国际顶刊 |《英国政治科学杂志》第52卷（2022年）第3期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了British Journal of Political Science（BJPS，《英国政治科学杂志》）2022年第52卷第3期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
British Journal of Political Science（BJPS，《英国政治科学杂志》）是一份基础广泛的杂志，旨在涵盖广泛的国家和专业领域的发展。该刊发表的论文来自政治科学的所有领域（包括政治理论、政治行为、公共政策和国际关系）以及相关学科（社会学、社会心理学、经济学和哲学）。凭借50多年来建立的声誉，该刊被广泛认为是其领域内的首要期刊之一。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=5.615，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第11（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Immigrant Political Representation and Local Ethnic Concentration: Evidence from a Swedish Refugee Placement Program
移民的政治代表性和当地的族裔集中度：以瑞典难民安置计划为例
Does Immigration Produce a Public Backlash or Public Acceptance? Time-Series, Cross-Sectional Evidence from Thirty European Democracies
移民引起公众抵制还是公众接受？时间序列下30个欧洲民主国家的典型证据
A New Electorate? Explaining the Party Preferences of Immigrant-Origin Voters at the 2017 Bundestag Election
新选民？解释2017年联邦议院选举中移民选民的政党偏好
Against the Flow: Differentiating Between Public Opposition to the Immigration Stock and Flow
反对移民流：区分公众对移民存量和移民流的不同反对态度
The Effects of Dehumanizing Attitudes about Black People on Whites’ Voting Decisions
对黑人的非人性态度对白人投票决定的影响
The Super-Predator Effect: How Negative Targeted Messages Demobilize Black Voters
超级掠夺者效应：负面定向信息如何遣散黑人选民
Did Terrorism Affect Voting in the Brexit Referendum?
恐怖主义是否影响了英国脱欧公投？
Leader Nationalism, Ethnic Identity, and Terrorist Violence
领袖民族主义、族群认同和恐怖主义暴力
Democratizing the Party: The Effects of Primary Election Reforms in Ghana
政党民主化：加纳初选改革的影响
How Does Uncertainty Affect Voters’ Preferences?
不确定性是如何影响选民的偏好的？
Deliberative Distortions? Homogenization, Polarization, and Domination in Small Group Discussions
审议扭曲？小组讨论中的同质化、极化与支配
Feminism as Epic Theory
作为史诗理论的女权主义
Rethinking Women’s Interests: An Inductive and Intersectional Approach to Defining Women’s Policy Priorities
反思妇女利益：界定妇女政策优先事项的归纳和交叉方法
Pronoun Usage as a Measure of Power Personalization: A General Theory with Evidence from the Chinese-Speaking World
度量权力个人化的代词使用：一个具有中文世界证据的一般理论
Taxing the Tails in a Global Economy: How Electoral, Party and Wage Bargaining Systems Interact to Determine the Taxes Paid by the Poor and Rich
在全球经济中对尾部征税：选举、政党和工资谈判系统如何相互作用以决定穷人和富人的纳税
Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity
政策类比有说服力吗？家庭预算类比与公众对紧缩政策的支持
When Does Income Inequality Cause Polarization?
收入不平等何时导致极化？
Winning Hearts and Minds for Rebel Rulers: Foreign Aid and Military Contestation in Syria
为反对派统治者赢得人心：叙利亚的外国援助和军事竞赛
Foreign Aid and Soft Power: Great Power Competition in Africa in the Early Twenty-first Century
对外援助和软实力：二十一世纪初大国在非洲的竞争
Violence Militarization and Perceptions of Law Enforcement in the Developing World: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment in Mexico
发展中国家的暴力军事化和执法观念：来自墨西哥联合实验的证据
PART 3
精选译文
01 移民的政治代表性和当地的族裔集中度：以瑞典难民安置计划为例
【题目】
Immigrant Political Representation and Local Ethnic Concentration: Evidence from a Swedish Refugee Placement Program
【作者】
Karl-Oskar Lindgren, Michael D. Nicholson, Sven Oskarsson
【摘要】
本研究利用瑞典的人口登记数据，研究居住在少数族裔高度集中地区的移民是否更有可能提名担任政治职务。这项研究利用了瑞典在20世纪80年代末和90年代初实施的一项难民安置计划，该计划限制了难民自由选择居住地的机会。文章提出的证据表明，居住在高种族密度地区的移民不太可能被提名并担任政治职务。由于许多国家在安置难民时都会考虑当地的情况，因此研究结果对当地的融合政策以及难民安置政策具有重要意义。
This study leverages population registry data from Sweden to examine whether immigrants who live in areas with a high concentration of ethnic minorities are more or less likely to be nominated for political office. It exploits a refugee placement program in place in Sweden during the late 1980s and early 1990s that restricted refugees’ opportunities to freely choose their place of residence. The article presents evidence that immigrants who live in areas with a high ethnic density are less likely to be nominated for political office. The findings have important implications for local integration policies as well as refugee placement policies, as many countries consider local context when resettling refugees.
