国际顶刊 |《政治科学研究与方法》第10卷（2022年）第1-2期
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了Political Science Research and Methods（PSRM，《政治科学研究与方法》）2022年第10卷第1-2期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Political Science Research and Methods（PSRM，《政治科学研究与方法》）是一份关注综合政治科学的国际顶级期刊，致力于发表政治科学所有子领域中最高质量的原创学术作品。该期刊特别关注将严格的方法应用于经验或理论问题的研究，并提倡以严格的科学方法研究现实政治。该刊欢迎在政治学和相关学科（如经济学和社会学）的交叉领域的工作。该刊是欧洲政治科学协会（European Political Science Association, EPSA）的官方期刊，致力于成为政治科学领域的领先期刊之一。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=5.239，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第12（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Volume 10 - Issue 1 - January 2022
External threat environments and individual bias against female leaders
外部威胁环境和个人对女性领导者的偏见
Do campaign contributions buy favorable policies? Evidence from the insurance industry
竞选捐款能买到优惠政策吗？来自保险业的证据
The Supreme Court as an electoral issue: evidence from three studies
当美国最高法院作为选举议题：来自三项研究的证据
Surrounded and threatened: how neighborhood composition reduces ethnic voting through intimidation
被包围与被威胁：社区构成如何通过恐吓影响群族投票
Divided government, delegation, and civil service reform
分立政府、授权与公务员制度改革
A new geography of civil war: a machine learning approach to measuring the zones of armed conflicts
内战的新地理：通过机器学习的方法计算武装冲突区域
The polarization dynamics of electoral reforms
选举改革的两极分化态势
Thin-skinned leaders: regime legitimation, protest issues, and repression in autocracies
敏感的领导人：威权国家的政权合法性、抗议议题与镇压
Beaten ballots: political participation dynamics amidst police interventions
被打压的选票：警察干预下的政治参与动态
Nativist policy: the comparative effects of Trumpian politics on migration decisions
本土主义政策：特朗普政治对移民决定的比较效应
Volume 10 - Issue 2 - April 2022
Backlash to policy decisions: how citizens react to immigrants’rights to demonstrate
对政策决定的强烈反对：公民对移民示威权利的反应
Bargaining outcomes and success in EU economic governance reforms
议价结果与欧盟经济治理改革的成功
Complex dependence in foreign direct investment: network theory and empirical analysis
外商直接投资的复杂依赖性：网络理论与实证分析
How government-controlled media shifts policy attitudes through framing
政府控制的媒体如何通过设计改变民众政策态度
Point break: using machine learning to uncover a critical mass in women’s representation
突破点：利用机器学习发现女性代表的临界质量
Retrospection, fairness, and economic shocks: how do voters judge policy responses to natural disasters?
回顾、公平与经济冲击：选民如何判断应对自然灾害的政策？
Sidestepping primary reform: political action in response to institutional change
回避初选改革：应对制度变革的政治行动
The grapevine effect in sensitive data collection: examining response patterns in support for violent extremism
敏感数据收集中的小道消息效应：研究支持暴力极端主义的反应模式
Transformed-likelihood estimators for dynamic panel models with a very small T
利用具有极小T的动态面板数据模型的转化似然估计
When growth is not enough: inequality, economic gains, and executive approval
当（经济）增长还不够时：不平等、经济收益和行政批准
PART 3
精选译文
Volume 10 - Issue 1 - January 2022
01 外部威胁环境和个人对女性领导者的偏见
【题目】
External threat environments and individual bias against female leaders
【作者】
Nam Kyu Kim, Alice J. Kang
【摘要】
本文认为，国家的国际安全环境可以影响个体对女性领导人的偏见并据此提出三种解释机制：通过增加个人对国防的需求，通过塑造个人的意识形态取向，以及通过提升社会的军事化水平。通过84个国家中20多万人的调查数据，作者发现，国家的安全环境越恶劣，人们同意男性比女性更适合做政治领袖的可能性越高。同时，本文所提出的一些机制得到了经验支持，并且，作者发现安全环境对男性的影响比对女性的影响更大。本研究提供了首个表明国家的国际安全环境与对女性领导人的偏见相关的跨国证据。
We argue that a country’s international security context influences individual bias against female leaders and propose three mechanisms: by increasing individual demand for defense, by shaping individual ideological orientations, and by increasing society’s level of militarization. Using survey data of more than 200,000 individuals in 84 countries, we show the more hostile the country’s security environment, the more individuals are likely to agree that men make better political leaders than do women. We also find support for some of our proposed mechanisms and that the effect of security environments is greater for men than women. Our study presents the first cross-national evidence that the country’s international security environment correlates with bias against women leaders.
