国际顶刊 |《比较政治研究》第55卷（2022年）第6-8期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了Comparative Political Studies（CPS，《比较政治研究》）2022年第55卷第6-8期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
CPS各期封面
Comparative Political Studies（CPS，《比较政治研究》）是一个比较政治学者和学生交流思想的国际顶刊之一。期刊刊载的文章包括了全球学者关于比较方法论、理论和研究的创新工作。该刊力图向读者展现全球范围内比较政治研究的全景式画面：从第三世界的民主到中东的文武关系，从东欧的选举制度和政党政治到拉丁美洲的经济表现，从比较北美和西欧的政治庇护到亚洲国家的民族冲突。《比较政治研究》被认为是政治科学中比较政治子领域最为重要的期刊之一。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=3.955，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第33（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Volume 55, Issue 6
Who Registers? Village Networks, Household Dynamics, and Voter Registration in Rural Uganda
谁在登记？乌干达农村地区的村庄网络、家庭动态和选民登记
An Informational Theory of Genocide and Politicide During Civil War
内战时期种族灭绝和政治屠戮的信息理论
State-building and the European Union: Markets, War, and Europe’s Uneven Political Development
国家建设和欧洲联盟：市场、战争和欧洲不平衡的政治发展
Breaking the Cabinet’s Glass Ceiling: The Gendered Effect of Political Experience in Presidential Democracies
打破内阁的玻璃天花板：总统制民主国家中政治经验的性别化影响
Partisanship as Cause, Not Consequence, of Participation
党派性是参与的原因，而非结果
Volume 55, Issue 7
At the Intersection of Gender and Class: How Were Newly Enfranchised Women Mobilized in Sweden?
在性别和阶级的交叉点：瑞典新获得选举权的妇女是如何被动员起来的？
Betrayed by the Elites: How Corruption Amplifies the Political Effects of Recessions
被精英背叛：腐败如何放大经济衰退的政治影响
A Decline in the Social Status of the Working Class? Conflicting Evidence for 8 Western Countries, 1987–2017
工人阶级社会地位的下降？1987年-2017年8个西方国家的矛盾证据
(Un)Natural Disasters: Electoral Cycles in Disaster Relief
（非）自然灾害：灾难救济中的选举周期
Institutions, Climate Change, and the Foundations of Long-Term Policymaking
制度、气候变化和长期决策的基础
What Happens When Coups Fail? The Problem of Identifying and Weakening the Enemy Within
政变失败后会发生什么？识别和削弱内部敌人
Volume 55, Issue 8
Standing up for Democracy? Explaining Citizens’ Support for Democratic Checks and Balances
为民主挺身而出？解释公民对民主分权制衡的支持
Revisiting the Impact of Modernization on Support for Women Politicians: The Role of Women’s Political Empowerment
重新审视现代化对女性政治家支持度的影响：女性政治赋权的作用
How Voters Respond to Currency Crises: Evidence From Turkey
选民如何应对货币危机：来自土耳其的证据
Collusion, Co-Optation, or Evasion: The Politics of Drug Trafficking Violence in Central America
共谋、拉拢或逃避：中美洲贩毒暴力的政治
Moralizing Immigration: Political Framing, Moral Conviction, and Polarization in the United States and Denmark
移民问题的道德化：美国和丹麦的政治框架、道德信念和两极分化
PART 3
精选译文
Volume 55 - Issue 6 - May 2022
01 谁在登记？乌干达农村地区的村庄网络、家庭动态和选民登记
【题目】
Who Registers? Village Networks, Household Dynamics, and Voter Registration in Rural Uganda
【作者】
Romain Ferrali, Guy Grossman, Melina R. Platas, and Jonathan Rodden
【摘要】
谁在登记投票？虽然已有广泛的研究考察了谁在投票的问题，但在我们知道谁被选民登记忽略了之前，我们对政治参与的决定性因素的理解仍将是有限的。由于数据的限制，在低收入环境中研究选民登记尤其具有挑战性。我们将官方的选民登记与16个村庄的完整的社会网络普查联系起来，以分析乌干达农村地区选民登记的相关因素，检验了个体属性及社会关系的作用。我们发现，有证据证明，社会关系对于解释家庭内部和家庭之间的登记状况非常重要。村民领袖以及通过他们发挥作用的户主在解释村庄里其他人的登记状况方面扮演着重要的角色，这表明了社会影响的扩散过程。社会经济因素，例如收入和教育，并不能解释这种环境下的登记。这些发现共同表明，我们需要一种替代性的参与理论。
Who registers to vote? Although extensive research has examined the question of who votes, our understanding of the determinants of political participation will be limited until we know who is missing from the voter register. Studying voter registration in lower-income settings is particularly challenging due to data constraints. We link the official voter register with a complete social network census of 16 villages to analyze the correlates of voter registration in rural Uganda, examining the role of individual-level attributes and social ties. We find evidence that social ties are important for explaining registration status within and across households. Village leaders—and through them, household heads—play an important role in explaining the registration status of others in the village, suggesting a diffuse process of social influence. Socioeconomic factors such as income and education do not explain registration in this setting. Together these findings suggest an alternate theory of participation is required.
