【深度】跳出传统大国关系演进的窠臼，共同塑造中美合作的未来（中英双语）

全文9800字（含英文单词），读完约需20分钟。

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编者按：北京时间3月23日凌晨，中美贸易迎来了历史性的瞬间——据人民日报报道，美国总统特朗普宣布，将对中国价值高达600亿美元的商品征收惩罚性关税！这是现代历史上美国总统对中国开出的最大一笔贸易“罚单”。而这也标志着特朗普对华贸易战正式打响！3月21日，中国美国商会在纽约主办“特朗普时期的中美关系展望”主题论坛，近200位来自美国商界、华尔街、政界与社会知名人士与会。中国驻纽约总领事章启月大使、纽约州共和党主席爱德华·考克斯（Ed Cox）、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、全球治理研究中心执行理事、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文分别做了主旨演讲，并共同就中美贸易问题进行了探讨，相关内容引起了在场的热烈反应。中文完整版刊于3月23日观察者网，英文译本刊于3月25日《Global Times》。

Editor`s Notes: On March 21, AmCham China hosted a forum on“US-China Relations Outlook Under Trump’s Administration” in New York. Zhang Qiyue, consul general of China in New York, Edward Cox, chairman of the New York Republican State Committee, and Wang Wen, Executive Director of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, the Global Governance Center and the Sino-American Cultural Exchange Centre at Renming University of China, attended and spoke at the event. On March 25, the English edition of Global Times published Wang’s speech with a full page.

共同演进：中美合作的未来

Co-evolution: Future of China-US cooperation

王文

Wang Wen

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、全球治理研究中心执行理事、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文

Executive Director of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, the Global Governance Center and the Sino-American Cultural Exchange Centre at Renming University of China

感谢邀请，让我有机会与各位分享我对中美关系的最新思考。我是今天凌晨5点抵达纽约的，计划今晚就要飞回北京。但纽约实在是太爱我了，今天竟下起一场鹅毛大雪，航班取消，正好让“两会”中极其忙碌两周的我有了休息时间，我内心也只能与天气变化而“共同演进”（co-evolution）。“共同演进”（co-evolution），这正是我今天要讲的主题《共同演进：中美合作的未来》。

Thank you for this invitation to share my latest thoughts on Sino-American relations. I flew into New York at 5am, and was due to return to Beijing at 9pm. But the Big Apple showed its love for me with a snowstorm, resulting in a cancelled flight and giving me the opportunity to relax during an extremely busy half-month of dealing with the 'Two Sessions'. I could only 'co-evolve' with the change in weather. This, then, is the theme of my speech today: "Co-evolution: The Future of Sino-American Cooperation".

Co-evolution的概念最早起源于生物学。1964年，美国生态学家埃利希（P.R. Ehrlich）和雷文（P.H. Raven）在研究植物和植食昆虫关系时提出了这一概念。他们认为，Co-evolution是指一个物种的性状作为对另一个物种性状的反映而进化。这种由不同物种相互作用引发的进化是双方共同的作用。

The concept of co-evolution has its earliest origins in biology, mooted by American ecologists P.R. Ehrlich and P.H. Raven when studying the relationship between plants and insects. They defined co-evolution to mean the evolution of traits in one species as a response to traits in another. Triggered by interactions between and among different species, this evolution is a mutual action.

后来，这个概念被用到了社会经济系统之中。经济学家Norgaard认为，即经济系统的参与主体存在相互反馈机制，一个参与者的适应性变化会通过另一个参与者的适应而改变其演化轨迹，后者的变化又会进一步制约或促进前者的变化。

Thereafter, the concept was applied to socio-economic systems. The economist Richard B. Norgaard pointed to the existence of a mutual feedback mechanism between participants in economic systems: adaptive change in one participant alters its evolutionary trajectory through the adaptation of another participant, which in turn further restricts or promotes changes in the former.

2011年5月，美国前国务卿基辛格博士出版一本名叫《论中国》（《On China》）的新书。在书中，基辛格先生提出“co-evolution”的概念。他指出，作为世界前两大经济体，美国和中国的关系不应该是零和博弈，与其追求伙伴关系，不如谋求“共同演进”的关系。美中两国都应该追求自己本国的利益，同时尽可能扩大合作，减少双方的对立争斗。换句话说，任何一方都不能要求对方完全站在自己的立场去分析处理国际事务，但是双方要尽可能的实现互补发展。这个概念一经提出，就得到中美两国许多人士的认可。

In May 2011, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger published a new work entitled "On China," in which he mentions the concept of "co-evolution." Kissinger notes that as the world's two biggest economies, relations between the US and China should not be reduced to a zero-sum game, but be cast as a quest for 'co-evolution" rather than partnership. In the process of pursuing their own interests, both the US and China should seek to maximize cooperation and reduce mutual antagonisms, to the extent that this is possible. In other words, neither side can demand that the other stand in its shoes when analyzing international affairs, but both sides should employ reasonable endeavors to achieve complementary development. This concept earned widespread recognition in both countries.