02 移民引起公众抵制还是公众接受？时间序列下30个欧洲民主国家的典型证据
【题目】
Does Immigration Produce a Public Backlash or Public Acceptance? Time-Series, Cross-Sectional Evidence from Thirty European Democracies
【作者】
Christopher Claassen1 and Lauren McLaren
【摘要】
在经历了数十年相对大量的外国人流入后，移民现在已成为大多数欧洲国家重大政治分歧的中心，并与欧洲政治发展中最令人烦恼的问题之一——仇外右翼的兴起有关。然而，目前尚不清楚大量移民是否确实引起了公众的强烈反对，或者公众是否已经习惯并支持移民。这项研究结合了30个国家29年来的4000多个观点数据点，采用了移民情绪和移民关注度测量方法来测试反弹与习惯理论。作者发现了短期到中期公众强烈反对的证据——公众情绪变得消极，对移民的担忧增加。然而，这项研究也发现了一个长期习惯化过程的证据，它在十（担忧）到三十年（情绪）内抵消了反弹效应。
After decades of relatively high inflows of foreign nationals, immigration is now at the center of substantial political divisions in most European countries and has been implicated in one of the most vexing developments in European politics, the rise of the xenophobic right. However, it is not clear whether high levels of immigration actually do cause a public backlash, or whether publics become habituated to, and supportive of, immigration. This study tests these backlash and habituation theories using novel measures of immigration mood and immigration concern produced by combining over 4,000 opinion datapoints across twenty-nine years and thirty countries. The authors find evidence of a public backlash in the short to medium run, where mood turns negative and concern about immigration rises. Yet the study also finds evidence of a longer-run process of habituation that cancels out the backlash effect within one (concern) to three (mood) decades.
03 新选民？解释2017年联邦议院选举中移民选民的政党偏好
【题目】
A New Electorate? Explaining the Party Preferences of Immigrant-Origin Voters at the 2017 Bundestag Election
【作者】
Achim Goerres, Sabrina Jasmin Mayer and Dennis Christopher Spies
【摘要】
移民现在在许多西方国家的选民中构成了一个规模庞大且迅速增长的群体，但对其政党偏好的分析仍然有限。从理论上讲，移民的政党偏好可以用标准的选举理论和针对移民的特定方法来解释。在本文中，我们使用德国的最新数据对这两种分析视角进行了严格测试。将密歇根模型（Michigan model）及其三个中心解释变量——政党认同、问题取向和候选人评价——应用于移民和本土选民的政党偏好，我们发现，这个标准模型可以很好地解释这两个群体。相比之下，我们没有发现最突出的移民特定变量的直接影响，而且这些变量也没有对密歇根变量进行有意义的调节。然而，我们发现这些变量对政治态度和信仰的存在有很强的形成性影响：在德国生活的时间更长、德国身份感更强、受歧视经历更少的移民对密歇根模型主要解释变量项目的无反应显著减少。
Immigrants now constitute a sizeable and rapidly growing group among many Western countries’ electorates, but analyses of their party preferences remain limited. Theoretically, immigrants’ party preferences might be explained with both standard electoral theories and immigrant-specific approaches. In this article, we rigorously test both perspectives against each other using the most recent data from Germany. Applying the Michigan model, with its three central explanatory variables–party identification, issue orientations and candidate evaluations–to the party preferences of immigrant-origin and native voters, we find that this standard model can explain both groups well. In contrast, we find no direct effects of the most prominent immigrant-specific variables, and neither do these meaningfully moderate the Michigan variables. However, we find strong formative effects on the presence of political attitudes and beliefs: immigrants with a longer time spent in Germany, a stronger German identity and less experience of discrimination report significantly fewer item non-responses for the Michigan model’s main explanatory variables.
04 反对移民流：区分公众对移民存量和移民流的不同反对态度
【题目】
Against the Flow: Differentiating Between Public Opposition to the Immigration Stock and Flow
【作者】
Yotam Margalit and Omer Solodoch
【摘要】
大量关于移民的研究将本地公民对两个不同群体的态度混为一谈：未入籍外侨的移民存量以及移民流——即未来寻求进入该国并在该国生活的外国人。民众是否区分了对这两种不同类型移民的反对？如果是的话，区分的标准又是什么？本文从理论上分析了移民存量和移民流可能在本地人中引起不同看法的原因，并提供了来自美国的实验证据，表明本地人在系统上更接受前者。分析表明，这种“移民存量偏好”部分源于对居住在该国的人的道德义务感。该研究复制了两个被广泛引用的实验，表明移民存量与移民流的区别对于解释早期关于移民态度的研究结果，以及理解选民对旨在限制移民的政策偏好具有重要意义。
Vast research on immigration lumps together native citizens’ attitudes toward two different groups: the immigrant stock of non-naturalized resident aliens, and the immigrant flow, that is, the future arrival of foreigners seeking to enter and live in the country. Does popular opposition to immigration distinguish between the two, and if so, how? This article analyzes theoretically the reasons the stock and flow might induce different views among natives, and presents experimental evidence from the United States showing that natives are systematically more accepting of the former. The analysis indicates that this ‘stock premium’ partly stems from a sense of moral obligation toward people residing in the country. Replicating two widely cited experiments, the study shows that the stock–flow distinction has important implications for the interpretation of earlier findings on immigration attitudes, and for understanding voter preferences regarding policies designed to curtail immigration.