02 竞选捐款能买到优惠政策吗？来自保险业的证据
【题目】
Do campaign contributions buy favorable policies? Evidence from the insurance industry
【作者】
Alexander Fouirnaies, Anthony Fowler
【摘要】
为了解企业竞选捐款效应，本文研究了保险业在美国各州政治中的潜在影响。保险业是各州政治中最大的参与者之一，作者收集了各州保险行业历时表现的客观指标的新数据。作者充分利用了州内竞选财务法规的变化；这些变化可以极大地限制公司捐款人捐款的能力，并可能影响当选官员。在一系列结果和竞选财务改革中，本文发现很少有证据表明，企业竞选捐款的能力有利于一个州的保险业。部分结果表明，在选举保险专员的州，竞选捐款的能力可能有利于保险业，但总体而言，即使在作者最期望发现它的环境中，竞选捐款似乎仍有一点扭曲效应。
To learn about the effects of corporate campaign contributions, we study the potential influence of the insurance industry in US state politics. The insurance industry is one of the biggest players in state politics, and we have collected new data on objective measures of the industry’s performance in each state over time. We exploit within-state changes in campaign finance regulations which can significantly restrict the ability of corporate contributors to give money and potentially influence elected officials. Across a range of outcomes and campaign finance reforms, we find little evidence that the ability to make corporate campaign contributions benefits the insurance industry in a state. Some results suggest that the ability to make campaign contributions may benefit the insurance industry in states with elected insurance commissioners, but overall, campaign contributions appear to have a little distortionary effect even in a setting where we would most expect to find it.
03 当美国最高法院作为选举议题：来自三项研究的证据
【题目】
The Supreme Court as an electoral issue: evidence from three studies
【作者】
Alex Badas, Elizabeth Simas
【摘要】
在今年的总统与参议院选举中，司法提名，特别是最高法院提名，成为了一个尤为重要的话题。然而，现有文献中针对司法提名是否会推动政治行为的研究仍然不足。本文通过三项研究展示了司法提名在影响政治行为方面的重要作用。在第一项研究中，作者分析了选民将司法提名视为一个重要选举议题的认同程度。本文发现，共和党支持者（尤其是强势支持者）更有可能认同司法提名的重要性。在第二项研究中，作者分析了选民与现任参议员的司法确认投票的一致性如何影响选民给现任参议员的投票选择。本文发现，选民与参议员的司法确认投票的一致性是投票选择的一个强有力的预测因素。最后，在第三项研究中，作者分析了一组独创联合实验数据，该实验旨在模拟选民必须从自己所在党派中选择候选人的参议院预选。本文发现，共和党人更有可能选择一名倾向于向最高法院提名保守派的初选候选人。然而，在民主党受试者中，优先考虑司法的民主党候选人则可能不受选民欢迎。总体上，本文结果证明了司法提名作为选举议题的重要性。
Judicial nominations, particularly those to the Supreme Court, have been a salient topic in recent presidential and senate elections. However, there has been little research to determine whether judicial nominations motivate political behavior. Across three studies we demonstrate the important role judicial nominations play in influencing political behavior. In Study 1, we analyze the extent to which voters perceive judicial nominations as an important electoral issue. We find that Republicans—and especially strong Republicans—are more likely to perceive judicial nominations as important. In Study 2, we analyze how congruence with an incumbent Senator's judicial confirmation votes influences voters’ decision to vote for the incumbent. We find that congruence with a Senator's judicial confirmation votes is a strong predictor of vote choice. Finally, in Study 3, we analyze data from an original conjoint experiment aimed at simulating a Senate primary election where voters must select among co-partisans. We find that Republican subjects are more likely to select a primary candidate who prioritizes confirming conservative Supreme Court nominees. Among Democratic subjects, however, we find that Democratic candidates who prioritize the Court might actually suffer negative electoral consequences. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of judicial nominations as an electoral issue.
