【独家】如何看近期频发的中美贸易摩擦？四位老外齐发声（中英双语）

全文中文约5400字，英文约3400词，读完约需10分钟。

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本文四位作者中，达尼洛·图尔克（Danilo Türk）系斯洛文尼亚前总统、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员，罗思义（John Ross）系英国伦敦前经济与商业政策署署长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员，威廉·琼斯(William Jones)系《全球策略信息》（EIR）华盛顿分社总编、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员，西夏姆·宰迈提（Hisham El-Zimaity）系前埃及外交部部长助理、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员。本文中文删减版刊于4月20日《参考消息》，本公众号特独家提供这四位专家的英文原稿，中英文双语分享，以飨读者。

编者按：自3月23日美国总统特朗普宣布对中国多种商品征收惩罚性关税以来，中美贸易摩擦已历时近一月。4月16日美方宣布对中兴通讯的制裁让摩擦更有针对性，虽然两天后美国向WTO提交文件，同意就301征税措施与中国进行磋商，实为缓和之举。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院来自英国、美国、斯洛文尼亚和埃及的四位外籍专家一同在《参考消息》发表整版文章，提出贸易战的负面影响将波及世界，世界贸易应抓住中国机遇，而造福美国工人真正的密钥在贸易战之外等观点。

世界图书日

 1. 世界贸易应抓住中国机遇

达尼洛·图尔克（Danilo Türk）

The world is focusing again on the question of the future of the world trade. The debate was triggered by the protectionist measures of the US and by the President Trump’s assertion that trade wars are “good and easy to win.” The international reaction was unison in rejecting this bizarre idea. Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, a man known for his cautious public statements, pointed out that the truth is quite the opposite. “Trade wars are bad and easy to lose”.

由于美国实行贸易保护措施以及特朗普总统声称“贸易战是好事，我们很容易打赢”，世界再次将焦点聚集到全球贸易的问题上来。然而国际社会均不认同美方荒诞观点，欧洲理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克（Donald Tusk）表示事实和美方看法恰恰相反,“贸易战很糟糕，而且容易失败”。

The current situation requires reflection in two directions. The first is general and relates to the global development. The second is particular and requires an understanding of China, a decisive player in the world trade.

当今国际形势需要如下两方面的考虑：第一，从宏观大局来看全球的发展；第二，因中国在全球贸易中的决定性作用，应该重视中国。

At the global level, the past fifteen years have brought important improvements. The UN’s Millennium Development Goals (2000 - 2015) have been implemented to a level higher than expected. Past years have seen the fastest reduction of extreme poverty in human history: The number of people living below the international poverty line of 1.25 US $ a day was reduced by half a billion between 2000 and 2013. Substantial improvement was reported also in such areas as reduction of child mortality and death of malaria. The new, UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (2015 – 2030) committed governments around the world to ending extreme poverty everywhere by 2030. 

就全球层面而言，过去十五年取得了伟大成就。联合国千年发展目标（2000-2015）的实施结果远超预期。近年来的极端贫困人口数量下降速度创人类历史新高：从2000年至2013年，国际贫困线（每天收入为1.25美元）以下的人口减少了5亿之多。同时，在减少儿童死亡率和疟疾死亡等领域也取得了实质性的进展。最新的联合国可持续发展目标（2015-2030）致力于世界各国政府在2030年底前彻底消灭极端贫困。

In other words, the international community is at the threshold of a major, historic breakthrough. If allowed to focus on the toughest places, the 31 “fragile states” that are currently lagging behind, and, at the same time, to develop global economic cooperation along the normal trajectory for all countries, the world can achieve a new level of prosperity for all. This would be another major achievement and an important enabling factor for addressing such major challenges as global warming.

换言之，国际社会正处在一个重大的历史性突破的临界点。一方面，应更多地把重点放在最困难的地方，即目前相对落后的31个“脆弱国家”。另一方面，各国为重回正常发展轨道，应推动全球经济合作，以期达到世界繁荣新高度。若均能实现，这将又是一重大成就，同时也是应对全球变暖等重大挑战的有利因素。

However, all this can be put in jeopardy by a trade war that would produce losers on all sides. The worst losers would be, as usual in times of global regressions, the least developed parts of the world and the global poor. But the more prosperous part of the world such as the EU would also lose. The EU has barely ended a period of recession and its economy has started to grow again. It needs further growth to consolidate its economic and political space and offer the future to its youth. For such a development Europe needs normal trade relations with the world, and in particular with its largest economies, the US and China. 

