双语阅读｜英脱欧后，欧洲金融中心在哪？
“英国脱欧公投结果出来的那一刻，”法国大巴黎地区的新任主席瓦莱丽•贝克莱斯说道，“宣传法国的机会就来了。”2016年六月，巴黎政府准备了两种版本的广告宣传，用以不同的英国脱欧公投结果。没有用到的那版是这样说的：“你的选择是对的。那就另做一个选择吧。来大巴黎发展吧。”
Brexit has made Paris bolder. Once Britain leaves Europe’s single market, the many international banks and other firms that have made London their EU home will lose the “passports” that allow them to serve clients in the other 27 states. Possibly, mutual recognition by Britain and the EU of each other’s regulatory regimes will persist. But no one can rely on the transition to Brexit being smooth, rather than a feared “cliff edge”. Best to assume the worst.
英国脱欧反倒给了巴黎更多勇气。一旦英国与欧洲不再同属一市场，那么许多将总部设立在英国的国际银行及其它大公司将无法继续服务其他27个国家的客户。当然英国与欧盟可能会继续保持监管体系互认，但没人能保证英脱欧的过渡阶段会平稳进行，不如设想一下会陷入怎样的危险境地。毕竟最安全的办法是永远做好最坏的打算。
Britain is expected to start the two-year process of withdrawal next month. Given the time needed to get approval from regulators, find offices and move (or hire) staff, financial firms have long been weighing their options. London will remain Europe’s leading centre, but other cities are keen to take what they can.
英国预计会从下月开始为期两年的脱欧进程。考虑到取得监管部门的许可、分公司选址以及人员调动（或招聘）都要花费大量时间，金融企业早早就开始筹划下一步了。伦敦依旧会是欧洲的金融中心，但是其它城市正跃跃欲试，准备分享英国脱欧的蛋糕。
The Parisians are pushing hardest, pitching their city as London’s partner and peer. “I don’t see the relationship with London as a rivalry,” says Ms Pécresse. “The rivalry is not with London but with Dublin, Amsterdam, Luxembourg and Frankfurt.” Especially, it seems, Frankfurt. Paris has more big local banks, more big companies and more international schools than its German rival. London apart, say the French team, it is Europe’s only “global city”. When, they smirk, did you last take your partner to Frankfurt for the weekend?
其中巴黎人最为积极，声称巴黎是与伦敦并肩的伙伴。“我不认为巴黎和伦敦是对立的关系，”贝克莱斯说。“我们的对手不是伦敦，而是都柏林、阿姆斯特丹、卢森堡和法兰克福。目前来看，尤其是法兰克福。”相比于这个德国劲敌，巴黎的优势在于数量更多的大型本土银行、大企业以及国际学校。法国人还表示“除了伦敦，巴黎是欧洲唯一具有全球影响力的大都市”，他们还开玩笑说：“你还记得上一次和伴侣去法兰克福过周末是什么时候的事吗？”
This month the Parisians were in London, briefing 80 executives from banks, asset managers, private-equity firms and fintech companies. They are keen to dispel France’s image as an interventionist, high-tax, work-shy place. The headline corporate-tax rate is 33.3% but due to fall to 28% by 2020. A scheme giving income-tax breaks to high earners who have lived outside France for at least five years will now apply for eight years after arrival or return, not five. The Socialists, who run the city itself, and Ms Pécresse’s Republicans are joined in a business-friendly “sacred union”, says Gérard Mestrallet, president of Paris Europlace, which promotes the financial centre. Ms Pécresse and others play down the risk that Marine Le Pen, of the far-right, Eurosceptic National Front will win the presidential election this spring.
