双语阅读｜英国脱欧理由中的移民悖论
“THE Golden Cross Welcomes you to Redditch!” The greeting, on the wall of a pub outside the town’s railway station, is valiant. But the dingy wire fence and mossy concrete beneath it let down the enthusiasm of the sign’s welcome. Redditch is struggling. In recent years, wages have fallen. It has also seen a rapid rise in the number of migrants, in particular those from eastern Europe. Perhaps linking these two phenomena, the people of Redditch voted 62:38 to leave the European Union in the referendum last June.
“金十字酒吧欢迎您来到雷迪奇！”这个欢迎标语印在这个小镇火车站附近一家酒吧的外墙上，显得很无畏。但是，在欢迎语的下面，阴暗肮脏的钢丝栅栏和长满青苔的混凝土浇灭了这满腔热情。雷迪奇的经济正陷入困境。近些年来，当地的工资水平一直下降，而以东欧人为主的移民人数快速上涨。或许雷迪奇人认为这两种现象有内在联系，在去年六月的脱欧公投中，以62比38选择退出欧盟。
Immigration is a boon for Britain. The 9m-odd foreign-born people living there bring with them skills and attitudes that make the country more productive. Younger and better educated than natives, immigrants pay more in tax than they use in the way of public services. For some institutions they are indispensable: perhaps 30% of doctors in Britain are non-British.
移民对英国有利。目前，有九百多万外国人居住在英国，他们拥有的精湛技能和积极态度，让英国更富竞争力。与土生土长的英国人相比，移民更加年轻，受教育程度更高。他们缴纳的税款超过所享受到与相应的公共服务。对许多机构而言，他们是不可或缺的人才：英国有大约30%的医生不是英国人。
Even so, Britain is unenthusiastic about immigration. Surveys find that roughly half of people would like it reduced “a lot” and fewer than 5% want it to go up. Many politicians interpret the vote for Brexit as a plea to reduce the number of new arrivals. Although the government has recently hinted that net migration may not fall by much after Britain leaves the EU, a group called Leave Means Leave, backed by two-dozen MPs, is calling for it to be slashed to a sixth of its current level.
即便如此，英国对移民并不满怀热情。有调查显示，几乎一半的人希望移民人数“大幅”下降，只有不到5%的人希望移民人数增多。许多政客将支持脱欧看作是人们希望以此请求政府减少移民人数。尽管英国政府近期暗示，在英国脱欧后，净移民数量可能不会大幅度下降，不过，得到20多名英国议员支持的Leave Means Leave组织正呼吁政府将移民数量削减至目前的六分之一。
To understand this antipathy to immigration, we examined the ten local authorities that saw the largest proportional increase in foreign-born folk in the ten years from 2005 to 2015 (we excluded Northern Ireland, because of differences in its data). Whereas big cities such as London have the greatest share of immigrants among their populations, the places that have experienced the sharpest rises are mostly smaller towns, which until recently had seen little immigration (see map).
为理解英国人对移民的反感，我们调查了10个地方政府。2005年至2015年这十年间，这10个地方外国移民人口增长比例最大（因为数据的差异，我们排除了北爱尔兰。）尽管伦敦等大城市中移民人口占全部人口的比例最大，不过，移民人数增长最快的大多是小城镇，而这些小城镇之前几乎没有移民（见地图）。
Top of the list is Boston, in Lincolnshire, where in 2005-15 the number of foreign-born residents rose from about 1,000 to 16,000. In 2005 immigrants were about one in 50 of the local population. They are now one in four. All ten areas we looked at saw at least a doubling in the share of the population that was born outside Britain.