但是，所有这些都会因“贸易战”而深陷困境，且只会有输家。在全球经济衰退时期，最大的输家将是世界上最不发达地区和贫困人口。同时，发达地区如欧洲也将受到一定程度的损害。欧盟刚刚结束了一段衰退期，经济逐渐复苏，需要进一步的发展来巩固其经济和政治成果，为年轻人的未来提供更多机会。只有和各国尤其是中美这样的大型经济体维持正常的国际贸易关系，欧洲才有可能实现必要的发展。

The achievements of China offer opportunities for the world that must not be wasted. In the past decades China has undergone important transformations. A single statistical indicator tells a story of global importance: The gross exports from China to all countries equaled 35 per cent of China’s GDP in 2006 and only 18 per cent last year. China is clearly moving from an export dependent economy to an economy that is much more reliant on the consumer demand of its vast population. This is good news for China - and for the world. 

中国的发展为世界提供机会。在过去的几十年中，中国经历了重大转变。一个简单的统计指标就能说明其对全球的重要性。2006年中国出口总额占GDP的35% ，而2017年仅占18%。很显然，中国出口依赖度在逐步下降，正转型为更加依靠内需的经济体，这对于中国和世界而言都是好消息。

While the full adjustment to a new type of sophisticated consumer economy will take several more years, it can also be accelerated by good policies. The fact that China has been able to pursue its path of reforms for the past forty years without interruptions created a level of credibility and confidence that justifies an optimistic outlook today. 

虽然还需要几年的时间来全面调整这种新型的消费型经济，但有效的政策可以加快这一过程。事实上，在过去四十年中，中国在其改革道路上不断追求，这足以让人们对未来前景抱有信心。

Two policy orientations of China are of special importance. The first is the Belt and Road Initiative that offers expanded development cooperation and an active engagement of China as an investor in large areas of Asia, reaching to Europe and Africa. The other is the policy of openness most recently explained by President Xi Jinping at the Boao Forum earlier this week. 

中国的两个政策取向尤为重要。一个是“一带一路”倡议，不仅能够加强各国合作、促进共同发展，而且中国通过该政策积极向亚洲、欧洲和非洲地区投资。另一个是开放政策，前几天由习近平总书记在博鳌亚洲论坛再次强调。

President Xi’s speech of 10 April was a masterful act of statesmanship and an impressive offer for growth of global trade and prosperity. At the time when talk about a possible trade war still occupies much space in the media, President Xi turned the tables and offered a radical alternative based on openness, cooperation, win-win outcomes and a practical way of building our “common future”.  Not only did he announce significant lowering of import tariffs, a fundamental instrument of promoting international trade, he also offered a number of incentives in areas such as protection of intellectual property and accession to the WTO’s code on public procurement. On top of this he also promised specific steps to improve the investment environment for foreign investors and to generally broaden market access. 

习主席4月10日在博鳌论坛的讲话，充分展现了一位政治家的治国风范，并且表明中国将为促进国际贸易的繁荣和增长提供更多机会。目前，媒体仍在讨论贸易战是否会发生，而习主席却选择了一个截然不同的方案，基于开放、合作、共赢和建设世界“共同未来”的切实可行的方法。他不仅提出大幅降低进口关税来促进国际贸易，而且还在保护知识产权和加入世贸组织《政府采购协定》等领域提出了一些促进措施。除此之外，他还承诺采取具体方法创造更有吸引力的投资环境，并大幅度放宽市场准入。

Openness brings progress and creates opportunities that China’s partners around the world must not miss. Policy makers in the West in particular will be well advised to take these opportunities seriously.  