本月，这些巴黎人还跑到伦敦去，给80位就职于银行、资产管理公司、私募股权投资公司及金融科技公司的高管们宣传巴黎。他们试图改变以往巴黎爱干涉、税收高、不爱工作的形象。“新闻上说的33.3%的企业所得税到了2020年前会降低到28%，而且一项给非法国籍高收入者的税收减免计划将由原来的五年增加到八年，也就是说你来或者回法国工作后的前八年都可以减免个人所得税。”推广巴黎国际金融中心地位的组织巴黎欧洲金融市场协会的主席赫拉德·麦斯特雷说：“现在领导巴黎的社会党人和贝克莱斯背后的共和党开始联手对商友好。”贝克莱斯和其他人此举降低了法国极右翼政党“国民前线”候选人玛丽娜·勒庞今春当选的危险性。
More quietly, Hubertus Väth of Frankfurt Main Finance (the counterpart of Paris Europlace) is “pretty confident” about his city’s ability to attract more bankers. To Mr Väth, the big prize is the clearing of trades in euros, which London dominates but which both Frankfurt and Paris hope to snaffle. The European Central Bank once tried to force clearing to move from London to inside the euro zone, but was thwarted in 2015 when EU judges ruled it lacked the necessary authority. After Brexit, it may try again.
法兰克福金融协会（相当于德国的巴黎欧洲金融市场协会）主席Hubertus Vth虽然没那么高调，但他对于法兰克福能否吸引更多银行业者也很有信心。对他而言，英脱欧最大的蛋糕在于欧元区的贸易清算问题，此前伦敦一直是清算中心，不过，现在法兰克福和巴黎都希望能取而代之。欧洲央行曾经试图将清算中心从伦敦转移到欧元区内部，不过，在2015年遭欧盟驳回，理由是缺乏权威性。而在英国脱欧之后，央行也许会再试一次。
Nicolas Mackel of Luxembourg for Finance, the grand duchy’s development agency, is relatively “laid back”. All are welcome, Mr Mackel says, but no taxes or regulations have been changed, nor applications fast-tracked. Business has been brisk anyway, because of the duchy’s expertise with fund managers. China’s big banks use Luxembourg as a continental hub.
卢森堡大公国的开发机构卢森堡金融的尼古拉斯·麦克尔则相对轻松得多。他说：“我们对一切都表示欢迎，但是不会有税收或相关法规的优惠，也没有什么快车道可言。现在卢森堡的商业一派繁荣，这得益于我们有专业的基金管理人。”中国的大型银行也将卢森堡当作他们在欧洲的中心。
After a slow start, the Dutch too are trying to gain from any “Brexodus”. The foreign-investment agency has expanded its (small) office in London. The Netherlands offers a high quality of life and almost everyone speaks English. But Amsterdam’s financial centre lacks the scale of Frankfurt or Paris, and is short of housing and schools. A cap of 20% of salaries on bankers’ bonuses is also off-putting, although the finance ministry says global banks may be exempt under certain conditions.
虽然起步晚，但荷兰也试图从英脱欧中获取点甜头，扩大了其对外投资机构在伦敦的（小型）分支机构规模。荷兰的企业还为人才提供高薪待遇，而且说英语，没有语言障碍。不过，阿姆斯特丹的金融中心规模比不上法兰克福或巴黎，房地产和教育资源也不足。其银行业者拿到的的红利不得超过薪资的20%的规定也很让人望而却步，尽管其财政部长表示一定条件下国际大银行可以例外。
Dublin is keen to attract more asset managers. Irish central bankers are worried about whether they have the right expertise to regulate, say, complex trading. Some would be relieved if the hordes do not materialise. The city is already short of office space, housing, roads and international-school places.
爱尔兰的都柏林力图吸引更多的资产管理公司。爱尔兰央行人士很担心他们是否有能力对更庞大的体系进行监管，比如综合性的交易。如果这些复杂的业务不需要占用实际的资源就好了。都柏林的办公场所不足，住房、道路以及国际学校也同样缺乏。
The size of the prize is hard to gauge. Much depends on the post-Brexit agreement between Britain and the EU, and what regulators demand in capital and personnel. Banks may also shift some work out of Europe, to New York, or even Hong Kong or Singapore. Some services, warns a banker, may not be provided at all. Mr Väth thinks that, with euro clearing, Frankfurt could see an extra 10,000 jobs or more. Arnaud de Bresson of Europlace estimates that Paris stands to gain 10,000 “direct” posts in finance and fintech, plus 10,000-20,000 in law, accountancy and so on. Europlace hasn’t tried to quantify the number tied to clearing.