中美进入了“共同演进”的新时代

China and the US Enter a New Era of "Co-evolution"

的确，过去十年，中美的确在“共同演进”。在新时期，中美两国更应该审时度势，抓住目前两国发展的宏观特点，寻求互补发展。

It is certainly true that, over the past decade, China and the US have indeed 'evolved together." In the new period, they should assess the current situation, avail themselves of the general characteristics of their development, and seek complementary development.

第一、中美两国经济均在增长。2017中国GDP比上年增长6.9%，达到将近13万亿美元；2017年美国GDP则突破了18万亿美元。中美两国的GDP总额已超过全球40%。中国经济份额从2008年的7.3%上升约15%。而美国经济过去十年占全球经济份额一直稳定在23%-25%之间，可见，中国崛起并没有实质地影响到美国在全球经济总量中的地位。而且，中国经济总量与美国相比还存在较大的差距。

First, China and the US are both growing. China's GDP rose by 6.9 percent to nearly $13 trillion in 2017, while the US GDP exceeded $18 trillion, representing more than 40 percent of the world's total. China's share of the global economy has risen to about 15 percent from 2008 figure of 7.3 percent. The US' economic clout, on the other hand, has remained relatively steady at between 23-25 percent for the past decade. It is therefore plain to see that China's rise has not resulted in a fundamental or radical recasting of US hegemony in the global economic order, and that considerable difference persist between the two.

不过，中国也不能被小觑。中国的经济发展水平已进入中等收入国家行列。根据2018年1月《华盛顿邮报》的数据显示，中国人民实物商品消费2018年预计5.8万亿美元，2018年，中国很有可能将会赶上美国，成为全球第一消费大国。目前，中国经济增长最主要的动能来自于消费，其贡献率达到58.8%。消费成为拉动经济增长的第一动能。这是美国经济增长的重大机会。

China's development is entering the bracket of middle-income countries. Data from the Washington Post in January shows that the Chinese people are set to consume $5.8 trillion in real goods, setting the country on course to surpass the US as the world's premier consumer power this year. Currently, the prime driver of China's economic growth is consumption, which accounts for 58.8 percent. This represents a major opportunity for US economic growth.

第二，中国产业结构转型明显，与美国形成了相对互补的产业结构。2017中国第一产业增加值65468亿元，比上年增长3.9%；第二产业增加值334623亿元，增长6.1%；第三产业增加值427032亿元，增长8.0%。如图所示，中美两国的产业结构互补性较大，中美两国应加强相关领域的合作，为两国经济发展提供新的动能。在产业结构中，尤其值得提的是，中美两国占据全球独角兽企业的81%，体现了两国市场的企业活力。

Second, China's evident industrial structural transformation complements the US industrial structure. In 2017, the added value of China's primary industry was 6.5468 trillion yuan ($1.0386 trillion), up 3.9 percent on the previous year. The added value of its secondary industry was 33.4623 trillion yuan, up 6.1 percent from the previous year; the added value of its tertiary industry was 42.7032 trillion yuan, up 8 percent on the previous year. Both countries should strengthen cooperation for their own economic development. Of particular note is the fact that China and the US account for 81 percent of the world's unicorn startup companies.

在这方面，我必须要提一下，中国在电子商务、金融服务领域处于世界领先的地位。中国电子商务高速发展，已成为世界第一。在上市公司里，中国拥有像阿里巴巴和京东这两家实力雄厚的电子商务平台，起到引领作用，并且拥有全球最大的电子商务需求市场，即中国互联网用户群体庞大，截至2017年底，中国互联网人数规模达到7.72亿人，位居世界第一。

China leads the world in e-commerce and financial services as a result of rapid development. China has two powerful e-commerce platforms in Alibaba and Jingdong - which play a leading role - as well as the world's largest e-commerce demand market, with an internet population of 772 million. 

由电商平台引领，同时消费需求多样化带动了中国电子商务的快速发展。截至2017年底，中国电子商务交易额达29.16万亿元，规模居世界第一。中国的电子商务发展也将越来越成熟，从传统的B2B到品牌特卖、二手交易、跨境购物到生鲜、团购等越来越细化的电商分类。当然，政策的实施也带来需求侧的改变，如二胎政策的放开，带来母婴产品、玩具、孕期保健品等方面需求的增加。

Led by e-commerce platforms, diversification in consumer demand has driven the rapid development of e-commerce in China. By the end of 2017, the volume of e-commerce transactions in China attained a global first of 29.16 trillion yuan. E-commerce development is set to gather maturity, from traditional B2B to brand sales, second-hand transactions and cross-border shopping to fresh produce and group purchasing, among other increasingly detailed subdivisions of e-commerce. In 2016, China's digital economy attained 22.6 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 30.3 percent of GDP. The internet is set to be the new space of Sino-American cooperation.

