周五的市场充斥着恐慌情绪。
从隔夜美股大跌开始，传导到亚太股市跳空低开，贸易战开打的新闻经过媒体的层层解读渲染，让投资者惊恐不安。
然而如果去看特朗普在签署针对中国的行政备忘录之前的演讲全文，会发现事情并没有那么简单。
特朗普在讲话中反复强调正在和中方沟通，意味着签署备忘录很可能是一个谈判筹码。而且谈判的意图也绝不仅仅在大宗商品关税甚至是制造业回流问题，中国在高新技术行业的发展和专利问题，才是美国人最关心的。
究竟什么才是美国签署备忘录，乃至提出贸易战真正的意图？我们应当还原当时的场景，从当事人的言行中去挖掘和分析。
本文作者：大卫翁
Diplomatic Room
12:45 P.M. EDT
THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you everybody. This has been long in the making. You’ve heard many, many speeches by me and talks by me, and interviews where I talk about unfair trade practices. We’ve lost, over a fairly short period of time, 60,000 factories in our country — closed, shuttered, gone. Six million jobs, at least, gone. And now they’re starting to come back. You see what’s happening with Chrysler, with Foxconn, with so many other companies wanting to come back into the United States.
（特朗普专门提到了富士康Foxconn，应该指的是去年下半年传出富士康会在威斯康星投资一百亿美元建LCD液晶屏厂的新闻。然而富士康还要登陆A股呢，一个是要它投资，一个是帮它融资，你说它会向着谁？）
But we have one particular problem. And I view them as a friend; I have tremendous respect for President Xi. We have a great relationship. They’re helping us a lot in North Korea. And that’s China.
（特朗普提到在朝鲜事件上中国帮助了美国很多，之前所谓美国绕开中国和朝鲜接触的说法应该是不成立的）
But we have a trade deficit, depending on the way you calculate, of $504 billion. Now, some people would say it’s really $375 billion. Many different ways of looking at it, but any way you look at it, it is the largest deficit of any country in the history of our world. It’s out of control.
We have a tremendous intellectual property theft situation going on, which likewise is hundreds of billions of dollars. And that’s on a yearly basis. I’ve spoken to the President. I’ve spoken to representatives of China. We’ve been dealing with it very seriously.
（从贸易逆差说到知识产权问题，后面特别提到和中国领导人和代表都有沟通，双方都在非常认真地对待此事。注意，这是第一次提到双方在沟通。）
As you know, we’re renegotiating NAFTA. We’ll see how that turns out. Many countries are calling to negotiate better trade deals because they don’t want to have to pay the steel and aluminum tariffs. And we are negotiating with various countries — Mr. Lighthizer, Mr. Ross.
（映证了之前对钢铁和铝产品征税只是声东击西，先给一鞭子再豁免，为的是稳住其他贸易伙伴，再集中力量对付中国。川普这招666）
We are just starting a negotiation with the European Union because they’ve really shut out our country to a large extent. They have barriers that — they can trade with us but we can’t trade with them. They’re very strong barriers. They have very high tariffs. We don’t. It’s just not fair.
NAFTA has been a very bad deal for the United States, but we’ll make it better or we’ll have to do something else. The deal we have with South Korea is a very one-sided deal. It’s a deal that has to be changed.
（背景补充：特朗普刚签署了对韩国的贸易关税豁免。）
So we have a lot of things happening. But in particular, with China, we’re going to be doing a Section 301 trade action. It could be about $60 billion but that’s really just a fraction of what we’re talking about.
（600亿美元这个数字第一次出现，特朗普表示这还只是个开始。大部分媒体那些扎眼的标题都是从这里出来的。）
I’ve been speaking with the highest Chinese representatives, including the President, and I’ve asked them to reduce the trade deficit immediately by $100 billion. It’s a lot. So that would be anywhere from 25 percent, depending on the way you figure, to maybe something even more than that. But we have to do that.
（第二次提到和中国的沟通，包括和领导人和代表。）
The word that I want to use is “reciprocal.” When they charge 25 percent for a car to go in, and we charge 2 percent for their car to come into the United States, that’s not good. That’s how China rebuilt itself. The tremendous money that we’ve paid since the founding of the World Trade Organization — which has actually been a disaster for us. It’s been very unfair to us. The arbitrations are very unfair. The judging has been very unfair. And knowingly, we always have a minority and it’s not fair.
（Reciprocal是对等的意思，这个词后面还会反复出现。特朗普直指中国进口汽车的高关税，不过就算美国对中国进口汽车只征收2%的税，进口量有多少？）
So we’re talking to World Trade, we’re talking to NAFTA, we’re talking to China, we’re talking to the European Union. And I will say, every single one of them wants to negotiate. And I believe that, in many cases — maybe all cases — we’ll end up negotiating a deal.