02 内战时期种族灭绝和政治屠戮的信息理论
【题目】
An Informational Theory of Genocide and Politicide During Civil War
【作者】
Gary Uzonyi
【摘要】
为什么一些政府会在内战期间对其平民进行种族灭绝或政治屠戮？关于这个重要问题的学术研究认为，这种残暴行为是政府通过军事胜利来维持权力的一种战略工具。回到冲突讨价还价的逻辑，我重新将种族灭绝和政治屠戮概念化为一种提取对手信息的手段。我认为，当一个政府对它的胜利概率更不确定时，它更有可能在冲突期间采取这些暴行，以便更快地从战场上获取更好的信息。我用自1945年以来的所有内战检验了这一论点，并为这一主张找到了支持。当叛军依靠平民动员战士时，这些动态就更加明显了。我的论点有助于将种族灭绝和冲突讨价还价的重要研究更好地联系起来。
Why do some governments engage in genocide or politicide against their civilian population during civil war? Scholarship on this important question views such brutality as a strategic tool the government can use to maintain power through military victory. Returning to the logic of conflict bargaining, I re-conceptualize genocide and politicide as a means to extract information about one’s opponent. I argue that a government is more likely to employ these atrocities during conflict when it is more uncertain about its probability of victory to reveal better information more quickly from the battlefield. I test this argument on all civil wars since 1945 and find support for this claim. These dynamics are more pronounced when the rebels rely on the civilian population to mobilize fighters. My argument helps bridge significant works in the genocide and conflict-bargaining literatures.
03 国家建设和欧洲联盟：市场、战争和欧洲不平衡的政治发展
【题目】
State-building and the European Union: Markets, War, and Europe’s Uneven Political Development
【作者】
R. Daniel Kelemen and Kathleen R. McNamara
【摘要】
欧盟的体制发展是非常不平衡的。它已经建立了强大的法律权威和机构，但在财政、行政和强制能力的集中化方面，它仍然软弱无力。我们认为，将欧盟置于国家建设的历史中，可以让我们更好地理解欧盟治理的结果。从历史上看，当市场和安全的压力同时存在以促使国家形成时，集中权力的政治计划是最为彻底的。在欧盟，市场力量的影响远远大于直接的军事威胁。我们通过对欧元区和申根区这两个实证性案例的应用，初步证明了这种方法的前景。我们的分析表明，欧盟不需要成为韦伯式的国家，也并非注定成为一个韦伯式的国家，国家建设的视角就可以为其政治发展进程带来新的启示。
The European Union’s institutional development is highly imbalanced. It has established robust legal authority and institutions, but it remains weak or impotent in terms of its centralization of fiscal, administrative, and coercive capacity. We argue that situating the EU in terms of the history of state-building allows us to better understand the outcomes of EU governance. Historically, political projects centralizing power have been most complete when both market and security pressures are present to generate state formation. With the EU, market forces have had a far greater influence than immediate military threats. We offer a preliminary demonstration of the promise of this approach by applying it to two empirical examples, the euro and the Schengen area. Our analysis suggests that the EU does not need to be a Weberian state, nor be destined to become one, for the state-building perspective to shed new light on its processes of political development.
