国际顶刊 |《美国政治科学杂志》第66卷（2022年）第2期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了American Journal of Political Science（AJPS, 《美国政治科学杂志》）2022年第66卷第2期摘要编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
American Journal of Political Science（AJPS, 《美国政治科学杂志》）致力于在公民身份、治理和政治的知识和理解方面取得重大进展，并致力于提高政治学研究的公共价值。作为美国中西部政治学协会的官方期刊，AJPS发表政治学所有主要领域的研究，包括美国政治、公共政策、国际关系、比较政治、政治方法和政治理论。该刊寻求对政治学任何子领域的重要理论问题、经验问题或方法论的学术知识有突出贡献的稿件。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=4.503，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第21（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Mutual Optimism and War, and the Strategic Tensions of the July Crisis
国家间的相互乐观主义与战争，“七月危机”背后的战略紧张关系
Ideological Asymmetries and the Determinants of Politically Motivated Reasoning
意识形态不对称与政治动机性推理的决定性因素
Exposure and Preferences: Evidence from Indian Slums
接触和偏好：来自印度贫民窟的证据
District Magnitude and Female Representation: Evidence from Argentina and Latin America
选区规模与女性代表：来自阿根廷与拉丁美洲的证据
Measuring Agenda Setting in Interactive Political Communication
测量互动性政治传播中的议程设置
Tocqueville’s State of Nature Foundation
托克维尔思想中的自然状态理论基础
Deepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in Kenya
民族分裂在加剧还是减轻？论肯尼亚城市移民的影响
Metrics Management and Bureaucratic Accountability: Evidence from Policing
指标管理与官员问责：来自警务官员的证据
UN Peacekeeping and Households’ Well-Being in Civil Wars
内战中的联合国维和行动与家庭福祉
Courting Informal Workers: Exclusion, Forbearance, and the Left
讨好非正式工人：排斥、宽容与左派
Democracy by Deterrence: Norms, Constitutions, and Electoral Tilting
威慑下的民主：规范、宪制与选举倾斜
Strategic Allocation of Irrevocable and Durable Benefits
针对无法撤销与持久性利益的策略性分配
Partisanship, Economic Assessments, and Presidential Accountability
党派、经济评估和总统问责制
Sowing the Seeds: Radicalization as a Political Tool
播下种子：作为政治工具的激进化
Hate Crimes and Gender Imbalances: Fears over Mate Competition and Violence against Refugees
仇恨犯罪与性别失衡：对配偶竞争与暴力侵害难民的恐惧
Campaign Finance Transparency Affects Legislators’ Election Outcomes and Behavior
竞选活动的财务透明度对立法者的选举结果和行为的影响
PART 3
精选译文
01 国家间的相互乐观主义与战争，“七月危机”背后的战略紧张关系
【题目】
Mutual Optimism and War, and the Strategic Tensions of the July Crisis
【作者】
Alexandre Debs
【摘要】
国家间的相互乐观主义是一种对战争的理性主义解释吗？如果不同国家对权力平衡有着无法相容的信念，那么即认为它们相互之间是乐观的。国家通过私下渠道了解的信息可能会助长这种信念，但问题在于，如果获得的有利于己方的信息促使国家做出了战争的决定，一旦纳入了对均衡战略的理解，并在之后观测到敌方的战争决定，一个理性国家为何能够继续维持这种不相容的信念？我在本文中说明，如果国家具有多种发动战争的理由，如获得有关权力均势的有利信号，或是有着对解决争议性问题的强烈决心，那么理性的敌人便可以持有与其不相容的信念，因为对他们而言，对方对战争的偏好可能并非仅来自于有利的信号。如果对方的宣战有助于证明自己的战斗决定是正确的，那么理性的国家甚至会为宣战叫好。我在文中讨论了这个论点如何解释第一次世界大战发生的原因。
Is mutual optimism a rationalist explanation for war? Countries are mutually optimistic if they have incompatible beliefs about the balance of power. Private information may fuel such beliefs, but it is unclear how rational countries could maintain incompatible beliefs if favorable information motivates a decision to fight, once countries incorporate their understanding of equilibrium strategies and later observe their enemy’s decision to fight. I show that if countries have multiple reasons to fight -- a favorable signal about the balance of power and a high resolve for the issue in dispute -- then rational enemies can hold incompatible beliefs about the balance of power because an enemy’s preference for war may not come from a favorable signal. Rational countries may even celebrate such an announcement, if it helps justify their own decision to fight. I discuss the implications of this argument for the causes of the First World War.
