国际顶刊 |《比较政治研究》第55卷（2022年）第9-11期
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了Comparative Political Studies（CPS，《比较政治研究》）2022年第55卷第9-11期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
CPS各期封面
Comparative Political Studies（CPS，《比较政治研究》）是一个比较政治学者和学生交流思想的国际顶刊之一。期刊刊载的文章包括了全球学者关于比较方法论、理论和研究的创新工作。该刊力图向读者展现全球范围内比较政治研究的全景式画面：从第三世界的民主到中东的文武关系，从东欧的选举制度和政党政治到拉丁美洲的经济表现，从比较北美和西欧的政治庇护到亚洲国家的民族冲突。《比较政治研究》被认为是政治科学中比较政治子领域最为重要的期刊之一。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=3.955，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第33（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Volume 55 - Issue 9 - August 2022
The Political Legacies of Rebel Rule: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Cote d’Ivoire
反叛者统治的政治遗产：来自科特迪瓦的自然实验的证据
Electoral Rules, Women’s Representation and the Qualification of Politicians
选举规则，女性代表和政治家的资历
Sovereign Risk and Government Change: Elections, Ideology and Experience
主权风险与政府变化：选举、意识形态与经验
Staying Out of Trouble: Criminal Cases Against Russian Mayors
远离麻烦：针对俄罗斯市长的犯罪指控
How Soft Propaganda Persuades
软宣传如何影响人们
Policing in a Post-Conflict State: Evidence from Uganda
后冲突国家中的警务：来自乌干达的证据
Volume 55 - Issue 10 - September 2022
Work and Demand Making: Productionist and Consumptionist Politics in Latin America
工作与需求制造：拉丁美洲的生产主义和消费主义政治
Voting in Clientelistic Social Networks: Evidence From the Philippines
在庇护主义社会网络中投票：来自菲律宾的证据
Oil “Rents” and Political Development: What Do We Really Know About the Curse of Natural Resources?
石油“租金”与政治发展：我们对自然资源的诅咒到底了解多少？
Foreign Anti-Mainstream Propaganda and Democratic Publics
外国反主流宣传与民主公众
From Drug Lords to Police State: The Effects of Order Transition on Local Economies
从毒枭领地到警察国家：秩序转型对地方经济的影响
Volume 55 - Issue 11 - September 2022
Patrimony at Risk: Market Uncertainty and Right-Wing Voting
遗产风险：市场不确定性和右翼投票
Frightened Mandarins: The Adverse Effects of Fighting Corruption on Local Bureaucracy
惊慌失措的官僚：反腐败对地方政府的不利影响
Violence and Business Interest in Social Welfare: Evidence from Mexico
社会福利中的暴力与商业利益：来自墨西哥的证据
Imperial Rule and Long-Run Development: Evidence on the Role of Human Capital in Ottoman Europe
帝国统治与长期发展：来自奥斯曼欧洲地区人力资本作用的证据
How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on Checks and Balances: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey
选民如何应对总统对制衡的破坏：来自土耳其调查实验的证据
PART 3
精选译文
Volume 55 - Issue 9 - August 2022
01 反叛者统治的政治遗产：来自科特迪瓦的自然实验的证据
【题目】
The Political Legacies of Rebel Rule: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Cote d’Ivoire
【作者】
Philip A. Martin, Giulia Piccolino, Jeremy S. Speight
【摘要】
遭受反叛者统治如何影响公民在武装冲突结束后的政治态度？我们将来自科特迪瓦的原始调查数据与一项建立在任意的停火线位置基础上的自然实验相结合，以评估遭受新生力量（FN）的反叛者统治对科特迪瓦人之民主公民意识的影响。我们发现在国家重新统一七年后，被新生力量统治的社区中的个体对地方政府机构持更加负面的态度，承担公民义务意愿更为薄弱，并且更有可能纵容超出法律权限的行为。反叛者统治的影响大于极端生活贫困的影响，并且在与反叛者同族群和族群不同的的情况下都存在。利用定性的和调查的证据，我们提出了三个解释为何遭受反叛者统治削弱了公民与国家的关系的理论机制：服从类似国家的权威的规范之破坏，地方自助机构的形成导致了对重新部署的国家的负面看法，以及经济恢复预期未能实现导致的不满情绪。我们的研究有助于对战争、公民身份和国家建设间联系的讨论。
How does exposure to rebel rule affect citizens’ political attitudes after armed conflicts end? We combine original survey data from Cote d’Ivoire with a natural experiment based on the arbitrary location of a ceasefire boundary to estimate the effects of exposure to rebel rule by the Forces Nouvelles (FN) on Ivorians’ sense of democratic citizenship. Our findings show that individuals in communities ruled by the FN held more negative attitudes about local government institutions 7 years after the reunification of the country, held weaker commitments to civic obligations, and were more likely to condone extralegal actions. The effects of rebel rule are larger than the effects of extreme lived poverty and appear among both rebel coethnics and non-coethnics. Using qualitative and survey evidence, we propose three theoretical mechanisms to explain why exposure to rebel rule weakened citizen-state relations: disrupted norms of compliance with state-like authorities, the formation of local self-help institutions leading to negative assessments of the redeployed state, and resentment due to unmet expectations of economic recovery. Our study informs debates about the links between war, citizenship, and statebuilding.
