国际顶刊 |《美国政治科学杂志》第66卷（2022年）第3期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了American Journal of Political Science（AJPS, 《美国政治科学杂志》）2022年第66卷第3期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
American Journal of Political Science（AJPS, 《美国政治科学杂志》）致力于在公民身份、治理和政治的知识和理解方面取得重大进展，并致力于提高政治学研究的公共价值。作为美国中西部政治学协会的官方期刊，AJPS发表政治学所有主要领域的研究，包括美国政治、公共政策、国际关系、比较政治、政治方法和政治理论。该刊寻求对政治学任何子领域的重要理论问题、经验问题或方法论的学术知识有突出贡献的稿件。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=4.503，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第21（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Re-Assessing Elite-Public Gaps in Political Behavior
重新评估精英与公众在政治行为中的差距
Decentralization Can Increase Cooperation among Public Officials
分权可以增加政府官员之间的合作
Racial Identity, Group Consciousness, and Attitudes: A Framework for Assessing Multiracial Self-Classification
种族认同、族群意识与态度：一个评估多种族者自我分类的框架
The Unequal Distribution of Opportunity: A National Audit Study of Bureaucratic Discrimination in Primary School Access
机会分配不均：小学入学中官僚歧视的国家审计研究
What Was the Point of Equality?
平等的重点何在？
Dynamic Policy Sabotage
动态的政策破坏
Capital Meets Democracy: The Impact of Franchise Extension on Sovereign Bond Markets
资本与民主：特许权扩展对主权债券市场的影响
Change We Can Believe In: Structural and Content Dynamics within Belief Networks
我们可以相信的变化：信念网络中的结构和内容动态
When Do UN Peacekeeping Operations Implement Their Mandates?
联合国维和部队何时执行其被授权的任务？
Qualitative Imputation of Missing Potential Outcomes
缺失潜在结果的定性估算
Channels for Influence or Maps of Behavior? A Field Experiment on Social Networks and Cooperation
影响渠道或行为地图？有关社交网络与合作的实地试验
Party Nomination Strategies in List Proportional Representation Systems
名单比例代表制中的政党提名策略
Public Money Talks Too: How Public Campaign Financing Degrades Representation
公共资金也发声：公共竞选融资如何降低代表性
Making Unequal Democracy Work? The Effects of Income on Voter Turnout in Northern Italy
使不平等的民主运转起来？收入对意大利北部选民投票率的影响
Interactive Justice in Transitional Justice: A Dynamic Framework
过渡司法中的互动公正：一个动态框架
The Nature of Affective Polarization: Disentangling Policy Disagreement from Partisan Identity
情感极化的本质：使政策分歧摆脱党派认同
PART 3
精选译文
01 重新评估精英与公众在政治行为中的差距
【题目】
Re-Assessing Elite-Public Gaps in Political Behavior
【作者】
Joshua D.Kertzer
【摘要】
政治学家经常批评政治研究中的心理学方法，理由是许多心理学理论是在大学生或公众的便利样本上发展起来的，而许多最重要的政治决策却是由那些与普通公民存在系统差异的精英所做出的。本文提出了一个思考精英和公众之间差异的总体框架，展示了对162组关于政治精英和公众的配对实验的元分析结果，以及对43年间关于外交政策问题的12波历史精英和公众民意数据的分析。研究发现，政治学家既夸大了决策中精英与公众差距的大小，也误解了精英与公众政治态度差距的决定因素，其中许多造成差距的因素是由于基本的构成差异，而不是出于精英们在特定领域的专长。
Political scientists often criticize psychological approaches to the study of politics on the grounds that many psychological theories were developed on convenience samples of college students or members of the mass public, whereas many of the most important decisions in politics are made by elites, who are presumed to differ systematically from ordinary citizens. This paper proposes an overarching framework for thinking about differences between elites and masses, presenting the results of a meta-analysis of 162 paired treatments from paired experiments on political elites and mass publics as well as an analysis of 12 waves of historical elite and mass public opinion data on foreign policy issues over a 43 year period. It finds political scientists both overstate the magnitude of elite-public gaps in decision-making, and misunderstand the determinants of elite-public gaps in political attitudes, many of which are due to basic compositional differences rather than to elites’ domain-specific expertise.