02 意识形态不对称与政治动机性推理的决定性因素
【题目】
Ideological Asymmetries and the Determinants of Politically Motivated Reasoning
【作者】
Brian Guay, Christopher D. Johnston
【摘要】
大量文献表明，相较于自由派，保守派对确定性的需求更大。这一点反映了一种不对称假设：保守派对于与他们的政治身份相冲突的新信息不太开放，换言之，对右派的政治问责会低于左派。然而，最近的学术作品表明，自由派和保守派同样容易进行政治动机性推理（politically motivated reasoning）。本文旨在解释这一难题。首先，我们指出了现有研究在评估不对称假说过程中出现的重大局限性，并开展了两个全国性调查实验来探究这些问题。其次，我们对不对称假说背后的关键理论主张——即对确定性的认知层面需求促进了政治动机性推理——首次进行了直接检验，发现能够证明信息不对称假说的证据有限。更重要的是，我们也未发现任何证据表明，认知层面的需求会促进政治动机性推理。也就是说，尽管保守派相比自由派更需要确定性，但这些需求并不是引发政治偏见的主要来源。
A large literature demonstrates that conservatives have greater needs for certainty than liberals. This suggests an asymmetry hypothesis: Conservatives are less open to new information that conflicts with their political identity and, in turn, political accountability will be lower on the right than the left. However, recent work suggests that liberals and conservatives are equally prone to politically motivated reasoning (PMR). The present article confronts this puzzle. First, we identify significant limitations of extant studies evaluating the asymmetry hypothesis and deploy two national survey experiments to address them. Second, we provide the first direct test of the key theoretical claim underpinning the asymmetry hypothesis: epistemic needs for certainty promote PMR. We find little evidence for the asymmetry hypothesis. Importantly, however, we also find no evidence that epistemic needs promote PMR. That is, although conservatives report greater needs for certainty than liberals, these needs are not a major source of political bias.
03 接触和偏好：来自印度贫民窟的证据
【题目】
Exposure and Preferences: Evidence from Indian Slums
【作者】
Jeremy Spater
【摘要】
与族裔外群体的实际距离与群间敌意和同族投票存在怎样的关系？尽管学者已对此进行了广泛的研究，但对于这种关联的解释依然不够清晰。其中的一部分原因在于现有测量异质性的方法在地理空间层面过于粗糙，对人际接触的研究不足。因此，我引入了一个测量外群体接触的指标，基于“k近邻算法”进行打分，并分解到个体层面来规避测量问题。我使用了来自八个社区的地理编码网络数据证明我所创建的指标能够反映个体层面的社会接触。我将这个指标用于对印度各城市149个社区展开的大样本调查实验，以检验个体在住处的社会接触与外群敌意和同族投票间的关联。我发现，与族裔外群体的接近程度与对同族裔候选人的偏好有关，但不会增加对群体外成员的敌意。
How is physical proximity to ethnic outgroups related to intergroup hostility and coethnic voting? These relationships remain murky despite extensive study, in part because existing measures of heterogeneity are too geographically coarse and provide little insight into interpersonal contact. I introduce a measure of outgroup exposure, the k-nearest-neighbors score, which sidesteps fundamental measurement issues by disaggregating to the level of the individual. Using original geocoded network data from eight neighborhoods, I confirm that this metric reflects social contact at the individual level. I then apply this exposure metric to an original, large-n survey experiment from surveys in 149 neighborhoods in cities across India to test whether individual residential exposure is associated with outgroup hostility and coethnic voting. I find that proximity to an ethnic outgroup is associated with a preference for coethnic candidates, but is not associated with greater hostility toward members of the outgroup.