02 选举规则，女性代表和政治家的资历
【题目】
Electoral Rules, Women’s Representation and the Qualification of Politicians
【作者】
Paola Profeta, Eleanor F. Woodhouse
【摘要】
相比于多数决制，比例制选举规则与更多的女性代表相联系。为提供关于选举规则对女性的代表状况与政治家的资历状况影响的因果关系证据，我们搜集了1987-2013年间意大利所有层级政府中政治家的面板数据，并分析了意大利2005年的一项改革，该项改革将全国性选举的规则从（主要是）多数制更改为比例制，但没有影响次国家层面的选举。我们发现这项改革导致当选的女性人数增加了5%，同时并没有降低政治家的（以教育水平与政治经历所衡量的）总体资历水平。我们的证据显示，资历最高的女性并未入选；如果最优秀的女性候选人当选的话，当选政治家的总体资历可能会提升（而非保持不变）。
Proportional electoral rules are associated with more substantial women’s representation than majoritarian ones. To provide causal evidence that electoral rules affect women’s representation and the qualification of politicians, we collect panel data on the universe of Italian politicians from all levels of government over the period 1987-2013 and analyse an Italian reform which, in 2005, changed the electoral rule for national elections from (mostly) majoritarian to proportional, but did not affect subnational level elections. We find that this reform increased the number of women elected by 5%, while not decreasing the overall qualification levels of politicians, measured by the level of education and political experience. We provide evidence that the highest qualification women are not elected and that the overall qualification of elected politicians could have increased (rather than remain constant) if the best women candidates had been elected.
03 主权风险与政府变化：选举、意识形态与经验
【题目】
Sovereign Risk and Government Change: Elections, Ideology and Experience
【作者】
Sarah M. Brooks, Raphael Cunha, Layna Mosley
【摘要】
全球资本市场能够对发展中国家的选举作出显著的反应，从而影响政府获得金融支持的机会，有时还会引发更广泛的危机。不同于一些传统观点，我们认为投资者不会对左倾政党和候选人的当选作出系统的反应。考虑到各政党——尤其是左翼政党——政策的多样性，政府的意识形态通常是一种不明确的启发。我们因此预计：无论是一般的选举或产生了特定党派倾向结果的选举，都不与主权融资成本的显著变化相联系。我们进一步推测：作为投资者不确定未来政策变化的反映，左倾政党的当选会给主权债务市场带来不稳定性。这种不稳定性在新政府上台时尤为显著；然而，随着时间推移，政府的政策表现使得投资者能够对政策风险作出越发精确的预估。不稳定性会对实体经济和政府的债务管理能力产生影响。我们使用1994-2015年74个发展中国家之主权债务利差和信用违约互换价格的月度数据以验证核心假设、并发现了支持其的证据。
Global capital markets can react dramatically to elections in developing countries, affecting governments’ access to finance and sometimes setting off broader crises. We argue, contrary to some conventional wisdom, that investors do not systematically react to the election of left-leaning parties and candidates. Government ideology is often an imprecise heuristic, given the diversity in policies among parties, especially those on the left. We therefore expect that neither elections generally, nor elections that produce specific partisan outcomes, are associated with significant changes in sovereign financing costs. Yet we also predict that the election of left-leaning parties will generate volatility in sovereign bond markets, reflecting investors’ uncertainty over future policy outcomes. This volatility is especially pronounced when new governments take office; over time, however, government policy performance enables investors to make increasingly precise estimates of political risk. Volatility has implications for the real economy, as well as for governments’ ability to manage their debt. We test, and find support for, our core expectations using monthly data on sovereign bond spreads and credit default swap prices for 74 developing countries from 1994–2015.