02 分权可以增加政府官员之间的合作
【题目】
Decentralization Can Increase Cooperation among Public Officials
【作者】
Adriana Molina-Garzón, Tara Grillos, Alan Zarychta, Krister P. Andersson
【摘要】
政府官员之间的集体行动对有效提供大量社会服务是必要的，但对于如何通过政策改革来促进这一点，我们知之甚少。本文比较了在洪都拉斯分权以及集中管理的城市中公职人员之间的合作。利用卫生部门改革的准实验，结合行为博弈和社会网络调查，作者发现分权与更好的合作相关。当他们能够沟通时，分权管理城市的卫生部门工作人员比集中管理城市的同行对公共利益的贡献更大。这种合作行为的增强，部分源于分权式改革在不同层级的政府之间产生了更多的互动和更强的联系。研究结果表明，分权体制改革有利于重新配置公共组织之间的社会互动模式，这是发展中国家行政能力的一个重要组成部分。
Collective action among public officials is necessary for the effective delivery of many social services, but relatively little is known about how it can be fostered through policy reforms. In this article, we compare cooperation among public officials within decentralized versus centrally-administered municipalities in Honduras. Leveraging a quasi-experiment in health sector reform, coupled with behavioral games and social network surveys, we find that decentralization is associated with greater cooperation. When they are able to communicate, health sector workers in decentralized municipalities con-tribute more to a public good than their centrally-administered counterparts. This increase in cooperative behavior results in part from the decentralization reform engendering greater numbers of interactions and stronger ties across different levels of government. These findings indicate that institutional reforms like decentralization can favorably reconfigure patterns of social interactions across public organizations, which is an important component of administrative capacity in developing countries.
03 种族认同、族群意识与态度：一个评估多种族者自我归类的框架
【题目】
Racial Identity, Group Consciousness, and Attitudes: A Framework for Assessing Multiracial Self-Classification
【作者】
Lauren D. Davenport, Shanto Iyengar, Sean J. Westwood
【摘要】
多种族人群是美国增长最快的种族群体。他们的崛起标志着对所谓次血统法则的偏离，但人们对多种族标签的社会政治意义却知之甚少。在此，作者构建了一个理论框架来理解多种族人群的种族群体认同、关联命运与族群态度。通过1200多名多种族成年人的全国民意调查，作者比较了美国最大的两个多种族群体（亚裔白人混血和黑白混血）的身份、态度特征及构成他们的单一种族群体。作者发现，虽然亚裔白人混血和黑白混血经常将自身与其种族构成区分开，但总体上，双重种族成员身份的观点表明他们对少数种族的团结和（或）影响更大。这些发现表明，在具有种族性质的政治问题上，这些多种族群体的成员可能更倾向于与其种族构成中的少数种族而非与白人保持一致。
Multiracial self-classifiers are the fastest-growing racial population in the United States. While their rise signals a departure from norms of hypodescent, little is known about the sociopolitical meanings attached to multiracial labels. Here, we develop a theoretical framework for understanding multiracials’ sense of racial group identity, linked fate, and racial attitudes. Examining a national opinion survey that samples more than 1200 multiracial adults, we compare the identity and attitudinal profiles of the two largest multiracial groups in the United States—White-Asians and White-Blacks—with those of their component monoracial groups. We find that while White-Asians and White-Blacks often distinguish themselves from their component races, on balance, the assertion of dual racial membership signals greater solidarity and/or affect toward the minority race. These findings suggest that members of these multiracial populations are likely to align themselves relatively more with their minority background than with Whites on political issues that are racial in nature.