04 选区规模与女性代表性：来自阿根廷与拉丁美洲的证据
【题目】
District Magnitude and Female Representation: Evidence from Argentina and Latin America
【作者】
Adrian Lucardi, Juan Pablo Micozzi
【摘要】
我们在本文中指出，选区规模对女性代表性的总体影响是不确定的。一方面，选区规模的扩大增加了政党规模，继而增加了女性的选举席位；但另一方面也增加了获得席位的群体数量，而其中边缘群体的领导通常为男性。我们在识别过程中选取了以下事实：阿根廷众议院和布宜诺斯艾利斯市立法机构每两年会重新选举一半的成员，因此一些地区在同期和中期选举中会呈现不同的规模。我们发现，选区规模的扩大对女性代表性产生了正向但微弱的影响，这种效应可以分解为由政党规模驱动的正向影响和由分到席位名单数量增加带来的负向影响。我们在七个拉美国家的样本中都发现了类似的结果。
We claim that the overall effect of district magnitude on female representation is ambiguous because district magnitude increases both (a) party magnitude—which promotes the election of women, and (b) the number of lists getting seats—which hampers it, as marginal lists are usually headed by men. For identification, we exploit the fact that the Argentine Chamber of Deputies and the Buenos Aires legislature elect half of their members every two years, and thus some districts have varying magnitudes in concurrent and midterm elections. We find a positive but weak effect of district magnitude on female representation, which can be decomposed into a positive effect driven by party magnitude and a negative one channeled by the number of lists getting seats. We find similar results in a sample of seven Latin American countries.
05 测量互动性政治传播中的议程设置
【题目】
Measuring Agenda Setting in Interactive Political Communication
【作者】
Erin L. Rossiter
【摘要】
尽管目前有一些策略可以测量行动主体如何设置政策、媒体和立法议程，但政治科学家们仍然缺乏识别和准确测量二人谈话背后隐藏的议程设置的方法。在如辩论、协商和讨论等形式的互动中，行动主体可以通过将他人的注意力转移到自己喜欢的话题上来设置议程。在本文中，我使用了一个话题模型，该模型能够定位互动中话题转移的位置，从而测量行为者的议程设置中的相对权力关系。经验证表明，该模型能够准确地识别话题的转移并推断出连贯的话题。此外，我使用了美国总统辩论、协商和在线讨论来验证我所提出的测量方式能够应用于不同的政治情境下的议程设置。这些实证案例表明，通过成功地设置议程能够影响互动交流的结果，因此说明了这种议程设置形式的重要性。
Although strategies exist to measure actors’ efforts to set policy, media, and lawmaking agendas, political scientists lack a method for identifying and accurately measuring another form of agenda setting that lies under the surface anytime two people talk. Within interactions, such as debates, deliberations, and discussions, actors can set the agenda by shifting others’ attention to their preferred topics. In this article, I use a topic model that locates where topic shifts occur within an interaction in order to measure the relative agenda-setting power of actors. Validation exercises show that the model accurately identifies topic shifts and infers coherent topics. Three empirical applications also validate the agenda-setting measure within different political settings: U.S. presidential debates, in-person deliberations, and online discussions. These applications show that successfully setting the agenda can shape an interaction’s outcomes, demonstrating the importance of continued research on this form of agenda setting.
