双语阅读｜拿什么拯救你，中东四大航？
WHEN a video of a passenger being dragged off a United Airlines flight went viral last month, the American carrier’s Middle Eastern rivals were quick to mock its customer service. Qatar Airways updated its smartphone app to say it “doesn’t support drag and drop”. The ribbing was justified. Over a decade of expansion, Qatar Airways, along with Emirates of Dubai, the world’s largest airline by international passenger miles travelled, and Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi, wowed customers with superior service and better-value fares.
在四月，美联航暴力拖拽乘客下机的视频席卷网络，当时中东的航空公司迅速作出表态，嘲笑美国竞争对手的服务态度。卡塔尔航空在其应用中写道“我们不提供拖拽服务”。这句话是讽刺却也没错，在近十年的扩张后，海湾地区三大航空——卡塔尔航空、阿联酋航空（也是世界上旅客总里程最多的航空公司）以及阿布扎比的阿提哈德航空——以其优质的服务和低廉的价格赢得了全球消费者的青睐。
Passengers joined them in droves, abandoning hub airports in America and Europe as well as the airlines that use them. Over the past decade the big three Gulf carriers and Turkish Airlines trebled their passenger numbers, to 155m in 2015 (see chart). They went a long way to dominating long-haul routes between Europe and Asia. Most international airlines rely on travellers going from or to their home countries, but customers of the four “super-connectors”, as they are known, mostly just change planes at the carriers’ hub airports en route to somewhere else.
大量的旅客转投中东航空的怀抱，不再选择在欧美机场转机以及欧美航线。在过去的十年内，海湾三大航以及土耳其航空的旅客数量翻了三倍，在2015年达到了1.55亿人次。他们花了相当大的功夫才做到亚欧长线航班的老大。一般来说，国际航班的旅客主要以进出国的人为主，但是，中东的这四家“超级运输者”的多数乘客并非如此，而是通过四大航的转机飞往世界各地。
A slowing of this spectacular growth was at some point inevitable. But it has been exacerbated by several things. First, the airlines have been deeply affected by the halving of the oil price since 2014, which has reduced their customers’ spending power and sharply cut demand for air travel from the Middle East itself. In particular, energy companies, responsible for 29% of GDP in the Gulf states, are slashing travel in business class, the most profitable cabin in airlines’ fleets.
如此惊人的增长势必会有减速阶段。不过，对中东四大航来说，有几件事更是雪上加霜：首先，2014年以来，油价下跌了近一半，给航空业沉重的一击，这不仅降低了乘客的购买力，同时削弱了四大航的价格优势，导致需求锐减。特别是能源企业，贡献了这些海湾国家GDP的近三分之一，在油价下跌后大举减少了对商务舱的预定，这对航空公司来说相当于失去了最大的利润油水。
Second, geography has turned sharply against them. When Sir Tim Clark, president of Emirates, helped Dubai’s government to set up the airline in 1985, he was quick to spot that a third of the world’s population lives within four hours’ flight of Dubai, and two-thirds within eight. “They were in the right place at the right time,” says Andrew Charlton of Aviation Advocacy, a consultancy. “But now they’ve been caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.” A series of terror attacks in the region and a coup in Turkey last July has prompted many passengers to shun airports in the Middle East and to go elsewhere to change planes. The latest figure (from March) for capacity utilisation for Middle Eastern airlines was just 73%, the lowest since 2006 and worse than at the height of the financial crisis in 2008-09.
其次，地理优势也成为了劣势。1985年，阿联酋航空的董事长蒂姆·克拉克爵士（Sir Tim Clark）帮助迪拜政府组建公司之初，就指出世界上三分之一的人口分布在距离迪拜四小时航程范围内，三分之二分布在八小时航程范围内。咨询公司Aviation Advocacy 的Andrew Charlton说道：“当时的他们占据了‘天时地利’，而如今，天时、地利二者都没有了。”去年七月，中东以及土耳其地区的一连串恐怖袭击事件吓跑了多数乘客。据三月以来的最新数据显示，在统计期内，中东航空公司的上座率仅为73%，为2006年以来的最低，比2008~2009年金融危机时期还要严重。
The third, and latest, blow has been a set of travel restrictions introduced by the Trump administration. Since January Mr. Trump has made efforts to ban the citizens of several Middle Eastern countries from entering America. Despite various legal challenges, those efforts have hit inbound traffic. In March America also banned electronic devices larger than a smartphone, chiefly laptops, from the cabins of planes flying between eight Middle Eastern countries and its own airports (Britain also introduced similar restrictions). The issuance of entry visas to America has been cut and security vetting increased.
再者，最新的打击来自美国政府实施的一系列旅行禁令。一月份以来，美国总统特朗普一直要将几个中东国家的居民挡在美国的国界线外。尽管遭遇到了一些法律阻碍，这些禁令的确给入美航线造成了很大冲击。三月份，美国还出台禁令，在八个中东国家到美国的航线中，禁止携带比智能手机大的电子产品（主要是笔记本电脑）进入机舱，英国也出台了类似的禁令。入美的签证数量也大幅减少，安检也随之升级。
After the first travel ban, demand fell by 35% on Emirates’ American routes. The banning of laptops has had an even worse effect on the Gulf carriers. Many passengers, particularly accountants, consultants and lawyers who are paid by the hour, are now choosing to fly via European hubs on other airlines, says Greeley Koch of the Association of Corporate Travel Executives, a trade group. The airlines have started lending their own devices to business-class passengers, but demand is still tumbling. In April Emirates cut flights to America by a fifth, a severe reversal after three years of rapid expansion there. For a network airline a drop in demand from one destination means falls on all the routes that connect with them.
