国际顶刊 | 《拉美政治与社会》第64卷（2022年）第1-2期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了Latin American Politics and Society（LAPS，《拉美政治与社会》）2022年第64卷第1-2期文章编译。
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PART 1
期刊简介
Latin American Politics and Society（LAPS，《拉美政治与社会》）出版了关于拉丁美洲最高质量的原创社会科学学术研究。编辑委员会由来自美国、拉丁美洲和欧洲的顶尖学者组成，致力于在全球化世界中挑战盛行的正统观念，促进对美洲国家、社会、经济和国际关系的创新理论和研究方法。除了传统的研究文章外，拉丁美洲政治与社会还包括（1）批判性评论——审查近期拉丁美洲研究文献中主要主题的；（2）研究笔记是关于数据、理论和方法问题的短篇文章；（3）书评提供对个别书籍的评论。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=1.673，在84种区域研究类（Area Studies-SSCI）期刊中排名第24（Q2）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Volume 64 - Issue 1 - February 2022
Informal Coalitions and Legislative Agenda Setting in Mexico’s Multiparty Presidential System
墨西哥多党总统制体系中的非正式联盟和立法议程设置
¡Despierta México! Changing Public Attitudes Toward NAFTA, 2008–2018
“唤醒墨西哥”：公众对于北美自由贸易协议态度的变化，2008-2018
Policy Legacies, Sociopolitical Coalitions, and the Limits of the Right Turn in Latin America: The Argentine Case in Comparative Perspective
政策遗产，社会政治联盟，以及拉丁美洲右转的局限：比较视角下的阿根廷案例
Negative Partisanship in Latin America
拉丁美洲的负面政党态度
Learning Targets: Policy Paradigms and State Responses to the Anticorruption Transnational Advocacy Network Campaign in Guatemala
研究目标：危地马拉的政策范式和国家对反腐败跨国倡议网络行动的回应
Political Rights Regulation by Deferral: Obstacles to External Voting in Uruguay
通过推迟实行的政治权利规制：乌拉圭境外投票的阻碍
Volume 64 - Special Issue 2 - May 2022
Issue Topic: The Politics of Informal Work
Labor Informality and the Vote in Latin America: A Meta-analysis
拉丁美洲的劳工非正规性和投票：荟萃分析
Informal Gold Miners, State Fragmentation, and Resource Governance in Bolivia and Peru
玻利维亚和秘鲁的非正式黄金矿工、国家碎片化和资源治理
Dilemmas of Co-production: How Street Waste Pickers Became Excluded from Inclusive Recycling in São Paulo
合作生产的困境：街头拾荒者如何被排除在圣保罗的包容性回收之外
Trial by Fire: Informal Agreements, Destructive Protest, and Civil Society in Bolivia
火之审判：玻利维亚的非正式协议、破坏性抗争与公民社会
A New Contract? The Joint Mobilization of Unionized and Contract Workers in Latin America
一份新合同？拉丁美洲工会与合同工的联合动员
Varieties of Economic Vulnerability: Evidence on Social Policy Preferences and Labor Informality from Mexico
经济脆弱性的多样性：来自墨西哥的社会政策偏好和劳动力非正式性的证据
PART 3
精选译文
Volume 64 - Issue 1 - February 2022
01 墨西哥多党总统制体系中的非正式联盟和立法议程设置
【题目】
Informal Coalitions and Legislative Agenda Setting in Mexico’s Multiparty Presidential System
【作者】
Yann P. Kerevel, Sergio A. Bárcena Juárez
【摘要】
在立法机构为反对党主导时，总统能在什么程度发挥守门人权力？凭借对墨西哥众议院——其中总统缺乏立法机构的多数地位、且经常面临反对党把持立法机构的情况——摇摆率的研究，本文认为守门人权力是分散在不同的行为者之间的。我们发现总统对于议程发挥了较弱的守门人权力。总统及其政党很少在事关总统倡议的投票中失败，因为它们通常会与反对党建立稳定的非正式联盟以通过其法案。此外，总统及其政党在出自立法部门的法案上议程设置权更小，因为如果该政党同时不是中间派，那么在立法动议和立法修正阶段，他们的态度有时会有摇摆。
To what extent can presidents exert gatekeeping power in opposition-led legislatures? Drawing on a study of roll rates in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, where presidents lack legislative majorities and often face a legislature controlled by the opposition, this article argues that gatekeeping power is divided among multiple actors. It finds that presidents exert weak gatekeeping power over the agenda. While presidents and their parties are rarely defeated in votes related to presidential initiatives, they generally create stable, informal coalitions with opposition parties to pass their bills. Moreover, the agenda-setting power of the president and the president’s party is weaker with bills that originate in the legislative branch, where the party is occasionally rolled on legislative initiatives and during the amendment stage if it is not also the median party.