06 托克维尔思想中的自然状态理论基础
【题目】
Tocqueville’s State of Nature Foundation
【作者】
Ra´ul G. Rodr´ıguez
【摘要】
本文对托克维尔自由主义的思想基础提出了全新的解释。目前学术界的共识是，托克维尔拒斥了早期现代政治思想中的自然状态理论基础。但与这种正统观点相反，我认为这一早期现代理论构成了托克维尔政治哲学的基础。本文认为，托克维尔的《济贫法报告》（Memoir on Pauperism）证明他的人类学进路在很大程度上归功于自然状态理论，尤其是卢梭的理论。此外，结合《济贫法报告》阅读《论美国的民主》的关键章节，可以看出自然状态理论在托克维尔的新政治学中起到的作用。最后，《旧制度与大革命》解释了为什么托克维尔是一个温和的自然状态学派思想家。通过发掘这一迄今未受人注意的理论基础，我希望挑战现有的研究，促使学者们重新审视托克维尔创新性的自由主义思想经久不衰的重要性。
This article presents an entirely new interpretation of the foundations of Alexis de Tocqueville’s liberalism. The current scholarly consensus is that Tocqueville rejects the state of nature foundation of early modern political thought. In contrast to this orthodox view, I maintain that this early modern theory serves as one of the foundations of his political philosophy. This essay contends that Tocqueville’s Memoir on Pauperism proves that he has an anthropology that is heavily indebted to state of nature theory, particularly Rousseau’s. Moreover, key sections of Democracy in America, read in light of the Memoir on Pauperism, reveal that state of nature theory is operative in Tocqueville’s new political science. Finally, The Old Regime and the Revolution explains why Tocqueville was a moderate state of nature thinker. By unearthing this hitherto unnoticed foundation, I hope to challenge scholars to reexamine the enduring importance of Tocqueville’s innovative liberalism.
07 民族分裂在加剧还是减轻？论肯尼亚城市移民的影响
【题目】
Deepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in Kenya
【作者】
Eric Kramon, Joan Hamory, Sarah Baird, Edward Miguel
【摘要】
城市移民对族裔政治的影响是一个长期受到争论的话题。“第一代”现代化理论预测，城市移民会降低族裔认同，增加不同群体之间的信任。"第二代 "现代化理论的观点则相反：城市移民可能会扩大族裔认同，减少群体间信任。我们通过对8000多名肯尼亚人进行为期15年的三波面板调查来检验这些竞争性理论，为城市移民带来的影响提供新的证据。通过使用个人固定效应回归，我们表明，城市移民降低了族群认同；移民之后，族裔对于个体的重要性降低了。然而，城市移民也减少了族裔群体间的信任，以及对人的信任。城市移民对其族裔的依恋程度降低，变得更加爱怀疑。这些结论推进了关于城市化和政治的研究，对探究世界各地正在发生的城市化进程的潜在后果有着重要意义。
The impact of urban migration on ethnic politics is the subject of long-standing debate. “First-generation”modernization theories predict that urban migration should reduce ethnic identification and increase trust between groups.“Second-generation” modernization perspectives argue the opposite: Urban migration may amplify ethnic identification and reduce trust. We test these competing expectations with a three-wave panel survey following more than 8,000 Kenyans over a 15-year period, providing novel evidence on the impact of urban migration. Using individual fixed effects regressions, we show that urban migration leads to reductions in ethnic identification; ethnicity’s importance to the individual diminishes after migrating. Yet urban migration also reduces trust between ethnic groups, and trust in people generally. Urban migrants become less attached to their ethnicity but more suspicious. The results advance the literature on urbanization and politics and have implications for the potential consequences of ongoing urbanization processes around the world.