中国在全球的合作伙伴都不应该错过开放所带来的进步和机会。西方的决策者尤其应当牢牢抓住这些机遇。

（翻译：杨清清、李雨晗）

2. 美贸易战负面影响将波及世界

罗思义（John Ross）

The US threat to impose unilateral tariffs on China, outside the framework of the WTO, following its unilateral imposition of steel and aluminium tariffs on several countries, damages the world economy in the short term and strategically threatens the economic well-being of numerous other countries. IMF managing director Christine Lagarde therefore correctly expressed her duty towards the international economic community when she recently stated: ‘Let us redouble our efforts to reduce trade barriers and resolve disagreements without using exceptional measures.’ It is, therefore, crucial to understand that unilateral tariff imposition is not merely against the interests of any one country but against the interests of all states. 

继对数个国家钢铁和铝制品单方面加征关税后，美国威胁要在世界贸易组织（WTO）框架之外对中国商品单方面加征关税，这不仅将在短期内损害世界经济，而且将从战略上威胁其他许多国家的经济福祉。国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德近日对此阐述了她的看法：“让我们再次加倍努力来削减贸易壁垒，并在不采取异常措施的情况下解决分歧。”单方面加征关税不仅违背被加征关税国家的利益，而且也违背所有国家的利益。因此，明白这一点至关重要。

The most immediate threat is of disruption to a global economy which is enjoying its most sustained synchronised recovery since the international financial crisis.  

最直接的威胁是，这将破坏国际金融危机以来正处于同步复苏中的全球经济。

As Madame Lagarde put it: ‘The world is currently experiencing a strong upswing that holds the promise of higher incomes and living standards. Delivering on this promise is critical… But we can see darker clouds looming... the momentum expected for 2018 and 2019 will eventually slow.’ To avoid ‘darker clouds’: ‘First – governments need to steer clear of protectionism in all its forms.’ 

正如拉加德女士指出：“眼下，全球经济正强劲回升，承载着人们提高收入和生活水平的希望。实现这一希望对于亚洲乃至全世界而言都至关重要……但是，我们可以看到，乌云已隐隐出现。实际上，2018年和2019年的预期发展势头最终将会放缓。政策制定者们应怎么办？首先，各国政府必须远离任何形式的保护主义。”

The threat posed by unilateral tariffs was reflected on US financial markets themselves. Immediately the US administration announced tariffs against China, on the morning of 4 April US share markets fell by 1.6% - losing over $400 billion.  To calm this US Commerce Secretary Ross, and Director of the National Economic Council Kudlow, had to appear on the media announcing there would be no ‘trade war’ with China but negotiation – which led to share market recovery. As CNBC put it: ‘Larry Kudlow saved the stock market yesterday.’ 

单方面加征关税所带来的威胁在美国金融市场得到体现。美国政府宣布对华500亿美元商品加征关税后，4月4日早晨美国股市下跌1.6%——华尔街投资者损失4000多亿美元。为稳定市场，美国商务部长罗斯（Wilbur Ross）与白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛（Larry Kudlow）相继出面安抚人心，后者对媒体称，惩罚关税不会引发中美贸易战，最终会谈判收场。库德洛发表讲话后，美国股市应声上涨。正如美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）指出：“库德洛拯救了美国股市。”

The same fall was repeated when President Trump ordered the drawing up of expanded plans for tariffs on China’s exports. On 6 April US share markets fell by 2.2% -  losing over $500 billon. 

在特朗普宣布将考虑对从中国进口的额外1000亿美元商品加征关税后，4月6日美国股市下跌2.2%——华尔街投资者损失5000多亿美元。

Therefore, merely the threat of US unilateral tariffs leads to hundreds of billions of dollar losses for investors - even before damaging tariffs are imposed.

也即是说，美国单方面对华产品加征关税的威胁导致华尔街投资者损失数千亿美元，而这仅仅是在加征关税付诸实施之前。

It is an error to believe the negative consequences of US tariffs would only affect the US and China.  The modern globalised economy’s efficiency is based on international value chains spanning many countries, while to support large scale efficient production markets must be international.  An example is the threat to Germany from proposed US actions. The Financial Times noted: 

认为美国对华产品加征关税的负面影响仅仅波及中美两国的想法，是错误的。现代全球化经济价值链，即生产过程横跨多个国家的事实，意味着要实现大规模且高效的生产，拓展海外市场就必不可少。美国单方面对华产品加征关税的行动连带德国遭殃，就是一个例子。正如《金融时报》指出：

‘German companies fear they could suffer considerable collateral damage … because machines and cars made by their subsidiaries in China and exported to the US could end up being hit just as hard as all-Chinese products.’