04 远离麻烦：针对俄罗斯市长的犯罪指控
【题目】
Staying Out of Trouble: Criminal Cases Against Russian Mayors
【作者】
Noah Buckley, Ora John. Reuter, Michael Rochlitz, Anton Aisin
【摘要】
虽然对精英的镇压在威权主义国家经常发生，但我们对哪些精英会成为目标还知之甚少。本文利用一个关于俄罗斯大城市市长被起诉情况的原始数据集，来考察使得精英更容易被逮捕的各种因素。我们认为，在如俄罗斯那样的选举威权主义统治下，政权领导人并不情愿逮捕受大众欢迎的官员。这些官员控制了对政权有用的政治资本，并且逮捕著名的官员会激起公众抵制。我们利用关于2002-2018年期间针对俄罗斯最大的221个城市之市政领导的所有逮捕情况的原始数据集来检验我们的观点。我们发现以较大的选票差距在选举中胜出的市长被逮捕的可能性更小。此外，我们还发现：（1）市长的职业背景与被逮捕的可能性不相关，（2）反对派市长被逮捕的可能性要高4倍，还有（3）为当权者进行投票动员并不能保护其免遭逮捕。
Although repression against elites is a common occurrence in authoritarian regimes, we know little about which elites are targeted. This paper uses an original dataset on the prosecution of mayors in large Russian cities to examine the factors that make elites more likely to be arrested. We argue that in electoral authoritarian regimes like Russia, regime leaders are reluctant to arrest popular officials. Such officials command political capital that is useful to the regime, and arrests of prominent officials can produce popular backlash. We examine this argument using an original dataset on all arrests of municipal leaders in Russia’s 221 largest cities between 2002 and 2018. We find that mayors who won their elections by large margins are less likely to be arrested. In addition, we document several other substantively important patterns: (1) a mayor’s professional background is not related to the likelihood of arrest, (2) opposition mayors are four times more likely to be arrested, and (3) mobilization of votes for the regime is not protective against arrest.
05 软宣传如何影响人们
【题目】
How Soft Propaganda Persuades
【作者】
Daniel C. Mattingly, Elaine Yao
【摘要】
大量有影响力的学术研究认为威权主义政权设计了有意高压的“硬”宣传，以表现政权的力量。相反，在本项研究中，我们将宣传的能量与诸如电视剧和病毒式传播的社交媒体内容的“软”宣传的情感力量相联系。我们进行了一系列实验：使6800名在中国的调查对象观看从电视剧、官方支持的社交帐号和国营新闻节目中截取的宣传视频，其中包含受中国共产党支持的民族主义信息。不同于认为宣传无说服力的理论，我们发现宣传有效地激起了愤怒及排外情绪和行为，其中强烈的排外态度持续了高达一周。然而，我们同样发现民族主义宣传对民众对中国政府表现的认知或自我报告的抗议政府的意愿没有影响。
An influential body of scholarship argues that authoritarian regimes design “hard” propaganda that is intentionally heavy-handed in order to signal regime power. In this study, by contrast, we link the power of propaganda to the emotional power of “soft” propaganda such as television dramas and viral social media content. We conduct a series of experiments in which we expose over 6800 respondents in China to real propaganda videos drawn from television dramas, state-backed social media accounts, and state-run newscasts, each containing nationalist messages favored by the Chinese Communist Party. In contrast to theories that propaganda is unpersuasive, we show that propaganda effectively manipulates anger as well as anti-foreign sentiment and behavior, with heightened anti-foreign attitudes persisting up to a week. However, we also find that nationalist propaganda has no effect on perceptions of Chinese government performance or on self-reported willingness to protest against the state.