04 打破内阁的玻璃天花板：总统制民主国家中政治经验的性别化影响
【题目】
Breaking the Cabinet’s Glass Ceiling: The Gendered Effect of Political Experience in Presidential Democracies
【作者】
Don S. Lee and Charles T. McClean
【摘要】
部长们在进入总统内阁后，是否会在职业生涯中面临性别区别对待？过去的研究发现，在欧洲和美洲更成熟的民主制国家中，几乎没有性别区别对待的证据。与此不同，我们认为，在西方以外的新兴民主国家，政治经验可以对内阁职业生涯产生性别化的影响。利用固定效应和配对设计，我们分析了来自亚洲所有主要总统制民主国家的1374位部长的职业生涯的原始数据。在调查“内阁晋升”的模式时，即部长们从最初的内阁任命转移到一个威望更高的职位时，我们确认了在这个新的背景下，性别没有直接影响。然而，我们也发现了基于政治经验的重要性别差异，相较于男性，这更有助于女性在内阁中向上流动。研究发现，获得晋升职位的途径因性别而异，这增加了我们对女性在社会中的代表性的理解。
Do ministers face gender discrimination in their career paths after entering presidential cabinets? Departing from past studies, which find little evidence of gender discrimination in more established democracies in Europe and the Americas, we argue that political experience can have a gendered effect on cabinet careers in newer democracies outside the West. Using fixed effects and matching designs, we analyze original data on the careers of 1,374 ministers from all major presidential democracies in Asia. Investigating the patterns of “cabinet promotions,” where ministers transfer from their initial cabinet appointment to a higher-prestige post, we confirm the null direct effect of gender in this new context. However, we also find important gender differences based on political experience, which helps women’s upward mobility in cabinets more than men. The finding that pathways to higher office differ by gender adds to our understanding of women’s representation in society.
05 党派性是参与的原因，而非结果
【题目】
Partisanship as Cause, Not Consequence, of Participation
【作者】
Eli G. Rau
【摘要】
在多数民主制国家，认同某一政党的公民比无党派人士更有可能参与投票。但为什么会出现这种情况呢？是像政治学习和认知失调的杰出模型所假设的那样，投票促进了党派性？还是像表达性投票模型和社会认同理论所认为的那样，党派性鼓励投票？我引入了党派性责任的概念，以描述党派社会身份在投票决定中的作用，并对党派性和投票之间的关系进行了新的实证检验。我利用智利独特的制度安排，以断点回归法确定了因果关系的方向，并且我实施了一个带有行为结果的新的调查设计，以确定因果机制。来自美国的数据证实了主要的研究结果在智利之外也有适用性。选举参与并不产生党派性。相反，党派性动员了选民：它增加了投票的表达性利益，并生成了支持自己党派团体的责任感。
In most democracies, citizens who identify with a political party are more likely than non-partisans to turn out to vote. But why is this the case? Does voting foster partisanship, as prominent models of political learning and cognitive dissonance postulate? Or does partisanship encourage voting, as expressive voting models and social identity theory suggest? I introduce the concept of partisan duty to capture the role of partisan social identities in the turnout decision and present new empirical tests of the relationship between partisanship and voting. I leverage a unique institutional arrangement in Chile to establish the direction of causality with a regression discontinuity, and I implement a novel survey design with behavioral outcomes to identify causal mechanisms. Data from the US confirm that the main findings generalize beyond Chile. Electoral participation does not generate partisanship. Instead, partisanship mobilizes voters: it increases the expressive benefits to voting and generates a sense of duty to support one’s partisan group.
Volume 55 - Issue 7 - June 2022
01 在性别和阶级的交叉点：瑞典新获得选举权的妇女是如何被动员起来的？
【题目】
At the Intersection of Gender and Class: How Were Newly Enfranchised Women Mobilized in Sweden?
【作者】
Mona Morgan-Collins and Grace Natusch
【摘要】
获得选举权之后，社会最底层的妇女是如何被动员起来的？新获得选举权的妇女在投票时面临诸多障碍，对于工人阶级的妇女来说，情况尤其如此。我们建立理论，认为与工人阶级男性或特权阶级相比，工人阶级女性更有可能通过与同阶层邻居的联系获得公民态度和信息。工人阶级妇女的典型职业和家庭责任为当地网络提供了最多的机会、动力和需求，同时限制了她们像其他社会群体那样通过外出务工或自愿结社方式以获取政治资源的机会。利用两次世界大战期间，瑞典一个中型工业城市的个人投票记录的原始数据集，我们采用了双重差分设计，将近邻效应与个人层面的混杂因素隔离开来。与我们的论点一致，我们发现邻居的阶级同质性提高了工人阶级妇女的投票率，但没有提高特权阶级和工人阶级男性的投票率。
How were the most underprivileged women mobilized after suffrage? Newly enfranchised women faced a multitude of barriers to voting, and this was especially the case for working-class women. We theorize that working-class women were more likely to acquire civic attitudes and information through ties with neighbors of the same class than working-class men or privileged classes. Working-class women’s typical employment and domestic responsibilities provided the most opportunities, motivation, and need for local networks, while limiting the opportunities to acquire political resources via outside employment or voluntary associations typically available to other social groups. Utilizing an original dataset of individual voting records in a midsized industrial city during interwar period in Sweden, we employ a difference in-differences design that isolates neighbor effects from confounders at the individual level. Consistent with our argument, we find that class homogeneity of neighbors enhanced working-class women’s turnout, but not that of privileged classes and working-class men.