第三，在服务行业方面，中美两国的合作空间相当大。这些年，中国金融行业纷纷与互联网技术开展了广泛且深度的合作，诞生出许多新型的金融业务模式。中国的金融机构利用金融科技充分整合利用资源，在云计算、人工智能、区块链等方面体现出重大变革。未来中国的金融行业仍将继续保持高速增长，对于目前仍处在全球领先位置的美国金融业、服务行业来说，仍是重大的合作与市场开拓的机会。

Third, in the services sector, recent years have seen China's financial institutions integrate and utilize resources, culminating in significant changes in cloud computing, artificial intelligence as well as block chains. Its financial sector will continue to grow. As for the world-leading US, the finance industry and service industry remains a major opportunity for cooperation and market development.

归结原因，这些变化源于中国的城市化。美国城市化发展较早，且非常成熟。截至2017年，美国的城市化率高达82%，中国自2011年来城市化率发展也较快速，已达58.52%。

These changes stem from China's urbanization. As of 2017, the urbanization rate in the US is as high as 82 percent, while China, progressing since 2011, attained 58.52 percent. 

由于美国的城市化程度较高，企业结构也相对完善，对企业服务的需求也早于中国。同时，以硅谷为依托，美国的技术优势明显，如IBM、微软、苹果、甲骨文等老牌企业提供技术支持，美国已经形成了以大数据、网络安全云服务为基础的成熟的服务体系。在这方面，中国还有许多值得向美国看齐的地方。

This disparity, wedded to the relative perfection of enterprise structure in the US, explains why demand for business services arose before China. At the same time, by leveraging Silicon Valley, the US enjoys an obvious technological advantage with established companies such as IBM, Microsoft, Apple and Oracle. Together, these form a mature service system based on big data and network security cloud services. In this regard, China would do well to continue looking to the US.

第四，在交通运输，中国为世界的互联互通贡献了重大的力量。近年来，中国交通运输行业呈现高速的发展。截至2017年底，中国铁路营运里程已经达到12.7万公里，其中高速铁路通车里程2.5万公里；中国公路通车总里程477万公里，其中高速公路里程13.6万公里，均居世界第一位。而作为“汽车轮子上的国家”，美国高速公路只有7.6万公里长，远低于中国。

Fourth, in transportation, China has contributed enormously to the world's connectivity with breathtaking development of its transport industry. By the end of 2017, Chinese railways had an operating mileage of 127,000 kilometers, of which 25,000 kms were high-speed rail; the total length of highways in China is 4.77 million kms, of which 136,000 kms are expressways, ranking it first in the world. America, the "nation on wheels," pales in comparison with only 76,000 kms of expressway.

中国高速公路里程的超越得益于中国基础设施建设的快速发展，中国素有“基建狂魔”的称号，中国基建技术世界领先。中国建筑公司是世界上最庞大的建设力量。中国建筑公司拥有数量庞大且富有经验的工程师、技术人员和建筑工人，这些都是别国短时间内无法拥有的。根据中央情报局世界概况的数据显示，中国的水路交通里程居世界第一位，达到11万公里，美国居于世界第五位仅有4.1万公里，不及中国的二分之一。在海上，中国也拥有多个优良的港口，如大连港、天津港等，承载着中国进出口的水路运输作业。

China's unsurpassed highway mileage benefits from rapid development of its infrastructure construction, world-leading technology and construction firms employing a wealth of qualified engineers, technical personnel and construction workers whose sheer number cannot be equaled in a short period of time. The CIA World Factbook suggests China's waterways rank first in the world with 110,000 kms, double that of the fifth-placed US with 41,000 kms. China is also possessed of ports such as Dalian and Tianjin supporting its import and export waterway transport.

我从经济总量、产业结构、服务行业、基础设施四方面入手，就是希望告诉大家，中美两国“共同演进”的必要性、重要性。

Starting from the four aspects of gross economic value - industrial structure, service industry and infrastructure - Sino-American co-evolution is both necessary and important. 

当前，进入新阶段的世界发展，处于深度改革调整期。此时，世界经济增长动能较弱，地缘政治、恐怖主义等事件频发增加了不确定性。作为世界第一、第二的经济体，美中两国实力仍然存在差距，但作为后进国家，中国利用互联网、大数据等优势，正在追赶美国。中国需要向美国学习很多，同时美国也不应将中国视为敌人，仍然可以从中国身上学到优点。

We are entering a new phase of world development marked by deep reform and adjustment. Uncertainty is aggravated by factors such as weak momentum for economic growth, geopolitics and terrorism, to name but a few.  As the world's two biggest economies, gaps do still exist between the strength of US and the China. Yet the latter, as a late-starter, is fast catching up by taking advantage of the internet and big data. China has a lot to learn from the US. At the same time, the former should not regard China as its enemy, but learn lessons therefrom.

