【锐参考•中英双语】何伟文：良好的中美关系对中国改革开放至关重要

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作者何伟文系前驻旧金山、纽约总领馆经济商务参赞，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员。本文刊于1月7日中美聚焦网，原标题为《何伟文：双40周年的历史价值》。

1979年1月1日，中华人民共和国与美国发表联合声明，宣布两国正式建立外交关系。1月28日至2月5日，应美国总统吉米·卡特和夫人的邀请，邓小平副总理和夫人卓琳对美国进行了为期8天的正式访问。（档案照片）

2018年12月是两个具有历史意义的40周年纪念日：1978年12月16日中国和美国建交，1978年12月18日中国启动改革开放。它们并非巧合，而是有逻辑和现实的密切联系。

中国改革开放总设计师邓小平认为，中国要想成功改革开放，就必须与美国关系正常化。中共十一届三中全会召开前两天，中美两国签署了1979年1月1日建交的联合公报。一个月之后，邓小平访问美国并与吉米·卡特总统举行了长时间会晤。

中美关系正常化的40年对推动中国改革开放发挥了至关重要的作用，它不仅为中国提供了稳定的国际环境，还达成确保互利合作的诸多具体措施。两国签署了数百项协议，涉及贸易、科技、教育、知识产权、农业、能源、旅游、医疗服务、文化等等。美国跨国公司的大规模投资，使中国今天拥有超过68000家美资企业，为中国带来大量新产品、新技术、新视野和世界市场机遇。这些企业还直接提供了174万个工作岗位。从1979年到2017年，中美双边贸易增长233倍，在人类历史上前所未有，为中国经济增长做出了积极贡献。改革开放40多年来，有500多万中国学生到海外学习，其中1/3以上是在美国留学，他们在全世界汲取着各领域的最新知识和技能。中国在现代法律制定和学习、遵守国际贸易准则方面也受益于与美国的合作。在经过艰苦和旷日持久的谈判之后，中美两国于1999年11月15日达成中国入世协议，这是两年后中国成为WTO成员的关键。入世反过来又帮助中国在15年后成为领先的贸易大国。上述这些进程都有力推动了中国改革开放和融入世界。

另一方面，中国持续不断的改革开放也为美国企业和美国人民提供了大量机会。据美中贸易全国委员会和牛津研究院的联合研究，仅2015年的中美双向贸易和投资就为美国贡献了1.2%的GDP，并支持着260万个就业岗位。近年来，中国对美出口使美国CPI降低1.5个百分点，每个家庭每年节省大约850美元。中国加入WTO也使美国获益匪浅。根据美国商务部的数据，从2002年到2017年，美国对华出口增长了487.0%，是对全球出口增长123.1%（含中国）的四倍。同期美国从中国的进口增长了303.8%，而从全球的进口仅增长了101.7%。美国对华贸易增速远远快于对世界其他国家，而且对中国出口的增长快于从中国进口的增长。

改革开放40年来，中国的平均关税水平从超过30%降至2018年11月的7.5%，绝大部分非关税壁垒已经取消，从而为美国出口商提供了不断扩大的市场。中国目前占美国大豆出口销售的57%、波音飞机全球销量的25%、美国汽车出口的20%。中国市场的不断开放为美国跨国企业提供了大好机会。据美国商务部经济分析局的最新数据，截至2016年底，中国仅仅占有美国跨国企业海外投资资产的1.6%，但却占到其海外销售总额的6.0%、海外净收入的2.6%、海外附加值总额的5.0%。这说明，对美国跨国公司来说，中国市场的回报率高于平均回报率。美国商会发表的2018年白皮书还发现，其近六成会员将中国列入它们全球投资目的地前三位，其中的1/3会员计划在2018年将投资增加10%或更多。荣鼎集团最近的一份报告显示，截至2017年底，美国在华投资总额达到2000亿美元，在中国本土的销售额超过6000亿美元，高于美国商务部统计的2017年中国对美出口5056亿美元，并获得了700亿美元赢利。

过去40年已经证明，中美之间的良好关系对中国改革开放极具建设性，而持续开放的中国对美国的全球环境和商业利益扩张也至关重要。

唐纳德·特朗普总统就职以来两国关系的急剧下滑，特别是正在进行的贸易战，对任何人都没有好处。特朗普政府最新对华政策背后的根本问题是“中国威胁”意识。他们臆测中国会威胁美国在地缘政治和高科技产业的全球主导地位。而40年来的双边外交关系和中国的改革开放提供了一种共识，即中国无意在这两个领域挑战美国。

虽然中国的GDP已经是美国的2/3，但其2018年的人均GDP估计约为9700美元，仍低于11000美元的世界平均水平。中国经济反复出现下行压力，说明了制造业进一步升级以保持经济增长的紧迫性。中国要想避免“中等收入陷阱”并迈入高收入社会，人均GDP至少要达到14000美元，或全国GDP达到19.6万亿美元，也就是说接近美国现在的经济规模。这会对美国构成威胁吗？绝对不会。处在这一水平，中国的人均GDP还不到目前美国（60000美元）的1/4，不到经合组织国家平均水平的一半。要为人民带来幸福生活，中国还有很长的路要走。它不会对美国的主导地位构成威胁。

两个40周年对两国来说都是珍贵的记忆，它提醒我们什么是对双方有利的，什么是对双方利益有害的。关系的稳定与未来的繁荣取决于两国政府、企业、学术界和人民的战略眼光和切实努力。无论前路多么曲折，中美关系终将回归合作双赢的轨道。

English Version

 historic value of the past 40 years

December 2018 marks two simultaneous 40 years anniversaries of historic significance: China and the US established diplomatic relation on December 16, 1978, and China launched reform and opening-up on December 18, 1978. They are by no means coincidence, but closely related both in logic and reality.