04 被包围与被威胁：社区构成如何通过恐吓影响群族投票
【题目】
Surrounded and threatened: how neighborhood composition reduces ethnic voting through intimidation
【作者】
Ted Enamorado, Svetlana Kosterina
【摘要】
族群投票是许多国家政治生活中的一个重要现象。本文对为什么族群投票在一些地区比在其他地区更为普遍这一问题作出理论解释并提供证据。作者认为，地方民族地理环境影响了群族投票：少数族裔选民的投票选择可以因为感受到来自周围多数族裔的恐吓而受到影响。本文以加纳的非洲民主动态调查（Afrobarometer survey）的第四轮数据作为经验证据，用来衡量在选举活动中，选民认为自身可能面临恐吓的想法。另外，通过非洲民主动态调查第三轮和第四轮的地理编码数据及加纳人口与健康调查的数据，本文没有发现可以证明地方公共产品供给是一种替代机制的证据。
Ethnic voting is an important phenomenon in the political lives of numerous countries. In the present paper, we propose a theory explaining why ethnic voting is more prevalent in certain localities than in others and provide evidence for it. We argue that local ethnic geography affects ethnic voting by making voters of ethnicity that finds itself in the minority fear intimidation by their ethnic majority neighbors. We provide empirical evidence for our claim using the data from round 4 of the Afrobarometer survey in Ghana to measure the voters’ beliefs that they are likely to face intimidation during electoral campaigns. Using geocoded data from rounds three and four of the Afrobarometer, as well as data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, we find no evidence for local public goods provision as an alternative mechanism.
05 分立政府、授权与公务员制度改革
【题目】
Divided government, delegation, and civil service reform
【作者】
Elliott Ash, Massimo Morelli, Matia Vannoni
【摘要】
本文对美国各州公务员制度改革的驱动因素进行了新的阐述。首先，本文通过理论论述表明分立政府是美国公务员制度改革的一个关键触发因素，并对分立政府的具体配置进行了细致的预测。其次，本文以20世纪下半叶的数据为上述预测提供了经验证据：各州倾向于在分立政府的情况下，尤其是在立法分支（即参众两院，而非两院与政府）分立时，进行改革。
This paper sheds new light on the drivers of civil service reform in US states. We first demonstrate theoretically that divided government is a key trigger of civil service reform, providing nuanced predictions for specific configurations of divided government. We then show empirical evidence for these predictions using data from the second half of the 20th century: states tended to introduce these reforms under divided government, and in particular when legislative chambers (rather than legislature and governor) were divided.
06 内战的新地理：通过机器学习的方法计算武装冲突区域
【题目】
A new geography of civil war: a machine learning approach to measuring the zones of armed conflicts
【作者】
Kyosuke Kikuta
【摘要】
武装冲突在何处发生？应用研究常以特别的方法来回答这个问题。例如，在一些回归研究中，某一冲突事件会导致某行政区域（如“省”）被整体视为冲突地带。本文作者通过开发一种机器学习方法来填补这一不足。该方法对区域单位假设的依赖性较低，可以灵活地对冲突地带进行估计。本文将该方法应用于一组冲突事件数据集，并创建了一组新的冲突地带数据集。本文使用新的数据集，复制了Daskin与Pringle（2018）关于内战对野生动物影响的研究；结果表明，内战对哺乳动物种群的影响小于原先的估计。
Where do armed conflicts occur? In applied studies, we may take ad hoc approaches to answer this question. In some regression studies, for instance, a single conflict event can cause an entire province to be classified as a conflict zone. In this paper, I fill this void of knowledge by developing a machine learning method that is less dependent on the areal-unit assumptions and can flexibly estimate conflict zones. I apply the method to a conflict event dataset and create a new dataset of conflict zones. A replication of Daskin and Pringle (2018, Nature 553, 328–332) with the new dataset indicates that the effect of civil war on mammal populations is much smaller than the original estimate.