04 机会分配不均：小学入学中官僚歧视的国家审计研究
【题目】
The Unequal Distribution of Opportunity: A National Audit Study of Bureaucratic Discrimination in Primary School Access
【作者】
Asmus Leth Olsen, Jonas Høgh Kyhse-Andersen, Donald Moynihan
【摘要】
行政人员可以通过两种机制在提供公共服务时运用其自由裁量权进行歧视。他们做出分配公共服务的决定，这就使他们能通过排他分配进行歧视。他们还可以通过将行政负担转嫁给外部群体进行歧视，进而使官僚程序更加繁重。然而之前的审计研究仅考察了行政负担的使用，本文则提供了两种机制的证据。作者向所有丹麦小学（N=1698）发送了一份来自内群体（典型的丹麦名字）和外群体（穆斯林名字）父亲的申请，询问是否可能将他的孩子送到该校。虽然两组的回复率相似，但作者发现通过排他分配的歧视存在较大差异：丹麦人在25%的情况下得到了明确接受，而穆斯林只有15%，且穆斯林额外还面临着更大的行政负担。
Administrators can use their discretion to discriminate in the provision of public services via two mechanisms. They make decisions to allocate public services, allowing them to discriminate via allocative exclusion. They can also discriminate by targeting administrative burdens toward outgroups to make bureaucratic processes more onerous. While prior audit studies only examine the use of administrative burdens, we offer evidence of both mechanisms. We sent are quest to all Danish primary schools (N=1,698) from an ingroup (a typical Danish name) and outgroup (a Muslim name) father asking if it was possible to move his child to the school. While both groups received similar response rates, we find large differences in discrimination via allocative exclusion: Danes received a clear acceptance 25% of the time, compared to 15% for Muslims. Muslims also faced greater administrative burdens in the form of additional questions.
05 平等的重点何在？
【题目】
What Was the Point of Equality?
【作者】
Teresa M.Bejan
【摘要】
政治理论家经常把17世纪的英国和平等派（Levellers）作为平等主义观点的起源。然而当平等派活跃之时，人在本质上是“平等的”（equal）这一说法早已司空见惯。为什么这一与社会等级体系相调和的长期存在的虔诚，在平等派这里却突然有效起来？受伊丽莎白·安德森（Elizabeth Anderson）的启发，本文探讨了平等（equality）及相关的平等（parity）概念对平等派而言意味着什么，以及他们所关注的“重点”是什么。作者认为，平等派的主要成就是在现有的自然平等（natural equality）语境中纳入了一个极具争议的（权利、尊严与价值等社会意义的）生而平等（natural parity）的前提。这表明，现代基本平等是两个潜在矛盾原则的产物。这反过来对理论家如何理解当今平等主义运动的“重点”产生了重要的规范性、历史性和概念性的影响。
Political theorists often turn to seventeenth-century England and the Levellers as sources of egalitarian insight. Yet by the time the Levellers were active, the claim that human beings were “equal” by nature was commonplace. Why, in Leveller hands, did a long-standing piety consistent with social hierarchy became suddenly effectual? Inspired by Elizabeth Anderson, this article explores what equality—and the related concept of parity—meant for the Levellers, and what “the point,” as they saw it, was. I argue that the Levellers’ key achievement was subsuming a highly controversial premise of natural parity within the existing language of natural equality. This suggests that modern basic equality is the product of two, potentially contradictory, principles. This, in turn, has important normative, as well as historical and conceptual, implications for how theorists understand “the point” of equality for egalitarian movements today.
06 动态的政策破坏
【题目】
Dynamic Policy Sabotage
【作者】
Germán Gieczewski, Christopher Li
【摘要】
民主政治的一个共同特点是，反对派可能会破坏执政党所提出政策的实施。本文从理论上分析了反对派对破坏的最佳利用，以及破坏的发展如何影响执政者的议程。作者认为，当一项拟议的政策得到公众的适度支持时，执政者将试图尽早通过该政策，而反对派则会在下一次选举临近时加大破坏力度。相比之下，执政者将广受欢迎的政策推迟到任期结束前通过，这些政策则不会受到破坏。最后，破坏威胁会劝服执政者放弃不受欢迎的提案。在扩展部分，作者展示了其结果如何在不同选举制度下进行比较，以及立法障碍如何被用作破坏的替代或补充。
A common feature of democratic politics is that the opposition may sabotage the implementation of policies put forth by the incumbent party. This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the opposition’s optimal use of sabotage and of how the prospect of sabotage conditions the incumbent’s agenda. We show that, when a proposed policy enjoys moderate public support, the incumbent will attempt to pass it as early as possible, and the opposition will exert increasing effort to sabotage it as the next election approaches. In contrast, the incumbent delays the passage of highly popular policies until near the end of her term, and these are not subject to sabotage. Finally, the threat of sabotage persuades the incumbent to abandon unpopular proposals. In extensions, we show how our results compare under different electoral institutions, and how legislative obstruction can be used as an alternative or complement to sabotage.