排名第一就是林肯郡的波士顿。在2005年至2015年间，当地外国移民人数从1000人增加到1.6万。2005年，移民只占当地人口的1/50，如今这一比例上升到1/4。在我们调查的10个地区中，外国移民人数占全部人口的比例至少都翻了一番。
These ten areas—call them Migrantland—voted about 60:40 in favour of leaving the EU, compared with 52:48 across Britain. Boston went for Brexit by 76:24, the highest margin of any local authority. And whereas it has often been noted that there was no link between the size of a place’s migrant population and local enthusiasm for Brexit (consider London, both cosmopolitan and heavily for Remain), we found some link between the increase in the number of migrants and the likelihood to vote Leave (see chart). London boroughs such as Hackney and Newham have welcomed large numbers of foreigners for centuries. People in those places have got used to newcomers, suggests Tony Travers of the London School of Economics. “But when your local population of migrants goes from 10% to 15% in a decade, that’s where you get the bite.”
在这10个地区——可以称之为“移民聚集地”，当地居民脱欧投票结果是60：40，而英国平均投票结果是52：48。在波士顿，支持脱欧投票结果为76：24，是全英投票结果差额最大的地区。但是，尽管有人一再强调某地的移民人数和当地对脱欧的支持没有关联（比如伦敦，来自世界各地的移民非常多，却非常支持留欧），不过，我们发现，移民人数的增长与投票支持脱欧是有一些关联的（见图表）。数世纪以来，伦敦下辖的自治市如哈克尼（Hackney）和纽汉（Newham）欣然接纳了大批外国移民。伦敦政治经济学院教授托尼•特拉弗斯（Tony Travers）认为，这些地区的居民对此习以为常。“但是，一旦在十年内当地移民人口从10%上升到15%，那么问题就来了。”
Jacqui Smith, a former MP for Redditch and Labour home secretary in 2007-09, sees his point. “I know there’s racism in London, but people have largely become used to diverse communities...The transitional impact in Redditch is much greater,” she says. Redditch has in recent years acquired a couple of Polish supermarkets. Those who are well-off, mobile and confident find those sorts of developments interesting—“You think, ‘I’ll be able to get some Polish sausage’,” says Ms Smith. But those who lack housing or work worry about what such changes represent. The staff at an employment agency in Redditch attest to such fears. Most of the workers they place in jobs are from eastern Europe. “They’re brilliant, we love them,” smiles one member of staff. But when locals come looking for work and see how many foreign names are on the agency’s register, there is some resentment, she says.
前雷迪奇地区的议员，曾在2007年至2009年担任工党政府内政大臣的雅基·史密斯（Jacqui Smith）对特拉弗斯教授的观点表示理解。“我知道伦敦也存在种族歧视，但是，人们多半对形形色色的种族群体习以为常……但是，移民人数比例变化的对雷迪奇的影响则要严重得多。“史密斯说道。近年来，雷迪奇开了几家波兰超市。富裕、开放、自信的当地人认为这种发展十分有趣——“想一想，我将买到波兰的香肠” 。但是，居无定所、工作没有着落的人对这种变化将给他们带来的影响表示担忧。雷迪奇一家职业介绍所的工作人员证实这种担忧不无道理。大多数抢走他们工作的人来自东欧。一名员工微笑着说道：“他们很有才干，我们喜欢他们。”她表示，不过，如果当地人来这里寻找工作，然后看到在介绍所登记的大量外国人名，自然会感到气愤。
The wrong place at the wrong time
在错误的时机选择了错误的地方
It is tempting to conclude that such attitudes are motivated by prejudice. Yet a closer look at the economy and public services in Migrantland makes clear that its residents have plenty to be angry about—even if the migrants are not the culprits.
我们不禁得出结论，认为这种态度是偏见造成的。然而，仔细分析移民聚集地的经济和公共服务就会发现，很多事情让当地居民感到愤愤不平——即使移民并不是罪魁祸首。
Places where living is cheap and jobs plentiful are attractive to newcomers. In 2005 the average house in Migrantland cost around £140,000 (then $255,000), compared with more than £150,000 across Britain. Unemployment was lower than average. Low-skill jobs blossomed. Migrantland seems to be more dependent on agriculture than the rest of the country. The big change in Boston, says Paul Gleeson, a local Labour councillor, is that previously-seasonal work, such as fruit- and veg-picking, has become permanent as technology and new crop varieties have lengthened the agricultural season. This means the people doing that work now live there permanently, too. Manufacturing centres are nearby: food processing, for instance, is a big employer in Boston and Mansfield.