02 “唤醒墨西哥”：公众对于北美自由贸易协议态度的变化，2008-2018
【题目】
¡Despierta México!Changing Public Attitudes Toward NAFTA, 2008–2018
【作者】
Mark Aspinwall, Gerardo Maldonado
【摘要】
区域贸易协定对发展中国家有重要的影响，但是关于公众对于贸易协定态度的文献还有一些不足。其中最显著的是许多研究倾向于选取一个年份作为分析点，而我们并不能从中得知民众态度如何演变。本文利用民意调查数据来考察在十年中墨西哥人对北美自由贸易协议的态度。回归分析的结果显示，墨西哥人对于联合国的支持和其对于北美自由贸易协议的支持之间存在相关性，而其它类型的因素（譬如：总统、美国）的关系相比于其他研究的结论要更弱。数据同样揭示了唐纳德·特朗普在总统任上到访与对北美自由贸易协议支持增加之间的联系。
Regional trade agreements have important consequences for developing countries, but the public opinion literature on trade agreements suffers from several shortcomings. Most significant is that studies tend to take a single year as the point of analysis, leaving us uncertain as to how opinion evolves. This study uses polling data to examine Mexicans’ attitudes toward NAFTA over a ten-year period. Results from regression analyses show an association between Mexicans’ support for the United Nations and their support for NAFTA, and a weaker relationship for other types of cues (presidential, the United States), than other studies have found. The data also reveal an association between Donald Trump’s arrival in the presidency and increased support for NAFTA.
03 政策遗产，社会政治联盟，以及拉丁美洲右转的局限：比较视角下的阿根廷案例
【题目】
Policy Legacies, Sociopolitical Coalitions, and the Limits of the Right Turn in Latin America: The Argentine Case in Comparative Perspective
【作者】
Gabriel Vommaro, Mariana Gené
【摘要】
在左翼政府主导拉丁美洲超过10年之后，形势开始逆转，从而为右翼政治势力的兴起提供机会。甚至温和右翼政府也进行改革，削减公共开支。然而这一议程遭到了严重的阻碍。以广泛的质性研究（包括对于关键行为人的深度访谈）为基础，本文聚焦2017年阿根廷养老金改革，并证实了之前关于政策遗产在反对亲市场改革上的力量的研究。本研究对已有理论的贡献在于表明：只有在左翼政府已经与有组织的民众部门建立联系、并保持协调和合作的情况下，反对紧缩的抗议才有利于建立反对联盟。在这些案例中，个别改革的成本可以危害更广泛的紧缩计划。
After more than a decade of leftist governments in Latin America, the left turn began to reverse course, giving way to the rise of rightist political forces. Even moderate right-wing governments undertook reforms to reduce public spending. This agenda, however, encountered important obstacles. Focusing on the 2017 Argentine pension reform and based on extensive qualitative research, including in-depth interviews with key players, the findings here uphold previous work on the strength of policy legacies in opposition to promarket reforms. This study contributes to the existing theory by showing that protests against retrenchment favor the formation of opposition coalitions only in places where left-leaning governments had established inroads with organized popular sectors, maintaining relationships of coordination and collaboration. In these cases, the cost of specific reforms can jeopardize the broader project of retrenchment.