新时期、新阶段，中美两国应按照基辛格先生提出“co-evolution”携手合作，共同演进，才能为世界营造福祉。

In the new era and new phase, both countries would do well to act in accordance with Kissinger's proposal of "co-evolution," work hand-in-hand and evolve together in order to benefit the world.

中国是一股合作、共赢与和平的力量

China is a Force for Cooperation, Win-win and Peace

不过，稍有些遗憾的是，美国媒体和一些政客对中国存在现实主义的巨大误解，仍以权力政治的零和博弈思维在解读中国。今年是中国改革开放四十周年，也是中美建交四十周年。40年的中美演进历史已经证明，中国是值得合作、实现共赢、维护和平的全球力量。继续加强两国深度合作是一条必经之路。

It is regrettable the US media and certain of its politicians persist in interpreting China as a zero-sum game and power politics. The year 2018 marks the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening-up as well as the establishment of diplomatic relations. Four decades of Sino-American evolutionary history has proven China a global force for the maintenance of peace with whom cooperation is worthwhile.

关于合作，大家都会同意，中国不是俄罗斯，中国也不是伊朗，中国更不是全球革命的力量，而是维护全球现状的力量（status quo）。哈佛大学政治系的江忆恩教授（Ian Johnston）曾统计，在1990年代开始，中国参与国际体制、国际组织、国际法、国际规则的程度就已经接近发达国家的水平。

On the issue of cooperation, everyone will be agreed that China is not Russia, Iran or a force for global revolution, but rather a protector of the status quo. Ian Johnston, professor of political studies at Harvard, estimated that China's participation in the international system, international organizations, international law and the formulation of international rules since the 1990s has been close to that of developed countries. 

随着改革开放不断地深化，中国逐步从边缘走向中心，正在成为现行国际体系的参与者、建设者、贡献者以及受益者。对于二战以来由美国领衔建立的所谓“自由国际秩序”（liberal international order），中国都有参与并支持。2017年以来，美国许多机制都在退出，如巴黎气候变化协定、联合国教科文组织，中国仍在支持。从这个角度上看，一些美国媒体认为，中国在破坏国际秩序的说法，是不公平的。

China is gradually moving from the periphery to the center, becoming a participant, builder, contributor and beneficiary of the current international system. China has participated in and supported the so-called 'liberal international order' established by the US since World War II. Since 2017, the US has withdrawn from the Paris Accords and UNESCO, which China is still supporting. The charge of undermining the international order is unfair and does not stand.

关于共赢，在这里尤其要感谢美国公司过去40年对中国的投资。美国的投资是促进中国改革开放的积极因素。但另一方面，在北京，我有许多美国公司的朋友，他们也告诉我，美国公司在中国的盈利状况是相当不错的。换句话说，赚了不少钱，获利巨大。

Regarding "win-win," we owe a particular debt of gratitude to American companies for their investment in China over the past 40 years, a positive element in promoting "reform and opening-up." On the other hand, many friends at American companies in Beijing tell me that their companies are reaping good profits.

2017年11月，特朗普总统访华期间，两国企业在两场签约仪式上共签署合作项目34个，金额达到2535亿美元，这既创造了中美经贸合作的纪录，也刷新了世界经贸合作史上的新纪录。中美作为世界上两个最大的经济体，两国企业落实相关合作的成果，将是带动区域经济和全球经济增长的“引擎”，取得的合作成果将惠及全世界。

During President Trump's state visit in November 2017, Sino-American companies signed a total of 34 cooperation projects worth $253.5 billion, setting a record not only for bilateral economic and trade cooperation but also the history of world economic and trade cooperation. As the world's two largest economies, cooperation between companies in the two countries will be the engine of regional and global economic growth, with results benefiting the whole world.

关于和平，中美在关于维护世界和平、稳定以及反恐怖主义的道路上一直保持着高度一致。近两年，全球恐怖袭击数量不断攀升，欧美国家更是层出不穷。恐怖主义已成为影响世界和平与发展的重要因素，中国作为安理会常任理事国和发展中大国，为国际反恐作出了重要的贡献。中国是联合国派出维和部队最多的国家。

As for peace, China and the US have always displayed a high degree of unity on the road to world peace, stability and the fight against terrorism. In the last two years, terrorist attacks have been rising, especially in Europe and the US. Terrorism has been harming world peace and development. As a permanent member of the Security Council and a big developing country, China contributed to international counter-terrorism, making the largest contribution to UN peacekeeping operations. 

除此之外，中国在过去35年是从未参与、发动战争的国家，中国的社会稳定在西太平洋地区营造了一个更加安全稳定的环境，据统计，无论是恐怖袭击还是传统战争，西太平洋地区发生的频率都大大低于其他地区。正如大家所知，和平是公司发展、社会进步、经济增长的前提。

China has not participated in a war for 35 years and its social stability has fostered the creation of a more secure environment in the Western Pacific, where the risk of either terrorist attacks or war is lower than other regions. Peace is a necessary precondition for corporate development, social progress and economic growth.