生活成本低，有大量工作机会的地区会吸引大量移民。2005年，移民聚集地的平均房价约为14万英镑（当时约合25.5万美元），而当时英国的平均房价超过15万英镑。当地失业率低于全英平均水平，技能要求低的工作需求量大。移民聚集地似乎比英国其他地区更加依赖农业。波士顿工党市议员保罗·格利森（Paul Gleeson）表示，波士顿最大的改变是由于科技以及新的作物品种延长了农耕季节，水果蔬菜采摘等之前季节性的工作逐渐转变为长期工作。这意味着从事这些工作的工人如今也长期居住在当地。附近就是制造业中心：例如食品加工行业就是波士顿和曼斯费尔德最大的雇主。
Given the nature of the jobs on offer, it is unsurprising that the new arrivals are often young and not particularly well educated or Anglophone. We estimate that whereas over 40% of the Poles living in London have a higher-education qualification, only about a quarter do in the East Midlands, where three of our ten areas are. One in 20 people in Boston cannot speak English well or at all, according to the 2011 census. Small wonder that integration is hard. Many landlords do not allow tenants to drink or smoke inside, so people sit out on benches, having a drink and a cigarette. “Because they’re young, not because they’re foreign, they might not put their tins in the bin,” says Mr Gleeson.
考虑到这些工作的性质，移居此地的外国移民通常是没有受过太多教育也不会讲英语的年轻人。我们估计尽管40%以上居住在伦敦的波兰人有着更高的教育水平，但是，在东米德兰兹，这一人群所占比例仅为四分之一。在我们所调查的十个地区中，其中三个在东米德兰兹。根据2011年的人口普查，波士顿二十分之一的人英语说得不好、甚至完全不会说。少数人怀疑移民难以融入当地社会。许多房东不允许租客在屋子里喝酒或者抽烟，因此，人们坐在室外的长凳上喝酒抽烟。格利森说道：“他们乱扔垃圾不是因为他们是外国人，只是因为他们还年轻。”
What’s more, the places that have seen the greatest surges in migration have become poorer. In 2005-15 real wages in Migrantland fell by a tenth, much faster than the decline in the rest of Britain. On an “index of multiple deprivation”, a government measure that takes into account factors such as income, health and education, the area appears to have become relatively poorer over the past decade.
此外，移民人数激增的地区逐渐陷入贫困。在2005至2015年间，移民聚集地的实际工资下降了十分之一，跌幅高于英国其他地区。根据一项囊括收入、健康和教育等因素的政府衡量标准“多重贫困指数”，过去十年里，这一地区似乎相对愈发贫困。
Are the newcomers to blame? Immigration may have heightened competition for some jobs, pushing pay down. But the effect is small. A House of Lords report in 2008 suggested that every 1% increase in the ratio of immigrants to natives in the working-age population leads to a 0.5% fall in wages for the lowest 10% of earners (and a similar rise for the top 10%). Since Migrantland relies on low-paid work, it probably suffered more than most.
移民该为此负责吗？移民可能加剧了一些职位的竞争，导致工资下降。但是，这种影响微乎其微。2008年，英国上议院的一项报告显示，在劳动年龄人口中，移民与当地人的比率每上升1%就会导致10%收入最低的人群工资下降0.5%（同时10%收入最高的人群工资上升0.5%）。由于移民聚集地大多提供的是低收入的工作，可能受到的影响是最大的。
But more powerful factors are at play. Because the area is disproportionately dependent on manufacturing, it has suffered from the industry’s decline. And since 2010 Conservative-led governments have slashed the number of civil servants, in a bid to right the public finances. The axe has fallen hard on the administrative jobs that are prevalent in unglamorous parts of the country. Migrantland’s public-sector jobs have disappeared 50% faster than those in Britain as a whole. In the Forest of Dean they have dropped by over a third. Meanwhile, cuts to working-age benefits have sucked away spending power.