 “德国企业担心美国总统特朗普对华产品加征关税，也会导致他们的产品如所有中国产品一样遭受连带打击，因为他们的机器和汽车是由其在华子公司生产，然后出口到美国。”

The head of the foreign trade department of the German Machinery Association stressed he was receiving anxious calls from companies worried about the tariff’s impact. For example: ‘One particularly vulnerable sector is cars, a pillar of the German economy. 

德国机械设备制造业联合会（VDMA）对外贸易部负责人乌尔里克阿克曼Ulrich Ackermann表示，他在过去一周不停地接到来自企业的电话，他们都对美国对华关税未来可能带来的影响忧心忡忡。一个特别脆弱的行业是德国经济的支柱产业——汽车。

For example, BMW and Mercedes parent Daimler would be highly exposed… Martin Wansleben, managing director of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry… said an additional concern among German companies is that Chinese demand for German-made parts, machines and other equipment could fall if Chinese companies are no longer allowed to export to the US market.’

比如，宝马和奔驰母公司戴姆勒将因中国对美国进口汽车加征关税遭受重大损失……德国工商总会董事总经理Martin Wansleben称，德国企业关心的另一个问题是，如果中国企业不再被允许出口产品到美国市场，那么中国对德国制造的零件、机器和其他设备的需求将会下降。”

Even greater that the immediate damage to the world economy is the strategic threat. By definition international trade is multi-national. It must, therefore, have mutually agreed rules. If any one country is allowed to set the rules, or to act outside a mutually agreed framework, it would inevitably manipulate the situation to its own advantage - damaging other countries. Any US action outside the WTO therefore strategically threatens the multilateral trade framework on which every economy’s prosperity depends.

单方面加征关税对世界经济的更大危害在于战略威胁。顾名思义，国际贸易就是在国际间进行的贸易活动。因此，它必须有共同商定规则。如果允许任何一个国家包办制定规则，或者在共同商定的框架之外采取行动，其将不可避免地凭借自身的优势来操纵局势，从而损害其他国家利益。因此，从战略上来讲，美国在WTO框架之外采取的任何行动，威胁着每个国家繁荣发展所依赖的多边贸易框架。

This is even more serious when the US administration has a wrong analysis of the causes of its trade deficit. Again, as Christine Lagarde put it on trade deficits: ‘imbalance is driven by the fact that a country spends above its income.’ The US trade deficit is ‘made in the USA’, by attempts to spend more than US income, not in other countries. While the US tariffs will damage the global economy, they will not reduce the US trade deficit – as numerous Western commentators have pointed out.

如果美国政府固执己见地将其贸易逆差归咎于其他国家，形势可能会变得更为严重。正如拉加德就贸易逆差指出：“失衡状况出现的原因是一国的支出超过了其收入。“美国的贸易逆差是美国制造的问题，即美国支出超过其收入造成的，跟其他国家无关。正如许多西方评论员所指出的，尽管美国加征关税将损害全球经济，但不会减少美国贸易逆差。

Slow growth imposed on other countries by US actions would also inevitably lead to increased social and political tensions within them.

美国对其他国家单方面加征关税的行动将导致这些国家经济增长放缓，进而不可避免地令这些国家社会与政治动荡加剧。

In his speech to this year’s Boao Forum Xi Jinping repeated an unequivocal defence of globalisation: ‘Over the last four decades, the Chinese people have embraced the world with open arms and actively contributed our share to the world.’ He added globalisation was not only in China’s interest but that of all countries: ‘any country or nation… must follow the logic of history… in their pursuit of progress and development.’ Events since the US threat of unilateral tariffs strongly confirm that judgement.

中国国家主席习近平在今年的博鳌亚洲论坛的演讲中重申中国对全球化的坚定支持，他指出：“40年来，中国人民始终敞开胸襟、拥抱世界，积极作出了中国贡献。”他还补充道，全球化不仅符合中国的利益，也符合所有国家的利益：“一个国家、一个民族要振兴，就必须在历史前进的逻辑中前进、在时代发展的潮流中发展。”美国威胁要对中国产品单方面加征关税以来的事件进展，充分印证了习近平的讲话。

3. 造福美国工人密钥在贸易战之外

威廉·琼斯(William Jones)

The world had become somewhat unnerved by the rhetoric coming out of the Trump Administration threatening to impose draconian tariffs on China, the biggest trading partner of the United States. The tremendous fluctuations in the world’s stock markets over the last few days is a clear sign of this concern. While the rhetoric has cooled down in the last few days since President Xi Jinping’s speech at the Boao Forum, where he addressed most of the issues that President Trump had brought up as a pretext for the tariff threat, the unease remains.