08 指标管理与官员问责：来自警务官员的证据
【题目】
Metrics Management and Bureaucratic Accountability: Evidence from Policing
【作者】
Laurel Eckhouse
【摘要】
官僚机构越来越多地采用量化措施来监控人员行为。我根据常用的一种官僚问责技术——指标管理建立了一个激励模型，并以警务为例，说明监控会导致本具有公共利益动机的官僚们把注意力放在不符合公共利益的工作上。此外，我开发了一种用于测量犯罪统计中的数据操纵的新方法：虽然在理论上存在着数据操纵的可能，但对于研究者而言，通常只能观察到已被改变的数据。针对这一点，我利用了警务部门可以将强奸（而非其他暴力犯罪）重新归类为“毫无根据”的案件从而得出报告的犯罪没有发生这一事实。我使用了一个新的数据集来检验警务工作中指标管理的效果，我发现CompStat会与每个城市每年至少3500次额外的轻微犯罪相关，同时还关联着大量的数据操纵以及居高不下的严重犯罪率。这些发现对于使用量化指标管理的官僚机构、使用行政数据的学术研究和法律实施具有重要意义。
Bureaucracies increasingly use quantitative measures to monitor personnel behavior. I develop a model of the incentives created by metrics management, a bureaucratic accountability technique, using policing as a case to show that monitoring can lead public-interest motivated bureaucrats to focus on work not in the public interest. Second, I develop a new measure of data manipulation in crime statistics: although theory predicts the presence of manipulation, researchers observe only the altered data. I solve this using the fact that police departments can reclassify rapes (but not other violent crimes) as “unfounded,” concluding the reported crime did not occur. Finally, I test the effects of metrics management in policing using a novel data set. CompStat is associated with at least 3,500 additional minor arrests per city-year, substantial data manipulation, and no decrease in serious crime. These results have implications for bureaucracies implementing metrics management, scholarship using administrative data, and legal implementation.
09 内战中的联合国维和行动与家庭福祉
【题目】
UN Peacekeeping and Households’ Well-Being in Civil Wars
【作者】
Vincenzo Bove Jessica Di Salvatore Leandro Elia
【摘要】
内战通过扰乱贸易和损害心理健康来影响家庭的经济状况。为恢复冲突地区经济复苏的基本条件，可供国际社会使用的工具数量有限。我们在文中提出了以下问题：联合国维和行动是否能够减轻冲突对家庭经济福祉的负面影响。我们认为，联合国维和部队通过减少暴力事件的发生及提高民众的安全意识，从而（1）鼓励民众提供劳动力、继续经济往来；（2）减少日常压力对民众心理的影响，给他们带来信心。结合高频家庭调查数据和联合国维和人员在南苏丹地方部署的有关信息，我们表明维和人员在军事上的存在感提高了对人们对安全的（观察和感知），而这又提振了当地经济和家庭的主观幸福感。这些条件的改善最终会促进家庭消费，维持当地社区的经济活动，在一定程度上抵消持久内战的负面影响。
Civil wars affect the economic conditions of households by disrupting economic transactions and harming their psychological well-being. To restore basic conditions for local economic recovery in conflict-torn regions, the international community has only a limited number of tools at its disposal. We ask whether UN peacekeeping is one instrument to mitigate the negative effect of conflict on households’ economic well-being.We argue that, by reducing violence and heightening perceptions of safety, UN missions (i) encourage labor provision and economic exchanges, and (ii) instill confidence by reducing the psychological impact of daily stressors. Combining high-frequency household survey data and information on subnational deployment of UN peacekeepers in South Sudan, we show that peacekeepers’ military presence improves security (observed and perceived), which in turn revitalizes local economies and households’ subjective well-being. These improvements ultimately boost households’ consumption, partially countering the negative effect of ongoing civil wars by keeping local communities’ economy afloat.
10 讨好非正式工人：排斥、宽容与左派
【题目】
Courting Informal Workers: Exclusion, Forbearance, and the Left
【作者】
German Feierherd
【摘要】
人们通常认为与有组织的劳工有密切联系的左翼政府会增加受工作保障规则保护的工人人数。但实际情况确实如此吗？我讨论了巴西由左派掌权的地方政府是否会打击雇用非合同、非正规部门工人的企业，并实施旨在缩小非正规部门规模的政策。通过对临近选举期的断点回归设计，我发现出身工人党 (PT) 的市长实际上抑制了针对非正规雇佣的执法行为，并改善非正规工人的就业环境，而不是鼓励其转向正规工作。这反映了左翼政党在世界各地面临的挑战：如何在全球竞争加剧、劳动力市场分化以及拉丁美洲福利水平下降的背景下，同时改善临时与全职工人的就业前景和工作环境。
Leftist governments with strong links to organized labor are expected to increase the number of people protected by job security rules. But do they? I explore whether the Left in power at the local level in Brazil cracks down on enterprises that employ noncontract, informal-sector workers, and implements policies aimed at reducing the size of the informal sector. With a close-election regression-discontinuity design, I show that mayors from the Workers’ Party (PT) in fact slow down enforcement and improve conditions in the informal sector, rather than encouraging a shift to formal jobs. This reflects a challenge that leftist parties face across the world: how to simultaneously improve the employment prospects and conditions of workers in precarious employment and those in full-time jobs in the context of increased global competition, segmented labor markets and, in Latin America, truncated welfare states.
