外刊精读：再见，全球化

Goodbye globalization

A more nationalistic and self-sufficient era beckons. It won’t be richer—or safer

再见，全球化

一个更加民族主义和自给自足的时代将要开启了。它不会更富有——或更安全

Beckons：vi. 有可能发生；召唤。

例句：She's an excellent student, for whom a wonderful future beckons. 她是个优秀的学生，美妙的前程在召唤她。

Even before the pandemic, globalisation was in trouble. The open system of trade that had dominated the world economy for decades had been damaged by the financial crash and the Sino-American trade war. Now it is reeling from its third body-blow in a dozen years as lockdowns have sealed borders and disrupted commerce. The number of passengers at Heathrow has dropped by 97% year-on-year; Mexican car exports fell by 90% in April; 21% of transpacific container-sailings in May have been cancelled. As economies reopen, activity will recover, but don’t expect a quick return to a carefree world of unfettered movement and free trade. The pandemic will politicise travel and migration and entrench a bias towards self-reliance. This inward-looking lurch will enfeeble the recovery, leave the economy vulnerable and spread geopolitical instability.

即使是在疫情之前，全球化也有问题。几十年来一直引导着世界经济的贸易开放系统已经被金融危机和中美贸易战破坏。现在，因为疫情导致的封锁关闭了边界、扰乱了贸易，它又受到了十几年来的第三次打击的影响。希思罗机场的乘客数量同比下降了97％；墨西哥的汽车出口在4月份下降了90％。5月，21％的跨太平洋集装箱运输被取消。随着经济的重新开放，经济活动将恢复，但不要指望它能迅速回到那个有着不受约束的流动和自由贸易的无忧无虑的世界。这种大流行将使旅行和移民政治化，并使自力更生的趋势根深蒂固。这种自我封闭的突然转向将使复苏步履蹒跚，让经济脆弱并扩大地缘政治的不稳定性。

Reeling from：受…的不好影响。

例句：Parts of North America are reeling from the so-called bomb cyclone. 北美洲部分地区正遭受所谓的爆炸气旋影响。

Body-blow:  n. 沉重的打击；重大挫折.

例句；Having all her research notes stolen was a real body blow for her.她的研究笔记全部被盗对她是个沉重的打击。

Carefree：adj. 无忧无虑的。

例句：Chantal remembered carefree past summers at the beach. 钱特尔记起了从前在海滩上度过的无忧无虑的夏日时光。

Unfettered：adj. 自由的；不受约束的。

例句：In writing poetry, one is unfettered by the normal rules of sentence structure.创作诗歌的时候，诗人是不受常规句法规则限制的。

Entrench：vt. 使处于牢固地位，使根深柢固，牢固确立（尤指观念、问题）。

例句：The government's main task was to prevent inflation from entrenching itself. 政府的主要任务是防止通货膨胀问题变得积重难返。

Inward-looking：adj. 只关注自身的;封闭的。

例句：an insular and inward-looking community. 一个偏狭、封闭的团体

Lurch：n. 突然的倾斜、摇晃或改变。

例句：The party's lurch (= sudden change) to the left will lose it a lot of support.该党突然转向左派将会失去很多人的支持。

Enfeeble：vt. 使衰弱；使无力。

The world has had several epochs of integration, but the trading system that emerged in the 1990s went further than ever before. China became the world’s factory and borders opened to people, goods, capital and information. After Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 most banks and some multinational firms pulled back. Trade and foreign investment stagnated relative to GDP, a process this newspaper later called slowbalisation. Then came President Donald Trump’s trade wars, which mixed worries about blue-collar jobs and China’s autocratic capitalism with a broader agenda of chauvinism and contempt for alliances. At the moment when the virus first started to spread in Wuhan last year, America’s tariff rate on imports was back to its highest level since 1993 and both America and China had begun to decouple their technology industries.