04 拉丁美洲的负面政党态度
【题目】
Negative Partisanship in Latin America
【作者】
Agustina Haime, Francisco Cantú
【摘要】
关于政党态度的比较研究强调了拉丁美洲政党认同比例较低。这种情况被普遍看作是该地区公民疏远政党和民主制的标志。本文通过考虑投票者对于某个政党的负面感情（或曰负面的政党态度）来重新审视这一解释，并发现考察政党态度的消极面有助于我们更清晰地认识选民中的党派联系。为支持这一观点，本文分析了一个在阿根廷和墨西哥进行的原创的联合实验，以及此外的两个针对巴西、智利和厄瓜多尔的民意调查。本研究证实负面政党态度能够将那些对政党没有认同的选民同无党派群众区分开来，其作用独立于积极的政党认同，并且不同于对民主体制的总体不信任。
The literature on comparative partisanship has demonstrated the low rates of party identification in Latin America. Such low rates are commonly interpreted as a sign of citizens’ disengagement with parties and democracy in the region. This article revisits this interpretation by considering voters’ adverse affection toward a party, or negative partisanship. It shows that examining the negative side of partisanship can help us develop a clearer perspective on the partisan linkages in the electorate. To support this claim, this study analyzes an original conjoint experiment in Argentina and Mexico, as well as two other public opinion surveys fielded in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. The study presents empirical evidence indicating that negative partisanship helps voters without an attachment to a party to distinguish themselves from nonpartisans, is independent of positive partisanship, and is different from a general distrust of the democratic system.
05 研究目标：危地马拉的政策范式和国家对反腐败跨国倡议网络行动的回应
【题目】
Learning Targets: Policy Paradigms and State Responses to the Anticorruption Transnational Advocacy Network Campaign in Guatemala
【作者】
Alberto Fuentes
【摘要】
对于跨国倡议网络（TANs）的研究越发认识到，在被其针对时，即使弱国家也可能回应并破坏跨国规范社会化行动。它考察了导致此类回应的条件和这些国家可用政策手段的范围。然而新兴的研究缺乏有力的情境化说明，阐释国家如何制定策略及应对措施。本文建立在政策学习研究之上，以阐明国家建立其反跨国倡议网络途径的过程。本文认为国家在国内安全领域的政策范式在很大程度上塑造了这些回应，不同的范式提供了不同的先后顺序和手段。在同一次反腐败跨国倡议网络行动背景下，危地马拉政府对两个类似的法律政治挑战的不同反应产生了不同影响，对其比较说明了这一论点。
Scholarship on Transnational Advocacy Networks (TANs) increasingly recognizes that even weak states targeted by TANs may respond, and subvert, transnational norm socialization campaigns. It examines both the conditions conducive to such responses and the range of policy instruments available to these states. Yet this emerging work lacks a robust, contextualized account for how states devise the strategy and the content of their responses. This article builds on the policy-learning literature to elucidate the process through which states construct their anti-TAN approaches. It suggests that states’ policy paradigms in the field of domestic security largely shape those responses, with different paradigms offering distinct priorities and instruments. The comparison of the divergent impact of the Guatemalan state’s contrasting responses to two similar legal-political challenges, undertaken in the context of the same anticorruption TAN campaign, illustrates the argument.