06 后冲突国家中的警务：来自乌干达的证据
【题目】
Policing in a Post-Conflict State: Evidence from Uganda
【作者】
David A. Dow
【摘要】
后冲突背景下的政府如何在其国内提供警务？我认为，领导人在设定警务基础设施的地理供给中，既要考虑选举问题，又要考虑安全威胁。聚焦于乌干达的案例，我认为警务的地域扩展遵循着一种明确的政治逻辑。首先，我利用警务基础设施的面板数据，证明在曾经对现任政权的选举支持率较低的县，对其的建设有所增加。此外，我发现，受暴力困扰的各县更有可能经历这一建设的增加，但尤其是在现任者受到更多支持的地区。最后，本文认为：（1）接近警务基础设施与对警察个人态度更差相关联，（二）警务基础设施建设的增加对选民投票率的减少，及对现任总统得票率的增加，皆产生显著影响。这些发现对后冲突时期的重建、稳定和暴力有着重要的影响。
How do governments in post-conflict settings provide for policing within their countries? I argue that leaders respond to both electoral concerns and security threats in shaping the geographic provision of policing infrastructure. Focusing on Uganda, I contend that the territorial expansion of policing has followed a distinct political logic. First, I use panel data on police infrastructure to demonstrate increased construction in counties with previously lower electoral support for the incumbent regime. Additionally, I find that counties with violence are more likely to experience increases in construction, but especially in areas where the incumbent has more support. Finally, I show that (1) proximity to police infrastructure is associated with worse individual perceptions of the police and (2) that increased construction of police infrastructure has large significant effects on reducing voter turnout while increasing vote share for the incumbent president. These findings have important implications for post-conflict reconstruction, stability, and violence.
Volume 55 - Issue 10 - September 2022
01 工作和需求制造：拉丁美洲的生产主义和消费主义政治
【题目】
Work and Demand Making: Productionist and Consumptionist Politics in Latin America
【作者】
Brian Palmer-Rubin
【摘要】
拉丁美洲的工作世界如何影响工人维护其利益的方式？在多大程度上，那些在整个地区都非常突出的关于工作、工作条件和工资的“生产主义”要求，会被消费主义或政治要求所“取代”？既有文献对正式工作和非正式工作进行了全面的区分，但本文进一步探讨了跨越正式和非正式区分的个体化工作特征。通过分析四个拉美国家首都的调查数据，作者发现，基于工作的原子化和不安全感抑制了工作领域的需求制造。尽管方式存在差异，这些工作特征也影响了对国家的需求制造。不安全感与从生产主义到消费主义和政治需求的转变有关，而原子化则与更普遍的遣散问题有关。这些发现对当前劳动力市场结构调整中工人利益的代表性具有影响，并提出了劳动力能否在结构调整中重新获得发言权的问题。
How does the world of work in Latin America affect the way workers act to defend their interests? To what extent have “productionist” demands, those concerning jobs, work conditions, and wages, which are highly salient across the region, been “displaced” by consumptionist or political demands? While the literature has distinguished formal and informal work grosso modo, we explore individual traits of work, which cross-cut the formal-informal distinction. Analyzing survey data from four Latin American capital cities, we find, not surprisingly, that both work-based atomization and insecurity depress demand making in the work arena. But these traits of work also affect demand making on the state, albeit in somewhat different ways. Insecurity is associated with a shift from productionist to consumptionist and political demands, while atomization is associated with a more generalized demobilization across issues. These findings have implications for the representation of worker interests in light of current labor market restructuring and raise the question if labor can reclaim an important voice in that restructuring process.
02 在庇护主义社会网络中投票：来自菲律宾的证据
【题目】
Voting in Clientelistic Social Networks: Evidence From the Philippines
【作者】
Nico Ravanilla, Michael Davidson, Jr., Allen Hicken
【摘要】
在庇护主义环境中，选民想知道哪些政治家最有可能实现目标利益。本文认为，选民会在这些情况中利用他们与候选人的社会邻近性来进行启发式投票。为验证理论，作者依靠当地的命名惯例来重建横跨菲律宾整个城市（索索贡市）的家庭网络，并评估选民和当地候选人之间的血缘和婚姻联系。作者还收集了894名随机抽取的选民在选举前的倾向性和实际投票行为的调查数据。研究表明，选民和候选人之间的分离程度不仅可以解释以往研究发现的总体选举结果，而且在控制了选举前的倾向性之后，还可以解释个人的投票选择。作者证明，这是因为私人诱因是通过家庭网络传导的。这些发现凸显了选民与政治家的社会邻近性在选举中的重要性，它是选民在投票时选择支持谁的信息捷径。
In clientelistic environments, voters want to know which politicians are most likely to deliver on targeted benefits. We argue that in these contexts, voters use their social proximity with candidates as heuristics to inform vote choice. To test our theory, we rely on local naming conventions to reconstruct family networks spanning one whole city in the Philippines and assess blood and marriage links between voters and local candidates. We then collect survey data on pre-election candidate leanings and actual voting behavior of 894 randomly drawn voters. We show that the degrees of separation between voters and candidates explain not only aggregate electoral outcomes, as previous studies have found, but also individual vote choice, controlling for pre-election leanings. We demonstrate that this is because private inducements are channeled through family networks. These findings highlight the electoral importance of social proximity with politicians as an information shortcut when voters are choosing whom to support at the polls.