美国需要知道，中国正在做什么

The US Needs to Know What China is Up To

不过，有时我阅读美国报纸和智库报告，发现他们总是从消极面来看待中国，比如，中国正在破坏全球秩序，中国正在关上大门等等，这些说法肯定是误解中国的发展现状。那么，中国正在做什么呢？

However, I often come across American newspaper articles and think-tank reports that cast China in a negative light, accusing it of various "crimes" such as undermining the global order and closing its doors. This is surely a misconception. What, then, is China up to?

第一，中国正在经济转型，致力成为一个民主文明和谐富强美丽的国家。

First, China is undergoing economic transformation to become a democratic, civilized, harmonious, prosperous and beautiful country. 

中国目前推进供给侧结构改革，正在从高速增长转向高质量增长。精准扶贫、生态保护与防范风险，正在成为中国最重要的三大攻坚战。与此同时，中国在推进工业化和城市化，居民可支配收入也逐年攀升，形成拉动内需的“双引擎”。

At present, China is promoting supply-side structural reform and changing from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. Targeted poverty alleviation, ecological protection and risk prevention are China's three most important battles. At the same time, China is promoting industrialization and urbanization, with year-on-year rises in disposable income forming the "double engine" that drives domestic demand.

第二，中国正在市场开放，为外国资本带来重大的新机遇。

Second, China's markets are opening up, with policies launched over the past five years offering major new opportunities to foreign capital.

过去五年，中国推出了一系列推进资本市场开放的政策。两天前，中国刚结束“两会”，新一届中国领导班子组建，可以预见，今年中国市场开放的步伐还将扩大，进一步开放中国金融市场，这对美国资产管理公司是一大利好。目前全球前10的资产管理公司中，已在中国注册的有8家。除了拓宽了资管市场以外，债券以及股票市场的开放，也增强了国际金融贸易效率，为海外投资者提供了极大的便利。

In the just-concluded "Two Sessions", China has formed a new leadership core. It can therefore be predicted that market access will expand further. This is a great news for US asset management firms. Currently, eight of the world's top 10 asset management companies are registered in China. Apart from broadening the capital management market, opening up the bond and stock markets has also enhanced the efficiency of international financial trade, providing considerable convenience to overseas investors. 

除此之外，中国还会全面放开一般制造业，扩大电信、医疗、教育、养老、新能源汽车等领域开放；简化外资企业设立程序，实施境外投资者境内利润再投资递延纳税；全面复制推广自贸区经验，探索建设自由贸易港。随着上述改革措施逐步推进落实，对美国而言是难得的商业机遇。

In addition, China will full liberalize the general manufacturing sector, expand the opening-up of telecommunications, medical care, education, old-age care, new energy vehicles and other fields; simplify procedures for the establishment of foreign-funded enterprises; implement tax deferral on domestic profits realized by foreign investors, in addition to replicating and popularizing FTZs and exploring the construction of Free-Trade Ports (FTPs). With the implementation of these reforms, there is a rare business opportunity for the US.

第三，中国倡议“一带一路”，为美国及世界其他国家提升公共产品。

Third, China's "Belt and Road Initiative" promotes public goods for the rest of the world. 

“一带一路”不是“马歇尔计划”，不会像美国当年那样用美国模式及标准塑造受援国的经济政治体制。而不同的是，“一带一路”倡议并不以改变第三国，而是以一种包容、共赢、协调的态度去推进经济协作。直到2018年初，已有80多个国家与国际组织与中国签署了相关“一带一路”合作协议。我所在的人大重阳还专门推出《美国对接“一带一路”》研究报告，为美国参与“一带一路”提供指导。事实上，我相信，美国最终还是会与中国在“一带一路”上进行重大的合作，因为这符合美国的利益，也将实现共赢局面，促进更好的合作发展。

In contrast to the Marshall Plan, it will not seek to dictate the economic and political systems of recipient countries. Rather, it aims the promotion of economic cooperation in a manner that is inclusive, win-win and coordinated. By the beginning of 2018, more than 80 countries and international organizations had signed relevant cooperation agreements with China. My institution, RDCY, published a research report entitled "Case Studies and Practical Solutions for the US to Connect to the Belt and Road Initiative," in order to guide its participation. I believe that the US will eventually come on-board and cooperate with China in this respect, since it is not only in the US' own interest but will also achieve win-win, enhance cooperation and stimulate development.

最终，中国是为了实现人类命运共同体。这是中国作为崛起大国的理想。

Lastly, China seeks the creation of a community of shared future for mankind, in accordance with its rise as a great power. 