07 选举改革的两极分化态势
【题目】
The polarization dynamics of electoral reforms
【作者】
Zachary Peskowitz, James Szewczyk
【摘要】
选举改革可以通过影响现任立法者的行为、挑战者的行为及现任者被挑战者取代的概率，继而影响立法结果。现有关于选举改革和两极分化的实证研究主要集中针对挑战者的行为。本文采用了一个包括部分在职者政策持续和空间投票的简洁决策理论框架，以共同研究上述三个渠道。结果表明，比起取消旨在促进意识形态两极分化得到缓和的改革，该项改革的实施对两极分化产生的影响更大。本文强调的是，实施一项倡导温和化的改革可以引来更有可能击败现任者的挑战者，而当该项改革被取消时，现任者则更有可能连任。其次，本文对选举和立法两极化如何应对州立法机构的无限政治行动委员会（Political Action Committee, PAC）捐资进行了实证研究。通过考察现任立法者是否决定竞选连任、在职者的选举表现及党派分化形势，作者的预测得到了经验支持。
Electoral reforms affect legislative outcomes by influencing incumbent legislators’ behavior, new entrants’ behavior, and the probability that incumbents are replaced with new entrants. Empirical work on electoral reforms and polarization has focused on new entrants’ behavior. We employ a simple decision theoretic framework with partial incumbent policy persistence and spatial voting to examine the three channels jointly. We show that a reform designed to encourage ideological moderation produces larger effects on polarization when the reform is implemented than when it is removed. The key insight is that implementing a moderation-inducing reform generates a set of challengers who are more likely to defeat incumbents while the incumbents are more likely to win reelection when the reform is removed. We then empirically examine how elections and legislative polarization respond to unlimited PAC contributions in state legislatures. Examining incumbents’ decisions to stand for reelection, the electoral performance of incumbents who do run, and partisan polarization, we find empirical support for our predictions.
08 敏感的领导人：威权国家的政权合法性、抗议议题与镇压
【题目】
Thin-skinned leaders: regime legitimation, protest issues, and repression in autocracies
【作者】
Eda Keremoğlu, Sebastian Hellmeier, Nils B. Weidmann
【摘要】
关于威权国家的文献通常将对抗议的镇压归因于抗议所处的政治环境或抗议事件本身的特定特征。本文认为，两者的相互作用很重要。专制政权在统治合法化的实践方面存在差异，而这类政权在抗议者对其合法性基础进行挑战时尤为敏感。通过2003年至2015年间威权国家群众动员的事件级数据和文本分类方法，作者从报纸报道中提取抗议议题。本文分析表明，当独裁者声称其合法性是基于领导人个人时，其更有可能镇压针对自身的抗议。总的来说，本研究表明，抗议议题本身在触发镇压方面并不具有普遍性；相反，镇压与抗议议题所提出时的政治背景相关。
The literature on autocracies has argued that repression of protest is either a result of the political environment in which protest occurs, or depends on particular characteristics of the protest events themselves. We argue that the interaction of both matters. Authoritarian regimes vary in how they legitimize their rule, and they should be particularly thin-skinned if protesters challenge the basis of their legitimacy. Using event-level data on mass mobilization in autocracies between 2003 and 2015, we use text classification methods to extract protest issues from newspaper reports. Our analysis shows that dictators are more likely to repress protest against incumbents when they claim legitimacy based on the person of the leader. Overall, our study shows that protest issues are not universal in triggering repression; rather, they need to be considered together with the political context in which they are raised.
09 被打压的选票：警察干预下的政治参与动态
【题目】
Beaten ballots: political participation dynamics amidst police interventions
【作者】
Toni Rodon and Marc Guinjoan
【摘要】
暴力对政治动员有何影响？以镇压-动员关系的争论为出发点，本文以西班牙警察对加泰罗尼亚2017年10月1日独立公投的镇压为中心，研究警察干预对政治参与的影响。作者通过详细的综合数据以及公投结束之后进行的调查，分析警察行动对投票率的影响。两种实证方法表明，警方的干预措施既有威慑作用，同时又有反向的空间溢出效应。尽管警察的突袭对投票率有局部的负面影响，但该措施在周围地区引起了积极的溢出效应。除此，本文研究结果也表明了空间动态的异质性，即警察行动不仅促进了-人们前往邻近地区投票，而且动员了邻近地区居民（尤其是本身投票兴趣较低的个人）参与投票。
What is the effect of violence on political mobilization? Taking the repression-mobilization nexus debate as a starting point, we study the effects of police interventions on political participation, focusing on the Spanish police crackdown on Catalonia’s independence referendum on 1 October 2017. We analyze the effect of police actions on turnout using detailed aggregate data, as well as a survey conducted a few days after the referendum. The two empirical approaches show that police interventions had both deterrent and inverse spatial spillover effects. Although police raids had a local negative impact on turnout, they induced positive spillover effects in the surrounding areas. Our findings also indicate heterogeneity in the spatial dynamics, with police actions encouraging people to go to vote in nearby areas, but also mobilizing residents in neighboring areas to participate, especially those individuals with fewer incentives to turn out to vote.
