外交部原副部长：美国乱象才刚开端，变局转折期中国如何探索前行之道？（中英双语）

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编者按：2月5日，由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院组织召开的“百年变局下的新征程”暨人大重阳迎春论坛2021在京圆满召开。外交部原副部长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员兼全球治理研究中心主任何亚非以“百年变局开启新征程”为题作主旨发言。实录删减版刊于2月19日《环球时报》，原标题为《在百年变局转折期探索前行之道》；视频刊于2月26日ChinaFocus。以下为发言实录全文及视频。

何亚非

历史的大江大河穿过2020年的激流险滩，2021年依然波涛汹涌，奔腾向前，百年变局进入加速期，各种全球性难题交叉叠加，给人类带来史无前例的严峻挑战。

百年变局新特征表现在三个全面深刻变化：一是世界力量平衡的深刻变化，主要是以中国为代表的的新兴大国和发展中国家力量不断上升，以美国为代表的西方国家国内矛盾恶化、力量相对下降，导致地缘政治冲突升温、文明隔阂加深；二是以军事冲突、战争和武力解决为主要手段的传统安全威胁与气候变化、传染病跨境流行、能源和粮食危机等为特点的非传统安全威胁，相互叠加，构成空前的全球性挑战；三是科学技术革命进入新的飞跃阶段，对世界政治经济文化的冲击前所未见，已经并将继续彻底改变人类的生活和生产方式，一个全新的世界初露端倪，出现在地平线上。

第一，全球地缘政治环境会持续深刻变化，更加复杂敏感，全球力量平衡和世界格局变化会继续向有利于中国的方向倾斜，中国的发展壮大不可阻挡。与此同时，美国和西方主要国家内部问题积累已久，特别是贫富差距扩大导致不平等现象严重，资本与劳动的矛盾恶化，身份政治裹挟政治运作，国内国际都有些“力不从心”。这是历史发展的大趋势，还将持续一段时间，正在深刻改变历史发展的方向。

新数据表明，中国去年经济总量超过100万亿人民币，人均GDP超过1万美元，很有希望跨过中等收入的陷阱。去年世界经济整体衰退，而中国是唯一正增长的大经济体，对外贸易也在逆势增长。

本文在《环球时报》的版面截图

2020年中国无论是抗击疫情还是复工复产，表现突出，充分体现了中国共产党和国家政治制度的动员执行能力，也凸显了人民的凝聚力和以国家集体为先的中国文化核心价值观。这与美国西方在制度、理念上完全不同，结果也不同，自然在各国引起深入思考。这些年中国在气候变化、减贫扶贫、推广新能源、改革经济发展模式、坚持全球自由贸易等方面所做的一系列承诺和举措，对人类应对全球挑战做出了思想和实践两方面的贡献。

中国深入参与国际事务和应对全球挑战的努力，在国际事务中发言权和影响力持续增长，这是不以美国西方的意志为转移的。然而，对美国和西方来说，他们的压力和战略焦虑增大，往往从负面解读中国力量的上升，担心中国发展对其主导世界事务产生冲击和影响。虽然美国和西方国家对华认知不乏正面认识中国发展有利于世界经济和世界和平的声音，但总的看，过度焦虑和战略打压在美国西方依然占主流，目前对中国的战略打压方式和节奏可能有变，大方向难以逆转。

同时，许多中小国家，包括一些西方国家明确表示不愿意在中美冲突和对抗中选边站队，说明当今世界在全球化推动下已经不是美国的世界，而是各国共同的世界，世界多极化、经济全球化的趋势不会根本逆转。这对美国和西方国家的对华遏制打压是个牵制。

全球政治经济走向最大的变数是美国。美国学者福山最近撰文指出，他在2014年描述的“美国政治衰退”这几年愈演愈烈，美国政府仍然被强大的精英集团所控制，民主和共和两党曾经的政策分歧已经升级为文化认同的分歧，这是一种无法调和的分歧。