中国是一个拥有近5000年文明的大国，我们的祖先就教导“穷则独善其身，达则兼济天下”，人类命运共同体就是一个富起来、强起来的中国对世界的贡献与责任。人类命运共同体蕴含的“合作”“共赢”“普惠”思想，为向世界贡献所提出的中国方案和中国智慧，其内涵和时代价值和联合国共同安全的和平理念高度契合。

China is a large country with 5,000 years of civilization, and our forefathers have taught us that "if you are poor, you will be alone. If you are rich, you will benefit the entire world." The concepts of cooperation, win-win and universal benefits contained within China's proposal are highly compatible with the UN's concept of peace and common security. 

美国应清楚地认识到，冲突是可以避免的，中美合作的加强是实现这一思想的关键举措，推动人类命运共同体能够进一步成为地区乃至全世界的广泛共识。

The US should realize that conflicts can be avoided, and that strengthening Sino-American cooperation is a key measure to realizing this goal. Moreover, the community of shared future for mankind can be further developed into a broad consensus in the region and world.

中美不要贸易战

China and the US Must Avoid a Trade War

我知道，近年来，美国对华战略有一场政策辩论，辩论焦点在于评估过去40年美国对华“接触”战略是否失败。中国全方位的崛起，引发了美国各界的普遍焦虑和担忧。部分美国精英认为，40年的对华“接触”已经失败，中国并没有以符合美国意愿的方式融入西方主导了一个世纪之久的国际体系，甚至有可能变成现有秩序的颠覆性力量。这种看法是错误的。

I know how to understand the future of Sino-American relations. In recent years, there has been a policy debate in the US over whether its strategy of contact to China over the past 40 years has failed. This has been sparked in part by China's comprehensive rise, much to the anxiety of the US. The latter's elites believe that the policy has not yielded fruit, in the sense that China has not integrated into the West-dominated international system in a manner consistent with the wishes of the US. Further, they fear that China may even become a subversive force. Nothing could be further from the truth.

但我们回过头来思考两国从20世纪70年代末以来的历届领导人的讲话会发现，无论国际风云如何变幻，中美历届领导人都致力于双边关系友好。历史已经证明，中美两国之间的友好合作关系对世界和平、稳定、繁荣有着举足轻重的影响。2017年11月9日，习近平主席在欢迎美国总统特朗普访华时指出，“中美应该成为伙伴而不是对手，两国合作可以办成许多有利于两国和世界的大事。我坚信，中美关系面临的挑战是有限的，发展的潜力是无限的。”

Yet, a glance at the words of both countries' leaders since the end of the 1970s illustrates that regardless of changes in the international landscape, successive leaders have remained committed to bilateral relations and friendship. History has shown that the friendly and cooperative relations between China and the US have had a decisive impact on world peace, stability and prosperity. In welcoming US President Donald Trump on November 9th 2017, President Xi Jinping noted that China and the US should be partners instead of adversaries. Cooperation between the two countries holds huge significance for both countries and the world. Challenges facing Sino-US relations are limited, while the potential for development knows no bounds.

美国前副国务卿科特·坎贝尔（Kurt Campbell）上个月在《外交事务》（Foreign Affairs）杂志撰文有一段话，我比较赞同，“无论胡萝卜还是大棒，都无法改变中国，中国坚定走在自己认准的道路上，在很多方面背离了美国的预期”。

I am rather inclined to agree with the following statement by former deputy US secretary of state Kurt Campbell in last month's issue of Foreign Affairs, "Neither the carrot nor the stick can change China, which has embarked on its own path with resolve, deviating from American expectations in many ways."

理解中美关系的历史和未来，需要超越西方长期以来对大国兴衰权力更替理论的根深蒂固的思维局限。美国需要明白，中国不会变成第二个美国，中国不会复制美国乃至整个西方世界近代以来的崛起之路。中国的改革致力于国强民富、民族复兴，而一个强大的中国是维护世界稳定繁荣的重要建设性力量。在过去40年中国改革开放的历程中，美国得益甚多；未来继续支持中国进一步深化改革，符合美国利益，有利于两国合作共赢。

To understand the history and future of Sino-US relations, we need to transcend the limits the Western theory of replacement of power by power. The US needs to understand that China will not become a second US, nor will it seek to replicate the rise of America, indeed that of the whole western world. China's reform has devoted itself to strengthening the country, enriching the people and rejuvenating the nation. A strong China is an important and constructive force for maintaining global stability and prosperity. During China's 40-year course of reform and opening-up, the US has benefited greatly. It is therefore in the latter's interest to continue to support China's further reform, and benefit from win-win cooperation between the two countries.

历史经验已经无数次证明，中美两国合则两利，斗则两伤。作为当今世界排名第一、二为的经济体，两国之间若像一些媒体说的，爆发贸易战，毫无疑问将不可避免达到双输结局。

History has on many occasions enunciated that China and the US will benefit from harmonious relations, while neither will win in the event of conflict. As the world's two largest economies, if a trade war were to break out between the two countries as predicted by some media, the inevitable outcome will be a lose-lose situation.

首先，中美之间经贸关系高度依存。

First, China and the US are hugely dependent on each other for economics and trade. 