02 被精英背叛：腐败如何放大经济衰退的政治影响
【题目】
Betrayed by the Elites: How Corruption Amplifies the Political Effects of Recessions
【作者】
Carlos Sanz, Albert Sole-Olle, and Pilar Sorribas-Navarro
【摘要】
我们研究腐败是否会放大经济危机的政治影响。利用西班牙市级数据和双重差分策略，我们发现大衰退期间（2008年-2015年）的地方失业冲击加剧了政治碎片化。与没有政治腐败历史的城市相比，这种影响在有渎职行为的城市中要大四倍。以省和人口阶层的固定效应为条件，没有迹象表明存在不同的前趋势，从而支持了这一证据。我们还发现，失业和腐败的相互作用损害了两个传统的主要政党，而特别有利于左翼的新政党（“我们可以”党）。
We investigate whether corruption amplifies the political effects of economic crises. Using Spanish municipal-level data and a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that local unemployment shocks experienced during the Great Recession (2008–2015) increased political fragmentation. This effect was four times larger in municipalities exposed to malfeasance than in municipalities without a history of political corruption. We bolster this evidence by showing that, conditional on province and population strata fixed effects, there is no evidence of differential pre-trends. We also find that the interaction of unemployment and corruption harms the two traditional main parties and benefits especially the new party on the left (Podemos).
03 工人阶级社会地位的下降？1987年-2017年8个西方国家的矛盾证据
【题目】
A Decline in the Social Status of the Working Class? Conflicting Evidence for 8 Western Countries, 1987–2017
【作者】
Daniel Oesch and Nathalie Vigna
【摘要】
政治学家们的共识是，在过去的几十年里，低技能工人的主观社会地位有所下降，而工人阶级的这种地位下降被认为促成了激进右翼的崛起。我们通过追踪欧洲和美国不同社会阶层的主观地位的演变来研究这一主张的微观基础。我们使用了1987-2017年国际社会调查计划组织的所有可用的调查轮次，并用2002年-2016年的欧洲社会调查重复了结果。虽然各地的非技术工人都认为他们的地位低于中产阶级成员，但我们发现，随着时间的推移，他们的主观社会地位没有出现相对或绝对的下降。在20世纪90年代和2010年到2019年期间，非技术工人处于地位等级的底层。我们的研究结果向那种认为工人的主观社会地位下降是激进右翼崛起的主要动力的说法提出了质疑。
The consensus view among political scientists is that the subjective social status of low-skilled workers has declined over the last decades, and this status loss of the working class is seen as contributing to the rise of the radical right. We examine the micro-foundation of this claim by tracing the evolution of subjective status for different social classes in Europe and the US. We use all available survey rounds of the International Social Survey Programme 1987–2017 and replicate findings with the European Social Survey 2002–2016. While unskilled workers perceive their status to be lower than members of the middle class everywhere, we find no relative or absolute fall in their subjective social status over time. Unskilled workers were at the bottom of the status hierarchy in the 1990s and 2010s. Our findings throw doubt on the narrative that sees workers’ falling subjective social status as a prominent driver behind the rise of the radical right.