（每一次的沟通，不管是和NAFTA，中国，还是欧洲，最后都会协商一个deal！划重点！协商一个deal才是最终目的！）
So we’ve spoken to China and we’re in the midst of a very large negotiation. We’ll see where it takes us. But in the meantime, we are sending a Section 301 action. I’ll be signing it right here, right now. I’d like to ask Bob Lighthizer to say a few words about the 301 and where we are in that negotiation.
（重点来了！特朗普明确表示，正在和中国方面沟通，正在进行一个大型谈判！所以现在动用301，只是为了给谈判中加些砝码！）
And we’re doing things for this country that should have been done for many, many years. We’ve had this abuse by many other countries and groups of countries that were put together in order to take advantage of the United States, and we don’t want that to happen. We’re not going to let that happen. It’s probably one of the reasons I was elected; maybe one of the main reasons. But we’re not going to let that happen.
We have, right now, an $800 billion trade deficit with the world. So think of that. So let’s say we have 500 to 375, but let’s say we have 500 with China, but we have 800 total with the world. That would mean that China is more than half. So we’re going to get it taken care of. And, frankly, it’s going to make us a much stronger, much richer nation.
（美国贸易逆差一般是对中国的，这是事实，但减少逆差就能让美国更强大更富有，哥们你确定吗？中国制造的诸多商品，早已成为美国人民，特别是工薪阶层的日常必需品了吧？）
The word is “reciprocal.” That’s the word I want everyone to remember. We want reciprocal — mirror. Some people call it a mirror tariff or a mirror tax. Just use the word reciprocal. If they charge us, we charge them the same thing. That’s the way it’s got to be. That’s not the way it is. For many, many years — for many decades, it has not been that way.
（可能是觉得Reciprocal这个词说的还不清楚，此处又换成了mirror，强调的还是要对等。）
And I will say, the people we’re negotiating with — smilingly, they really agree with us. I really believe they cannot believe they’ve gotten away with this for so long.
（再次强调，美国在和各路人等谈判协商。）
I’ll talk to Prime Minister Abe of Japan and others — great guy, friend of mine — and there will be a little smile on their face. And the smile is, “I can’t believe we’ve been able to take advantage of the United States for so long.” So those days are over.
（很怀疑安倍的笑容会是在说，啊没想到我们可以占美国这么久的便宜……他的笑容更可能会是幸灾乐祸吧——啊当年美日贸易战我们被搞得那么惨，现在也轮到中国了哈哈哈）
Ambassador Lighthizer, thank you.
AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER: Well, thank you very much, Mr. President. First of all, for those of you who don’t know, Section 301 is a statute that gives substantial power, authority to the President to correct actions in certain circumstances where there’s unfair acts, policies, or practices by our trading partners.
（现任贸易代表莱特希泽，一个强硬派，二话不说，直接说明301调查的含义。）
In this case, the area is technology. Technology is probably the most important part of our economy. There’s 44 million people who work in high-tech knowledge areas. No country has as much technology-intensive industry as the United States. And technology is really the backbone of the future of the American economy.
（揭晓答案，真正贸易战针对的是根本不是大宗商品，而是科技领域。因为中国的科技发展威胁到美国了。）
Given these problems, the President asked USTR to conduct a study. We conducted a thorough study. We had hearings. We reviewed tens of thousands of pages of documents. We talked to many, many business people. We had testimony, as I say.
（针对中国知识产权和科技领域的301调查其实是去年8月就开始的，迄今半年过去了，是时候得出结论了。）
And we concluded that, in fact, China does have a policy of forced technology transfer; of requiring licensing at less than economic value; of state capitalism, wherein they go in and buy technology in the United States in non-economic ways; and then, finally, of cyber theft.
（中国想在科技领域弯道超车，肯定得有些擦边球招数啊。否则美国人会轻易将科技领先的位置拱手相让吗？）
The result of this has been that the President has analyzed it — we have a 200-page study which we will put out — and he has concluded that we should put in place tariffs on appropriate products — we can explain later how we concluded what products they are; that we would put investment restrictions on China with respect to high technology; and that we’ll file a WTO case. Because one of the actions here does involve a WTO violation.
（美国并没有完全绕过WTO，还有一个case会在WTO体系下去投诉中国。）
This is an extremely important action, very significant and very important for the future of the country, really, across industries. And I would really like to thank you very much, Mr. President, for giving me the opportunity to work on it.