蛋糕太大，就吞不下了。两方面至关重要，决定了大多数的问题：英国在脱欧后与欧盟达成的协定，以及监管者在资本和人员方面的需求。一些银行可能会将部分业务搬离欧洲移至纽约，甚至是香港或新加坡。一位银行业者甚至预测一些业务可能将不会在欧洲展开了。Vath认为，如果欧元清算移到德国，那么法兰克福预计会增加至少1万个工作岗位。法国欧洲金融市场协会的布瑞松（Arnaud de Bresson）表示，巴黎肯定能在金融和金融科技行业增加1万岗位，在法律、会计等行业增加1-2万个岗位。欧洲金融市场协会并没有具体计算清算会带来多少就业。
Different institutions have their own priorities. HSBC, a big British bank, has already said that it expects to move around 1,000 jobs to Paris, where it already has a subsidiary; some other banks still sound wary of the place, despite the best efforts of the French. Switzerland’s UBS, which also says around 1,000 London jobs are at risk, set up shop in Frankfurt last year: that seems a natural base, although its bosses have also mentioned Madrid. Fund managers not already in Dublin or Luxembourg are likely to head there. Lloyd’s of London, an insurance market, and Blackstone and Carlyle, two American private-equity giants, reportedly favour Luxembourg for their EU home.
不同的机构有不同的倾向。英国大型金融机构汇丰银行表示将转移约1000个岗位到巴黎分公司；尽管巴黎人努力得改变形象，其他的一些银行仍然有些闻巴黎色变。瑞士的瑞银集团同样表示其在伦敦的1000全岗位可能会发生变动，并于去年在法兰克福设立了分行：看上去是个很自然的选择，不过，瑞银的高层们也曾考虑过马德里。一些基金管理公司准备去都柏林或卢森堡拓展新版图。据报道，伦敦的保险社团劳合社与两家美国的私募股权巨头黑石集团和凯雷集团均有意将其欧盟总部设在卢森堡。
The continental European financial centres all say they have acres of space for new arrivals. There should be more than enough, at least for now. “We’re not talking about banks moving lock, stock and barrel,” says Lee Elliott, head of commercial research at Knight Frank, a property consultancy. All banks have bases in all the main centres and after the downsizing of recent years, they still have vacant space. James Maddock of Cushman & Wakefield, another property-services firm, says that since 2008, banks in Europe have shifted 34,000 back- and mid-office jobs to eastern Europe, a further 5,050 to Ireland and 14,200 to British cities outside London. Brexit will involve fewer (if better-paid) people.
以上这些金融中心纷纷表示自己有足够的空间欢迎新公司的到来，仅仅是足够还不够，至少现在是这样。资产咨询公司莱坊集团的商业研究部负责人埃利奥特·李说道：“现在还不是银行们一股脑儿的全搬呢。”所有的银行都在主要的中心城市设立了分行，尽管近几年精简了规模，但仍然有空缺。资产服务公司高纬环球的詹姆斯·马多克表示，自2008年金融危机以来，欧洲的各大银行转移了约34,000个交易后台和中台岗位到东欧国家，预计还将转移5,050个到爱尔兰、14,200个到英国的其他城市。英国脱欧将不会对太多人产生影响（就富人而言）。
But in all the cities vying for post-Brexit trade, a common refrain is heard: we wish it wasn’t happening. In Luxembourg too, Mr Mackel says, an ad was planned for the day after the referendum: “We would have missed you.” It didn’t appear.
不过，在所有争抢伦敦脱欧后贸易资源的城市，常常能听到人们说：“要是英国没有脱欧就好了”麦克尔也说道：“卢森堡也是如此，当时为英国公投结果准备的广告语原本是：差一点就要分开了。但却没有用上”。
编译：王朦晰
审校：Monkeyblue
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人