柳叶刀-感染病学 | COVID-19流行病学及传播动力学领域取得重要进展
《柳叶刀-感染病学》(The Lancet Infectious Diseases )近期发表复旦大学公共卫生学院余宏杰课题组在2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的流行病学及传播动力学领域取得的重要进展。研究旨在阐述中国大陆湖北省以外地区COVID-19的流行病学特征及传播动力学参数的动态变化。文章强调,防控措施的有效性仅在措施落实到位时才适用,如果放松现有的公共卫生干预或人群行为发生重大变化,可能会导致后续传播增加。鉴于COVID-19正在全球蔓延,此研究结果不仅为中国制定防控策略提供重要科学证据,也可为疫情进展中的其他国家提供重要参考。
作者介绍
余宏杰
教授、博士生导师
复旦大学公共卫生学院教授,博士生导师,公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室(复旦大学)主任。获国家自然基金委“杰出青年基金”资助、教育部“长江学者特聘教授”、国务院“政府专家特殊津贴”等奖项。担任Infectious Diseases of Poverty 等期刊的编委,并长期担任《柳叶刀》等20余种国际期刊的审稿人。
图1:潜伏期和代际间隔分布,A:概率密度分布;B:累积概率密度分布
图2:有效繁殖指数的动态变化,上:深圳市;中:湖南省;下:山东省,左:每天新增病例数(有武汉或湖北暴露史的病例和本地传播病例);右:Rt
研究结果表明,随着疫情的进展,COVID-19的流行病学特征发生了快速变化。中国政府所采取的迅速隔离病例、追踪病例的密切接触者、严格限制人群流动和接触、提高人群对疾病和预防的认知等防控措施,有效地切断了病毒在社区水平的传播,[6][8][9] 为阻断湖北省外的本地传播和扩散蔓延做出了重要贡献。文章同时强调,防控措施的有效性仅在措施落实到位时才适用,如果放松现有的公共卫生干预或人群行为发生重大变化,可能会导致后续传播增加。鉴于COVID-19正在全球蔓延,此研究结果不仅为中国制定防控策略提供重要科学证据,也可为疫情进展中的其他国家提供重要参考。
参考文献(上下滑动查看)
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2.National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202004/4786774c1fd84e16b29d872f95241561.shtml
3.World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report 2020. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
4. National Bureau of Statistics. China census in 2018. 2020. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2019/indexch.htm (accessed Feb 10, 2020).
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6. Litvinova M, Liu QH, Kulikov ES, Ajelli M. Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2019; 116: 13174–81.
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8. Cowling BJ, Lau EHY, Lam CLH, et al. Effects of school closures, 2008 winter influenza season, Hong Kong. Emerg Infect Dis 2008; 14: 1660–62.
9. Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the People’s Republic of China. Notice on extending the spring festival holiday of 2020. 2020. https://www.mct.gov.cn/whzx/whyw/202001/t20200127_850576. htm (accessed March 11, 2020).
10. Yu P, Zhu J, Zhang Z, Han Y, Huang L. A familial cluster of infection associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating potential person-to-person transmission during the incubation period. J Infect Dis 2020; published online Feb 18. DOI:10.1093/infdis/jiaa077.
11. Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M, et al. SARS-CoV-2 viral load in upper respiratory specimens of infected patients. N Engl J Med 2020; published online Feb 19. DOI:10.1056/NEJMc2001737. 12. Zhao S, Gao D, Zhuang Z, et al. Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): a statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020. medRχiv 2020: published online Feb 21. DOI:10.1101/2020.02.21.20026559 (preprint).
13. Tong ZD, Tang A, Li KF, et al. Potential presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhejiang Province, China, 2020. Emerg Infect Dis 2020; 26: published online May 17. DOI:10.3201/eid2605.200198.
14. Du Z, Xu X, Wu Y, Wang L, Cowling BJ, Meyers LA. The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases. medRχiv 2020; published online March 13. DOI:10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452 (preprint).
15. Tindale L, Coombe M, Stockdale JE, et al. Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19. medRiv 2020; published online March 6. DOI:10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983 (preprint).
*中文翻译仅供参考,一切内容以英文原文为准。
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