need to represent constituents’ policy preferences. Surprisingly, this important argument has never been tested systematically. In this paper, I use data on senator travel and staffing behavior along with survey data from the 2011–2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to investigate this claim. In addition to showing that areas with important campaign donors are significantly more likely to receive resources, I find that local visits may decrease approval among ideologically opposed constituents. Furthermore, I find inconsistent evidence regarding the effectiveness of local staff. These results suggest that local attention does not always cultivate goodwill in the district. Under polarized politics, home style does not effectively substitute for policy representation.
18 选举激励如何影响立法者的行为？来自美国州立法机构的证据
【题目】
How Do Electoral Incentives Affect Legislator Behavior? Evidence from U.S. State Legislatures
【作者】
Alexander Fouirnaies, Andrew B. Hall
【摘要】
关于民主选举的一个经典问题是，民主选举能够在多大程度上影响政治家的行为，迫使他们预测未来的连任企图，特别是在选民没有密切关注和信息不畅的情况下。我们编译了一个新数据集，其中包含大约 780,000 项法案，以及超过 1600 万条唱名投票记录，这些记录由在美国有任期限制的州立法机构中任职的大约 6,000 名立法者提供。使用个人层面的双重差分设计，我们发现无法再寻求连任的立法者支持更少的法案，在委员会中的工作效率较低，并且平均缺席更多的投票。建立一个新的唱名投票和利益集团评级数据集，发现几乎没有证据表明不能竞选连任的立法者会系统地改变他们的意识形态平台。总而言之，即使在低显著性环境中，选举似乎也会影响立法者如何以重要的方式分配努力，但对意识形态定位的影响可能较小。
A classic question about democratic elections is how much they are able to influence politician behavior by forcing them to anticipate future reelection attempts, especially in contexts where voters are not paying close attention and are not well informed. We compile a new dataset containing roughly 780,000 bills, combined with more than 16 million roll-call voting records for roughly 6,000 legislators serving in U.S. state legislatures with term limits. Using an individual-level difference-in-differences design, we find that legislators who can no longer seek reelection sponsor fewer bills, are less productive on committees, and are absent for more floor votes, on average. Building a new dataset of roll-call votes and interest-group ratings, we find little evidence that legislators who cannot run for reelection systematically shift their ideological platforms. In sum, elections appear to influence how legislators allocate their effort in important ways even in low-salience environments but may have less influence on ideological positioning.
19 政策制定者是否听从专家的意见？来自全国地方和州决策者调查的证据
【题目】
Do Policy Makers Listen to Experts? Evidence from a National Survey of Local and State Policy Makers
【作者】
Nathan Lee
【摘要】
民选官员是否会根据专家意见更新其政策立场？大量有关政治行为的文献展示了个人在评估信息时可能表现出的一系列偏见。然而，当信息可能影响其选民的福利时，民选官员可能会被激励准确地整合信息。我通过对地方和州政策制定者的全国调查来研究这些相互竞争的预测，在调查中，我向受访者提供了关于三个地方政策辩论的既定专家结论，这些辩论关于共和党人或民主党人是否更有可能将调查结果视为确认性或具有挑战性的问题而有所不同。使用被试间设计和被试内设计，我发现政策制定者会根据证据的方向更新他们的信念和偏好，而不管信息的效价如何。这些发现对于将大众政治行为理论应用于政治家以及基于证据的政策制定的前景具有重要意义。
Do elected officials update their policy positions in response to expert evidence? A large literature in political behavior demonstrates a range of biases that individuals may manifest in evaluating information. However, elected officials may be motivated to accurately incorporate information when it could affect the welfare of their constituents. I investigate these competing predictions through a national survey of local and state policy makers in which I present respondents with established expert findings concerning three subnational policy debates, debates that vary as to whether Republicans or Democrats are more likely to see the findings as confirmatory or challenging. Using both cross-subject and within-subject designs, I find policy makers update their beliefs and preferences in the direction of the evidence irrespective of the valence of the information. These findings have implications for the application of mass political behavior theories to politicians as well as the prospects for evidence-based policy making.