04 （非）自然灾害：灾难救济中的选举周期
【题目】
(Un)Natural Disasters: Electoral Cycles in Disaster Relief
【作者】
Alicia Cooperman
【摘要】
紧急支出通常不受竞选期限制和采购准则的约束，这使得它对投机政客很有吸引力，而自然灾害被视为政治交易周期之外的事情。然而，干旱时常发生却很难衡量，因此政治家可以利用自由裁量权来获得选举利益。本文分析了选举周期、任期限制、以及围绕巴西东北部市政干旱宣言的党派目标。两个外生性来源(降雨冲击、选举日历)隔离了非气候因素对干旱声明的影响。我发现引发救济的干旱宣言更有可能在市长选举年发布。如果在任者在降雨量低于甚至高于平均水平时，于选举年宣布干旱，他们将更有可能赢得连任。调查结果与采访一致，表明选民奖励有能力的市长，而市长用救济换取选票。这项研究强调了分配政治和环境政治之间的相互作用，由于气候变化，这种相互作用产生了越来越多的后果。
Emergency spending is often exempt from campa5ign period restrictions and procurement guidelines, making it attractive for opportunistic politicians, but natural disasters are seen as outside political business cycles. However, droughts are frequent but challenging to measure, so politicians can leverage discretion for electoral gain. This paper analyzes electoral cycles, term limits, and partisan targeting around municipal drought declaration in Northeast Brazil. Two sources of exogeneity (rainfall shocks, electoral calendar) isolate the effect of non-climatic factors on drought declarations. I find that drought declarations, which trigger relief, are more likely in mayoral election years. Incumbents are more likely to win re-election if they declare a drought in the election year, during below or even above average rainfall. The results are consistent with interviews suggesting voters reward competent mayors and mayors trade relief for votes. This study highlights the interaction between distributive and environmental politics, which has increasing consequences due to climate change.
05 制度、气候变化和长期决策的基础
【题目】
Institutions, Climate Change, and the Foundations of Long-Term Policymaking
【作者】
Jared J. Finnegan
【摘要】
许多政策问题需要为了将来的利益而在今天采取代价高昂的行动。本文以气候变化为例，考察了两种制度——选举规则和利益集团调解——如何构建气候变化的分配政治，从而推动高收入民主国家气候“政策投资”的变化。比例选举规则增加了选举的安全性，允许政客向选民强加短期成本。工业和国家之间的合作使政府能够补偿输家，消除对政策变化的有组织的反对。此外，这两项制度的联合存在产生了互补性，加强了它们的独立效果，将各国推向不同的气候政治轨道。关于气候政策紧缩的最新数据为这些论点提供了实证支持。公共关系和利益集团一致的国家有最高水平的政策紧缩，并向消费者分配更高的成本。这项分析指出了因果机制，这些机制应该为应对一系列更普遍的长期挑战制定政策。
Many policy problems require taking costly action today for future benefits. Examining the case of climate change, this paper examines how two institutions—electoral rules and interest group intermediation—structure the distributional politics of climate change and as a result, drive variation in climate “policy investments” across the high-income democracies. Proportional electoral rules increase electoral safety, allowing politicians to impose short-term costs on voters. Concertation between industry and the state enables governments to compensate losers, defusing organized opposition to policy change. Moreover, the joint presence of both institutions generates complementarities that reinforce their independent effects, pushing countries onto different climate politics trajectories. Newly available data on climate policy stringency provide empirical support for the arguments. Countries with PR and interest group concertation have the highest levels of policy stringency and distribute higher costs toward consumers. The analysis points to causal mechanisms that should structure policy responses to a more general set of long-term challenges.
06 政变失败后会发生什么？识别和削弱内部敌人
【题目】
What Happens When Coups Fail? The Problem of Identifying and Weakening the Enemy Within
【作者】
Josef Woldense
【摘要】
统治者应对危机的能力对于威权政体的持久性至关重要。然而，应对机制——统治者应对危机的实际管理策略——在很大程度上被视为一个黑箱。这项研究在解决这个问题上迈出了一步，研究了统治者如何利用他们的任命权来管理政变失败后的危机。我认为，这一时期的主要挑战是统治者无法识别反对者并处理他们。为应对这一挑战，他们故意让外围官员进入政权中心，以稀释并最终削弱他们所面对的无形敌人。通过使用一个关于埃塞俄比亚34年来中高级官员任命的新数据集，我发现，在1960年的政变未遂后，统治者在很大程度上依赖外部官员，而在政变前后，他从来没有这样做过。
The ruler’s ability to cope with crises is critical for authoritarian durability. Yet, the coping mechanism—the actual management strategies by which rulers confront crises—is largely treated as a black box. This study takes a step in addressing this problem by examining how rulers use their appointment powers to manage the crisis that is the aftermath of failed coups. I argue that the principle challenge of this period is that rulers cannot identify the opposition and to cope, they deliberately infuse the center of the regime with officials from the periphery to dilute and ultimately weaken the invisible enemy they confront. Using a novel dataset on the appointments of mid and high level officials over the course of 34 years in Ethiopia, I find that the ruler relied considerably on outside officials following the failed coup in 1960 in ways he never did before or after the event.