07 资本与民主：特许权扩展对主权债券市场的影响
【题目】
Capital Meets Democracy: The Impact of Franchise Extension on Sovereign Bond Markets
【作者】
Aditya Dasgupta, Daniel Ziblatt
【摘要】
通过赋予贫困选民政治权利，民主政治机构是否会对以金融资本形式持有的集中财富构成风险？本文从1800年至1920年间主权债券市场对特许权扩展的反应中吸取了教训。如果像民主化的再分配理论所认为的，即特许权的扩展把政治权力从经济和金融精英转移到工人手中，那么这应该导致一个国家的债券市场价格下跌（收益率上升）。本文利用各国特许权改革的时间差，提供了特许权扩展大幅增加了投资者持有主权债务所需的溢价的证据，反映了投资者对违约的担忧。然而，随着时间的推移，债券市场对特许权扩展的反应会逐渐钝化，这种模式可能是由不平等的结构和战略性采用保护金融利益的制度所造成的。
By giving political rights to poor voters, do democratic political institutions pose a risk to concentrated wealth held in the form of financial capital? This article draws lessons from the reaction of sovereign bond markets to franchise extensions between 1800 and 1920. If franchise extension transferred political power from economic and financial elites to workers, as redistributive theories of democratization suggest, then this should have resulted in a fall in the market price (increase in the yield) of a country’s bonds. Exploiting the asynchronous timing of franchise reforms across countries, we provide evidence that franchise extension contributed to large increases in the premium demanded by investors to hold sovereign debt, reflecting investor fears of default. However, bond markets became less sensitive to franchise extensions overtime, a pattern potentially due to the structure of inequality and the strategic adoption of institutions which protected financial interests.
08 我们可以相信的变化：信念网络中的结构和内容动态
【题目】
Change We Can Believe In: Structural and Content Dynamics within Belief Networks
【作者】
Nic Fishman, Nicholas T. Davis
【摘要】
学者们使用网络分析探索了大众意识形态的结构属性。本文通过研究时间如何影响不同人群（政治知识水平高和低的人群）的信念网络属性，整合了既有研究中两个重要但却被忽视的特征。作者发现：（1）知识水平高的人与知识水平低的人之间的信任网络密度呈不对称增长；（2）无论调查时间或群体如何，象征性偏好对信念网络都更为重要；相反，在政治知识水平高的人群中，政策信念的中心性会随着时间的推移而增加；（3）信念的中心性与它在其他信念中解释的变化量无关。棘手之处在于，后一发现指出了使用康沃斯（Converse）所提出信念系统理论的术语来描述信念网络的问题——这种脱节似乎源于康沃斯的个人理论与基于群体属性的网络分析之间的不匹配。
Scholars have used network analysis to explore the structural properties of mass ideology. This article incorporates two important, though ignored features in past research by investigating how time shapes the properties of belief networks for different populations of people—those who exhibit high and low levels of political knowledge. We find that (1) belief network density increases asymmetrically among people with high relative to low knowledge; (2) symbolic preferences are more central to belief networks irrespective of survey timing or population; in contrast, policy beliefs exhibit some increase in centrality over time among the politically knowledgeable; and (3) a belief’s centrality is unrelated to the amount of change it explains in other beliefs. Troublingly, this latter finding presents problems for describing belief networks using the vernacular of Conversian belief systems—a disconnect that seems grounded in the mismatch between Converse’s individual-level theory and network analysis’ population-based properties.
09 联合国维和部队何时执行其被授权的任务？
【题目】
When Do UN Peacekeeping Operations Implement Their Mandates?