20 代议制民主与社会平等
【题目】
Representative Democracy and Social Equality
【作者】
Sean Ingham
【摘要】
在什么样的情况下，政治权力的不平等是不民主的？尽管一些研究认为政治权力中的任何不平等都是对民主理想的背离，但这种观点很容易被驳倒：代议制民主国家将政治权力集中在民选官员手中，而不是在公民之间平等分配，但这并不因此削弱其民主性。基于近期将民主解释为更广泛的社会平等愿景的一部分的文献，作者认为政治权力的集中与民主不相容。当集中的政治权力允许某些人掌握更多的强权并能够根据自身特殊偏好做出决定时，权力集中更普遍地与对社会平等的承诺不相容。本文所提出的对权力和社会地位之间关系的一种新颖的解释阐明了社会平等在民主的正当性中的作用，包括公职人员比普通公民拥有更多政治权力的代议制民主。
When are inequalities in political power undemocratic, and why? While some writers condemn any inequalities in political power as a deviation from the ideal of democracy, this view is vulnerable to the simple objection that representative democracies concentrate political power in the hands of elected officials rather than distributing it equally among citizens, but they are no less democratic for it. Building on recent literature that interprets democracy as part of a broader vision of social equality, I argue that concentrations of political power are incompatible with democracy, and with a commitment to social equality more generally, when they consist in some having greater arbitrary power to influence decisions according to their idiosyncratic preferences. A novel account of the relationship between power and social status clarifies the role of social equality in the justification of democracy, including a representative democracy in which public officials have more political power than ordinary citizens.
21 美国选举中电视广告的影响
【题目】
The Effect of Television Advertising in United States Elections
【作者】
John Sides, Lynn Vavreck, Christopher Warshaw
【摘要】
本文对2000-2018年电视广告对美国选举结果的影响进行了全面评估。本文使用双重差分和边界断点实验设计方法对广告效果进行因果推断，在总统、参议院、众议院、州长、总检察长和州财政部长选举方面对既有文献进行补充。我们发现，电视广播竞选广告对于选票浮动有重要影响，但相比于总统选举，该影响在低位票中更为显著。本文通过多个选举周期的调查和选民登记数据表明广告效应的主要机制是“说服”，而非党派动员。本文结果对理解竞选和选举以及选民决策和信息处理的研究具有意义。
We provide a comprehensive assessment of the influence of television advertising on United States election outcomes from 2000–2018. We expand on previous research by including presidential, Senate, House, gubernatorial, Attorney General, and state Treasurer elections and using both difference-in-differences and border-discontinuity research designs to help identify the causal effect of advertising. We find that televised broadcast campaign advertising matters up and down the ballot, but it has much larger effects in down-ballot elections than in presidential elections. Using survey and voter registration data from multiple election cycles, we also show that the primary mechanism for ad effects is persuasion, not the mobilization of partisans. Our results have implications for the study of campaigns and elections as well as voter decision making and information processing.
22 陌生媒体对舆论的影响——来自本地和外国新闻媒体的证据
【题目】
The Influence of Unknown Media on Public Opinion: Evidence from Local and Foreign News Sources
【作者】
Erik Peterson and Maxwell B. Allamong
【摘要】
在互联网时代，公众有机会接触大量的政治新闻，但其中许多来自于人们不熟悉的媒体机构。因其易传播假消息或有鲜明倾向性的报道，此类不为人们所熟知的媒体机构值得研究关注。本文使用两项大型调查实验来检测消息来源的熟悉程度对政治传播产生的影响。本文表明，尽管公众对陌生来源的新闻存在一定抵触，在实际接触它们的情况下，不知名的本地及外国媒体却可以影响公众舆论，其对公众的影响程度与主流新闻机构对公众的影响程度相似。这种可比效果源于公众对不熟悉的新闻来源的可信度的的宽容及对熟悉的主流媒体的相对低信任。本文发现，公众对不熟悉的媒体机构的回避是限制其政治影响力的主要因素，而非对其内容的抵制。
In the Internet era, people can encounter a vast array of political news outlets, many with which they are unfamiliar. These unknown media outlets are notable because they represent potential sources of misinformation and coverage with a distinctive slant. We use two large survey experiments to consider how source familiarity influences political communication. Although this demonstrates the public is averse to consuming news from unfamiliar media, we show that—conditional on exposure to them—unknown local and foreign media sources can influence public opinion to an extent similar to established mainstream news outlets on the same issues. This comparable effectiveness stems from the public’s charitable evaluations of the credibility of unfamiliar news sources and their relatively low trust in familiar mainstream media. We find avoidance of unknown news outlets, not resistance to their coverage, is the primary factor limiting their political influence.