特朗普政府威胁要对中国这个美国最大的贸易伙伴施加更严厉的关税措施让全世界变得有些不安。过去几天，全球股市大幅震荡更是这种担忧的明显征兆。习近平主席在2018年博鳌亚洲论坛上发表演讲，谈到了特朗普总统提出的作为关税威胁借口的大部分问题，随后几天舆论逐渐冷却下来，但这种不安依然存在。

Of course, an escalation of the trade disputes with the mutual imposition of tariffs between these two giants could well serve to send the markets, and the world economy, tumbling. Finding a way out of this dilemma is therefore crucial for maintaining growth in the world economy.

当然，贸易纠纷的升级以及这中美两大巨头之间相互征收关税的做法，可能会使市场和世界经济发生翻天覆地的变化。寻找摆脱这种困境的方法对维持世界经济增长至关重要。

Donald Trump was elected President largely because he promised the voters that he would work to restore the health of the U.S. economy. He focused on the need to deal with what he considered unfair trade agreements and to rebuild the ailing infrastructure of the United States. Unfortunatley, his rhetoric often degenerated into mere China-bashing.

唐纳德·特朗普能成功当选总统，主要是因为他承诺选民将努力重塑美国经济，使其健康发展。他专注于处理他认为不公平的贸易协议和重建美国病态基础设施的需要。不幸的是，他的言辞经常退化为单纯的对中国的抨击。

Nevertheless, given the close personal relationship that has since developed between President Trump and President Xi, Trump now says he doesn’t blame China for the trade deficit, but rather his predecessors in the White House who signed the trade deals that led to the present conditions in the U.S. economy. And yet the threat of tariffs are directed primarily against China.

尽管如此，鉴于特朗普总统与习主席之间的亲密关系已经形成，特朗普现在说他不会责怪中国的贸易赤字，而是白宫的前任（总统）们签署了贸易协议而导致当前的美国经济情况。然而关税措施的威胁主要还是针对中国。

While President Trump’s intentions of improving conditions for American workers may be laudable, the means he has chosen will certainly not lead to a better situation for the American worker nor for the world. A tariff war would lead to sharp price rises which would immediately effect the living standards of every American, hitting most forcefully, low-income families. And while it would probably trigger a collapse of world markets, we could be looking ahead, and not back, at the Great Depression.

虽然特朗普总统为美国工人改善条件的初衷值得肯定，但他选择的手段肯定不会为美国工人和世界带来更好的局面。关税战将导致价格大幅上涨，这将立刻影响到每个美国人的生活水平，对低收入家庭的打击更为严重。尽管这可能会引发全球市场的崩溃，但在大萧条时期我们只能往前看，没有回头路。

The President’s problem is that he doesn’t understand the underlying problem and he underestimates the vital role of government in tackling the problem.

特朗普总统的问题是他不了解问题的本质，低估了政府在解决这个问题上的重要作用。

It’s quite true that most of the trade deals agreed to by the United States have not benefited the American workers, beginning with NAFTA. During the 1970s in particular, there was a push by most U.S. manufacturing nterprises to lower wages and cut production costs. While the trade union movement in the United States at the time was strong, it was difficult to get U.S. workers to accept major wage cuts, in particular, at a time of growing inflation. The easy way out for U.S. manufacturing industry was therefore to invest in developing countries where you could  pay workers a mere pittance compared to what the American worker expected.