世界已经经历了几个融合时期，但是1990年代出现的贸易体系比以往任何时候都更加广泛。中国成为了世界工厂，对人、货物、资本和信息开放了边界。2008年雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒闭后，大多数银行和一些跨国公司撤也退出了市场。贸易和外国投资相对于GDP停滞不前，这个过程我们在后面称其为“停滞过程”。然后是唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战，这场战争把对蓝领工作和中国专制资本主义的担忧与更广泛的沙文主义和对联盟的蔑视的政治议题混在了一起。在去年该病毒首次在武汉开始传播的那一刻，美国对进口商品的关税税率回到了自1993年以来的最高水平，并且美国和中国都开始将彼此的技术产业割裂开来。

Epoch：n.（尤指出现新进步和大变革的）时代，纪元，时期。

例句：The president said that his country was moving into a new epoch which would be one of lasting peace.总统说他的国家正在步入一个长治久安的新时代。

Pull back：退出；退却。

例句：The British government threatened to make public its disquiet but then pulled back. 英国政府威胁要将其担忧公之于众，但后来没有这么做。

Stagnate：vi. 停滞不前；不发展。

例句：The electronics industry is showing signs of stagnating after 15 years of tremendous growth.电子产业在经过15年的飞速发展之后出现了停滞不前的迹象。

Autocratic：adj. 独裁的;专制的;独断专行的。

例句：an autocratic style of government/leadership/management独断专行的统治方式／领导风格／管理方法

Agenda：n. （政治）议题 。

Contempt：n. 蔑视；轻视。

例句：He has contempt for those beyond his immediate family circle. 他鄙视直系亲属圈子以外的人。

Decouple：vt. 使(国家、机构或观点)分离;（使）脱离;（使）互不相干。

例句：The issue threatened to decouple Europe from the United States. 这一问题可能会割裂欧洲同美国的关系。

Since January a new wave of disruption has spread westward from Asia. Factory, shop and office closures have caused demand to tumble and prevented suppliers from reaching customers. The damage is not universal. Food is still getting through, Apple insists it can still make iPhones and China’s exports have held up so far, buoyed by sales of medical gear. But the overall effect is savage. World goods trade may shrink by 10-30% this year. In the first ten days of May exports from South Korea, a trade powerhouse, fell by 46% year- on-year, probably the worst decline since records began in 1967.

Tumble：v. (物价等)暴跌，剧降 

例句：House prices have tumbled by almost 30 per cent in real terms since mid-1989. 房价自 1989 年中期以来实际上暴跌了近 30%。

Hold up: 支撑;支承。

Buoye：vt. 鼓舞；鼓励，使…更自信。

例句：She was buoyed (up) by the warm reception her audience gave her.观众们热烈的欢迎使她倍受鼓舞。

自一月以来，新一波的破坏浪潮已从亚洲向西方扩散。工厂、商店和办公室的关闭导致需求急剧下降，阻止了供应商接触客户。破坏不是普遍的。食品仍在流通中，苹果坚持认为它仍然可以生产iPhone，而到目前为止，中国的出口一直受到医疗设备销售的提振。但是总体影响是很严重的。今年世界货物贸易可能萎缩10-30％。5月的前十天，来自韩国——一个贸易强国——的出口同比下降了46％，这可能是自1967年有记录以来的最大跌幅。

The underlying anarchy of global governance is being exposed. France and Britain have squabbled over quarantine rules, China is threatening Australia with punitive tariffs for demanding an investigation into the virus’s origins and the White House remains on the warpath about trade. Despite some instances of co-operation during the pandemic, such as the Federal Reserve’s loans to other central banks, America has been reluctant to act as the world’s leader. Chaos and division at home have damaged its prestige. China’s secrecy and bullying have confirmed that it is unwilling—and unfit—to pick up the mantle. Around the world, public opinion is shifting away from globalisation. People have been disturbed to find that their health depends on a brawl to import protective equipment and on the migrant workers who work in care homes and harvest crops.