10 本土主义政策：特朗普政治对移民决定的比较效应
【题目】
Nativist policy: the comparative effects of Trumpian politics on migration decisions
【作者】
Raymond M. Duch, Denise Laroze, Constantin Reinprecht, Thomas S. Robinson
【摘要】
许多美国产业（特别是与科学及工程相关的产业）依赖高精尖技术移民。然而，近期移民风向标志着美国移民政策的实质性变化。本文通过实施一个联合实验，分离出本土主义与反移民声明对潜在技术移民目的地选择的因果效应。虽然该类政策对智利与英国学生的目的地选择有明显的负面影响，但对印度与中国学生的选择影响甚微。通过对受试者的一般移民目的地偏好进行非侵入性测试，上述结果得到证实。此外，部分证据表明，本土主义政策的负面影响在自我认同为左派的受试者中更为显著。
Firms in the USA rely on highly skilled immigrants, particularly in the science and engineering sectors. Yet, the recent politics of immigration marks a substantial change to US immigration policy. We implement a conjoint experiment that isolates the causal effect of nativist, anti-immigrant, pronouncements on where skilled potential-migrants choose to immigrate to. While these policies have a significantly negative effect on the destination choices of Chilean and UK student subjects, they have little effect on the choices of Indian and Chinese student subjects. These results are confirmed through an unobtrusive test of subjects’ general immigration destination preferences. Moreover, there is some evidence that the negative effect of these nativist policies are particularly salient for those who self-identify with the Left.
Volume 10 - Issue 2 - April 2022
01 对政策决定的强烈反对：公民对移民示威权利的反应
【题目】
Backlash to policy decisions: how citizens react to immigrants’rights to demonstrate
【作者】
Richard Traunmüller, Marc Helbling
【摘要】
我们关注了移民政治融合的一个具体方面——当局如何处理他们示威的政治权利——我们在一项大规模调查实验中发现，允许示威的自由主义政策决定导致了民众态度的两极分化：同意移民许可的公民变得更有同情心，而赞成禁止移民政策的公民则对移民更加不满。这种反对政策决定的概念为有关移民态度的文献增加了一个新的视角，这些文献要么假定公众意见和政策之间是一致的，要么完全忽视了反移民情绪的政治来源。通过探讨政策决定的意外结果，我们提供了另一种观点，并展示了平衡公民意见和少数人权利的内在困境。
Focusing on one specific aspect of immigrant political integration—how authorities deal with their political right to demonstrate—we show in a large-scale survey experiment that liberal policy decisions permitting demonstrations lead to a polarization in attitudes: citizens who agree with a permission become more sympathetic, while those in favor of banning become more critical of immigrants. This notion of opinion backlash to policy decisions adds a new perspective to the literature on immigration attitudes which has either assumed a congruence between public opinion and policy or ignored political sources of anti-immigrant sentiment altogether. By exploring the unintended consequences of policy decisions, we provide an alternative view and demonstrate the inherent dilemma of balancing citizen opinion and minority rights.
02 议价结果与欧盟经济治理改革的成功
【题目】
Bargaining outcomes and success in EU economic governance reforms
【作者】
Fabio Franchino, Camilla Mariotto
【摘要】
我们评估了程序模型和谈判模型在预测1997年至2013年发生在欧盟（EU）的经济治理改革结果方面的准确性。这些谈判的特点是失败的成本很高。我们确认了折衷模型的准确性和稳健性，但具有昂贵参考点的程序模型表现良好，这表明无协议成本的错误估计可能是其通常报告准确性较差的原因。然而，该模型对测量误差更敏感。我们还展示了这两种模型如何有助于理解议价的成功，以及欧洲议会的有条件影响如何不应被忽视。最后，我们讨论了这些结果对我们理解欧盟的影响。
We assess the accuracy of procedural and bargaining models in predicting the outcomes of the reforms of the economic governance of the European Union (EU) that took place between 1997 and 2013. These negotiations were characterized by high costs of failure. We confirm the accuracy and robustness of the compromise model, but a procedural model with a costly reference point performs well, indicating that misestimation of the no-agreement cost may be a reason for its commonly reported poorer accuracy. However, this model is more sensitive to measurement errors. We also show how both models contribute to understanding bargaining success and how the conditional influence of the European Parliament should not be ignored. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for our understanding of the EU.