Volume 55 - Issue 8 - July 2022
01 为民主挺身而出？解释公民对民主分权制衡的支持
【题目】
Standing up for Democracy? Explaining Citizens’ Support for Democratic Checks and Balances
【作者】
Honorata Mazepus, Dimiter Toshkov
【摘要】
选举的赢家和输家在保护民主制度方面有不同的利害关系。我们通过提供新的证据，证明了党派关系和经济表现对支持分权制衡，及接受分权制衡受到损害方面产生的影响。利用来自26个欧洲国家的调查数据，我们发现，与落选政党关系密切的选民比其他公民更支持分权制衡。我们还发现，对经济的满意度越高，对制衡的支持度就越低。我们在乌克兰的实验表明，执政党的支持者和反对者对一项可能侵犯司法独立的改革有不同的评价。那些反对者认为这样的改革不太可接受，也并不正当。我们再次发现，经济表现的改善会导致人们对司法改革更高的接受度。我们的结论证实，公民对分权制衡的支持是有条件的和不稳定的。
Winners and losers of elections have different stakes in protecting democratic institutions. We provide new evidence for the effects of partisanship and economic performance on support for checks and balances and acceptance of their infringement. Using survey data from 26 European countries, we show that voters who feel close to a political party that lost the elections support checks and balances significantly more than other citizens. We also find that higher satisfaction with the economy is associated with lower support for checks and balances. Our experiment in Ukraine shows that supporters and opponents of the governing party have divergent evaluations of a reform potentially infringing on the independence of the judiciary. Those in opposition find such reforms less acceptable and justified. Again, we find that improved economic performance leads to higher acceptance of judicial reform. Our results confirm that citizens’ support for checks and balances is contingent and volatile.
02 重新审视现代化对女性政治家支持度的影响：女性政治赋权的作用
【题目】
Revisiting the Impact of Modernization on Support for Women Politicians: The Role of Women’s Political Empowerment
【作者】
Anja Neundorf，Rosalind Shorrocks
【摘要】
我们研究了社会现代化和女性政治赋权在培育公民对女政治家支持度方面的作用。通过对116个国家微观和宏观的纵向数据进行全球分析，我们发现，只有社会现代化和女性政治赋权这两个因素都存在，才会对支持女性参政产生积极影响。对于经历过社会现代化或女性政治赋权，但没有经历两者的公民来说，我们看不到这种正相关关系关系。至关重要的是，在分析当前的社会和政治环境，以及公民在成长期所经历的环境时，这些模式仍然适用。我们认为，要培育对女性参政的支持态度，社会变革和政治变革缺一不可。
We examine the role of societal modernization and women’s political empowerment in generating support for women politicians amongst citizens. Using a global analysis of 116 countries with a new dataset of micro- and macro-level longitudinal data, we show that societal modernization and women’s political empowerment only have positive effects on support for women in politics when the other is also present. For citizens who experienced either societal modernization or women’s political empowerment, but not both, we do not see this positive relationship. Crucially, these patterns hold when analysing the current social and political context, as well as the context experienced by citizens during their formative years. We argue that both social and political changes are required to develop supportive attitudes towards women in politics.
03 选民如何应对货币危机：来自土耳其的证据
【题目】
How Voters Respond to Currency Crises: Evidence From Turkey
【作者】
David A. Steinberg
【摘要】
越来越多的文献表明，国际贸易和移民冲击会影响个人的政治态度，但人们对国际金融冲击如何影响公众观点知之甚少。这项研究考察了一种流行的国际金融冲击——货币危机——是如何塑造大众政治态度的。我认为，货币危机降低了普通公民对现任政府的支持。我还预计，选民对自己钱包的担忧会影响他们对货币危机的反应。来自土耳其的原始调查数据支持这些论点。利用调查窗口期间货币价值的外生变化，我表明货币贬值大大降低了政府支持率。这种效应在受贬值负面影响更大的个体中更强，同时这一效应受到个体对其个人经济状况看法的调节。这一证据表明，国际金融冲击可以强烈影响普通选民的意见，这为钱包理论提供了进一步的支持。
A burgeoning literature shows that international trade and migration shocks influence individuals’ political attitudes, but relatively little is known about how international financial shocks impact public opinion. This study examines how one prevalent type of international financial shock—currency crises—shapes mass political attitudes. I argue that currency crises reduce average citizens’ support for incumbent governments. I also expect voters’ concerns about their own pocketbooks to influence their response to currency crises. Original survey data from Turkey support these arguments. Exploiting exogenous variation in the currency’s value during the survey window, I show that currency depreciations strongly reduce support for the government. This effect is stronger among individuals that are more negatively affected by depreciation, and it is moderated by individuals’ perceptions of their personal economic situation. This evidence suggests that international financial shocks can strongly influence the opinions of average voters, and it provides further support for pocketbook theories.