全球治理的混乱状态正在暴露。法国和英国在检疫规则上争论不休，中国以惩罚性关税就澳大利亚求其对病毒的起源进行调查之事威胁澳大利亚，而白宫仍对贸易持敌对态度。尽管在大流行期间发生了一些合作事例，例如美联储向其他中央银行的贷款，但美国一直不愿担任世界领导人的角色。国内的混乱和分裂破坏了它的声望。中国的对信息的过度保密和恃强凌弱的行为已经证实，它不愿意——也不合适——承担这个职责。在世界范围内，公众舆论正在向去全球化的方向转变。令人们不安的是，他们的健康依赖于进口保护设备的斗争以及在护理院工作和收割农作物的移民工作者。

Anarchy：n. 无政府（状态）；无法无天；无秩序；混乱。

Punitive：adj. 处罚的；惩罚性的.

例句：Other economists say any punitive measures against foreign companies would hurt US interests. 其他经济学家说任何针对外国公司的惩罚性措施都会损害美国的利益。

Mantle：n. 责任，职责。

例句：She has the intellectual form to take up the mantle of leadership. 她具备担当领导职责的聪明才智。

This is just the start. Although the flow of information is largely free outside China, the movement of people, goods and capital is not. Consider people first. The Trump administration is proposing to curtail immigration further, arguing that jobs should go to Americans instead. Other countries are likely to follow. Travel is restricted, limiting the scope to find work, inspect plants and drum up orders. Some 90% of people live in countries with largely closed borders. Many governments will open up only to countries with similar health protocols: one such “travel bubble” is mooted to include Australia and New Zealand and, perhaps, Taiwan and Singapore. The industry is signalling that the disruption to travel will be lasting. Airbus has cut production by a third and Emirates, a symbol of globalisation, expects no recovery until 2022.

这只是开始。尽管信息流动在中国境外基本上是自由的，但人员、货物和资本的流动却并非如此。首先说人员流动。特朗普政府提议进一步减少移民，认为工作机会应该给美国人。其他国家很可能会效仿。出行受到限制，限制了寻找工作、检查工厂和招揽订单的范围。大约90％的人生活在边界很封闭的国家。许多政府将只向具有类似卫生协议的国家开放：比如说“旅行泡泡”计划在讨论要包括澳大利亚和新西兰，也许还有台湾和新加坡。业内人士表示，旅行中断将一直持续下去。空中客机产量已经削减了三分之一，而象征全球化的阿联酋航空预计到2022年之前都不会恢复生产。

Curtail：vt. 制止；减少；缩减；限制。

例句：The last government severely curtailed trade union rights.上届政府严格限制工会权利。

Moot：vt. 提出…供讨论。

例句：The idea was first mooted as long ago as the 1840s.早在19世纪40年代，这个观点就首次被提出进行讨论了。

travel bubble: 澳大利亚和新西兰于5月5日达成一致——一旦两国间的旅行恢复，将向对方放开无需隔离的人员流动，因澳大利亚和新西兰分处塔斯曼海（Tasman Sea）两侧，这项安排名为trans-Tasman travel bubble。“travel bubble”这一表述并不常见，英美媒体在报道时大多附上简要说明：“旅行走廊”（travel corridor）、“安全区”（safe zone）。考虑到trans-Tasman travel bubble目前只涵盖澳大利亚和新西兰，可能比较像“旅行走廊”；如果真如报道所言，未来其范围进一步扩大到太平洋岛国（broaden the bubble to include the Pacific Islands），就更接近“旅行安全区”了。（解释来源于《参考消息》）。

Airbus：n. 空中客车（运送中、短途乘客的大型飞机）。

Trade will suffer as countries abandon the idea that firms and goods are treated equally regardless of where they come from. Governments and central banks are asking taxpayers to underwrite national firms through their stimulus packages, creating a huge and ongoing incentive to favour them. And the push to bring supply chains back home in the name of resilience is accelerating. On May 12th Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, told the nation that a new era of economic self-reliance has begun. Ja- pan’s covid-19 stimulus includes subsidies for firms that repatriate factories; European Union officials talk of “strategic autonomy” and are creating a fund to buy stakes in firms. America is urging Intel to build plants at home. Digital trade is thriving but its scale is still modest. The sales abroad of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft are equivalent to just 1.3% of world exports.