03 外商直接投资的复杂依赖性：网络理论与实证分析
【题目】
Complex dependence in foreign direct investment: network theory and empirical analysis
【作者】
John Schoeneman, Boliang Zhu，Bruce A. Desmarais
【摘要】
我们开发了一个理论框架来解释外商直接投资（FDI）关系中的复杂依赖性。传统的 FDI 理论侧重于企业、行业、国家或二元层面的特征，以解释跨境资本流动。然而，当今全球化经济的特点是生产过程的日益碎片化和分散化，从而导致生产关系之间产生了复杂的依赖关系。因此，应将外商直接投资流动系统化、理论化。具体来说，我们认为外商直接投资关系是互惠和有传递性的。我们使用加权网络的指数随机图模型（ERGM）对这些假设以及外国直接投资的传统协变量决定因素进行了检验。我们发现 FDI 网络表现出很强的互惠性和传递性。我们研究 FDI 的网络方法为跨境投资流动及其政治和经济后果，以及更普遍的全球化动态提供了新的见解。除了我们的实质性发现之外，我们还通过引入 ERGM 为政治学中的计数加权网络提供了广泛的方法论贡献。
We develop a theoretical framework that accounts for complex dependence in foreign direct investment (FDI) relationships. Conventional theories of FDI focus on firm-, industry-, country-, or dyad-level characteristics to account for cross-border capital movements. Yet, today’s globalized economy is characterized by the increasing fragmentation and dispersion of production processes, which gives rise to complex dependence among production relationships. Consequently, FDI flows should be represented and theorized as a network. Specifically, we argue that FDI relationships are reciprocal and transitive. We test these hypotheses along with conventional covariate determinants of FDI using an exponential random graph model (ERGM) for weighted networks. We find that FDI networks exhibit strong reciprocity and transitivity. Our network approach to studying FDI provides new insights into cross-border investment flows and their political and economic consequences, and more generally the dynamics of globalization. In addition to our substantive findings, we offer a broad methodological contribution by introducing the ERGM for count-weighted networks in political science.
04 政府控制的媒体如何通过设计改变民众政策态度
【题目】
How government-controlled media shifts policy attitudes through framing
【作者】
Jennifer Pan, Zijie Shao，Yiqing Xu
【摘要】
研究表明，政府控制的媒体是独裁政权塑造公众舆论的有效工具。当需要支持独裁者在问题上采取的立场变化时，政府控制的媒体是否仍然有效？现有理论并没有为这个问题提供明确的答案，但我们经常观察到威权政府在需要对政策立场进行重大改变时，会利用政府媒体以新的方式制定政策。通过进行一项实验，让受访者接触政府控制的媒体——以电视新闻片段的形式就政权大幅改变其政策立场的问题进行报道。我们发现，通过对同一问题的不同表述，政府控制的媒体使受访者采取更接近政权所支持的政策立场，而不管个人倾向如何。这一结果适用于民众对国内外政策态度的直接、综合测量，并且其效果在民众接收新闻后可持续长达 48 小时。
Research shows that government-controlled media is an effective tool for authoritarian regimes to shape public opinion. Does government-controlled media remain effective when it is required to support changes in positions that autocrats take on issues? Existing theories do not provide a clear answer to this question, but we often observe authoritarian governments using government media to frame policies in new ways when significant changes in policy positions are required. By conducting an experiment that exposes respondents to government-controlled media—in the form of TV news segments—on issues where the regime substantially changed its policy positions, we find that by framing the same issue differently, government-controlled media moves respondents to adopt policy positions closer to the ones espoused by the regime regardless of individual predisposition. This result holds for domestic and foreign policy issues, for direct and composite measures of attitudes, and persists up to 48 hours after exposure.
05 突破点：利用机器学习发现女性代表的临界质量
【题目】
Point break: using machine learning to uncover a critical mass in women’s representation
【作者】
Kendall D. Funk, Hannah L. Paul，Andrew Q. Philips
【摘要】
数十年的研究一直在争论女性是否首先需要在立法机构中达到“临界人数”才能有效影响立法结果。通过使用基于监督树的机器学习，这项研究有助于研究女性立法代表性的不断变化与政府在教育、医疗和国防三个政策领域支出分配之间的关系。我们发现女性的代表性可以预测所有三个领域的支出。我们还发现了临界质量效应的证据，因为女性代表性和政府支出之间的关系是非线性的。然而，除了临界质量之外，我们的研究还指出了妇女代表中潜在的临界质量区间或临界极限点。我们为这些结果如何为未来使用标准参数模型的研究提供了指导。
Decades of research has debated whether women first need to reach a “critical mass” in the legislature before they can effectively influence legislative outcomes. This study contributes to the debate using supervised tree-based machine learning to study the relationship between increasing variation in women’s legislative representation and the allocation of government expenditures in three policy areas: education, healthcare, and defense. We find that women’s representation predicts spending in all three areas. We also find evidence of critical mass effects as the relationships between women’s representation and government spending are nonlinear. However, beyond critical mass, our research points to a potential critical mass interval or critical limit point in women’s representation. We offer guidance on how these results can inform future research using standard parametric models.