11 威慑下的民主：规范、宪制与选举倾斜（Tilting）
【题目】
Democracy by Deterrence: Norms, Constitutions, and Electoral Tilting
【作者】
Gretchen Helmke, Mary Kroeger, Jack Paine
【摘要】
在当代民主国家，民主倒退通常发生在法律机制的运行过程中。自我加强的民主防止政党通过法律途径来改变选举规则。我们建立了博弈模型，认为相互容忍（mutual forbearance）的非正式规范和正式的宪制规则在威慑的逻辑下是根本上相互交织的。通过限制各党合法地改变规则的程度，如果相互容忍的机制崩溃，法律的界限就会产生一个回归点（reversion points）。如果政党间的法律界限是对称的，一方就是通过提出可信的威胁来惩罚另一方的违法行为，从而阻止选举倾斜。然而，如果法律界限变得足够不对称，那这种互相容忍的基础就会崩溃。当一些群体比其他群体更容易受到法律允许的选举扭曲（distortions），以及当受偏好与不被偏好的群体鲜明地划分入某个党派时，就会出现不对称（asymmetries）现象。我们运用这种机制来解释后民权运动时代美国的选区划分和投票权。
In contemporary democracies, backsliding typically occurs through legal machinations. Self-enforcing democracy requires that political parties refrain from exploiting legal opportunities to tilt electoral rules. Using a formal model, we argue that informal norms of mutual forbearance and formal constitutional rules are fundamentally intertwined via a logic of deterrence. By circumscribing how far each party can legally bend the rules, legal bounds create reversion points if mutual forbearance collapses. If legal bounds are symmetric between parties, they deter electoral tilting by making credible each party’s threat to punish transgressions by the other. If legal bounds become sufficiently asymmetric, however, the foundations for forbearance crumble. Asymmetries emerge when some groups (a) are more vulnerable than others to legally permissible electoral distortions and (b) favored and disfavored groups sort heavily into parties. We apply this mechanism to explain gerrymandering and voting rights in the United States in the post-Civil Rights era.
12 针对无法撤销与持久性利益的策略性分配
【题目】
Strategic Allocation of Irrevocable and Durable Benefits
【作者】
Anderson Frey
【摘要】
再分配理论背后的逻辑是在任者通过具有针对性的利益建立并维持与选民的联系。然而，近期的一支文献表明，在庇护主义泛滥的环境中，一些福利会产生抵消效应：通过永久地提高选民的收入，这些无法撤销且持久的福利可能会减少选民对于现任者的依赖。本文解释了在权衡收入效应与给予选民的常规性再分配回馈时，政党如何战略性地分配这些利益。这一理论强调了之前未研究过的反对派地区的情形：削弱选民对选举动员群体（political machine）的依赖。我使用了庇护主义猖獗的巴西半干旱地区州政府的蓄水池分配的行政数据来检验我提出的框架。各州仅在地方性庇护主义动员能力薄弱之地才会倾向于支持由同盟党派管理的地区。但在反对派势力强大的地方，各州倾向于由反对派领导自治市，并避开自己的地盘。
The logic behind redistribution theories is that incumbents target benefits to build and sustain linkages with voters. However, a recent literature shows that some benefits can have a countervailing effect in environments plagued by clientelism: by permanently boosting voters’ incomes, irrevocable and durable benefits might reduce their dependence on incumbents. This article explains how parties strategically allocate these benefits when trading off the income effect relative to the standard electoral rewards of redistribution. The theory highlights a previously unstudied rationale to target opposition areas: to weaken voters’ dependence on machines. The framework is tested with administrative data on the allocation of cisterns by state governments across Brazilian semi-arid municipalities, where clientelism is rampant. States favor areas governed by copartisans, but only where local clientelistic mobilization is weak. Where it is strong, states favor municipalities led by the opposition, while avoiding their own local strongholds.