从2013年到2017年，货物贸易中国对美出口额从4404.3亿美元增长到5056.0亿美元，增幅14.8%；美国对华出口额从1217.5亿美元增长到1303.7亿美元，涨幅7.1%。2017年，美国是中国第一大出口市场，而中国也是美国第一大进口市场。

From 2013 to 2017, Chinese exports to the US increased from $440.43 billion to $505.6 billion, up 14.8 percent. US exports to China increased from $121.75 billion to $130.37 billion, up 7.1 percent in 2017. The US is China's largest export market, while China is the US' biggest import market.

中美贸易逆差高企，一直是两国经贸关系中的敏感议题。然而我们必须认识到，中美两国之间的贸易逆差一定程度上被美方过分夸大了。事实上，近十多年来，中美货物贸易逆差增幅整体上呈减小趋势，从2005年的24.5%下降到了2017年的8.1%。另外，从2006到2017年，美国对华货物贸易出口额增长率为147%，远远高于对世界其他地区44%的出口增长；服务贸易2006-2016十年间对华出口额上涨421%，更是远超过对世界其他地区76%的涨幅。

The astronomical trade deficit between China and the US has always been a sensitive issue in economics and trade. What we must realize is that, to a certain extent, this has been exaggerated by the US. In fact, over the past decade or so, overall increase in the Sino-US trade deficit has been revised down from 24.5 percent in 2005 to 8.1 percent in 2017. In addition, from 2006-2017, US goods exports to China grew by 147 percent, far exceeding the 44 percent increase in exports to the rest of the world；Exports of service trade to China rose 421 percent in the decade 2006-2016, again eclipsing the 76 percent increase to the rest of the world. 

中美之间的贸易逆差，是经济全球化背景下，国际产业分工和资源优化配置的必然结果。平衡双边贸易关系，需要双方共同努力，中国需要进一步开放市场，美方也应放宽对华高技术出口限制，一味指责对方毫无益处。

The trade deficit is the inevitable result of the international industrial division of labor and the optimal allocation of resources against the backdrop of economic globalization. Balancing bilateral trade relations requires the joint efforts of both sides: China needs to further open its market, and the US should accordingly relax restrictions on high-tech exports. Blind accusations will benefit no-one.

其次，中美一旦爆发贸易战，将对两国产业产生极大消极影响。

Second, once a trade war breaks out between China and the US, the industries of both countries will be negatively impacted. 

2017年美国对华出口产品中，运输设备、机电产品、植物产品、化工产品、矿产品等排前五位，占对华出口总额的60%以上，贸易战将对以这些产品出口为经济支柱的州和地区造成重大打击。

In 2017, transport equipment, mechanical and electrical products, plant products, chemical and mineral products were among the top five US exports to China, accounting for more than 60 percent of total exports. A trade war will no doubt hit hard states and regions whose exports are dominated by these products.

第三，贸易战的潜在影响，还有可能危及就业、物价等民生领域，对社会造成消极影响。

Third, the trade war's potential impact may also endanger employment, prices and other areas of people's livelihoods, negatively impacting on society. 

美国从中国进口大量质优价廉的商品，不仅有助于其维持较低的通胀率，还提高了美民众特别是中低收入群体的实际购买力。美中贸易委员会研究显示，美国对华贸易平均为每个家庭每年节省850美元。美对华出口还为美国创造了大量就业岗位。中国商务部的报告指出，2015年美对华出口实际支撑了美国内180万个新增就业岗位，加上中美双向投资，共计支撑了美国内约260万个就业岗位。

The large amount of quality goods imported at modest prices from China not only helps to keep inflation low, but also increases the real purchasing power of the American people, especially the middle and low income groups. A study by the US-China Trade Commission shows that US trade with China results in an average saving of $850 per household per year, with US exports responsible for creating a large number of jobs. A report from China's Ministry of Commerce notes that US exports to China actually supported 1.8 million new jobs in the US for 2015. Combined with two-way investment from China and the United States, supported some 2.6 million jobs.

2018年3月8日，十三届全国人大一次会议召开记者会，外交部部长王毅就“特朗普政府需要决定是否对进口自中国的太阳能板、钢材和铝材施以处罚”一事作出回应，他表示，中美之间并不存在攻击性竞争关系，历史的经验教训证明，打贸易战从来都不是解决问题的正确途径。尤其在全球化的今天，选择贸易战更是抓错了药方，结果只会损人害己，中方必将做出正当和必要的反应。

On March 8th 2018, at a press conference at the first session of the 13th National People's Congress, Foreign Minister Wang Yi responded to "the need for the Trump administration to decide whether to impose penalty tariffs on imports of solar panels, as well as steel and aluminum products from China." He pointed to the absence of antagonistic or competitive relations between China and the US, further underlining that history has proven a trade war to never be the right way to solve a problem. This observation is especially true in today's globalized world, where such a parochial choice will only harm others. China will respond proportionately and in kind.

