国际顶刊 |《政治分析》第30卷（2022年）第3期
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了Political Analysis（PA，《政治分析》）2022年第30卷第3期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Political Analysis（PA，《政治分析》）出版同行评审的文章，这些文章在政治科学研究方法的综合领域提供了原创性的重大进展，包括定量和定性的研究方法论。该刊是政治科学方法论学会和美国政治科学协会政治研究方法论分会的官方期刊。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=9.015，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第3（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
How Populist are Parties? Measuring Degrees of Populism in Party Manifestos Using Supervised Machine Learning
政党的民粹主义程度如何？使用有监督机器学习测量政党宣言中的民粹主义程度
The Structure of Political Choices: Distinguishing Between Constraint and Multidimensionality
政治选择的结构：区分约束性和多维性
Large-Scale Ideal Point Estimation
大规模理想点估计
Optimizing the Measurement of Sexism in Political Surveys
优化政治调查中的性别歧视测量
The Misreporting Trade-Off Between List Experiments and Direct Questions in Practice: Partition Validation Evidence from Two Countries
列表实验与实践中直接问题之间的误报权衡：来自两国的分区验证证据
Partisan Dislocation: A Precinct-Level Measure of Representation and Gerrymandering
党派错位：代表和选区划分的分区级衡量标准
Assessing Data Quality: An Approach and An Application
评估数据质量：方法与应用
PART 3
精选译文
01 政党的民粹主义程度如何？使用有监督机器学习测量政党宣言中的民粹主义程度
【题目】
How Populist are Parties? Measuring Degrees of Populism in Party Manifestos Using Supervised Machine Learning
【作者】
Jessica Di Cocco and Bernardo Monechi
【摘要】
民粹主义比较研究面临的主要挑战之一是对大量政党与国家内部及对跨国政党进行时间和空间上的测量。事实证明，文本分析有助于实现这样的目的，而自动化方法可以进一步改进这个方向的研究。在此，我们提出了一种方法，利用监督下的机器学习对国家宣言进行文本分析，从而得出各党派的民粹主义水平得分。我们所提出方法的优点在于，它可以在无需资源密集型的人工编码的情况下测量大量政党和国家的民粹主义程度，并为时间和空间维度上的比较提供准确、最新的信息。此外，我们的方法可以给出一个连续的民粹主义分数，确保研究者可以对政党格局进行更精细的分析，同时降低了随意分类的风险。为进一步说明这个分数对有关研究的潜在贡献，我们使用它来代表政党的民粹主义水平，分析了六个欧洲国家从21世纪初到近20年的平均趋势。
One of the main challenges in comparative studies on populism concerns its temporal and spatial measurements within and between a large number of parties and countries. Textual analysis has proved useful for these purposes, and automated methods can further improve research in this direction. Here, we propose a method to derive a score of parties’ levels of populism using supervised machine learning to perform textual analysis on national manifestos. We illustrate the advantages of our approach, which allows for measuring populism for a vast number of parties and countries without resource-intensive human-coding processes and provides accurate, updated information for temporal and spatial comparisons of populism. Furthermore, our method allows for obtaining a continuous score of populism, which ensures more fine-grained analyses of the party landscape while reducing the risk of arbitrary classifications. To illustrate the potential contribution of this score, we use it as a proxy for parties’ levels of populism, analyzing average trends in six European countries from the early 2000s for nearly two decades.
02 政治选择的结构：区分约束性和多维性
【题目】
The Structure of Political Choices: Distinguishing Between Constraint and Multidimensionality
【作者】
William Marble and Matthew Tyler
【摘要】
在关于公众舆论和立法行为的文献中，存在着这样的争论：(1)偏好的约束程度如何；(2)偏好是由单一的左-右光谱来体现还是需要引入更多的维度。但不充分的形式模型化导致学者们将约束的缺乏等同于多维偏好。在本文中，我们在一个形式框架下完善了约束和维度的概念，并描述了它们如何转化为对政治偏好的单独的、可观察的影响。我们基于这一讨论建立了一个交叉验证估计工具，来测量经典的理想点模型（ideal point model）中的约束和维度。通过使用公众和政治家的数据，我们发现美国的政治偏好是一维的，但是政治家的偏好约束要比普通公众的偏好约束更多。此外，我们表明，政治家和公众之间的差异并不能用议程或主体所面临的激励差异来解释。
In the literatures on public opinion and legislative behavior, there are debates over (1) how constrained preferences are and (2) whether they are captured by a single left–right spectrum or require multiple dimensions. But insufficient formalization has led scholars to equate a lack of constraint with multidimensional preferences. In this paper, we refine the concepts of constraint and dimensionality in a formal framework and describe how they translate into separate observable implications for political preferences. We use this discussion to motivate a cross-validation estimator that measures constraint and dimensionality in the context of canonical ideal point models. Using data from the public and politicians, we find that American political preferences are one-dimensional, but there is more constraint among politicians than among the mass public. Furthermore, we show that differences between politicians and the public are not explained by differences in agendas or the incentives faced by the actors.