05 对黑人的非人性态度对白人投票决定的影响
【题目】
The Effects of Dehumanizing Attitudes about Black People on Whites’ Voting Decisions
【作者】
Ashley Jardina, Spencer Piston
【摘要】
政治学家早就注意到种族态度在选举政治中的关键作用。然而，2016年唐纳德·特朗普的当选引发了对主流种族态度理论及其政治影响的质疑。虽然现有的研究侧重于“文化”或“现代”形式的种族偏见，但本文认为，相当一部分美国白人令人不安地对黑人进行了非人化：也就是说，他们认为黑人不完全是人。毫不奇怪，考虑到唐纳德·特朗普竞选中公然的种族主义，这项研究还表明，在2016年共和党初选中，对黑人的非人性态度与对特朗普的支持比其他候选人的支持更密切相关。作者还发现证据表明，对黑人的非人性态度提高了唐纳德·特朗普在2016年总统选举中白人的投票份额。最后，非人性化态度与白人对巴拉克·奥巴马的评价呈负相关，即使在保持种族偏见标准不变的情况下也是如此。这些发现表明，种族主义的一种基本形式——对黑人的非人性化态度——可以有力地影响21世纪的候选人评价和投票决定。
Political scientists have long noted the key role racial attitudes can play in electoral politics. However, the 2016 election of Donald Trump raises questions about prevailing theories of racial attitudes and their political effects. While existing research focuses on ‘cultural’ or ‘modern’ forms of racial prejudice, this article argues that a sizeable portion of White Americans, disturbingly, dehumanize Black people: that is, they view Black people as less than fully human. Unsurprisingly, given the blatant racism of Donald Trump’s campaign, this study also demonstrates that dehumanizing attitudes toward Black people are more strongly associated with support for Trump than with support for other candidates in the 2016 Republican primary. The authors also find evidence that dehumanizing attitudes toward Black people bolstered Donald Trump’s vote share among Whites in the 2016 presidential election. Finally, dehumanizing attitudes are negatively associated with Whites’ evaluations of Barack Obama, even after holding standard measures of racial prejudice constant. These findings suggest that a fundamental form of racism – dehumanizing attitudes toward Black people – can powerfully shape candidate evaluations and voting decisions in the twenty-first century.
06 超级掠夺者效应：负面定向信息如何遣散黑人选民
【题目】
The Super-Predator Effect: How Negative Targeted Messages Demobilize Black Voters
【作者】
Christopher Stout, Keith Baker
【摘要】
本文评估了在特定群体眼中诋毁政客或政治实体的信息（此处定义为负面目标信息）是否会降低黑人的投票热情。它还探讨了为什么这样的信息能有效地遣散黑人选民。通过对全国代表性样本进行的一项调查实验，作者发现，当有证据表明黑人在其偏好的政党中存在种族主义时，黑人对投票的热情较低。白人和拉丁裔对同一刺激的反应不同。研究结果还证明，针对黑人的负面目标信息的有效性是由这种讨论改变党派同理心的能力驱动的。总的来说，结果表明有针对性的负面信息可以有效降低黑人投票率。然而，当事方也许能够通过与少数族裔社区接触的证据以表现出更大的同理心，来反击这种负面信息。
This article assesses whether messages that are framed to denigrate a politician or political entity in the eyes of a particular group – defined here as negative targeted messages – decreases Blacks’ enthusiasm to vote. It also explores why such messages are effective at demobilizing Black voters. Using a survey experiment implemented on a nationally representative sample, the authors find that Blacks are less enthusiastic about voting when presented with evidence of racism within their preferred political party. Whites and Latinxs do not respond similarly to the same stimulus. The findings also demonstrate evidence that the effectiveness of negative targeted messages towards Blacks is driven by the treatment’s ability to alter perceptions of party empathy. Overall, the results suggest that targeted negative messages can be effective at depressing Black turnout. However, parties may be able to counter this negative messaging with evidence of outreach to minority communities to demonstrate a greater sense of empathy.
07 恐怖主义是否影响了英国脱欧公投？
【题目】
Did Terrorism Affect Voting in the Brexit Referendum?