事实上，从北美自由贸易协定开始，大多数美国同意的贸易协议并没有使美国工人受益。特别是在20世纪70年代，美国大多数制造企业都在推动降低工资和降低生产成本。虽然当时美国的工会运动很强大，但很难让美国工人接受大幅减薪，特别是在通胀上升的时期。因此，美国制造业的简单出路就是投资发展中国家，在那里支付与美国工人期望相比更为微薄的费用。

There was some rationale to this from the standpoint of the market trader and his shibboleth, “Buy cheap and sell dear.” But when factories started heading to Mexico to exploit the cheap labor there, nothing was done to cushion the fall for U.S. workers. Had the U.S.maintained some form of industrial policy, these workers would have been re-trained for higher technological skills and measures taken to advance the technology and the productivity in the stricken industries. While American workers DID have a higher standard of living than workers in Mexico or in China, this also provided them with the means of improving their skill levels and moving U.S. manufacturing to a higher technological level with greater productivity. But there was no consideration given to this problem by any of the U.S. presidents since then.

从市场交易者的角度来看，他们的口号就是“贱买贵卖”。但当工厂开始前往墨西哥开发廉价劳动力市场时，美国工人没有采取任何措施来缓冲这一事态。如果美国维持某种形式的产业政策，那么这些工人将会重新接受再培训，获得更高水平的技能，并采取措施来提高技术和生产力。虽然美国工人的生活水平高于墨西哥或中国工人，但这也为他们提供了提高技能水平的手段，并将美国制造业提高到技术水平更高的生产力。但自那时以来，美国任何总统都没有考虑过这个问题。

Trump could change this. But it would mean that the U.S. must return to some of the policies that were used by Franklin Roosevelt during the last Great Depression. The U.S. Government could set up an infrastructure bank or infrastructure fund to help finance the revamping of U.S. infrastructure. This would also give the possibility China to invest in U.S. infrastructure without the complaints that China was “buying up” U.S. infrastructure. 

特朗普可以改变这一点。但这意味着美国必须回归上一次大萧条时期富兰克林·罗斯福所使用的一些政策。美国政府可以设立基础设施银行或基础设施基金来帮助美国基础设施的融资改造。这也给中国投资美国基础设施提供可能性，而不是抱怨中国正在“收购”美国的基础设施。

Secondly, Trump could reinstate the Glass-Steagall legislation, as he said he would, which would create a firewall between the commercial banking system and the more speculative investment bankers. Wall Street should have no “too big to fail” banks, and the U.S. Government should not be forced to bail them out.

第二，特朗普可能会恢复格拉斯-史蒂格尔法案，正如他所言，这将会在商业银行体系和投机性较强的投资银行之间形成一道防火墙。华尔街不应该有“大而不倒”的银行，美国政府也不应该被迫救助他们。

Thirdly, the President should also move to focus on improving the scientific R&D capability of the United States. Let’s get a competent administrator for NASA and let’s go somewhere. And, by all means, Mr. President, you should have a science advisor. If the U.S. would focus on building these capabilities, and not get so paranoid of China “getting ahead” of the U.S. in the field of science, they might then lower some of the restrictions placed on China in purchasing more products from the U.S. high-tech realm or even in investing in some of the U.S. high-tech industries.

第三，总统也应该着眼于提高美国的科学研发能力。比如找一位美国航空航天局(NASA)能干的主管来负责。无论如何，总统先生应该有一位科学顾问。如果美国将重点放在建设这些能力上，而不是对中国在科学领域“超越”美国产生偏执妄想，他们可能会减少对中国的一些限制，包括让中国购买更多美国高科技领域的产品，甚至投资美国的一些高新技术产业。

And precisely because China has advanced so much in various fields of scientific endeavor, including in manned space exploration, they would be an ideal partner for joint work with the U.S. in further exploration of our universe. Such collaboration would be a win for America, a win for China, and a win for the world. 

正因为中国在包括载人太空探索在内的各个科学领域取得了重大进步，若能成为与美国共同努力进一步探索宇宙的理想伙伴，则这样的合作不仅对美国、中国来说是一场胜利，对全世界也是一场胜利。

（翻译：杨清清、范蒙）

4. 非洲中东希望维护多边贸易体制

西夏姆·宰迈提（Hisham El-Zimaity）

As if he was predicting the future. Last year at the WEF in Davos, President Xi warned that in the face of increasing uncertainties, there was a need for concerted efforts to reverse the trends of protectionism and anti-multilateralism. The decisions by the US came at a time when the world needs a peaceful and stable environment and a spirit of international relations where nations forge partnerships of dialogue not confrontation, respect each other's development path and social system. 