13 党派、经济评估和总统问责制
【题目】
Partisanship, Economic Assessments, and Presidential Accountability
【作者】
Zoe Ang, Andrew Reeves, Jon C. Rogowski, Arjun Vishwanath
【摘要】
对选民和政治决策者来说，没有什么问题比经济状况更为重要；同时在美国，总统与经济间的关联高于任何其他官员。然而，目前学者在党派忠诚如何影响经济评估的问题上产生了分歧。我们利用2016年总统大选前后通过全国概率抽样中收集的八波面板数据，研究了总统的党派如何影响人们对经济的看法。我们发现，尽管个体层面的认知在很大程度上随时间保持稳定，但掌权白宫的党派变化在共和党人中获得了更多对经济的正面评价，而在民主党人中获得了更多对经济的负面评价。这种效应在统计上显著，但在实际情况中影响有限。我们的研究结果表明，即使是在党派之争盛行的时代，党派争斗与经济评估之间的联系并不像先前一些学者所宣称的那么紧密，并且对总统问责的前景提出了更乐观的结论。
Few issues are more salient for voters or more important in political decision making than economic conditions, and no American public official is more closely associated with the economy than the president. Existing scholarship disagrees, however, about how partisan loyalties affect economic evaluations. We study how partisan control of the presidency affects economic perceptions using eight waves of panel data collected around the 2016 presidential election from a national probability sample. We find that although individual-level perceptions are largely stable across time, the change in partisan control of the White House was associated with more positive evaluations among Republicans and more negative evaluations among Democrats. These effects are statistically significant yet substantively modest in magnitude. Our results indicate that partisanship is less strongly associated with economic assessments than some previous scholarship has claimed and suggest more sanguine conclusions about the prospects for presidential accountability even in a partisan era.
14 播下种子：作为政治工具的激进化
【题目】
Sowing the Seeds: Radicalization as a Political Tool
【作者】
Todd C. Lehmann Scott A. Tyson
【摘要】
没有反对派组织后勤援助的激进个人是否会给反对派领导人带来负担或优势？为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一种理论，将激进化定义为“自我驱动式地提出异见”，并建立了将这种激进化与针对反对派组织的运作能力或其领导层的镇压联系起来的新型策略渠道。我们的主要研究结果表明，激进化的公民所采取的针对性镇压行动比重是下降的。我们建立了反对派领导人推进公民激进化决策的内生性，表明反对派领导人在即使无法获得任何激进化带来的直接好处的情形下，仍然会为此付出努力。因此，激进化是一种政治工具，通过减少镇压的有效性来阻止镇压。为了更好地理解这一策略性后果，我们分析了两种常见的经济和心理层面的政策干预，发现改善经济状况会减少激进化的尝试与抗议；然而在心理层面干预个体的激进化，有时反而会适得其反地增加其提出异见的行为，这是因为这种干预在同时增加了领导者推行激进化政策的力度。
Do radicalized individuals with no logistical assistance from opposition groups generate liabilities or advantages for opposition leaders? To address this question, we develop a theory that articulates a novel strategic channel connecting radicalization, defined as self-motivation to dissent, to repression targeting an opposition group’s operational capacity or its leadership. Our main result shows that targeted repression is strictly decreasing in the proportion of radicalized citizens. We endogenize opposition leaders’ decision to radicalize citizens and show that opposition leaders, even absent any direct benefit to radicalize, nevertheless invest effort into radicalization. Thus, radicalization is a political tool to deter repression by decreasing its usefulness. To better understand this strategic consequence, we analyze two common policy interventions—economic and psychological—and show that improving economic conditions reduces both radicalization efforts and dissent, while making individuals psychologically less susceptible to radicalization can sometimes backfire and increase dissent because it increases leaders’ radicalization efforts.