【作者】
Vincenzo Bove, Georgios Efthyvoulou, Harry Pickard
【摘要】
本文认为，公投结果的决定因素应在更广泛的公共安全关切的背景下进行评估，从而为近期关于英国脱欧和公众舆论形成的研究做出贡献。长期以来，英国公众一直将恐怖主义视为头等大事，比任何其他欧洲国家都更为关注。在英国本土发生的恐怖袭击事件提高了选民对安全问题的认识，以及他们在脱欧公投中的突出地位。该研究发现，受恐怖主义暴力影响及邻近地区、尤其是那些经历过更多轰动性袭击的地区，支持留欧的选票比例有所增加。分析个体层面的数据，结果表明，在恐怖袭击之后，公民更有可能重新考虑离开欧盟所涉及的安全风险。
This article contributes to the recent research on Brexit and public opinion formation by contending that the determinants of the referendum results should be evaluated against the background of wider public security concerns. The British public has long regarded terrorism as a top concern, more so than in any other European country. Terrorist attacks on UK soil raised voters’ awareness of security issues and their saliency in the context of the EU referendum. The study finds that locations affected by terrorist violence in their proximity exhibit an increase in the share of pro-Remain votes, particularly those that experienced more sensational attacks. Using individual-level data, the results show that in the aftermath of terrorist attacks, citizens are more likely to reconsider the security risks involved in leaving the EU.
08 领袖民族主义、种族认同和恐怖主义暴力
【题目】
Leader Nationalism, Ethnic Identity, and Terrorist Violence
【作者】
Seung-Whan Choi
【摘要】
民族主义是否助长族群的恐怖主义暴力？这是一个重要但尚未得到充分探讨的研究问题。本研究提供了理论论证、实证分析和案例研究。当总统和总理等政治领袖利用民族主义来支持合法性时，他们威胁到不受欢迎的族群的存在。反过来，这些族群团体更有可能以恐怖袭击作为回应。作者使用1970年至2009年来自163个国家的766个民族样本来检验这一论点。多层混合效应负二项回归结果证明了领袖民族主义是族群恐怖主义的重要驱动因素。在使用广义矩方法来解释可能的反向因果关系后，民族主义的有害影响仍然相同。对僧伽罗民族主义领袖与泰米尔猛虎组织的案例研究也支持民族主义与恐怖主义之间的联系。
Whether or not nationalism fuels terrorist violence by ethnic groups is an important yet underexplored research question. This study offers a theoretical argument, empirical analysis and a case study. When political leaders such as presidents and prime ministers use nationalism to shore up legitimacy, they threaten the existence of disfavored ethnic groups. In turn, those groups are more likely to respond with terrorist attacks. The author tests this argument using a sample of 766 ethnic groups across 163 countries from 1970 to 2009. The multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial regression results provide evidence that leader nationalism is a significant driver of ethnic terrorism. The detrimental effect of nationalism remains the same after using a generalized method of moments method to account for possible reverse causality. A case study of Sinhalese nationalist leaders versus Tamil Tigers also supports the nationalism and terrorism nexus.
09 政党民主化：加纳初选改革的影响
【题目】
Democratizing the Party: The Effects of Primary Election Reforms in Ghana
【作者】
Nahomi Ichino and Noah L. Nathan
【摘要】
加纳的一个主要政党最近扩大了初级选民的范围，这为评估当代新民主国家扩大选举权的效果提供了难得的机会。本文使用关于候选人加入和提名的原始数据集，表明扩大初选选民范围为以前被排除在外的社会群体的政客（例如妇女和该党核心国家联盟之外的族裔群体）开辟了通往公职的道路。作者提出，在以赞助为导向的政治体系中，候选人选择民主化有两个后果：购买选票将成为一种不太有效的策略，选民将变得更加多样化。这些变化反过来又会影响到寻求和赢得立法提名的政客类型。这表明，在党内初选中投票者的简单转变可以成为改善女性和其他代表性不足群体描述性代表的关键体制机制。
The recent expansion of the primary electorate by one of Ghana’s major parties offers a rare opportunity to assess the effects of franchise extensions in contemporary new democracies. Using an original dataset on candidate entry and nominations, this article shows that expanding the primary electorate opened paths to office for politicians from social groups that were previously excluded, such as women and ethnic groups outside the party’s core national coalition. The authors propose that democratizing candidate selection has two consequences in patronage-oriented political systems: vote buying will become a less effective strategy and the electorate will become more diverse. These changes, in turn, affect the types of politicians who seek and win legislative nominations. This suggests that a simple shift in who votes in intraparty primaries can be a key institutional mechanism for improving the descriptive representation of women and other under-represented groups.
10 不确定性是如何影响选民的偏好的？
【题目】
How Does Uncertainty Affect Voters’ Preferences?