习近平主席好像在预测未来。他在去年达沃斯世界经济论坛上曾警告说，面对日益增长的不确定性，全世界有必要共同努力扭转贸易保护主义和反对多边主义的趋势。美国是在世界需要一个和平稳定的环境与各国需要建立对话而不是对抗，尊重彼此的发展道路和社会制度的国际关系的时候做出这样的决定。

The US Trade Representative reported that China failed to follow through on promises it made in US-China dialogues, such as declaring foreign firms were free to decide when to share technology with Chinese partners; and that Chinese regulators continue to require foreign companies to transfer technology as a condition for securing investment approvals. 

美国贸易代表称，中国未能兑现其在中美对话中做出的承诺，例如宣布外国公司可以自由决定何时与中国合作伙伴分享技术；然而中国监管机构却继续要求外国公司转让技术，并以此作为获得批准其投资的条件。

President Trump decided to slap tariffs on $US150 billion of Chinese goods and demanded Beijing help cut the $US375 billion merchandise trade deficit with China. So China warned it would retaliate with equal force. The US tariffs were being threatened under a Section 301 action in retaliation for alleged pilfering of American intellectual property and forced technology transfer from US companies operating in the lucrative China market. The US seemed worried, both on economic and defense grounds, that Beijing's "Made in China 2025" list will give China an advantage in industries such as aerospace, IT and artificial intelligence, robotics, machines, energy saving vehicles and medical devices.

美国总统特朗普决定对1500亿美元的中国商品征收关税，并要求中国帮助削减总价值3750亿美元的与中国的贸易逆差。因此，中方警告称中国将采取同样的反击行动。美国加征关税的计划是在“301调查”的威胁下所产生的，美方宣称这是为了打击剽窃美国知识产权以及中国迫使美国公司在利润丰厚的中国市场进行技术转让的行为。在经济和国防方面，美国似乎在担心“中国制造2025”清单将使中国在航天、IT和人工智能、机器人、制造业、节能汽车和医疗设备等行业获得优势。

It is unfortunate that any escalation in trade tensions which leads to a significant fall in US imports from China would have a sizable impact, not only on China and Taiwan, but on Malaysia which exports a lot of intermediate goods to China. Japan, which relies on the US for almost 20% of its exports and on China for another 20%, would face a low direct impact from the tariffs, but the country's economy could be significantly impacted by stock market volatility and fluctuations in its currency, the yen, if trade tensions escalate. South Korea, which counts both China and US among its largest trading partners, would be one of the biggest casualties if a trade war breaks out.

不幸的是，贸易紧张局势的升级导致美国从中国的货物进口大幅下降，这不仅对中国和台湾，而且对向中国出口大量半成品的马来西亚也造成相当大的影响。日本出口到美国和中国的货物几乎各自占其出口总量的20%。尽管对日本来说，来自关税的直接影响不大，但如果贸易紧张局势持续升级，日本的经济可能会受到股市波动和日元汇率波动的严重影响。中国和美国分别是韩国的第一、第二大的贸易伙伴，如果爆发贸易战，韩国将是最严重的受害者之一。

Asian economies are likely to be significantly impacted in a full-blown trade war, since these countries are export-oriented and are key suppliers of components to China. Also big financial centers such as Hong Kong and Singapore, which rely greatly on the Chinese manufacturing sector, would also suffer if trade tensions escalate.

亚洲经济体很可能在全面展开的贸易战中受到严重影响，因为这些国家都是出口导向型的国家，而且是中国零部件的主要供应国。此外，如果贸易紧张局势加剧，诸如香港和新加坡等在很大程度上依赖中国制造业的大型金融中心也会受到影响。

Even in a medium-sized country like Egypt, the price of gold has slightly gone up following the Sino-American developments. 

即使在像埃及这样的中等规模国家，黄金价格也随着中美关系的发展略有上涨。

The effects could also be felt further in the West as fears of a trade war between the US and China were driving up borrowing costs and pushing down stock prices. Companies with global operations, such as German carmaker BMW have also warned that a US-China trade war would ripple around the globe, adding that barrier-free access to markets is a key factor for growth, welfare and employment throughout the global economy. There could be a considerable loss of growth across the board if the ongoing trade skirmishes spiraled out of control.