（呵呵。最后拍老板一下马屁，感谢给工作啊。）
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much, Bob. Secretary Ross.
SECRETARY ROSS: Intellectual property rights are our future, and it’s no accident that in June of this year, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office will issue its 10 millionth patent — 10 million patents. There’s no country in the history of the world that remotely approaches that.
（在科技领域更重要的是专利，是知识产权，这是美国目前的镇国之宝了。）
So the steel and aluminum actions we’ve taken deal more or less with the present. This action on intellectual property rights deals with the future. So we’re trying to solve both today’s problem and problems that otherwise will be forthcoming. That’s why these actions are so important and so important in unison with each other. We will end up negotiating these things, rather than fighting over them, in my view.
（再次揭露重点——钢铁和铝产品的关税是为了现在，而针对知识产权的贸易行动是为了未来。美国人很清楚如果让中国在科技领域迎头赶上，结果是什么。但最后一句也值得玩味——美国会和对手谈判协商这些事情，而不是fighting。）
THE PRESIDENT: Mike Pence, would you like to say something?
THE VICE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Mr. President, and to all our honored guests. Today’s action sends a clear message that this President and our entire administration are determined to put American jobs and American workers first.
（呵呵。）
The action the President will take today under Section 301 also makes it clear that the era of economic surrender is over. The United States of America is taking targeted and focused action to protect not only American jobs, but America’s technology, which will power and drive an innovation economy for decades to come.
（副总统也来强调一下重点，这次行动压根就不是为了就业，而是为了美国未来几十年的领先地位。）
It is just one more step of a promise made and a promise kept by President Trump.
THE PRESIDENT: So we’ll sign right now. I just want to let everybody know, just for a second time, that we are in the midst of very major and very positive negotiations. Positive for the United States and, actually, very positive for other countries also.
（特朗普最后一次强调，现在和对手还在谈判中！而且是在一个非常有建设性的谈判中！）
We have some of our great business leaders — and leaders, period — right behind me. I may ask Marillyn — Lockheed — the leading woman’s business executive in this country, according to many. And we buy billions and billions of dollars’ worth of that beautiful F-35. It’s stealth. You cannot see it. Is that correct?
（Marillyn是洛克希德马丁——世界第一的武器制造商——的女CEO。这个时候把她抬出来，无非是让美国人意识到中国在军事技术领域也可能会借助一些手段赶超美国，这样他们危机感会更强。）
MS. HEWSON: That’s correct, Mr. President.
THE PRESIDENT: Better be correct. Right?
MS. HEWSON: Absolutely.
THE PRESIDENT: Marillyn, please say a few words.
MS. HEWSON: Well, thank you, Mr. President. I would just say that this is a very important moment for our country, in that we are addressing what is a critical area for the aerospace and defense industry, and that is protecting our intellectual property. As has been expressed, that is a threat to us if we have that stolen from our companies, because that is the lifeblood of our companies.
（让一个中国最不可能从非正常途径获得技术的行业作为代表，也是很讽刺了。）
And so, we very much welcome this action on the part of the Trump administration and the President of the United States. Thank you.
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Marillyn.
This is the first of many. This is number one, but this is the first of many.
(The memorandum is signed.)
Thank you all very much. Marillyn. Thank you very much.
MS. HEWSON: Thank you, Mr. President.
Q Mr. President, would you still like to testify to the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller?
THE PRESIDENT: I would like to. I would like to.
END
12:58 P.M. EDT
OK。到这里全部看完了，结论也很清楚了，离贸易战开展还有最后15天。
最后强调几个重点：
第一，美国和中国正在谈判，此次签备忘录是一个重磅砝码。因为美国商务部还会有15天的时间去确定关税涉及的商品名单，现在还没有开始征收关税。
第二，科技和知识产权领域才是美国最重视的领域，制造业回流只是一个幌子，钢铁和铝制品的关税更是声东击西。就像现在有的一些客观分析里说的，是中国现在在技术领域的飞速发展让美国产生了深深的戒备之心。九十年代那一轮的知识产权谈判最终带来了中国在文化领域的开放，那这一轮的谈判又会带来什么呢？
第三，静观未来15天的形势变化，不到最后一刻不要随便说贸易战已经开打了。至少中国商务部目前的反制措施完全是针对“钢铁和铝产品关税”这件事的（商务部网站上的标题是《商务部新闻发言人就中方发布针对美国进口钢铁和铝产品232措施的中止减让产品清单发表谈话》），根本没有提到昨晚白宫发生的事情，这背后是留了余地的。
云锋金融贸易战系列研究：