06 通过推迟实行的政治权利规制：乌拉圭境外投票的阻碍
【题目】
Political Rights Regulation by Deferral: Obstacles to External Voting in Uruguay
【作者】
Ana Margheritis
【摘要】
为何乌拉圭还未使侨民拥有选举权？本文考察了一个尚未被研究的未给予选举权的案例，并与境外投票、侨民政治和境外公民权方面的争论展开对话。以质性和参与式的方法为基础，本文揭示了在2004-2019年间选举权改革的阻碍因素，尽管在这段时间取得了显著进步。虽然境外投票在法律上并未被通过，但侨民的投票权被讨论、正式承认和鼓励。不是规范开创者的缺乏、而是优柔寡断行为的累计作用延续了适得其反的动态和事实上不平等地享有投票权的情况。一项悬而未决的讨论在促进交流的同时妨碍了妥协，使得推迟决定变成了一种规制侨民的政治接纳或排斥的含蓄形式。通过陈列原始证据，本文拓展了现有观点，强调了促进变革的制度和社会因素的互动，并鼓励对政策扩散、国内政治和时机之作用的进一步研究。
Why hasn’t Uruguay enfranchised emigrants yet? This study examines an underresearched case of nonenfranchisement and engages with debates on external voting, diaspora politics, and citizenship beyond borders. Building on qualitative and participatory methods, the analysis unveils the obstacles to franchise reform despite significant progress from 2004 to 2019. Although external voting was not enacted legally, emigrants’ voting rights were debated, formally acknowledged, and encouraged. It is not the lack of norm entrepreneurs but the cumulative effect of indecisive actions that perpetuates a counterproductive dynamic and de facto uneven access to this right. An unresolved debate simultaneously advances conversations but precludes compromises, turning resolution deferral into an implicit form of regulating emigrants’ political inclusion or exclusion. Presenting original evidence, this study expands existing accounts, highlights the interaction between institutional and social drivers of change, and invites further research on the role of policy diffusion, domestic politics, and timing.
Volume 64 - Special Issue 2 - May 2022
Issue Topic: The Politics of Informal Work
01 拉丁美洲的劳工非正规性和投票：荟萃分析
【题目】
Labor Informality and the Vote in Latin America: A Meta-analysis
【作者】
Andy Baker andDalton Dorr
【摘要】
拉丁美洲政治学者的传统观点认为，与正式工人相比，非正式工人的参与性和左倾性较低。然而，相关的实证结果参差不齐，需要进行综合考量。本文通过对先前关于非正式性和投票的定量研究的范围进行荟萃分析来提供汇总分析。研究结果发现，非正式工人确实比正式工人更不可能投票，但非正式的因素影响很小——只有四到七个百分点。它进一步发现，非正式工人更有可能投票给左派，而不是右派，但这里的影响规模更小。元回归分析表明，在非正规工人有组织的专业活动较多的国家，两个部门之间的投票率差距很小。本文的结论是，传统观点夸大了拉丁美洲劳工非正规化在个人层面的政治后果。
Conventional wisdom among scholars of Latin American politics holds that informal workers are less participatory and less left-leaning than formal workers. Relevant empirical findings, however, are mixed and in need of synthesis. This article provides that synthesis by conducting meta-analyses on the universe of previous quantitative studies of informality and the vote. It finds that informal workers are indeed less likely to vote than formal workers, but the effect of informality is small—just four to seven percentage points. It further finds that informal workers are more likely to vote for the left, not the right, but here the effect size is even smaller. Meta-regression analyses reveal that in countries where organized professional activity among informal workers is high, gaps in turnout between the two sectors are minimal. The article concludes that the conventional wisdom over-states the individual-level political consequences of labor informality in Latin America.
02 玻利维亚和秘鲁的非正式黄金矿工、国家碎片化和资源治理
【题目】
Informal Gold Miners, State Fragmentation, and Resource Governance in Bolivia and Peru
【作者】
Zaraí Toledo Orozco
【摘要】
高商品价格导致安第斯山脉非正规金矿开采激增。尽管财力有限，但事实证明，非正规金矿商能够影响国家层面的政策结果。为什么他们能够这样做？本研究提出了对玻利维亚和秘鲁的比较研究，在该国，非正规矿工在政治上已被纳入，而在秘鲁，他们传统上被排除在外。它阐述了，尽管制度环境截然不同，但非正规矿工如何同样能够利用他们对当地经济的贡献以及中央政府与其周边分支机构之间的裂痕，与地方当局形成压力团体。基于对玻利维亚和秘鲁最大金矿社区的政治家和领导人的 120 次采访，本研究通过概述碎片化国家中非正式团体竞争排他性资源的条件和机制，为国家—社会关系、资源政治和去中心化的学术研究做出了贡献。
High commodity prices have led to the proliferation of informal gold mining in the Andes. Despite their limited financial capacity, informal gold miners have proved capable of influencing national-level policy outcomes. Why are they able to do so? This study puts forward a comparative study of Bolivia, where informal miners have been politically incorporated, and Peru, where they have been traditionally excluded. It shows how, despite the very different institutional contexts, informal miners are similarly capable of leveraging their contribution to the local economy and the fracture between the central state and its peripheral branches to form pressure groups with local authorities. Based on 120 interviews with politicians and leaders from the largest gold-mining communities in Bolivia and Peru, this study contributes to the scholarship on state-society relations, resource politics, and decentralization by outlining the conditions and mechanism through which informal groups contest exclusionary resource governance in fragmented states.