04 共谋、拉拢或逃避：中美洲贩毒暴力的政治
【题目】
Collusion, Co-Optation, or Evasion: The Politics of Drug Trafficking Violence in Central America
【作者】
Laura R. Blume
【摘要】
为什么毒贩有时决定使用暴力，但其他时候表现出克制？基于近期关于毒品暴力政治的研究，本文探讨了中美洲贩毒组织的策略对其使用暴力的影响。我认为腐败、选举竞争和安全机构的政治化这三个相互关联的政治因素，共同决定了人口贩子和国家之间将会出现的关系类型。这种关系反过来又决定了该国毒贩使用的主要策略。根据在中美洲加勒比海沿岸主要转运点进行的两年多的比较民族志实地调查，我展示了洪都拉斯的拉拢策略如何导致了高水平的暴力，哥斯达黎加的逃避策略如何产生了中等水平的暴力，尼加拉瓜的共谋策略如何产生了最低水平的与毒品相关的暴力。
Why do drug traffickers sometimes decide to use violence, but other times demonstrate restraint? Building on recent work on the politics of drug violence, this article explores how Central American drug trafficking organizations’ strategies impact their use of violence. I argue that three inter-related political factors—corruption, electoral competition, and the politicization of the security apparatus—collectively determine the type of relationship between traffickers and the state that will emerge. That relationship, in turn, determines the primary strategy used by traffickers in that country. Drawing on over two years of comparative ethnographic fieldwork in key transshipment points along the Caribbean coast of Central America, I show how co-optation strategies in Honduras have resulted in high levels of violence, evasion strategies in Costa Rica have produced moderate levels of violence, and collusion strategies in Nicaragua have generated the lowest levels of drug-related violence.
05 移民问题的道德化:美国和丹麦的政治框架、道德信念和两极分化
【题目】
Moralizing Immigration: Political Framing, Moral Conviction, and Polarization in the United States and Denmark
【作者】
Kristina B. Simonsen，Bart Bonikowski
【摘要】
在关于移民的政治话语中，充满道德色彩的言辞是司空见惯的，但学者们尚未研究其对公众在移民问题上的分歧有何影响。为了弥补这一差距，我们在美国和丹麦这两个反移民言论突出的国家进行了预先登记的调查实验。我们证明，暴露于道德化信息会导致受访者对他们现有的移民观点给予更大的道德权重，并变得更加厌恶政治领导人，同时，在美国，人们也会更加厌恶持相反信仰的社交伙伴。这表明政治道德化会导致道德冲突和情感两极分化。然而，我们没有证据表明道德框架产生了态度上的两极分化——也就是说，更极端的移民观点。我们的研究有助于理解即使在态度稳定的情况下，反移民政治的强度也有所增加。而通过将研究焦点从党派关系转向现有议题分歧的道德化，我们的研究也为这也为情感极化的比较研究提供了一个可能的途径。
Morally charged rhetoric is commonplace in political discourse on immigration but scholars have not examined how it affects divisions over the issue among the public. To address this gap, we employ preregistered survey experiments in two countries where anti-immigration rhetoric has been prominent: the United States and Denmark. We demonstrate that exposure to moralized messages leads respondents to place greater moral weight on their existing immigration opinions and become more averse to political leaders and, in the United States, social interaction partners who espouse opposite beliefs. This suggests that political moralization contributes to moral conflict and affective polarization. We find no evidence, however, that moral framing produces attitudinal polarization—that is, more extreme immigration opinions. Our study helps make sense of the heightened intensity of antiimmigrant politics even when attitudes are stable. It also suggests a promising avenue for comparative research on affective polarization by shifting the focus from partisanship to the moralization of existing issue disagreements.
翻 译：孙 滢、王智灏
校 对：孙 滢、王智灏
相关阅读：
国际顶刊 |《英国政治科学杂志》第52卷（2022年）第2期
编辑：焦 磊
一审：郭见田
二审：李璐雅