因为各国放弃了企业和商品无论来自哪里都受到平等对待的想法，所以贸易将会受到影响。政府和中央银行通过他们的经济刺激计划正在要求纳税人来为国有企业承保，这就产生了一个巨大且持续有利于国有企业的动机。并且以恢复力为名将供应链带回国内的努力正在加速。5月12日，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)向全国宣布，一个经济自力更生的新时代已经开始。日本的covid-19刺激计划包括对迁回工厂的公司提供补贴;欧盟官员谈到了“战略自主权”，并正在创建一个基金来购买公司的股份。美国正敦促英特尔在国内建厂。数字贸易正在蓬勃发展，但其规模仍然不大。亚马逊(Amazon)、苹果(Apple)、Facebook和微软(Microsoft)的海外销售额仅占全球出口额的1.3%。

Underwrite： 承担经济责任，提供财力支持；承保；承购，包销（未获认购的股份）；在……下面写

Stimulus：n.

1.促进因素；激励因素；刺激物 

例句：Books provide children with ideas and a stimulus for play. 书不仅给孩子们以思想，而且使他们玩得更有意思。

2.（使生物产生反应的）刺激，刺激物 

sensory/verbal/visual stimuli 感官/言语/视觉刺激

Incentive：n./adj

1.n. ~ (for/to sb/sth) (to do sth) 激励；刺激；鼓励 pl. incentives

2.adj. 激励的；刺激的

Resilience：n.

1.快速恢复的能力；适应力

2.还原能力；弹力

Subsidy (pl. subsidies)：n. 补助金，补贴，津贴

Repatriate：v./n.

v.1.遣送回国；遣返

例句：The refugees were forcibly repatriated. 难民被强制遣送回国。

2.寄（钱）回国；将（利润）调回本国

n.被遣返回国者

派生词：repatriation n.

eg:the repatriation of immigrants/profits 遣返移民；调回利润  

a voluntary repatriation programme 自愿遣返计划

Stake：n./v.

n.1.桩；标桩；篱笆桩;

2.火刑柱;

3. 股本；股份 eg:a 20% stake in the business 那家公司20%的股份;

4.（在公司、计划等中的）重大利益，重大利害关系

例句：She has a personal stake in the success of the play. 这出戏成功与否对她个人有重大利害关系;

5.赌注;

6.赛马奖金

v.1.（就某事）以…打赌，拿…冒险;2.用桩支撑

Modest：adj.

1.些许的；不太大（或太贵、太重要等）的eg:modest improvements/reforms 不太显著的改进╱改革;

2. 谦虚的；谦逊的;3.庄重的；朴素的；不性感的

Equivalent：adj./n.

1.adj.（价值、数量、意义、重要性等）相等的，相同的

2.n. ~ (of/to sth) 相等的东西；等量；对应词

The flow of capital is also suffering, as long- term investment sinks. Chinese venture-capital investment in America dropped to $400m in the first quarter of this year, 60% below its level two years ago. Multi- national firms may cut their cross-border investment by a third this year. America has just instructed its main federal pension fund to stop buying Chinese shares, and so far this year countries representing 59% of world GDP have tightened their rules on foreign investment. As governments try to pay down their new debts by taxing firms and investors, some countries may be tempted to further restrict the flow of capital across borders.

随着长期投资的减少，资本流动也受到了影响。今年第一季度，中国在美国的风险投资降至4亿美元，比两年前的水平低了60%。跨国公司今年可能会减少三分之一的跨国投资。美国刚刚指示其主要的联邦养老基金停止购买中国股票，今年到目前为止，占世界GDP 59%的国家已经收紧了对外国投资的规定。当政府试图通过向企业和投资者征税来偿还新债务时，一些国家可能会忍不住进一步限制资本跨境流动。

Sink：v./n./adj.