03 石油“租金”与政治发展：我们对自然资源的诅咒到底了解多少？
【题目】
Oil “Rents” and Political Development: What Do We Really Know About the Curse of Natural Resources?
【作者】
Sarah M. Brooks, Marcus J. Kurtz
【摘要】
对石油财富的政治影响的研究已经有二十多年的历史，尽管既有文献取得了许多进展，但资源租金这一核心概念仍未得到充分的理论化，乃至于很好的衡量。本文认为，错误的衡量方式对关于资源诅咒的理论有直接和重大的影响。尽管租金指的是超额利润，但迄今为止的分析并未直接或间接地关注石油开采的利润率；相反，它们更多的是依靠对自然资源的总收入或出口的估计。尽管经验基础不足，但石油销售持续产生巨额利润这一基本未经检验的假设，却一直作为衡量租金的桥梁。相比之下，本文利用1980年至2012年间全球3800多个主要油田的数据来衡量石油生产的难度，以更准确地估计石油生产的收入，并利用其生产成本的重要相关因素来校准其创租潜力。结果显示，在石油生产成本低、利润率高的地方，会出现与资源诅咒说法一致的恶性制度结果。然而，随着生产转向更具挑战性的来源，石油生产失去了这种联系，在极端情况下，很可能与适度的民主结果有关。换言之，只有“易得的石油”才可能是民主发展的诅咒。
Research on the political implications of oil wealth is now over two decades old, and yet still unresolved. Despite many advances in this literature, a core concept—resource rents—remains under-theorized, and even less well measured. This mis-measurement, we contend, has direct and significant consequences for theoretical findings on the resource curse. Although rents refer to excessive profits, analyses to date have not directly or indirectly focused on the profitability of oil extraction; instead they rely more often on estimates of gross receipts or exports of natural resources. The largely untested assumption that oil sales consistently produce enormous profits has been the bridge used to treat these as measures of rents, even as the empirical foundations for this claim are shaky. In contrast, we measure the difficulty of oil production using data from over 3800 major oil fields around the globe between 1980 and 2012 to more accurately estimate the income generated by oil production and to calibrate its rent-generating potential using important correlates of its cost of production. The results show that where oil’s cost of production is low, and its profitability high, pernicious regime outcomes are observed in keeping with resource curse claims. However, as production shifts to more challenging sources, oil production loses this association and may well at the extremes be associated with modestly more democratic outcomes. In other words, it is only “easy oil” that may be a curse for democratic development.
04 外国反主流宣传与民主公众
【题目】
Foreign Anti-Mainstream Propaganda and Democratic Publics
【作者】
Matthias Mader, Nikolay Marinov, Harald Schoen
【摘要】
不自由主义政权利用公开和隐蔽的政治传播来影响民主国家的公众舆论。作者提出了一个关于这种宣传如何影响目标公众的论点。作者认为有效性取决于信息的来源是否被披露、问题的性质以及接收者的个人特征。在克里姆林宫信息传递的背景下，研究通过对大量德国选民（n=2303）进行的八项调查实验来检验这些命题。那些不信任政府、相信阴谋论或普遍与政治脱节的公民容易受到涉及反主流信息的宣传战的影响，而其他民众则不会。同时，提供亲西方的主流观点和揭露俄罗斯的消息源一般不是有效的反制措施。研究讨论了非自由政权的传播对国家间信息战和民主政治的内部运作的影响。
Illiberal regimes use overt and covert political communication to influence public opinion in democracies. We present an argument about how such propaganda impacts targeted publics. We posit that effectiveness depends on whether the source of the message is revealed, on the nature of the issue, and on individual characteristics of the recipients. We test these propositions in Germany, in the context of Kremlin messaging, using eight survey experiments administered to a large sample of German voters (n = 2, 303). Citizens who mistrust the government, believe in conspiracy theories, or are generally disconnected from politics are vulnerable to propaganda warfare that involves anti-mainstream messaging, while the rest of the populace is not. At the same time, providing a pro-Western, mainstream viewpoint and outing the Russian source are not generally effective countermeasures. We discuss the implications of illiberal regime communication for information wars between states and for the internal workings of democratic politics.