03 大规模理想点估计
【题目】
Large-Scale Ideal Point Estimation
【作者】
Michael Peress
【摘要】
投票行为研究和立法机构研究的最新进展依赖于理想点估计来衡量政治参与者的偏好，并且这些应用越来越多地涉及大规模的数据矩阵。事实证明，这对于广泛使用的方法具有挑战性。现有方法的局限性包括对大型数据集的计算时间和内存需求过多、无法有效处理稀疏数据矩阵、标准误差计算效率低以及生成起始值的方法无效。作者开发了一种在大规模应用中估计多维理想点的方法，它克服了这些限制。本文通过将其应用于许多具有挑战性的问题来展示并通过R语言安装包（ipe）实现这一方法。
Recent advances in the study of voting behavior and the study of legislatures have relied on ideal point estimation for measuring the preferences of political actors, and increasingly, these applications have involved very large data matrices. This has proved challenging for the widely available approaches. Limitations of existing methods include excessive computation time and excessive memory requirements on large datasets, the inability to efficiently deal with sparse data matrices, inefficient computation of standard errors, and ineffective methods for generating starting values. I develop an approach for estimating multidimensional ideal points in large-scale applications, which overcomes these limitations. I demonstrate my approach by applying it to a number of challenging problems. The methods I develop are implemented in an r package (ipe).
04 优化政治调查中的性别歧视测量
【题目】
Optimizing the Measurement of Sexism in Political Surveys
【作者】
Brian F. Schaffner
【摘要】
政治学家越来越重视理解性别歧视态度在预测投票选择和对问题的看法方面的作用。然而，该领域的研究使用各种不同的项目和尺度来衡量性别歧视态度。在本文中，作者评估了当下一些最主要的性别歧视测量方法，并开发了一种基于(1)收敛效度、(2)预测效度和(3)政治距离，来辨别最佳途径的方法。作者发现来自敌对性别歧视量表的项目子集表现出最理想的测量特性，本文最后推荐一个简单的由两到五个子项目所组成的简化版敌对性别歧视测量组，这将使学者能够有效、有效和一致地测量性别歧视。
Political scientists are paying increasing attention to understanding the role of sexist attitudes on predicting vote choices and opinions on issues. However, the research in this area measures sexist attitudes with a variety of different items and scales. In this paper, I evaluate some of the most prominent contemporary measures of sexism and develop an approach for identifying optimal items based on (1) convergent validity, (2) predictive validity, and (3) distance from politics. I find that a subset of items from the hostile sexism scale exhibit the most desirable measurement properties and I conclude by recommending a simple two- to five-item reduced hostile sexism battery that will allow scholars to efficiently, validly, and consistently measure sexism.
05 列表实验与实践中直接问题之间的误报权衡：来自两国的分区验证证据
【题目】
The Misreporting Trade-Off Between List Experiments and Direct Questions in Practice: Partition Validation Evidence from Two Countries
【作者】
Patrick M. Kuhn and Nick Vivyan
【摘要】
为了减少对敏感话题的战略误报，调查研究人员越来越多地使用列表实验而不是直接提问。然而，列表实验的复杂性可能会增加非战略性误报。本文对战略和非战略误报之间的这种权衡提供了第一个实证评估。作者对两个不同国家的选举投票率进行了实地列表实验，收集了受访者真实投票率的指标，详细介绍并应用了一种分区验证方法，该方法使用真实分数来区分列表实验的真假阳性和阴性，从而允许检测非战略性报告错误。对于这两个列表实验，分区验证揭示了非战略性误报，即未被标准诊断或验证检测到；大于现有模拟研究中的假设；并且严重到足以导致战略性误报的直接投票率问题表现出较低的总体报告错误。最后，作者讨论了研究结果如何为其他主题和调查上下文的列表实验和直接问题之间的选择提供信息。
To reduce strategic misreporting on sensitive topics, survey researchers increasingly use list experiments rather than direct questions. However, the complexity of list experiments may increase nonstrategic misreporting. We provide the first empirical assessment of this trade-off between strategic and nonstrategic misreporting. We field list experiments on election turnout in two different countries, collecting measures of respondents’ true turnout. We detail and apply a partition validation method which uses true scores to distinguish true and false positives and negatives for list experiments, thus allowing detection of nonstrategic reporting errors. For both list experiments, partition validation reveals nonstrategic misreporting that is: undetected by standard diagnostics or validation; greater than assumed in extant simulation studies; and severe enough that direct turnout questions subject to strategic misreporting exhibit lower overall reporting error. We discuss how our results can inform the choice between list experiment and direct question for other topics and survey contexts.