拜登政府就职仪式华盛顿如临大敌，变成了伊拉克式的军事要塞，2万多军人严防死守，又不是外敌入侵，这说明什么问题呢？

这从一个侧面反映了美国社会严重分裂的现状，分裂裂缝是沿着种族、人群、团体等文化认同的身份政治特征展开的。大选投票给特朗普的7300万选民及其代表的美国社会力量不会退出政治舞台。特朗普已经建立独立于民主和共和两党的“爱国党”，美国政治进一步复杂化。不要轻易的认为特朗普现象或者时代已经过去，美国政治的乱象并不起始于特朗普，也不会止于特朗普。现在看到的仅仅是乱象的开端，表明美国社会矛盾已经非常尖锐，无法调和。

美国国内政治混乱和无序的根源在于贫富差距的扩大导致不平等现象日趋严重，跟全球化进程有一定关系，跟美国政治经济制度尤其是利益分配体系更是密切相关，精英集团这几十年的政治、经济、社会政策也难辞其咎。资本与劳动的对立，两者收入差距不断拉大，上世纪80年代以来，美国和许多西方国家工人收入和福利占GDP比例逐年下滑，2000年以来下滑加剧。拜登希望增加全国最低工资标准、增加公司税，政府政策有可能在资本与劳动之间向后者倾斜。这些政策并不能改变美国政治制度的根本缺陷，且能否落地还很难说。社会的不公平对内造成了百姓跟精英和政府的对立，对外就寻找替罪羊，归咎于像中国这样从全球化中获益的国家。

第二，全球性挑战的深刻变化加速，非传统安全威胁集中爆发，其中新冠疫情和气候变化最为突出，与上述地缘政治的传统安全威胁相互叠加，给人类带来的挑战前所未有，已经构成生存性危机。

2020年新冠疫情对世界各国的冲击是历史上罕见的，今年肯定还会继续困扰各国，不会就此销声匿迹，世界政治经济民生遭到严重打击，短期内难以恢复正常。今年将是病毒与疫苗赛跑的一年，是病毒变异得快还是疫苗覆盖快。

新冠疫情深刻的改变了人们的思维模式、生活方式，造成供应链断裂，阻隔国际交往、人文交流。这是影响一代人乃至几代人的历史变革。气候变化同样将改变人类对生存环境和生产方式的看法。绿色经济、绿色发展已逐步成为指导各国经济的主线。

在贫富国家经济鸿沟、数据鸿沟上，又增加了疫苗鸿沟、气候鸿沟，说到底还是贫富差距问题，这其实是最大的全球性挑战，没有全球同舟共济的相向而行、共同努力，人类的共同命运就会遭到一次比一次更加严重的打击。

在全球化背景下，各国经济的互联互通、相互依存程度很高，生产需要资金、资源和市场，初级产品需要出口市场，两者都需要强大的物流，缺一不可。因为世界已经紧紧的相互连接在一起。

就世界经济而言，疫情对经济的影响远远超过我们的想象。去年世界贫困人口增加一倍，今年还会继续增加。新冠疫情使很多服务业陷入停滞，很多行业基本被摧毁了。劳动力密集产业受新冠疫情和技术革命影响而迅速减少，供应链不断挪动位移。世界经济受到四个方面的打击：经济周期的影响、新冠疫情的打击、技术革命的影响、地缘政治的冲击，前景堪忧。

新冠疫情和气候变化给人们的教训是，如今非传统安全的威胁，譬如病毒疫情、气候变化、能源危机、粮食危机对人类的威胁十分严重。这些非传统安全威胁与地缘政治加剧、军事冲突和战争等传统的安全威胁相互叠加，不是此消彼长，对人类构成了生存性的危机。以往的危机都发生在某一个领域，现在跨领域、跨境的综合性危机由于世界的互联互通，一旦发生可以迅速传导到全球各个角落，威胁整个人类的生死存亡。