23 模棱两可的平台和相关偏好：实验证据
【题目】
Ambiguous Platforms and Correlated Preferences: Experimental Evidence
【作者】
Juha Tolvanen, James Tremewan, Alexander K. Wagner
【摘要】
本文从理论上和实验上研究了一个选举竞争模型，该模型允许候选人在当选后将执行何种政策的问题上含糊不清。我们认为，选民政策偏好的不确定性，再加上选民和候选人的感知相似性，会导致后者在这些模棱两可的平台上运行。通过吸引光谱两端的选民，这种纲领可以确保非中间派候选人在一个充分两极分化的社会中获得选举成功。模棱两可的平台对民主代表权构成了威胁，因为获胜的非中间派候选人总是执行有利于少数人的政策，而反对大多数人的偏好。在我们的实验室实验中，模棱两可的平台经常被候选人选择，并获得选民的显著支持。我们的主要处理变量提供了因果证据，即如果候选人之一是已知的中间派，模棱两可的平台在非中间派选民中更受欢迎。
This paper studies, theoretically and experimentally, a model of electoral competition that allows for platforms where candidates may be ambiguous about which policy they will implement if elected. We argue that uncertainty about the policy preferences of the electorate, combined with perceived similarity of voters and candidates, can lead to the latter running on these ambiguous platforms. By appealing to voters from both ends of the spectrum, such platforms can ensure electoral success for noncentrist candidates in a sufficiently polarized society. Ambiguous platforms pose a threat to democratic representation because winning noncentrists always implement policies in favor of a minority and against the preferences of the majority. In our laboratory experiment, ambiguous platforms are chosen frequently by candidates and gain notable support from voters. Our main treatment variation provides causal evidence that ambiguous platforms are more popular among noncentrist voters if one of the candidates is a known centrist.
24 动机性推理和民主问责制
【题目】
Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability
【作者】
Andrew T. Little, Keith E. Schnakenberg, Ian R. Turner
【摘要】
动机性推理会损害民主问责制吗？来自政治行为研究的大量证据表明，选民具有超出准确性的“定向动机”，这种现象通常被视为选民没有能力向政客问责的证据。本文提出一种将选民视为动机性推理者的选举问责制模型。定向动机有两种作用：（1）差异化，即具有不同偏好的选民持有不同的理念，（2）脱敏化，即弱化现任官员绩效与选民信念之间的关系。虽然动机性推理确确实对问责制造成危害，但这通常是由不敏感的选民推动的，而非持有不同政治理念的极化党派分子。另外，本文分析了政府绩效与投票份额之间的关系。本文认为，虽然动机性推理通常对该关系起到弱化作用，但并不能因此推断其会损害问责制。最后，研究表明本文的模型可以映射到基于贝叶斯且具有不同的偏好或信息的选民行为标准模型上。
Does motivated reasoning harm democratic accountability? Substantial evidence from political behavior research indicates that voters have “directional motives” beyond accuracy, which is often taken as evidence that they are ill equipped to hold politicians accountable. We develop a model of electoral accountability with voters as motivated reasoners. Directional motives have two effects: (1) divergence—voters with different preferences hold different beliefs, and (2) desensitization—the relationship between incumbent performance and voter beliefs is weakened. While motivated reasoning does harm accountability, this is generally driven by desensitized voters rather than polarized partisans with politically motivated divergent beliefs. We also analyze the relationship between government performance and vote shares, showing that while motivated reasoning always weakens this relationship, we cannot infer that accountability is also harmed. Finally, we show that our model can be mapped to standard models in which voters are fully Bayesian but have different preferences or information.
翻 译：欧阳博雅、陈宇洋、郝若雯
校 对：欧阳博雅、田舒宁、郝若雯
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：郭见田
二审：李璐雅