随着美国和中国之间可能爆发贸易战导致推高借款成本、推低股价的担忧进一步被世界各国所预感，上述提到的影响在西方也会进一步加深。德国汽车制造商宝马(BMW)等拥有全球业务的公司也警告称，中美贸易战争将波及全球，并补充说，进入市场的无障碍通道是全球经济增长、福利和就业的关键因素。如果贸易冲突持续不断直至失去控制，各项增长可能都会大幅减少。

There would likely be a re-distribution in trade flow, which could see China substitute US soybeans for those from Latin America. China's proposed tariffs on fossil fuel imports from the US could also see the Middle East gaining a greater share of Chinese trade. China gets most of its polyethylene imports from the region, and could further increase its reliance on Middle Eastern countries if it decides to do so. The US currently accounts for less than 5% of China's imports of the commonly used plastic, but that number is expected to triple over the next two years if the tariffs aren't imposed. And while otherwise vulnerable, South Korea could also potentially benefit from a greater Chinese need for polyethylene, with Korean companies like Lotte Chemical and LG Chem among potential suppliers.

贸易往来可能会重新分配，从中国用美国大豆替代拉丁美洲的大豆可以看出；也从中国对美进口的化石燃料征收关税使中东在与中国贸易中获得更大份额中可以看出。中国同时还从该地区进口大部分聚乙烯产品，而且未来中国可能会决定进一步增加对中东国家的依赖。中国目前从美国进口的常用塑料占总量的不到5%，但如果不征收关税，这一数字预计将在未来两年内增加两倍。反之，韩国也有可能从中国增加对聚乙烯的需求中受益，比如乐天化工(Lotte Chemical)和LG化工(LG Chem)等韩国企业。

President Xi vowed to significantly lower 25 per cent of car tariffs, strengthen intellectual property protection and relax foreign ownership restrictions for financial firms and the manufacturing of cars, aero planes and ships. The response was the famous Tweet by President Trump: Very thankful for President Xi of China’s kind words on tariffs and automobile barriers. Also, his enlightenment on intellectual property and technology transfers. We will make great progress together. This helped calm the markets for a while. All trading partners, especially from the Middle East are Africa are hopeful that the multilateral trading system and the WTO will be preserved, and that trade disputes shall be solved within the rules of the World Trade Organization. Africa created the African Continental Free Trade Area, (AfCFTA) last month, and is working hard to tear trade walls down in order to make the continent the largest free trade area created since the establishment of the WTO. No trade walls or disputes among the two biggest trading partners of Africa and the Middle East are needed at this juncture.

习近平主席誓言要大幅降低25%的汽车关税，加强知识产权保护，放宽对金融企业和对汽车、航空飞机和船舶制造的外国股权限制。特朗普总统在推特上发表著名言论以此来回应：“非常感谢习近平主席就关税和汽车进口问题发表的友好言论，同样感谢他在知识产权和技术交流方面的启迪。我们将一起取得更大的进展。”这帮助市场平静了一段时间。所有贸易伙伴，特别是来自中东和非洲的贸易伙伴，都希望多边贸易体制和世界贸易组织能够得到保护，也希望贸易争端可以在世界贸易组织的框架内得到解决。上个月，非洲签署了非洲大陆自由贸易区协定（AfCFTA)，并正在努力拆除贸易壁垒，以使非洲大陆成为自世贸组织成立以来最大的自由贸易区。在这个节点上，非洲和中东两大贸易伙伴之间不需要任何贸易壁垒或争端。

（翻译：王婧婧）

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中国人民大学全球治理研究中心(Global Governance Research Center，RUC)成立于2017年3月9日，是北京巨丰金控科技有限公司董事长马琳女士向中国人民大学捐赠并由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）负责运营管理的教育基金项目。中国人民大学全球治理研究中心由原外交部副部长、人大重阳高级研究员何亚非领衔，前中国银行副行长、国际商会执行董事、人大重阳高级研究员张燕玲担任学术委员会主任，旨在构建高层次、高水准的全球治理思想交流平台，并向社会发布高质量的全球治理研究报告，努力践行咨政、启民、伐谋、孕才的智库使命。

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