15 仇恨犯罪与性别失衡：对配偶竞争与暴力侵害难民的恐惧
【题目】
Hate Crimes and Gender Imbalances: Fears over Mate Competition and Violence against Refugees
【作者】
Rafaela Dancygier, Naoki Egami, Amaney Jamal, Ramona Rischke
【摘要】
随着世界各地难民数量的增加，反难民暴力已成为一个紧迫的问题。如何解释这种仇恨犯罪发生的原因以及对罪行的支持？我们认为，本地男性对难民在争夺女性伴侣方面构成威胁的恐惧，是推动仇恨犯罪的一个关键但研究不足的因素。我们使用了一组关于德国仇恨犯罪发生率的综合性数据首先证明了当男性在当地婚恋市场面临劣势时，仇恨犯罪会上升。接下来，我们用新的调查测量方式对这一生态的形成的补充了证据，并证实当男性担心难民的流入使他们更难找到女性伴侣时，个体层面对仇恨犯罪的支持会增加。我们发现，在控制了反难民观点、感知到的工作竞争、普遍的挫败感和侵略性之外，对配偶竞争的担忧仍然是一个强有力的预测因素。我们的结论是，要更全面地理解仇恨犯罪和移民冲突，必须纳入对婚姻市场和配偶竞争的研究。
As the number of refugees rises across the world, anti-refugee violence has become a pressing concern. What explains the incidence and support of such hate crime? We argue that fears among native men that refugees pose a threat in the competition for female partners are a critical but understudied factor driving hate crime. Employing a comprehensive data set on the incidence of hate crime across Germany, we first demonstrate that hate crime rises where men face disadvantages in local mating markets. Next, we complement this ecological evidence with original survey measures and confirm that individual-level support for hate crime increases when men fear that the inflow of refugees makes it more difficult to find female partners. Mate competition concerns remain a robust predictor even when controlling for anti-refugee views, perceived job competition, general frustration, and aggressiveness. We conclude that a more complete understanding of hate crime and immigrant conflict must incorporate marriage markets and mate competition.
16 竞选活动的财务透明度对立法者的选举结果和行为的影响
【题目】
Campaign Finance Transparency Affects Legislators’ Election Outcomes and Behavior
【作者】
Rafaela Dancygier, Naoki Egami, Amaney Jamal, Ramona Rischke
【摘要】
执行机构的审计会影响被审计人员的行为吗？披露议员的负面信息会影响选举结果和选举行为吗？提升透明度的制度，如竞选资金披露，会影响大众和精英的行为。竞选资金透明度在立法活动中向选民提供有关候选人性格的信息，而这些信息会影响选民和立法者的行为。上世纪70年代，美国联邦选举委员会（Federal Election Commission）对10%的众议院议员进行了随机审计，而这个选举委员会的项目是美国机构对联邦议员及其选民进行的唯一一项随机实验。我们发现，与对照组相比，经过审计的立法者更有可能退休，或面临更艰难的连任，如果在审计期间出现了在任何的竞选财务违规，这种效应会进一步放大。此外，在2000年代，竞选财务丑闻与在任者较低的得票率与支持率以及较多的负面广告具有关联性。
Do audits by executive agencies impact the behavior of those audited? Does revealing negative information about legislators affect electoral results and behavior? Institutions that encourage transparency, such as campaign finance disclosure, influence mass and elite behavior. Campaign finance transparency provides information to voters during legislative campaigns about the character of candidates, and this information affects voter and legislator behavior. The US Federal Election Commission conducted random audits of 10% of US House members in the 1970s. This FEC program is the only randomized experiment a US agency has conducted on federal legislators and their electorates.We find that audited legislators were more likely to retire and faced more competitive reelections relative to the control group, an effect that is amplified among incumbents whose audits revealed campaign finance violations. Further, campaign finance scandals are associated with lower incumbent vote shares and approval and more negative advertisements in the 2000s.
翻 译：宋文佳、周嘉豪
校 对：宋文佳、周嘉豪
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：郭见田
二审：李璐雅