双语阅读｜千禧一代迁移次数减少 或因无房
MILLENNIALS—the generation which roughly includes those born between 1980 and 1996—have a reputation for being footloose. But analysis by the Pew Research Centre released in February suggests American millennials are moving less than previous generations did when they were younger. In 2016 20% of those aged 25-35 changed addresses, compared with 26% of the generation above in 2000 and 27% of late baby-boomers in 1990. Frequent moving in search of opportunity has long been an ingredient in American exceptionalism. Economists such as Tyler Cowen, author of “The Complacent Class”, worry that its decline will dampen the nation’s dynamism.
千禧一代通常指的是出生于1980至1996年的人群（目前大约21岁至37岁），他们一直享有“无拘无束、四海为家”的盛名。不过，根据皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Centre）今年2月份发布的数据分析显示，美国千禧一代与上一代人年轻时相比移居情况减少。2016年时，25至35岁的人中有20%曾搬过家，2000年时这一比例是26%，而上一代“婴儿潮”出生的人在1990年（即他们年轻时）搬家比例为27%。通过不断迁移来寻求更好的机遇一直是美国例外主义的一个重要表现。经济学家泰勒·科文（Tyler Cowen）在新书《自满阶级》中（The Complacent Class）表达了这样的忧虑：美国人搬迁比例的下降将会抑制国家发展活力。
Since the 1980s, Americans of all ages have become more rooted. Between 1980 and 1981, 17% of Americans moved house, according to William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a think-tank. Between 2015 and 2016 only 11% did. Migration between states, which is often driven by professional choices, has fallen by half since 1990. Young people, who normally move around most, seem especially stuck.
自从上世纪80年代开始，各个年龄层的美国人变得更加恋家，不愿搬迁。根据美国著名智库布鲁金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）人口统计学家威廉·弗雷（William Frey）研究表明，1980至1981年间，有17%的人搬迁；而在2015至2016年间，这一比例骤降至11%。自1990年以来，通常因职业选择需要而跨州迁移的比例也下降了一半。平常最爱四处迁移的年轻人们似乎停滞不前了。
This is strange. More millennials lack the anchors that have previously rooted people in place: they are marrying later, having children later and buying homes at lower rates than previous generations did. In 1990 just under half of 18-to-34-year-olds had never married; that share increased to two-thirds in the period between 2009 and 2013. Less than half of 25-to-35-year-olds had children in 2016, compared with more than half for the previous generation and baby-boomers at a similar age. In 1982 41% of those under 35 owned homes. Today that share has fallen to 35%.
这的确很奇怪。大多数千禧一代缺少以前那些能让人们安定的依靠或支持：所以他们结婚晚，生孩子晚，与前几代人相比，买房的首付少。1990年的调查显示，18至34岁的年轻人中，只有不到一半人未婚；而这一比例在2009至2013年间达到三分之二。2016年，25至35岁的千禧一代人中，不到一半的人有孩子，而他们的上一代人和“婴儿潮”一代的人在他们这个年龄段时有超过半数的人育有孩子。1982年 ，低于35岁的人中有41%拥有自己的房子。现今这一比例降至35%。
Yet despite the loosening of such ties, both short- and long-distance migration have decreased among 25-to-34-year olds since 1995. Short-distance moves within counties often happen when people simply move house—for example, to accommodate an increasing number of children. The fact that American youngsters are waiting longer before they start families may partly explain the drop in short-distance moves.
尽管千禧一代和外界的关系可能没有之前那么亲密了，但是，自1995年以来，25至34岁的年轻人的长短迁移都在减少。短距离城镇间的迁移通常只是搬家，比如因为家里多了孩子，需要容纳新成员。美国年轻人成家年龄变晚可能在一定程度上解释了短距离迁移减少的原因。
People tend to move longer distances, across counties and states, in search of better jobs. The recent recession saw longer-distance migration among young people fall. It has since recovered a bit. One factor that might explain what is going on is the relationship millennials have to home ownership. Aspirations to buy, rather than rent have traditionally pushed a significant share of young Americans to move. According to analysis by the Pew Research Centre, in 2000 14% of Generation Xers (born roughly between 1965 and 1980) surveyed by the Census Bureau said their primary motive for moving was to buy a house. In 2016 only 6% of millennials said the same. That might be partly because childless bachelors and bachelorettes are decreasingly likely to covet grassy yards and white picket fences.
人们为了寻求更好的工作机遇而跨县和跨州长距离搬家。近年来的经济衰退也使年轻人长途迁移比例下降，不过，最近这个比例有所回升。导致这种现象的其中一个因素可能是千禧一代对拥有房屋的观念有所变化。人们总是渴望买房而不是租房这一传统观念驱使先前相当比例的年轻人不断搬家。根据皮尤研究中心分析，人口普查局（the Census Bureau ）2000年对X一代（大约出生于1965至1980年的人）的调查显示，14%的人说他们搬家的主要动机是买房。2016年，千禧一代的人中只有6%有相同看法。一部分原因可能是单身男女们并不是那么渴望拥有一座带有长满青草的小院和白色栅栏的房子。
Or perhaps such things are simply out of reach. Median earnings for full-time workers aged 18-34 fell by 9% between 2000 and 2013. In 2014, for the first time, more 18-to-34-year-olds lived with their parents than in any other arrangement, maybe because they could not afford to do otherwise. Conversely, it may be the case that people who already own houses—or equity in a house—are more inclined to move than those who do not.
也有可能只是他们可望而不可即。2000至2013年间，18至34岁的全职职员中达到中等收入的人群比例下降了9%，2014年，千禧一代与父母同住的比例首次超过其他年代人群，这可能是因为不和父母住的话，他们真的没钱买得起房子啊。相反地，那些已有房子或者拥有房屋资产的人更倾向于搬家。
Mr Frey wonders “whether [millennials] are ushering new young adult tastes and lifestyles that may be mimicked by generations that follow them; or is this a one-time downturn because of their difficult generation-specific economic circumstances?” If it continues, the decline in migration among millennials could spell trouble. Americans become less likely to move as they get older. If they’re staying put now, millennials probably won’t shift for better opportunities later on either.
弗雷比较好奇的是：“这到底是千禧一代在引领未来年轻人为之效仿的新品味、新生活方式还是只是他们这一代遭遇的经济衰退带来的一时现象？”如果这一现象不断持续的话，很有可能产生社会问题。美国人随着年龄增加变得越来越不愿意迁移。如果现在待在原地不动，那么以后千禧一代也不可能找到更好的机遇了。
编译：贾邵然
审校：曹铭津
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人
翻吧·与你一起学翻译
微信号：translationtips