【作者】
Robert A. Blair, Jessica Di Salvatore, Hannah M. Smidt
【摘要】
联合国维和行动（PKOs）在什么条件下执行其被授权的任务？预计当代维和行动将在冲突频发的地区执行更为零散的任务。作者认为这两种趋势——日益零散的任务、频繁在冲突暴力中执行任务，加剧了阻碍维和部队执行任务的授权和协调问题，可能会破坏其在联合国安理会、维和部队派遣国和东道国政府眼中的合法性。结合在非洲PKO任务的新数据集（1998年至2016年）并使用工具变量和双向固定效应模型，作者发现授权任务的零散程度和任务执行呈负相关，特别是和平建设行动。持续的暴力事件也与建设和平任务的实施呈负相关，但与安全任务无关。本文认为，这可能是由于政府和叛乱分子实施暴力活动的抵消效应所致，因为维和行动更能有效地应对后者。
Under what conditions do UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) implement the tasks in their mandates? Contemporary PKOs are expected to fulfill increasingly fragmented mandates in active conflict zones. We argue that these two trends—increasingly fragmented mandates, increasingly implemented amidst violence—exacerbate delegation and coordination problems that hinder PKOs from pursuing mandated tasks, potentially undermining their legitimacy in the eyes of the Security Council, troop-contributing countries, and host governments. Combining new data sets on PKO activities and mandates in Africa (1998–2016) and using instrumental variables and two-way fixed effects models, we find that mandate fragmentation is negatively correlated with mandate implementation, especially for peacebuilding tasks. Ongoing violence is also negatively correlated with implementation of peacebuilding tasks, but not with security tasks. We show that this is likely due to the offsetting effects of violence perpetrated by governments and rebels, as PKOs are better equipped to respond to the latter.
10 对缺失潜在结果的定性插补
【题目】
Qualitative Imputation of Missing Potential Outcomes
【作者】
Alexander Coppock, Dipin Kaur
【摘要】
作者提出了一个对定性因果推论进行荟萃分析的框架，并将定性反事实调查与定量因果推理文献中极端值范围的方法相结合。定性反事实分析使用观察到的结果和辅助信息来推断如果将处理方法设置到不同的水平将会发生什么。插补缺失的潜在结果有些困难，当其失败时，作者可以在最好和最坏的情况下填补它们。作者将这种方法应用于63个可能在民主化过后经历过渡的真相委员会的案例中，其中8个案例做到了。在进行分析之前，专制复辟的平均处理效应的极端值范围为100个百分点；插补将这些范围的广度缩小到51个百分点。作者通过合计专家调查所收集的对因果效应的看法，将其广度进一步缩小到44个百分点，这进一步验证了作者的方法。
We propose a framework for meta-analysis of qualitative causal inferences. We integrate qualitative counterfactual inquiry with an approach from the quantitative causal inference literature called extreme value bounds. Qualitative counterfactual analysis uses the observed outcome and auxiliary information to infer what would have happened had the treatment been set to a different level. Imputing missing potential outcomes is hard and when it fails, we can fill them in under best- and worst-case scenarios. We apply our approach to 63 cases that could have experienced transitional truth commissions upon democratization, eight of which did. Prior to any analysis, the extreme value bounds around the average treatment effect on authoritarian resumption are 100 percentage points wide; imputation shrinks the width of these bounds to 51 points. We further demonstrate our method by aggregating specialists’ beliefs about causal effects gathered through an expert survey, shrinking the width of the bounds to 44 points.
11 影响渠道或行为地图？有关社交网络与合作的实地试验
【题目】
Channels for Influence or Maps of Behavior? A Field Experiment on Social Networks
and Cooperation
【作者】
Paul Atwell, Noah L. Nathan
【摘要】
发展中国家的社区通常必须合作以自给或者共同生产当地的公共产品。许多人希望社区社交网络能够促进此类合作，但是很少有研究直接观察这些环境中的真实网络。作者收集了加纳北部农村的社交网络数据，以探索社会地位和对社区领导的接近度如何预测对当地公共产品的捐赠。然后，作者实施了一项实地试验，以控制参与者在捐赠前进行交流和施加社会压力的机会。作者找到了明确的证据，证明社交网络中的地位可以预测其合作行为，但是尚未有证据表明沟通可以改善协调或合作，而这与常见的理论预期和实验室所见相反。研究结果表明，进化的、现实生活中的社交网络可以作为社区成员业已形成的行为模式，而不仅仅是作为一种传播社会影响和解决集体行动问题的有效技术。
Communities in developing countries often must cooperate to self-provide or co-produce local public goods. Many expect that community social networks facilitate this cooperation, but few studies directly observe real-life networks in these settings. We collect detailed social network data in rural Northern Ghana to explore how social positions and proximity to community leaders predict donations to a local public good. We then implement a field experiment manipulating participants’ opportunity to communicate and apply social pressure before donating. We find clear evidence that locations in community social networks predict cooperative behavior, but no evidence that communication improves coordination or cooperation, in contrast to common theoretical expectations and laboratory findings. Our results show that evolved, real-life social networks serve as a mapping of community members’ already-engrained behaviors, not only as an active technology through which social influence propagates to solve collective action problems.