05 从毒枭领地到警察国家：秩序转型对地方经济的影响
【题目】
From Drug Lords to Police State: The Effects of Order Transition on Local Economies
【作者】
Leonardo Gentil-Fernandes, João V. Guedes-Neto, José Incio
【摘要】
当国家进行干预以从非国家行为者手中夺回领土时，对当地经济有什么影响？2008年，巴西里约热内卢政府实施了一项政策，以控制以前由有组织犯罪集团（OCG）主导的贫民区。作者使用白天和夜晚的光照度来评估该计划对经济增长的影响。双重差分（DID）设计显示，国家干预对接受干预的贫民区具有显著的、负面的平均处理效应。研究进一步测试了一个解释这种经济衰退的机制：制度替换。基于犯罪数据，作者证明这种效应是由于当地市场受到破坏而造成的，特别是非法活动。这些数据凸显了即便在国家行为者移除OCG的情况下，秩序转型仍然具有的危险性。此外，本文还强调了需要制定关注制度变迁外部性的政策。
What is the effect on local economies when the state intervenes to capture its own territories back from non-state actors? In 2008, the government of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, implemented a policy to take control of favelas that were previously dominated by organized crime groups (OCGs). We use day and night luminosity to assess the effects of this program on economic growth. The difference-in-differences design shows that state intervention has a significant and negative average treatment effect on the favelas that received the intervention. We further test a mechanism to explain this economic downturn: institutional replacement. Based on crime data, we demonstrate that this effect is caused by the destruction of local markets, especially illicit activities. The data highlight the perils of order transition, even when OCGs are removed by state actors. Furthermore, this paper reinforces the need for policies that are mindful of the externalities of institutional shifts.
Volume 55 - Issue 11 - September 2022
01 遗产风险：市场不确定性和右翼投票
【题目】
Patrimony at Risk: Market Uncertainty and Right-Wing Voting
【作者】
Anton Brännlund
【摘要】
目前的文献表明，鉴于右翼政策据说可以产生更高的回报，金融资产推动投资者投票给保守党。另一个流行的论点是，鉴于私人资产可以作为社会福利的替代品，财富减少了对福利支出的需求。我在这项研究中寻求的是，资产所有者是否总是支持右翼政党和削减的福利国家。我认为，当金融市场存在不确定性时，金融资产的所有者对自由市场政策的诱惑力就会降低。网络泡沫、金融危机以及最近的冠状病毒对金融市场的巨大影响表明，储蓄可以在几天内蒸发掉。研究表明，在这种情况下，在拥有大量金融资产的地区，对右翼政党的支持会减少。
The current literature suggests that financial assets push investors to vote for conservative parties given that right-wing policies are said to generate higher returns. Another popular argument is that wealth reduces demand for welfare spending given that private assets can be used as a substitute for social benefits. What I ask in this study is if asset owners always support right-wing parties and a trimmed welfare state. I argue that owners of financial assets become less tempted by free-market policy offerings when there is uncertainty in financial markets. The dot-com bubble, the financial crisis, and most recently the massive impact on financial markets of the coronavirus show that savings can evaporate in a matter of days. I show that the support for right-wing parties decreases in areas with much financial assets under such conditions.
02 惊慌失措的官僚：反腐败对地方政府的不利影响
【题目】
Frightened Mandarins: The Adverse Effects of Fighting Corruption on Local Bureaucracy
【作者】
Erik H. Wang
【摘要】
略，完整版见于《国际研究动态》
03 社会福利中的暴力与商业利益：来自墨西哥的证据
【题目】
Violence and Business Interest in Social Welfare: Evidence from Mexico
【作者】
Bradley E. Holland, Viridiana Rios
【摘要】
发展中国家（Countries in Global South）极易受到社会和政治暴力的影响。作者认为，这种暴力行为会使某些顽固的经济利益集团更加关注税收和社会福利支出。根据对墨西哥企业主和运营商的调查结果，作者认为，相较于更加无关痛痒的制度缺陷来说，对暴力行为的担忧会提高对增加扶贫支出的支持度、降低对减税政策的支持度。为构建新理论，作者对异质效应和相关文本数据展开探讨。研究结果表明，商业利益将扶贫支出视为支持消费市场暴力成本的工具，部分领导阶层甚至提高了对增进福利的税务支持。然而，暴力会给劳动力市场带来挑战，这将提高运营成本，导致部分商业利益集团抵制那些要求他们资助社会项目的税收政策。
Countries in the Global South are particularly vulnerable to social and political violence. This paper suggests that such violence makes certain recalcitrant economic interests more open to taxes and spending on social welfare. Using results from a survey experiment of business owners and operators in Mexico, we show that relative to more innocuous institutional weaknesses, concerns over violence generally increase support for anti-poverty spending and decrease support for tax cuts. To build a theory, we explore heterogeneous effects and textual data. The findings suggest that business interests see anti-poverty spending as a tool for shoring up costs of violence in consumer markets, with some leaders even extending support to welfare-enhancing taxes. However, violence can create challenges in labor markets that increase operational costs, leading some business interests to resist tax policies that ask them to help fund social programs.