03 合作生产的困境：街头拾荒者如何被排除在圣保罗的包容性回收之外
【题目】
Dilemmas of Co-production: How Street Waste Pickers Became Excluded from Inclusive Recycling in São Paulo
【作者】
Manuel Rosaldo
【摘要】
在何种条件下，非正规工人与政府在公共服务提供方面的合作会产生有益于社会的协同效应，而何种情况会加剧不平等？本文基于14个月的民族志研究，通过对在圣保罗联合生产回收服务的两次尝试的比较案例研究来解决这个问题。第一次是20世纪80和90年代的基层组织工作，改善了数百名拾荒者的收入和条件，并激发了全国拾荒者组织的热潮。第二次是在21世纪初期，政府对废物管理进行了雄心勃勃的改革，创造了大约1,500个工作岗位，但却在实际运作中排除了本旨在受益的街头拾荒者群体。研究结果表明，如果在政策设计和实施过程中齐心协力消除贫困人口和更强大的利益相关者之间的不平等，合作生产最有可能带来有利于贫困人口的结果。
Under what conditions do collaborations between informal workers and the state in public service provision lead to socially beneficial synergies, and when might they intensify inequalities? This article, based on 14 months of ethnographic research, addresses this question through a comparative case study of two attempts to co-produce recycling services in São Paulo. The first, a grassroots organizing effort in the 1980s and 1990s, improved the incomes and conditions of hundreds of waste pickers and inspired a national upsurge of waste picker organizing. The second, an ambitious overhaul of waste management in the early 2000s, generated about 1,500 jobs but functionally excluded the very population of street waste pickers it was designed to benefit. The findings suggest that co-production is most likely to lead to pro-poor outcomes if concerted efforts are made to level inequalities between poor constituents and more powerful stakeholders during processes of policy design and implementation.
04 火之审判：玻利维亚的非正式协议、破坏性抗争与公民社会
【题目】
Trial by Fire: Informal Agreements, Destructive Protest, and Civil Society in Bolivia
【作者】
Calla Hummel
【摘要】
公民社会领导者与官员建立关系并参与争议性的政治。一些人采用纵火和袭击等破坏性策略来瞄准与他们合作的官员。为什么民间社会领导人使用破坏性抗争策略？本文认为，当双方都需要明确的信息，并且领导者相信官员会提供有利可图的协议来阻止破坏性抗议时，领导者会使用破坏性策略。研究表明，这种动态更有可能出现在制度化程度低、高度政治化和资源匮乏的环境中。该研究通过追踪街头小贩组织的和平和破坏性抗议案例以及玻利维亚埃尔阿尔托官员的回应来支持这一论点。论点和案例表明，公民社会领导者更有可能针对女性和其他少数群体，因为他们更有可能低估少数群体官员，但这些官员更有可能惩罚肇事者。
Civil society leaders develop relationships with officials and engage in contentious politics. Some resort to destructive tactics like arson and assault to target the officials they work with. Why do civil society leaders use destructive protest tactics? This article argues that leaders use destructive tactics when both they and officials need clear information and when leaders believe that officials will offer lucrative agreements to stop destructive protests. The research suggests that this dynamic is more likely in weakly institutionalized, highly politicized, and resource-strapped environments. The research supports the argument by process-tracing cases of peaceful and destructive protest by street vendor organizations and officials’ responses in El Alto, Bolivia. The argument and cases suggest that civil society leaders are more likely to target women and other minoritized people because leaders are more likely to underestimate minoritized officials, but that these officials are then more likely to punish the perpetrators.