Deng Xiaoping, the master designer of China's reform and opening-up, held that China must normalize its relations with the United States to make the reform and opening-up a success. Two days before the opening of the historical 3rd Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee, China and the United States signed the joint communique on establishing diplomatic relations as from January 1, 1979. A month later, Deng Xiaoping visited the United States where he had long discussions with President Jimmy Carter.

Forty years of the normalization of relations between China and the US has played a vital role in supporting China's reform and opening-up. It has not only provided a stable international environment for China, but also resulted in numerous concrete tools securing the mutual benefitial cooperation. The two countries have signed hundreds of agreements covering trade, science and technology, education, intellectual property, agriculture, energy, education, tourism, medical service, culture and more. The massive investment of the US multinational companies, which boasts over 68,000 US-invested businesses in China today, has brought tremendous new products, new technologies, new visions and world market opportunities to China. They also supported 1.74 million jobs directly. The two-way trade volume increased 233-fold from 1979 to 2017, unprecedented in human history, contributed energetically to the economic growth in China. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, over five million Chinese students studied abroad, with over one third of the total studying in the US, acquiring the latest knowledge and expertise in various sectors in the world. China has also benefited from cooperation with the US in the contemporary law making, and in learning and following international trade rules. With hard, protracted talks, China and the US reached the agreement on China's accession to WTO on November 15, 1999, which was the key for China's WTO membership two years later. The latter in turn helped turn China into a leading trading power 15 years later. All the above developments provided a strong push in China's reform and opening-up and in her integration into the world.

On the other hand, the continuous reform and opening-up in China has also provided vast opportunities for the American businesses and the America people. According to a joint study by US-China Business Council (USCBC) and the Oxford Research Institute, the two-way trade and investment in 2015 alone contributed 1.2 % to the US GDP, and supported 2.6 million jobs. In recent years, Chinese exports to the US lowered the US CPI by 1.5 percentage points and saved roughly 850 dollars per family each year. The US has also benefited tremendously from China's accession to WTO. According to the USDOC data, from 2002 to 2017, the US exports to China increased by 487.0%, four times as fast as its export to the world (including China) which increased by 123.1%. Its imports from China rose by 303.8% during the same period, while its imports from the world was up only 101.7%. The US trade with China increased much faster than the rest of the world, and its exports to China grew faster than imports from the latter.

During the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, China's average tariff levels were brought down from over 30% to 7.5% by November 2018, and most of the non-tariff barriers have been removed, offering ever expanding market for the US exporters. China now accounts for 57% of the US soybean export sales, 25% for Boeing's global sales, 20% of the US automotive exports. China's continuous opening-up in market access has provided promising opportunities for the US multinational enterprises. According to the latest data by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, USDOC), by the end of 2016, China accounted for only 1.6% of total US multinational enterprises overseas investment assets, but for 6.0% of total overseas sales, 2.6% of total overseas net revenue, and 5.0% of total overseas added value. It shows that China is a market with higher than average returns for the US multinationals. The AmCham 2018 White Paper also found that close to 60% of its members had put China among top three of their global investment destinations, and one third of them had planned a 10% or more investment increase in 2018. A recent Rhodium Group report showed that, by the end of 2017, total US investment stock in China reached $ 200 billion, making profit of $ 70 billion out of the local sales over $ 600 billion, larger than the Chinese exports to the US at $ 505.6 billion in 2017, according to USDOC data.

The past 40 years have proved that, a sound relationship between China and the US is considerably constructive to China's reform and opening-up; and a constantly opening China is also essential for the US in its global environment and ever-expanding business interests.

The current sharp downturn in the bilateral relations since President Donald Trump took office, especially the ongoing trade war, is good for nobody. A fundamental concern behind the latest Trump Administration's China policy is the mentality of “China threat”. They assume that China will threaten the US global dominance in both geopolitics and high-tech industries. The past 40 years of both the bilateral diplomatic relations and China's reform and opening-up have provided a shared cognition that China has no interest in challenging the US in either field.

Although China's total GDP is already two thirds that of the US, its per capita GDP, estimated at around $9,700 in 2018, is still below the world average of $ 11,000. The repeated downward pressure in China's economy justifies the urgency of upgrading the manufacturing to the higher end to keep economy growing. If China wants to avoid the “middle income trap” and move into a high- income society, its per capita GDP will have to attain at least $ 14,000, or a total GDP at $ 19.6 trillion, very close to the current size of the US economy. Will that be a threat to the US? Absolutely no. At that level, China's per capita GDP will be less than a quarter of the current US level ($ 60,000), or less than half that of the average OECD countries. China will still have a long way to go to bring happy lives to its people. It will cause no threat to the US dominance.

The two 40-years anniversaries are treasured memories for both countries, reminding us what is good for both and what might hurt the interests of each. A stable relationship and prosperous future depend on the strategic vision and practical efforts by both governments, businesses, academics and the peoples. Regardless of twists and turns ahead, China-US relations will ultimately return to the track of win-win collaboration.

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