WD | 饶旭东 等：农业研发收益下降与发展相关吗？【转】

Rao Xudong, Hurley Terrance M, Pardey Philip G. Are agricultural R&D returns declining anddevelopment dependent?. World Development, 2019, 122:27–37.

摘要简单翻译：

尽管人们担心在过去的几十年中收益是否一直在下降并且在世界不同地区之间分布不均，但业内普遍达成共识，即农业研究与开发（R＆D）取得了很高的经济收益。这项研究考察了报告的农业研发收益的时间趋势（即增加或减少）和区域发展差异。使用新近更新和扩展的全球农业研发估计收益数据库和稳健的统计方法，我们发现，在考虑了方法变化和随时间变化的其他研究属性之后，当代农业研发投资的收益与以往一样高。我们还进行了Oaxaca分解，以评估各国之间在研究属性（例如，对哪些研究进行了评估，由谁以及如何进行评估）之间的相对重要性以及这些属性与IRR的关系（例如，模型参数估计）之间的差异。我们发现，研究属性的区域差异在发达国家往往会导致较高的内部收益率估计，而发展中国家与发达国家在属性对估计内部收益率的边际影响方面的差异往往会在发展中国家导致较高的估计值。

Abstract

There is widespread professional consensus that agricultural research and development (R&D) realizes high economic returns, though there are concerns as to whether the returns have been declining over the past few decades and are unevenly distributed among different regions in the world. This study examines both the time trend (i.e., increasing or decreasing) and regional developmental differences in the reported returns to agricultural R&D. Using a newly updated and expanded global database of estimated returns to agricultural R&D and a robust statistical methodology, we find that after accounting for methodological changes and other study attributes that have varied over time, the contemporary returns to agricultural R&D investments are as high as ever. We also conduct a Oaxaca decomposition to assess the relative importance of differences among countries in study attributes (e.g., what research was evaluated, by whom, and how) versus differences in how these attributes relate to the IRR (e.g., model parameter estimates). We find that the regional differences in study attributes tend to result in higher IRR estimates in developed countries, whereas developing versus developed country differences in the marginal effects of the attributes on the estimated IRRs tend to result in higher estimates in developing countries.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.05.009

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