06 党派错位：代表和选区划分的分区级衡量标准
【题目】
Partisan Dislocation: A Precinct-Level Measure of Representation and Gerrymandering
【作者】
Daryl R. DeFord, Nicholas Eubank And Jonathan Rodden
【摘要】
本文引入了一个细粒度的措施，来衡量选区以不自然的方式合并和分裂当地合作党派社区的程度。我们的指标——我们称之为党派错位——是衡量选民地理位置上最为相近的邻区的党派构成与其指定选区的党派构成之间的差异的指标。研究结果表明，我们的衡量标准是针对地区操纵的一个很好的本地和全球指标，可以轻松识别地区划分共同党派集群（分裂）或以不自然的方式将它们组合（打包）的实例。我们证明了我们的测量方法与其他测量选区划分的方法相关但又不同，并且具有一些明显的优势，首先是作为基于模拟的方法的补充，以及作为一种识别受选区划分影响最大的特定社区的方法。希望创建反映选民地理位置的地图的选区选民也可以前瞻性地使用它，但根据我们的分析，该目标有时会与党派公平的目标相冲突。
We introduce a fine-grained measure of the extent to which electoral districts combine and split local communities of co-partisans in unnatural ways. Our indicator—which we term Partisan Dislocation—is a measure of the difference between the partisan composition of a voter’s geographic nearest neighbors and that of her assigned district. We show that our measure is a good local and global indicator of district manipulation, easily identifying instances in which districts carve up clusters of co-partisans (cracking) or combine them in unnatural ways (packing). We demonstrate that our measure is related to but distinct from other approaches to the measurement of gerrymandering, and has some clear advantages, above all as a complement to simulation-based approaches, and as a way to identify the specific neighborhoods most affected by gerrymandering. It can also be used prospectively by district-drawers who wish to create maps that reflect voter geography, but according to our analysis, that goal will sometimes be in conflict with the goal of partisan fairness.
07 评估数据质量：方法与应用
【题目】
Assessing Data Quality: An Approach and An Application
【作者】
Kelly McMann, Daniel Pemstein, Brigitte Seim, Jan Teorell and Staffan Lindberg
【摘要】
政治学家经常面临评估措施质量（有效性和可靠性）的挑战，以便在实质性研究中使用它们。虽然存在独立的评估工具，但研究人员很少将它们全面结合起来。此外，虽然大量文献为数据生产者提供信息，但数据消费者缺乏关于如何评估现有措施以用于实质性研究的指导。本文展示了一种由三部分组成的数据质量评估实用方法，该方法集成了互补的多方法工具来评估：（1）内容有效性；（2）数据生成过程的有效性和可靠性；（3）收敛效度。我们将质量评估方法应用于“民主多样性”(V-Dem)项目中的腐败措施，与其他现有的腐败措施相比，既说明了我们的标准，又发现了“民主多样性”项目措施的几个质量优势和劣势。
Political scientists routinely face the challenge of assessing the quality (validity and reliability) of measures in order to use them in substantive research. While stand-alone assessment tools exist, researchers rarely combine them comprehensively. Further, while a large literature informs data producers, data consumers lack guidance on how to assess existing measures for use in substantive research. We delineate a three-component practical approach to data quality assessment that integrates complementary multimethod tools to assess: (1) content validity; (2) the validity and reliability of the data generation process; and (3) convergent validity. We apply our quality assessment approach to the corruption measures from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, both illustrating our rubric and unearthing several quality advantages and disadvantages of the V-Dem measures, compared to other existing measures of corruption.
翻 译：郝若雯、宋文佳
校 对：陈宇洋、周嘉豪
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：李璐雅
二审：郭见田