05 一份新合同？拉丁美洲工会与合同工的联合动员
【题目】
A New Contract? The Joint Mobilization of Unionized and Contract Workers in Latin America
【作者】
Calla Hummel
【摘要】
比较政治经济学家经常将拉丁美洲的劳动力市场分为有稳定就业的（内部）和没有就业的（外部）。然而，该分类忽略了越来越重要的合同工类别，他们持有正式的劳动合同，但往往缺乏劳动稳定性、福利和组织权利。工会和合同工何时共享偏好并参与联合组织？他们的努力何时会导致政策变化？借鉴智利和秘鲁的案例研究，我认为工会工人在看到自己的会员资格受到威胁以及与承包商共享实体工作场所时会动员合同工。当工党联盟利用商界内部的分歧和即将举行的选举来建立支持时，他们在政策改革中取得了成功。因此，本文推动学者们超越正式工人与非正式工人的二分法，研究合同工对集体行动和劳工政策结果的重要性。
Comparative political economists often divide Latin American labor markets into those with secure employment (insiders) and those without it (outsiders). Yet this division misses an increasingly important class of contract workers, who hold formal labor contracts but often lack labor stability, welfare benefits, and organizing rights. When do unionized and contract workers share preferences and engage in joint organizing? And when do their efforts result in policy change? Drawing on case studies of Chile and Peru, I argue that unionized workers mobilize contract workers when they see their own membership under threat and when they share physical workplaces with contractors. Labor coalitions succeed in policy reform when they leverage divisions within the business community and upcoming elections to build support. This article thus pushes scholars to move beyond dichotomies of formal versus informal workers and study how contract workers matter for collective action and labor policy outcomes.
06 经济脆弱性的多样性：来自墨西哥的社会政策偏好和劳动力非正式性的证据
【题目】
Varieties of Economic Vulnerability: Evidence on Social Policy Preferences and Labor Informality from Mexico
【作者】
Melina Altamirano, Sarah Berens, Franziska Deeg
【摘要】
在许多拉丁美洲国家，经济弱势公民的社会政策偏好似乎基本上是非极化的。然而，目前的研究很少让公民面临现实的政策选择，而且往往缺乏捕捉经济脆弱性异质性所需的细节。根据二元化辩论，我们预计面临不同程度脆弱性的个人会表现出不同的社会政策偏好。使用来自墨西哥的原始调查数据和一项联合实验，我们的研究结果揭示了一个复杂的鸿沟，即经济上最脆弱的群体最不支持公共解决方案。与正式的劳动力市场参与者共享房屋似乎并不能减轻弱势群体对社会政策的怀疑。相比之下，通过家庭构成放大的脆弱性减少了对福利政策扩张的支持。当引入政策设计替代方案时，社会政策偏好变得不那么明显，这表明人们对国家角色的期望降低了，并且对社会政策改革的切实利益缺乏明确性。
In many Latin American countries, social policy preferences among economically vulnerable citizens seem largely unpolarized. However, current studies rarely confront citizens with realistic policy options and often lack the required detail to capture the heterogeneity of economic vulnerability. Drawing on the dualization debate, we expect individuals facing different degrees of vulnerability to show distinct social policy preferences. Using original survey data from Mexico and a conjoint experiment, our findings reveal a complex divide, where the most economically vulnerable are least supportive of public solutions. Sharing the home with a formal labor market participant does not seem to mitigate social policy skepticism among the vulnerable. In contrast, magnified vulnerability via household composition reduces support for welfare policy expansion. Social policy preferences become much less distinct when policy design alternatives are introduced, suggesting reduced expectations about the state’s role and a lack of clarity about the tangible benefits of social policy reform.
翻 译：杨轩、郝若雯、周嘉豪
校 对：李征宇、郝若雯、周嘉豪
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