06 回顾、公平与经济冲击：选民如何判断应对自然灾害的政策？
【题目】
Retrospection, fairness, and economic shocks: how do voters judge policy responses to natural disasters?
【作者】
Michael M. Bechtel, Massimo Mannino
【摘要】
哪些因素可以解释选民对经济冲击政策反应的评价？我们在群众对救灾物资分配偏好的背景下探讨了这个问题，并评估了与影响、需求和政治联系有关的三种基于公平的解释。我们分析了在美国公民中进行的原始调查的实验数据，发现影响和需求是选民首选的灾难反应的关键驱动因素。然后，我们将这些模式与观察到的救灾分布情况（1993-2008）进行比较。结果表明，观察到的救济分配在很大程度上反映了选民在受灾影响和需求方面的偏好结构，而不是政治关系。这些发现对正在进行的关于自然灾害对选举影响的辩论、选民对现任总统表现的回顾性评估，以及美元政治决策在多大程度上符合群众偏好都有影响。
Which factors explain voters’ evaluations of policy responses to economic shocks? We explore this question in the context of mass preferences over the distribution of disaster relief and evaluate three fairnessbased explanations related to affectedness, need, and political ties. We analyze experimental data from an original survey conducted among American citizens and find that affectedness and need are key drivers of voters’ preferred disaster responses. We then compare these patterns with observed disaster relief distributions (1993-2008). The results suggest that observed relief allocations largely mirror the structure of voter preferences with respect to affectedness and need, but not to political ties. These findings have implications for an ongoing debate over the electoral effects of natural disasters, voters’ retrospective evaluations of incumbent performance, and the extent to which divide-the-dollar politics decisions align with mass preferences.
07 回避初选改革：应对制度变革的政治行动
【题目】
Sidestepping primary reform: political action in response to institutional change
【作者】
Seth J. Hill
【摘要】
许多人认为，初选使得美国立法机构的代表性失真，因为没有代表性的行为者会提名极端主义的候选人。倡导者对初选模式进行了改革，以扩大选民参与并增加其代表性。然而，关于改革效果的经验性证据却很不稳定。我认为，当制度改革缩小了政治影响的一个途径时，权利受损的行为者就会在其他地方采取政治行动来规避改革带来的不利影响。我使用双重差分法对美国各州进行对照设计，发现虽然改变初选规则会增加初选投票率，但竞选捐款也会随着改革而增加。实施无党派初选和改革党派初选预计会对每个周期的个人竞选捐款分别增加9%和21%。这表明行为者可以通过政治影响采取替代行动，以限制机构改革的效果。
Many believe primary elections distort representation in American legislatures because unrepresentative actors nominate extremist candidates. Advocates have reformed primaries to broaden voter participation and increase representation. Empirical evidence, however, is quite variable on the effects of reform. I argue that when institutional reform narrows one pathway of political influence, aggrieved actors take political action elsewhere to circumvent reform. I use a difference-in-differences design in the American states and find that although changing primary rules increases primary turnout, campaign contributions also increase with reform. Implementing nonpartisan primaries and reforming partisan primaries lead to estimated 9 and 21 percent increases in individual campaign contributions per cycle. This suggests actors substitute action across avenues of political influence to limit effects of institutional reform.