在第一份旅行禁令发布后，阿联酋航空的美国航线需求量锐减35%。在笔记本电脑禁令发布后，影响更是严重。商旅高管总会的Greeley Koch表示，多数乘客，尤其是会计师、咨询师和律师等按小时收费的商旅乘客，现在都转投其他在在欧洲转机的航班。现在中东四大航开始向商务舱的乘客提供租借电子设备服务，却也于事无补。四月份，阿联酋航空减少了五分之一的美国航线，是自三年前大举开拓美国市场以来最严重的一次缩减。从航空系统的角度看，一个地区的航班需求量减少，意味着所有与此地区相关的航线均会受影响。
Even Sir Tim, normally upbeat, admits that it has been a “testing” time. Emirates said on May 11th that airline profits fell by 82% in the past year. Results for Etihad, expected this month, are likely to make grimmer reading. In March Turkish revealed its first annual loss since its privatision in 2004. Qatar, meanwhile, is still growing, partly because the government is able to support it. Its alliance with IAG, owner of British Airways, in which Qatar has a 20% stake, also means that it is still seeing increases in passengers originating from London and then flying on to Asian countries.
就连一向过分乐观的蒂姆爵士都承认，现在面临一大“考验”。3月11日，阿联酋航空公布去年的盈利下跌了82%。阿提哈德的相关数据预计本月公布，但可能更为惨淡。三月份，土耳其航空宣布去年经营亏损，这是该公司自2004年私有化以来的首次经营亏损。与此同时，卡塔尔航空仍在扩张。一方面是因为卡塔尔政府的财政支持；另一方面，作为英国航空的母公司IAG的盟友，卡塔尔航空持有英航的20%股份，从伦敦飞往亚洲各国的乘客数量增长意味着卡塔尔航空的继续扩张。
Etihad is worst-placed. It has pushed out its CEO, James Hogan, and is in the midst of a strategy overhaul. Its move to invest in European airlines, including Italy’s national carrier, Alitalia, and Germany’s Air Berlin, has been disastrous. Last week, Alitalia, of which it owns 49%, declared bankruptcy. The week before Air Berlin, in which it has a 30% stake, announced a record loss of €667m ($739m) for 2016. Etihad failed to understand the differences between doing business in the Middle East and in Europe, where, for example, there are trade unions, says Gerald Wissel of Airborne Consulting in Hamburg.
伊利哈德航空算是此次危机影响的重灾区了。目前，该公司解雇了CEO詹姆斯•霍根，还在进行战略重整。此前伊利哈德转而投资多几家欧洲航空公司，包括意大利的国家航空Alitalia以及德国的柏林，结果却惨不忍睹。其持股49%的Alitalia于上周宣布破产，持股30%的柏林航空也于上周宣布2016年亏损高达7.39亿美元。德国航空咨询机构Airborne Consulting的Gerald Wissel表示，阿提哈德其实没搞明白，在中东做生意的那一套并不适用于欧洲，比如，欧洲的工会就是他们不熟悉的。
Abu Dhabi’s inability to afford more subsidies, given a low oil price, means that radical options are on the table, including closing down Etihad and even seeking a merger with Emirates. But its rival is not keen on such a course, because using two hub airports would be hugely complex.
受低油价的影响，阿联酋政府现也无力提供更多补贴。因此，他们面临着重要的抉择，包括叫停伊利哈德或者寻求与阿联酋航空合并。不过，后者似乎并无此意，毕竟经营两个枢纽机场操作起来实在复杂。
Before such drastic moves become necessary, it is possible that the commercial pressure may ease. Airline passengers are starting to realise that recent terror attacks are not actually occurring on board planes, says MehmetNane, CEO of Pegasus, a Turkish low-cost carrier. Many are returning to Middle Eastern airlines, he claims. Mr. Trump’s travel restrictions may not be permanent. Alternatively, if his administration extends the laptop ban to include inbound flights from Europe, a step it is reportedly considering, the attractiveness of Gulf airlines relative to European carriers will improve.
不过，在壮士扼腕之前，事情也许还有转机。土耳其廉价航空Pegasus CEO Mehmet Nane表示，近期航空旅客逐渐意识到近期发生的恐怖袭击与飞机并无关系，越来越多的人重回中东航空的怀抱。而且，特朗普的旅行限令总有结束的时候。另外，有传闻称特朗普政府准备把笔记本禁令的航班范围扩大到欧洲入美的航班。如果消确切，那么，中东航空就会比欧洲的航空公司更有吸引力。
Yet the breakneck growth of the recent past is unlikely to resume. Two new air-craft—the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350— make it profitable to carry smaller numbers of passengers over long-haul routes. Secondary cities half a world away from each other can increasingly sustain direct connections. That eliminates the need to change planes in the Middle East. Big legacy carriers, in addition to long-haul, low-cost pioneers such as Norwegian and Air Asia x, are buying these planes in huge numbers. The fact that Airbus has 750 outstanding orders for its A350, compared with just 107 for the A380s that Emirates flies, shows where airlines think the future of aviation is heading. But before they celebrate their diminished force, they should thank the super-connectors for showing them how to raise their game.
然而，这并不会弥补前段时间的惨重损失。新型的波音787与空中巴士A350两种机型能以小容量和飞长线航班而实现盈利。现在，即使距离大半个地球的两个小城市也能有更多的直航机会。这使得越来越多的乘客无需在中东转机。大型航空公司以及像挪威快线、亚航X这样以跑长线闻名的廉价航空都在大量购买这两种机型。事实上，空中巴士A350的订单达到了750架，远超过A380s的107架，而后者是阿联酋航空的主力。这也反映了民航的未来趋势。其它航空公司在为中东四大航的没落而欢欣鼓舞时，不要忘记正是他们教会了大家如何提高民航的自身竞争力，这一点上，真的应该感谢他们。
编译：王朦晰
审校：朱小倩
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人