【作者】
Love Christensen
【摘要】
理性的选民关心的是结果，然而政党在政策建议上的竞争，其结果永远不可能被完全知晓。政党能否利用这种不确定性来塑造公众舆论？本文为具有不确定结果的政策建议提出了一个空间偏好模型。这个模型得出了一个大型预登记调查实验的结果，该实验向受访者提供关于三个政策建议的影响的预测。调查结果显示，随着受访者对结果的信念发生变化，他们对提案的态度也在不断改变，而且政党对信念的影响不亚于无党派专家。与以前的研究相反，对于相互冲突的乐观和悲观的预测，受访者都给予同等的重视，从而抵消结果的不确定性。该研究表明，政党可以通过影响选民的信念来塑造公众舆论，而选民并不会被冲突信息所固有的不确定性所排斥。
Rational voters care about outcomes, while parties campaign on policy proposals, the outcomes of which are never perfectly known. Can parties exploit this uncertainty to shape public opinion? This article presents a spatial preference model for policy proposals with uncertain outcomes. It reports the results of a large pre-registered survey experiment that involved presenting respondents with predictions about the effects of three policy proposals. The findings show that respondents update their attitudes to the proposals as their beliefs about outcomes change, and that parties are no less able to influence beliefs than nonpartisan experts. Contrary to previous research, respondents discount outcome uncertainty by giving equal weight to conflicting optimistic and pessimistic predictions. The study shows that parties can shape public opinion by influencing voter beliefs, and that voters are not repelled by the uncertainty inherent in conflicting information.
11 审议扭曲？小组讨论中的同质化、极化与支配
【题目】
Deliberative Distortions? Homogenization, Polarization, and Domination in Small Group Discussions
【作者】
Robert C. Luskin , Gaurav Sood, James S. Fishkin and Kyu S. Hahn
【摘要】
人们普遍认为，审议通过完善“公意”，使参与者的政策态度更接近于他们“充分考虑”后的政策态度——他们假设可以拥有无限信息，并对此进行无限反思，从而增强民主。然而，也有人声称，所涉及的社会动态通常会使民众态度“同质化”（减少其差异）、“两极化”（使其态度逼近极端），或产生“支配”（使其总体平均值转向社会优势群体所持的态度）——民众态度的改变可能往往与参与者充分考虑的态度相去甚远，因此可能会扭曲而不是完善公意。本文使用了21项审议性民意测验中的2601对群体议题对来检验这些主张。令人欣慰的是，结果显示没有常规或强烈的同质化、极化或支配性。仅有的一点模式表明了一些微弱的同质化，但也有一些微弱的适中（相对于两极分化）和反对（而不是支配）——所有这些都是可以预料的，因为外部世界的力量在影响审议前的态度时，离心力略大于向心力。作者为这些期望和解释奠定了理论基础，并探究了研究结果，特别强调了审议在消除外界对审议前态度的影响方面的作用，以及观察到的同质化、两极化和支配对审议设计的依赖。
Deliberation is widely believed to enhance democracy by helping to refine the ‘public will’, moving its participants’ policy attitudes closer to their ‘full-consideration’ policy attitudes – those they would hypothetically hold with unlimited information, to which they gave unlimited reflection. Yet there have also been claims that the social dynamics involved generally ‘homogenize’ attitudes (decreasing their variance), ‘polarize’ them (moving their means toward the nearer extreme), or engender ‘domination’ (moving their overall means toward those of the attitudes held by the socially advantaged) – attitude changes that may often be away from the participants’ full-consideration attitudes and may thus distort rather than refine the public will. This article uses 2,601 group-issue pairs in twenty-one Deliberative Polls to examine these claims. Reassuringly, the results show no routine or strong homogenization, polarization, or domination. What little pattern there is suggests some faint homogenization, but also some faint moderation (as opposed to polarization) and opposition (as opposed to domination)–all as is to be expected when the outside-world forces shaping pre-deliberation attitudes are slightly more centrifugal than centripetal. The authors lay out a theoretical basis for these expectations and interpretations and probe the study’s results, highlighting, among other things, deliberation’s role in undoing outside world effects on pre-deliberation attitudes and the observed homogenization’s, polarization’s, and domination’s dependence on deliberative design.
12 作为史诗理论的女权主义
【题目】
Feminism as Epic Theory
【作者】
Kate M. Phelan
【摘要】
谢尔顿·沃林（Sheldon Wolin）确定了政治理论中的一个特殊传统，他称之为“史诗理论”。他解释说，史诗理论相当于政治理论中库恩提出的科学革命。本文将史诗理论与科学革命进行类比，以表明女性主义是一个最真实意义上的史诗理论，这一点沃林并没有完全理解。之所以如此，有两个原因。首先，女权主义是一个整体的理论。其次，它与其说是一项发现，不如说是一项世界发明。作者试图解释女权主义在其不可能存在的情况下的存在，并展示女权主义所代表的巨大成就。
Sheldon Wolin identifies a particular tradition within political theory that he calls ‘epic theory’. Epic theory, he explains, is political theory’s equivalent of the Kuhnian scientific revolution. This article takes up the analogy between epic theory and scientific revolution to show that feminism is an epic theory in the truest sense of the term, a sense not fully grasped by Wolin. It is so for two reasons. First, it is a theory of the whole. Second, it is less a discovery than an invention of the world. The author seeks to account for the existence of feminism in the face of its impossibility, and to demonstrate the magnitude of the achievement that feminism represents.