12 名单比例代表制中的政党提名策略
【题目】
Party Nomination Strategies in List Proportional Representation Systems
【作者】
Peter Buisseret, Olle Folke, Carlo Prato, Johanna Rickne
【摘要】
在名单比例代表制（PR）中，政党塑造政治选择。作者提出了一种在名单比例代表制中有关政党名单选择和选举的理论。研究结果描述了一个政党如何根据（1）其政策目标和（2）其竞争环境在排名列表中分配质量不一的候选人。作者检验了其对1991年至2014年瑞典地方政治家的预测。尽管政党在所有选票级别上都将较好的候选人分配到较高的级别，但这种模式在具有选举优势且最有可能控制行政部门的政党中最为明显。作者的研究结果对有关候选人选举的传统观点提出挑战，在传统观点中，只有在受到选举激励措施的限制时，政党才会在其提名策略中优先考虑候选人的质量。
In list proportional representation (PR) systems, parties shape political selection. We propose a theory of party list choice and elections in list PR systems. Our results describe how a party allocates candidates of heterogeneous quality across list ranks depending on (1) its policy goals and (2) its competitive environment. We test our predictions on the universe of Swedish local politicians from 1991 to 2014. Although parties assign better candidates to higher ranks at all ballot levels, the pattern is most pronounced among electorally advantaged parties that have the strongest prospect of controlling the executive. Our findings challenge conventional accounts of candidate selection in which parties prioritize candidate quality in their nomination strategies only when constrained by electoral incentives.
13 公共资金也发声：公共竞选融资如何降低代表性
【题目】
Public Money Talks Too: How Public Campaign Financing Degrades Representation
【作者】
Mitchell Kilborn, Arjun Vishwanath
【摘要】
公共竞选融资是像其支持者所说的那样，通过减少政治家对富有捐赠者的依赖来提高代表性，还是通过扩大选举人市场来为极端和非代表性候选人提供选举动力来降低代表性？作者对亚利桑那州、康涅狄格州和缅因州的公共融资计划进行了一项新颖的研究，以确定立法委员的资金状况对其代表选民偏好程度的影响。通过使用多种识别策略，作者发现专门使用公共竞选资金的候选人比非公共资助的候选人更加极端、更不能代表他们所在的选区。作者的发现通过证明用公共资金代替私人竞选捐赠如何能够破坏实质性的代表性，从而为选举改革辩论增添了新的证据。本文还推进了关于制度在回应新的竞选融资结构时如何影响实质代表性和候选人立场的学术研究。
Does public campaign financing improve representation by reducing politicians’ reliance on wealthy donors as advocates claim, or does it worsen representation by expanding the candidate marketplace to give extreme and nonrepresentative candidates an electoral boost? We conduct a novel analysis of public financing programs in Arizona, Connecticut, and Maine to causally identify the effect of a legislator’s funding status on how closely she represents constituent preferences. Using multiple identification strategies, we show that candidates who exclusively use public campaign financing are more extreme and less representative of their districts than nonpublicly financed candidates. Our findings add new evidence to the electoral reform debate by demonstrating how replacing private campaign donations with public financing can actually damage substantive representation. We also advance the scholarship on how institutions affect substantive representation and candidate positioning as they respond to new campaign financing structures.
14 使不平等的民主运转起来？收入对意大利北部选民投票率的影响
【题目】
Making Unequal Democracy Work? The Effects of Income on Voter Turnout in Northern Italy
【作者】
Jerome Schafer, Enrico Cantoni, Giorgio Bellettini, Carlotta Berti Ceroni
【摘要】
在许多民主国家，富人的投票率高于穷人，但是收入的变化会导致选举参与的变化吗？作者使用了将意大利北部一个大城市的十年个人纳税记录和选民登记册相匹配的唯一行政数据来解决这个问题，并记录了几个重要发现。第一，大萧条后相对贫困的公民的收入水平和投票率都呈现出不成比例的下降趋势。第二，作者发现个人收入的变化对参与率有影响，由于收益递减，这种影响一般说来是适度的，但可能会对穷人产生比较重要的影响。第三，作者发现经济危机之下投票率下降加剧了参与者的收入倾斜，这表明收入以及投票率的不平等可能会相互加强。在具有浓厚公民传统和低投票障碍的背景下，作者讨论了这些结果的理论意义。
In many democracies, voter turnout is higher among the rich than the poor. But do changes in income lead to changes in electoral participation? We address this question with unique administrative data matching a decade of individual tax records with voter rolls in a large municipality in northern Italy. We document several important findings.