04 帝国统治与长期发展：来自奥斯曼欧洲地区人力资本作用的证据
【题目】
Imperial Rule and Long-Run Development: Evidence on the Role of Human Capital in Ottoman Europe
【作者】
Bogdan G. Popescu, Mircea Popa
【摘要】
本文研究了奥斯曼帝国的统治对欧洲长期发展的影响。通过运用新的地理数据集来追踪600年间地区层面的领土变化，作者确定了奥斯曼帝国统治对现代经济的负面影响。现代调查数据为人力资本积累减少的因果机制提供了强有力的支持，而使用来自罗马尼亚历史数据进行的不连续性回归分析证实了这一点。作者揭示了奥斯曼帝国的统治对19世纪识字率的重大因果影响，而这种影响一直持续到20世纪。作者认为，帝国统治时期印刷机的低普及率是人力资本积累较少的重要决定因素，并运用印刷机普及的数据对其加以说明。
This study examines the effects of Ottoman imperial rule on long-run development in Europe. Using a novel geographical dataset that tracks territorial changes at the sub-national level over 600 years, we identify a negative effect of Ottoman rule on modern economic performance. Contemporary survey data provides strong support for a causal mechanism involving reduced human capital accumulation. This insight is confirmed by a regression discontinuity analysis using historical data from Romania. We uncover large causal effects of Ottoman rule on literacy rates from the 19th century, which persisted throughout the 20th century. We argue that the late adoption of the printing press in the empire was an important determinant of low human capital accumulation and illustrate this using data on the spread of the printing press.
05 选民如何应对总统对制衡的破坏：来自土耳其调查实验的证据
【题目】
How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on Checks and Balances: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey
【作者】
Aytuğ Şaşmaz, Alper H. Yagci, Daniel Ziblat
【摘要】
为何选民支持行政扩张？一个可能的解释是选民认为这样会减轻他们所支持的领导者候选人将党派愿景付诸实践的压力，前提是这位候选人将赢得选举。作者通过在土耳其进行的一项调查实验来研究这一现象，实验的主要内容是观察记录有关强化行政的宪法公投后选民对第一次总统选举可能产生的结果的看法。作者发现对立的选民群体都对行政强化表现出所谓“弹性支持”的态度；也就是说，选民改变了先前对待不同获胜结果时呈现出的差异化宪法偏好。这种弹性不仅会在公民感知到与政治“他者”拉大社会距离时（如情感极化）变得显著，而且也会在选民关注领导者在任后期的经济治理状况时有所增加。作者的发现助推了极化和经济焦虑如何导致行政强化和民主倒退的研究。
Why do voters support executive aggrandizement? One possible answer is that they do so because they think this will ease their preferred leader’s hand in putting their partisan vision into action, provided that the leader will continue winning elections. We study this phenomenon through a survey experiment in Turkey, by manipulating voters’ perceptions about the potential results of the first presidential election after a constitutional referendum of executive aggrandizement. We find that voters from both sides display what we call “elastic support” for executive aggrandizement; that is, they change previously revealed constitutional preferences in response to varying winning chances. This elasticity increases not only when citizens feel greater social distance to perceived political “others” (i.e., affective polarization) but also when voters are concerned about economic management in a potential post-incumbent era. Our findings contribute to the literature on how polarization and economic anxiety contribute to executive aggrandizement and democratic backsliding.
翻 译：杨轩、丁岩森、陈宇洋、任好为
校 对：欧阳博雅、马丝妮、石寒冰、陈宇洋
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：李璐雅
二审：郭见田