13 反思妇女利益：界定妇女政策优先事项的归纳和交叉方法
【题目】
Rethinking Women’s Interests: An Inductive and Intersectional Approach to Defining Women’s Policy Priorities
【作者】
Tevfik Murat Yildirim
【摘要】
在关于妇女实质性代表权的大量文献中，大部分文献都以关于妇女作为一个群体的性质的重要先验假设作为其出发点。最近的一项工作呼吁重新思考其中的许多假设，建议采用归纳法来界定妇女的利益。根据这一观点，本文利用最近构建的数据集，对过去75年近100万美国人的政策优先事项进行了编码，以探讨什么构成了妇女的利益，以及优先事项中的性别差异是否跨越党派和种族分歧。结果表明，在许多政策类别中存在着一致的性别差距，妇女特别关注传统上与“妇女利益”问题相关的政策领域。虽然在许多政策领域，妇女与其他妇女分享政策优先事项的可能性比与具有相同种族或党派背景的男性同行更大，但研究结果还表明，不同政策领域的妇女之间存在很大的差异，这对妇女利益的代表性具有重大的政策影响。
Much of the vast literature on the substantive representation of women takes as its point of departure important a priori assumptions about the nature of women as a group. Calling for a rethink of many of those assumptions, a recent body of work recommends an inductive approach to defining women’s interests. In line with this view, this article draws on a recently constructed dataset that codes nearly a million Americans’ policy priorities over the past 75 years to explore what constitutes women’s interests and whether gender differences in priorities cut across partisan and racial divisions. The results suggest there are consistent gender gaps across a large number of policy categories, with women showing particular concern for policy areas traditionally associated with issues of ‘women’s interests’. While in many policy areas women were more likely to share policy priorities with other women than with their male counterparts of the same race or partisan background, the results also document considerable heterogeneity among women in various policy areas, which has major policy implications for the representation of women’s interests.
14 度量权力个性化的代词使用：一个具有中文世界证据的一般理论
【题目】
Pronoun Usage as a Measure of Power Personalization: A General Theory with Evidence from the Chinese-Speaking World
【作者】
Amy H. Liu
【摘要】
如何事先识别并度量增长的权力个性化？威权主义文献中现存的措施传统上侧重于制度约束，最近则侧重于个人行为——比如从政府机构中清除反对派成员（并将盟友纳入政府机构）。本文提供了一种不同的策略来研究领导者的个人言辞。它关注第一人称代词的使用模式。作者认为，当领导人将权力个人化时，他们不太可能使用“我”（一个与信用主张和责任最小化相关的代词），而更可能使用“我们”（领导人代表——或与民众一起发言）。为了验证这一论点，该研究重点关注了独立以来整个华语世界（即中国和新加坡）所有的国家元首所有主要预定演讲。它在第一人称代词和政治约束之间找到了一个稳健的模式。为了确保结果不受中国样本的影响，本文还考虑了其他四位政治领导人的言论：阿尔巴尼亚的霍查、朝鲜的金日成、匈牙利的欧尔班和厄瓜多尔的科雷亚。这一项目的意义在于，领导者的谈话方式可以让人们深入了解他们如何看待自己的统治。
How can the growing personalization of power be identified and measured ex ante? Extant measures in the authoritarian literature have traditionally focused on institutional constraints and more recently on individual behaviour – such as purging opposition members from (and packing allies into) government bodies. This article offers a different strategy that examines leaders’ individual rhetoric. It focuses on patterns of pronoun usage for the first person. The author argues that as leaders personalize power, they are less likely to use ‘I’ (a pronoun linked to credit claiming and blame minimizing) and more likely to use ‘we’ (the leader speaks for – or with – the populace). To test this argument, the study focuses on all major, scheduled speeches by all chief executives in the entire Chinese-speaking world – that is, China and Singapore– since independence. It finds a robust pattern between first-person pronouns and political constraints. To ensure the results are not driven by the Chinese sample, the rhetoric of four other political leaders is considered: Albania’s Hoxha, North Korea’s Kim Il Sung, Hungary’s Orbán and Ecuador’s Correa. The implications of this project suggest that how leaders talk can provide insights into how they perceive their rule.