First, levels of income and turnout both dropped disproportionately among relatively poor citizens following the Great Recession. Second, we show that within-individual changes in income have an effect on participation, which is modest on average due to diminishing returns, but can be consequential among the poor. Third, we find that declining turnout of voters facing economic insecurity has exacerbated the income skew in participation, suggesting that income inequality and turnout inequality may reinforce each other. We discuss the theoretical implications of these results, set in a context with strong civic traditions and low barriers to voting.
15 过渡司法中的互动公正：一个动态框架
【题目】
Interactive Justice in Transitional Justice: A Dynamic Framework
【作者】
Emanuela Ceva, Colleen Murphy
【摘要】
本文提出了一个新的动态框架，用于对过渡司法过程进行规范性评估，该框架能够整合基于互动公正的工具性和非工具性司法评估。互动公正是在制度过程中或通过制度过程实现的，这个过程以适合于人们作为制度角色占有者的身份的方式对待他们。分析过渡司法中的互动公正对于确定在对过渡司法进行关系理解时可能出现的不同司法问题尤为重要。本文的动态框架阐明了在评估过渡司法过程中要满足的不同规范标准，因为这些标准引起或构成动态关系性质的变化。
This article develops a new dynamic framework for the normative evaluation of processes of transitional justice capable of integrating instrumental and noninstrumental justice-based assessments grounded on concerns of “interactive justice.” Interactive justice is realized in or through institutional processes that treat people in ways appropriate to their status as institutional role occupants. Analyzing interactive justice in transitional justice is particularly important to pinpoint the distinct concerns of justice that might arise when employing a relational understanding of transitional justice. Our dynamic framework clarifies the distinct normative standards to meet when evaluating processes of transitional justice in virtue of the qualities of the relationship dynamics they themselves cause or constitute.
16 情感极化的本质：使政策分歧摆脱党派认同
【题目】
The Nature of Affective Polarization: Disentangling Policy Disagreement from Partisan Identity
【作者】
Nicholas Dias, Yphtach Lelkes
【摘要】
民主党人和共和党人显然对对方没有好感。然而，学者们争论的是，政策分歧或党派身份本身是否会引发党际之间的敌意。既有研究证明，党派偏见和人际影响之间的关系是虚假的，这种关系由推测出的政策偏好驱动。相反，作者认为，当各党派在某问题上的立场众所周知时，政策偏好暗示了党派身份。通过具有全国代表性的调查和四个预先注册的实验，作者探究了政策分歧和党派认同对人际影响的效应。研究结果表明，党派身份是情感极化的主要影响机制，而政策偏好在很大程度上是通过传递党派认同信号来发挥作用的。然而，本文的研究结果同样证实了政策分歧本身也会推动人际影响。这表明党派关系反映了对政党的情感依恋，而不仅仅是理性思考的持续记录。
Democrats and Republicans clearly dislike one another. Yet, scholars debate whether policy disagreement or partisan identity, per se, drives interparty animus. Past studies suggest the relationship between partisanship and interpersonal affect is spurious, driven by inferred policy preferences. We argue, instead, that policy preferences signal partisan identity when the parties’ stances on an issue are well-known. Using a nationally representative survey and four preregistered experiments, we disentangle the effects of policy disagreement and partisan identity on interpersonal affect. Our findings suggest that partisan identity is the principal mechanism of affective polarization, and that policy preferences factor into affective polarization largely by signaling partisan identity. However, our results also affirm that policy disagreement in itself drives interpersonal affect. This provides evidence that partisanship reflects an emotional attachment to a political party, not merely a running tally of rational considerations.
翻 译：祝嘉聪、任好为
校 对：马丝妮、祝嘉聪
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：李璐雅
二审：郭见田