08 敏感数据收集中的小道消息效应：研究支持暴力极端主义的反应模式
【题目】
The grapevine effect in sensitive data collection: examining response patterns in support for violent extremism
【作者】
John McCauley, Steven Finkel, Michael Neureiter, Christopher Belasco
【摘要】
本研究提出了一种在以往关于衡量敏感政治结果的研究中被忽视的模式：在数据收集过程中，民众反应倾向于向支持当地现任权力的方向转变。我们认为，虽然早期的回答在很大程度上没有这种社会期望偏差，但研究信息遍布列举领域，并且在此过程后期接受采访的个人会改变他们的回答，因为他们害怕因不适当的答案而受到报复。我们使用在非洲萨赫勒地区三个不同国家进行的关于支持暴力极端主义的两项调查的原始数据记录了这种模式。我们排除了大量的替代解释，并进一步证实，这种模式不仅可以在公开的调查措施中出现，甚至可以在隐蔽的实验措施中出现。然后，我们使用来自另一项著名研究的样本外数据证明了相同的模式。这些发现为测量敏感态度的传统方法和实验方法都提供了警示。
This study presents a pattern overlooked in previous research on measuring sensitive political outcomes: over the course of data collection, responses tend to shift in the direction of support for the local incumbent power. We suggest that, whereas earlier responses are largely devoid of this social desirability bias, word of the esearch spreads across enumeration areas, and individuals interviewed later in the process alter their responses out of fear of retribution for inappropriate answers. We document the pattern using original data from two surveys on support for violent extremism conducted in three different countries in the Sahel region of Africa. We rule out a host of alternative explanations and further confirm that the pattern can arise not just with overt survey measures but even with covert, experimental ones. We then demonstrate the same pattern using out-of-sample data from a separate well-known study. The findings offer a cautionary note to both conventional and experimental approaches to measuring sensitive attitudes.
09 利用具有极小T的动态面板数据模型的转化似然估计
【题目】
Transformed-likelihood estimators for dynamic panel models with a very small T
【作者】
Mark Pickup & Vincent Hopkins
【摘要】
已知传统的OLS固定效应和GLS随机效应的动态模型估计，在应用于短面板数据（T≤10）时会有偏差。GMM估计器是最常用的替代方法，但有缺点。变换似然估计在政治学中未使用。其中，正交重参数化估计器在任何学科中都只被切实引用。作者介绍了这些估计器并测试了它们的性能，证明了未使用的正交再参数化估计器尤其表现良好，是对常用GMM估计器的改进。当T和/或N较小时，它提供了效率增益，并克服了当滞后因变量的系数接近1时，GMM估计器在估计长期效应时遇到的问题。
Conventional OLS fixed-effects and GLS random-effects estimators of dynamic models that control for individual-effects are known to be biased when applied to short panel data (T ≤ 10). GMM estimators are the most used alternative but are known to have drawbacks. Transformed-likelihood estimators are unused in political science. Of these, orthogonal reparameterization estimators are only tangentially referred to in any discipline. We introduce these estimators and test their performance, demonstrating that the unused orthogonal reparameterization estimator in particular performs very well and is an improvement on the commonly used GMM estimators. When T and/or N are small, it provides efficiency gains and overcomes the issues GMM estimators encounter in the estimation of long-run effects when the coefficient on the lagged dependent variable is close to one.
10 当（经济）增长还不够时：不平等、经济收益和行政批准
【题目】
When growth is not enough: inequality, economic gains, and executive approval
【作者】
Ryan E. Carlin & Timothy Hellwig & Gregory J. Love & Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo & Matthew M. Singer
【摘要】
强健的经济被认为会提高领导人的地位。（但）这忽略了（经济）增长的好处是如何分配的。作者从扩展经济投票的党派模式出发推断，当经济增长的收益落到选民手中时，政府部门才更有可能获得回报。（作者）在对18个拉美国家总统支持率的分析中（找到了）支持他们研究的亲选民问责制。当经济发展十分不平等时，而且这些经济增长集中在富人身上，那么中间偏右的总统的支持率较高。当收益分配更加平等时，左派的总统会从增长中受益。分析深入显示，经济增长和不平等在财富基础上对个人财务状况的认知是不同的，从而为总体研究结果背后提供了一个微观机制。研究结果表明，经济不但纯粹是一个价值问题，也是一个立场问题。
A robust economy is assumed to bolster leaders’ standing. This ignores how benefits of growth are distributed. Extending the partisan models of economic voting, we theorize executives are more likely rewarded when gains from growth go to their constituents. Analyses of presidential approval in 18 Latin American countries support our pro-constituency model of accountability. When economic inequality is high, growth concentrates among the rich, and approval of right-of-center presidents is higher. Leftist presidents benefit from growth when gains are more equally distributed. Further analyses show growth and inequality inform perceptions of personal finances differently based on wealth, providing a micro-mechanism behind the aggregate findings. Study results imply that the economy is not purely a valence issue, but also a position issue.
翻 译：欧阳博雅、王智灏、李璐雅、石寒冰
校 对：欧阳博雅、王智灏、丁岩森、李璐雅
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编辑：焦 磊
一审：李璐雅
二审：郭见田