在中美的经贸合作过程中，确实一直存在着贸易顺差的现象。然而，中国已经逐渐从出口导向型逐渐转变成内需拉动型，2017年中国整体贸易顺差收窄17%，这不仅减缓了美国贸易逆差的压力，也为外国资本带来了极大的机遇。此外，2018年11月，中国将首次举办国际进口博览会，搭建国际贸易的开放型合作平台，有利于促进中美双边贸易平衡发展。

In the course of Sino-American economic and trade cooperation, a trade surplus has always existed.  However, China has gradually shifted from an export-oriented type to one driven more by domestic demand. The overall trade surplus narrowed by 17 percent in 2017, which not only alleviated pressure on the US' trade deficit, but also brought great opportunities for foreign capital. Moreover, China hold an international import fair in November 2018 to set up an new open platform for cooperation in international trade, which is conducive to promoting balanced development of bilateral trade between China and the US.

美国应抓住机遇投资中国

The US Should Seize the Opportunity and Invest in China

当前，中国经济保持高速发展的同时向高质量增长转型，经济结构不断优化，数字经济、人工智能等科技创新为经济发展带来新动能。对美国来说，中国经济的持续增长和优化转型意味着更广阔的投资市场和盈利空间。

At present, the impressive growth of China's economy is accompanied by structural transformations to bring about high-quality growth. Its economic structure is constantly optimizing, and technological innovations such as the digital economy, AI and other scientific and technological innovations have injected new momentum to economic development. For the US, China's sustained economic growth and optimal transformation means a broader investment market and bigger profit margin.

正如上文所说，中国将成为全球消费大国。中国中高收入人群（中产阶级）规模不断扩大，2016年占总人口比例超过20%，2021年预计超过40%，达到3亿人。未来中国庞大的国内消费市场能够为美国提供更多的商业机会，带动美国经济发展。

As mentioned above, China will become a global consumer power. Its middle-and high-income group (i.e. the middle class) is expanding, accounting for more than 20 percent of the total population in 2016. This figure is expected to exceed 40 percent in 2021, or 300 million people. In the future, China's huge domestic consumer market will be able to provide more business opportunities for and drive the economic development of the US.

在创新创业方面，中国已经在人工智能和电子商务平台等领域走在世界前列。2016年，中国数字经济规模达到22.6万亿元，占当年GDP比重超过30.3%。随着中国互联网产业不断飞速发展，“互联网+”带动移动支付、共享经济等一系列新兴产业发展，未来互联网将成为中美合作的新空间。

In terms of innovation and entrepreneurship, China has led the world in artificial intelligence and e-commerce platforms. In 2016, China's digital economy attained 22.6 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 30.3 percent of GDP. Driving this is the rapid development of China's internet industry, with the 'Internet+' model spurring on mobile payment and a series of shared economic development in emerging industries. The Internet is set to be the new space of Sino-American cooperation.

回顾建交40年的历史，中美双边关系虽历经风雨，但始终向前。中美在各领域中相互依赖程度都在不断加深，双边经贸关系更是早已形成“你中有我、我中有你”的格局。

Looking back on four decades of diplomatic ties, bilateral relations between China and the US have been through thick and thin, always managing to weather adversity. The degree of interdependence between the two countries has deepened in various fields, with bilateral economic and trade relations forming a pattern of interwoven and interdependent.

中美新型大国关系的建立，需要双方跳出传统大国关系演进的窠臼，避免陷入“自我实现的预言”式的思维陷阱，减少战略误判，直面分歧和挑战，继续发挥经贸关系在双边关系中的压舱石作用，用面向21世纪的新型商业伙伴创造新型文明，让中美两国“共同演进”、友好合作，为构建人类命运共同体发挥“共赢”力量。

The establishment of a new type of great-power relations requires both sides to overcome the weight of tradition, avoid the trap of "self-fulfilling prophecies," reduce or minimize strategic misjudgment, and confront squarely differences and challenges. China and the US should also continue to give play to the anchoring role of economy and trade in bilateral relations, create new civilizations with new business partners in the 21st-century, evolve together and cooperate amicably in order to realize a win-win situation that results in the construction of a community of common destiny for mankind.

再次感谢主办方为我提供如此好的机会。谢谢。

Once again, thank you to the organizers for affording me this invaluable opportunity. 

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中国人民大学全球治理研究中心(Global Governance Research Center，RUC)成立于2017年3月9日，是北京巨丰金控科技有限公司董事长马琳女士向中国人民大学捐赠并由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）负责运营管理的教育基金项目。中国人民大学全球治理研究中心由原外交部副部长、人大重阳高级研究员何亚非领衔，前中国银行副行长、国际商会执行董事、人大重阳高级研究员张燕玲担任学术委员会主任，旨在构建高层次、高水准的全球治理思想交流平台，并向社会发布高质量的全球治理研究报告，努力践行咨政、启民、伐谋、孕才的智库使命。

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