v. 1.下沉；下陷；沉没;2.使下沉；使沉没;3.倒下；坐下;4.下沉；下陷；沉降；5. 降低；减少；减弱 eg:The pound has sunk to its lowest recorded level against the dollar. 英镑对美元的比价降到了有记录以来最低水平；6.变低；变小；7.挖，掘（深坑、深洞）；8.埋入；打下；9.使失败；使受挫；阻挠；10.（高尔夫球）击球入洞；（斯诺克）击球入袋；11.猛喝；灌

n. （厨房里的）洗涤池，洗碗槽

adj. 位于社会条件差的贫穷地区的；贫民窟的

eg:the misery of life in sink estates 贫民窟里的悲惨生活

Venture-capital： 风险资本

Shares：n./v.

n. [金融] 股份（share的复数形式）

v. [计] 共享，共有；分配（share的三单形式

Pay down： 用现金支付；当场支付；付头款

It’s lonely out there

外面很寂寞

Don’t be fooled that a trading system with an unstable web of national controls will be more humane or safer. Poorer countries will find it harder to catch up and, in the rich world, life will be more expensive and less free. The way to make supply chains more resilient is not to domesticate them, which concentrates risk and forfeits economies of scale, but to diversify them. Moreover, a fractured world will make solving global problems harder, including finding a vaccine and securing an economic recovery.

不要以为一个由不稳定的国家控制网络组成的贸易体系会更人性化或更安全。贫穷的国家将会发现很难追赶上富裕国家的发展，而富裕的国家生活将会更昂贵、更不自由。使供应链更具弹性的方法不是将其驯化，而是使其多样化，驯化方法将集中风险并丧失规模经济。此外，一个支离破碎的世界将使全球性问题更加难以解决，包括寻找疫苗和确保经济的复苏问题。

Humane：adj. 善良的；仁慈的；人道的

Domesticate：v.

1.驯养，驯化（动物）;2.驯化，培育（植物或农作物）;3. 使精于家务；使喜爱家居

Concentrate：v./n.

v.1. 集中（注意力）；聚精会神;2.使…集中（或集合、聚集）;3.（使）浓缩

concentrate on sth 集中时间做某事

n.浓缩物

Forfeit：v./n./adj.

v.（因犯错）丧失，被没收

例句：If you cancel your flight, you will forfeit your deposit. 乘客取消航班订位，定金概不退还。

n.罚金；没收物

Diversify：v.

1.~ (sth) (into sth)  增加…的品种；从事多种经营；扩大业务范围 

例句：Farmers are being encouraged to diversify into new crops. 目前正鼓励农民兼种新的农作物;

2.（使）多样化，变化，不同

Moreover: adv. 而且；此外

Fracture: n./v.

n.1.（指状态）骨折，断裂，折断，破裂

eg:a fracture of the leg/skull 腿骨╱颅骨骨折

a compound/simple fracture (= one in which the broken bone comes/does not come through the skin) 复合（开放）骨折；单纯（闭合）骨折;

2.（指事实）骨折，断裂，折断，破裂

v.1.（使）断裂，折断，破裂；2.（使）分裂

Secure: adj./v.

adj.1.安心的；有把握的;

2.可靠的；牢靠的；稳固的

eg:a secure job/income 稳定的工作╱收入;

3.安全的；稳妥的;

4.严密把守的；牢固的；坚固的

5.牢固的；稳固的；坚固的;

v.1.（尤指经过努力）获得，取得，实现

eg:to secure a contract/deal 订立合同；达成协议;

2.拴牢；扣紧；关严;

3.保护；保卫；使安全

eg:to secure a property against intruders 保护房产以免外人闯入;

4.抵押eg:a loan secured on the house 以房子作抵押的贷款

Tragically, this logic is no longer fashionable. Those three body-blows have so wounded the open system of trade that the powerful arguments in its favour are being neglected. Wave goodbye to the greatest era of globalisation—and worry about what is going to take its place.

可悲的是，这种逻辑已不再流行。这三次沉重的打击对开放的贸易体系造成了如此严重的伤害，以至于支持开放贸易体系的有力论据被忽视了。向全球化最伟大的时代挥手告别，并为即将取代它的时代而担忧。

Tragically：adv.

悲剧地；悲惨地

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本文责编 ✎ 金钟罩

本期编辑 ✎ Ben