不过，还有更大的因素在作怪。这一地区过度依赖制造业，因此还蒙受制造业衰退的影响。自从2010年，保守党政府大幅削减公务员人数以使公共财政恢复正常。这次裁员主要针对行政工作，而这种工作主要集中在毫无吸引力的地区。移民聚集地的公共部门的职位削减速度比英国平均水平快50%。在迪恩森林区，公务员职位减少了三分之一。同时，对劳动年龄人口福利的削减也削弱了他们的购买力。
Even before austerity, it had long been the case that poor places had the most threadbare public services. Medical staff, for instance, prefer to live in prosperous areas. Our analysis suggests that Migrantland is relatively deprived of general practitioners. Doctors for the East Midlands are trained in Nottingham and Leicester, but fewer people want to study there than in London, for instance. After training there, half go elsewhere. In 2014 there were 12 places for trainee doctors in Boston; only four were filled.
甚至在经济紧缩政策之前，贫困地区的公共服务最为陈旧。例如，医务人员更青睐在繁华地区定居。我们的分析显示，移民聚集地相对缺乏普通医师。例如，东米德兰兹的医生在诺丁汉和莱斯特接受培训，很少有人不愿去伦敦学习而愿意待在这里。在这些地区受过培训之后，一半的医生选择去其他地方工作。在2014年，波士顿有12个地方招聘实习医生，却只有4个地方能招满人。
Follow the money
追着金钱跑
What can be done? In places where public spending has not yet caught up with a rapidly enlarged population, the government could target extra funding in the short term. The previous Labour government ran a “migration impacts fund”, introduced by Ms Smith. She acknowledges that the amounts involved were small (the budget was just £35m per year) but argues that the point was to reassure people that the government understood fears that immigration can make things tough for a time. The current government has launched a similar initiative, though it is no better funded.
如何应对？在公共开支无法满足快速增长的人口的地区，政府可以实施额外的短期资助。前一届工党政府实施的“移民影响资助”由史密斯提出。她承认，这一资助只是杯水车薪（预算每年只有3500万英镑）。不过，她强调，这一举措的关键是安抚民心，表明政府理解人们担忧移民会加剧严峻形势。目前政府推行了类似的倡议，尽管资助并未上涨。
And although Britons dislike immigration, they do not feel the same resentment towards immigrants themselves. Once they have been placed in jobs alongside each other, locals and migrants tend to rub along, says the Redditch recruitment agency. A music festival was recently held in the town to raise money for children’s hospital wards in Poland. Local Poles took part in the Holocaust commemoration this year, says Bill Hartnett, leader of the council.
尽管英国人讨厌移民一事，但是，他们面对海外的移民并不会产生厌恶情绪。雷迪奇的招聘机构表示，如果英国人和移民一起工作，那么他们往往相处得很融洽。近期，这个小镇举办了一场音乐节为波兰儿童医院的病房筹款。当地市政委员会负责人比尔.哈特内特（Bill Hartnett）表示，今年当地的波兰人也参加了大屠杀纪念活动。
All that may be encouraging, but it does not provide a way to improve conditions in the left-behind places to which migrants have rushed. To many people, Brexit may appear to be just such a policy. They have been told a story that leaving the EU will make things better in their area, says Mr Gleeson. “It won’t.”
这些举措可能会带给人希望，不过并不提供切实方法来改善移民涌入的落后地区的现状。对很多人而言，脱欧似乎就是这样一项政策。格利森表示，人们可能被告知脱离欧盟会改善这一地区的现状。“实际并不会。”
编译：王雅文
审校：杜甜甜
编辑：翻吧君
英文来源：经济学人