15 在全球经济中对尾部征税：选举、政党和工资谈判系统如何相互作用以决定穷人和富人的纳税
【题目】
Taxing the Tails in a Global Economy: How Electoral, Party and Wage Bargaining Systems Interact to Determine the Taxes Paid by the Poor and Rich
【作者】
Jude C. Hays
【摘要】
关于选举制度和收入再分配的一项重要研究认为，比例代表制（PR）导致税收和转移政策以牺牲富人为代价惠及穷人。这是因为比例代表制产生了保护穷人和中产阶级的中左翼联盟。然而，比例代表制国家往往严重依赖消费税，而对利润的征税则相对较轻，这两者都与这一预期不符。这两项政策都是倒退性的，似乎以牺牲穷人为代价使富人受益。本文认为，比例代表制与三党制多党主义相结合，并不像人们普遍认为的那样对富人怀有敌意，因此，了解选举制度和政党制度如何与劳动力市场制度相互作用，以解释观察到的令人困惑的税收模式是很重要的。作者发展了一个理论模型，并评估了其对一个生产已经跨国的世界的实证意义。
A prominent line of research on electoral systems and income redistribution argues that proportional representation (PR) leads to tax-and-transfer policies that benefit the poor at the expense of the rich. This is because PR produces encompassing center-left coalitions that protect the poor and middle classes. Yet countries with PR electoral systems tend to rely heavily on consumption taxes and tax profits lightly, both of which are inconsistent with this expectation. Both policies are regressive and seem to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor. This article argues that PR electoral institutions, when combined with trichotomous multi-partism, are not as hostile to the rich as commonly believed, and that it is important to understand how electoral and party systems interact with labor market institutions in order to explain the puzzling pattern of taxation that is observed. The author develops a theoretical model and evaluates its empirical implications for a world in which production has become multinational.
16 政策类比有说服力吗？家庭预算类比与公众对紧缩政策的支持
【题目】
Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity
【作者】
Lucy Barnes and Timothy Hicks
【摘要】
精英简化问题的方式塑造了复杂政策问题的公众舆论。鉴于隐喻和类比作为解决认知问题工具的普遍性，运用类比通常被提议作为这种影响的工具。例如，选民接受紧缩的一个突出解释是他们通过类比家庭借贷来理解政府赤字。事实上，有理论支撑的理由认为，家庭财务类比代表了类比推理对政策偏好的因果影响的最可能情况。本文使用英国的原始调查数据对这种最佳情况进行了研究。它展示了观察与实验分析，没有发现从家庭类比到政府预算偏好的因果关系证据。相反，对家庭类比的认可是在事后援引的，以证明对财政整顿的支持。
Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation.
17 收入不平等何时导致极化？
【题目】
When Does Income Inequality Cause Polarization?
【作者】
Jacob R. Gunderson
【摘要】
学者们长期以来一直关注收入不平等对民主的影响。人们一般认为，高度的收入不平等与政党采取两极分化立场有关，因为左翼主张增加再分配，而右翼则旨在巩固经济精英的地位。本文认为，政党立场与收入不平等之间的联系取决于政党基础如何按收入和全国选举的议题内容进行排序。本文使用1996年至2016年欧洲国家选举数据表明，当按收入对党派进行分类时，以及当经济问题在选举中相对突出时，收入不平等与政党在经济问题上的两极分化呈正相关。然而，当这些因素较弱时，作者发现收入不平等与两极分化之间没有关系。
Scholars have long been concerned with the implications of income inequality for democracy. Conventional wisdom suggests that high income inequality is associated with political parties taking polarized positions as the left advocates for increased redistribution while the right aims to entrench the position of economic elites. This article argues that the connection between party positions and income inequality depends on how party bases are sorted by income and the issue content of national elections. It uses data from European national elections from 1996 to 2016 to show that income inequality has a positive relationship with party polarization on economic issues when partisans are sorted with respect to income and when economic issues are relatively salient in elections. When these factors are weak, however, the author finds no relationship between income inequality and polarization.
18 为反对派统治者赢得人心：叙利亚的外国援助和军事竞赛
【题目】
Winning Hearts and Minds for Rebel Rulers: Foreign Aid and Military Contestation in Syria
【作者】
Allison Carnegie, Kimberly Howe, Adam G. Lichtenheld, Dipali Mukhopadhyay
【摘要】
冲突地区外援的一个主要目标是帮助政治行为者赢得公民的心。以前的研究侧重于向国家行为者提供援助，而本文考察了援助对叛军治理的影响。它认为，在军事控制毫无争议的情况下，援助只会支持叛军统治者的观点。在有争议的地区，如果叛军无法提供保护，他们就会失去信誉，而且在竞争对手拥挤的不安全环境中，他们很难提供服务——也很难获得服务的信用。利用叙利亚内战的新数据，这篇文章表明，援助改善了无争议地区反对派委员会的意见，但没有改善经历反叛内部冲突的社区的意见。它还通过对阿勒颇市和萨拉克布居民的深入访谈，探讨了潜在机制。研究结果显示，援助、军事竞争和治理之间的关系比先前的研究表明的更为微妙，这对学者和决策者都有影响。
A primary objective of foreign aid in conflict zones is to help political actors win citizens’ ‘hearts and minds’. Previous studies have focused on assistance provided to state actors; however, this article examines aid’s impact on rebel governance. It argues that aid only bolsters opinions of rebel governors where military control is uncontested. In contested areas, rebels lose credibility if they cannot offer protection, and they have difficulty delivering – and receiving credit for – services in insecure environments crowded with competitors. Using novel data from the Syrian civil war, this article shows that aid improves opinions of opposition councils in uncontested areas but not in communities experiencing intra-rebel conflict. It also explores the underlying mechanisms using in-depth interviews with residents of Aleppo City and Saraqeb. The findings reveal a more nuanced relationship among aid, military competition and governance than prior studies have suggested, which has implications for both scholars and policy makers.
19 对外援助和软实力：二十一世纪初大国在非洲的竞争
【题目】
Foreign Aid and Soft Power: Great Power Competition in Africa in the Early Twenty-first Century
【作者】
Robert A. Blair , Robert Marty and Philip Roessler
【摘要】
对外援助是一种有效的软实力工具吗？它是否能使人们对捐助国及其所推崇的价值观产生亲近感？本文以中国对非洲的援助和美国的竞争性援助制度为背景回答了这些问题。该研究结合了来自Afrobarometer、AidData数据库以及非洲财政部和规划部的援助信息管理系统的38个非洲国家的数据。笔者使用空间差分法来分离中国和美国援助的因果效应。研究发现，中国对非洲的援助并没有增加（事实上可能减少）受援助者对中国的支持。相比之下，美国的援助似乎增加了受援助者对美国的支持，并且加强了受援国对自由民主价值观的承诺，例如对选举重要性的信念。中国的援助似乎并没有削弱这种承诺，而且可能加强这种信念。该研究还发现，中国的援助增加了受援国对英国、法国和其他前殖民国家的支持。研究结果促进了我们对于以下事实的理解，即竞争性援助制度产生软实力和，并促进政治原则和理想的传播。
Is foreign aid an effective instrument of soft power? Does it generate affinity for donor countries and the values they espouse? This article answers these questions in the context of Chinese aid to Africa and the competing aid regime of the United States. The study combines data on thirty-eight African countries from Afrobarometer, AidData, and the Aid Information Management Systems of African finance and planning ministries. The authors use spatial difference-in-differences to isolate the causal effects of Chinese and US aid. The study finds that Chinese aid to Africa does not increase (and may in fact reduce) beneficiaries’ support for China. By contrast, US aid appears to increase support for the United States and to strengthen recipients’ commitment to liberal democratic values, such as the belief in the importance of elections. Chinese aid does not appear to weaken this commitment, and may strengthen it. The study also finds that Chinese aid increases support for the UK, France and other former colonial powers. These findings advance our understanding of the conditions under which competing aid regimes generate soft power and facilitate the transmission of political principles and ideals.
20 发展中国家的暴力军事化和执法观念：来自墨西哥联合实验的证据
【题目】
Violence Militarization and Perceptions of Law Enforcement in the Developing World: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment in Mexico
【作者】
Gustavo Flores-Macías, Jessica Zarkin
【摘要】
尽管越来越多的研究表明，将军队警察化用于国内治安是适得其反的，但这一日益盛行的政策在发展中国家得到了广泛支持。这项研究增进了我们对军事化影响执法感知的理解：视觉特征是否影响了对有效性的感知、对公民自由的尊重、对腐败的倾向以及对自身社区军事化的接受。基于在墨西哥进行的一项具有全国代表性的、基于图像的联合实验，作者发现，军事武器和军装增强了对效能的感知和对公民自由的尊重，并且随着军事存在的增加，军装的影响变得更大。这项研究还发现，性别影响人们对公民自由和腐败的看法，但对肤色没有影响。研究结果表明，军事化的一个核心特征与更大的暴力行为有关——军事武器——是解释支持态度的一个关键因素，而矛盾的是，女性可以在改善执法观念方面发挥关键作用。
Although a growing body of research suggests that the constabularization of the military for domestic policing is counterproductive, this increasingly prevalent policy has nonetheless enjoyed widespread support in the developing world. This study advances our understanding of the consequences of militarization for perceptions of law enforcement: whether visual features shape perceptions of effectiveness, respect for civil liberties, proclivity for corruption and acceptance of militarization in one’s own neighborhood. Based on a nationally representative, image-based, conjoint experiment conducted in Mexico, the authors find that military weapons and uniforms enhance perceptions of effectiveness and respect for civil liberties, and that the effect of military uniform becomes greater with increased military presence. The study also finds that gender shapes perceptions of civil liberties and corruption, but detects no effect for skin color. The findings suggest that a central feature of militarization linked to greater violence – military weapons – is paradoxically a key factor explaining favorable attitudes, and that women can play a crucial role in improving perceptions of law enforcement.
翻 译：石寒冰、李璐雅、郭见田
校 对：冯天卓、郭见田、刘依云
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：李璐雅
二审：郭见田