而应对全球性挑战的全球治理体系需要各国特别是大国之间的紧密合作，中美关系之所以重要，部分原因就在于此。2008年那种各国同舟共济、团结合作的精神已经不复存在，要重新恢复需要付出巨大的努力，也需要时间。

面对经济衰退和新冠疫情泛滥，主要国家已经穷尽了货币和财政政策，无限量的货币宽松、负利率政策，大规模的财政刺激措施，不是免费的午餐。总要付出代价。国际资金大进大出，美元指数大起大落，对中小国家和初级产品出口国家冲击最大。现在巴西这样的国家都陷入了政府破产的境地，金融风险可想而知。新的金融危机到来只是一个时间问题。

第三，科学技术革命的深刻变化是历史转折的有一重要特征，是推动世界经济迈入新阶段的巨大动力，技术革命往往伴随着生产方式的根本性改变，对世界政治经济以及文化的冲击前所未见，已经并将继续彻底改变人类生活的世界面貌。

技术革命突飞猛进创造了新世界、开辟了新天地，前景无限，无论是人工智能、物联网、大数据、自动化、生命科技，还是太空深海探索、新能源开发，都将彻底改变世界的面貌，改变人们的生活方式和生产模式。这是新的工业革命，是颠覆性的变化，而且将持续相当长时间。

技术革命给世界带来巨大财富和全新机遇的同时，也如同其他革命，将带来深刻的社会及其结构的变化。据国际组织估计，到2030年，现有工作岗位50%将被自动化和具有人工智能的机器人所替代，全球供应链会重新组合调整。这样的技术革命过程对社会造成动荡不可避免。各国还要面对新技术与资本结合产生严重的垄断并对国家和社会治理架构提出挑战的问题。各国准备好了吗？

百年变局的转折期充满风险和危机，大变局呼唤大智慧、大格局、大发展，需要重新认识这个世界，重新探索前行之道。大道至简，几点思考：

一是警惕陷入地缘政治的零和博弈陷阱，避免任何花样翻新、名目繁多的冷战或热战。大国竞争是正常的，需要有序、有底线、有规则，把竞争关进笼子，寻求和平相处之道。

二是必须坚持经济全球化，在改革世界贸易组织的基础上坚持自由贸易，反对保护主义；世界经济步入知识经济和数字经济新阶段，需要制定新规则，以适应技术革命和全球供应链变化，推动经济绿色、可持续发展。

三是要认真对待全球减贫、扶贫努力，为消灭贫困、消弭南北鸿沟做出共同努力，发达国家要勇于担当，把世界发展看作整体而不是少数国家的发展。联合国2030可持续发展目标是个好平台，中国自身消灭贫困的成就、中国提出“一带一路倡议”都是着眼于同样的目标。

四是面对人类共同的生存危机，重新塑造“同舟共济”精神和人类命运共同体意识。在病毒肆虐、气候变化、网络安全风险重重、核不扩散体系崩溃、粮食能源危机四伏的今天，没有比维护人类生存环境更加重要、更加紧迫的挑战。全球治理体系碎片化、无政府的状态不可持续。唯有如此，人类才能克服传统安全威胁和非传统安全威胁叠加、集中爆发的极大困难，创造新世界、新天地。

百年变局充满挑战与机遇。相信各国有充分的智慧和意愿，克服困难，积极开展对话与合作，为创造共同美好的未来作出贡献。

以下为英文版

2月26日刊于China Focus，原标题为Ushering in A New Chapter

He Yafei is former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and senior research fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. He is also the Director of Global Governance Research Center, Renmin University of China.

The new characteristics of centennial changes lie in three profound changes: 

One is deep changes in global power equilibrium, reflected mainly in the steady increase in the strength of such developing countries as China, as well as worsening domestic contradictions and a relative decrease in the strength of such Western countries as the United States.

The U.S. is largely responsible for an increase in geopolitical conflict and estrangement between civilizations.

Another relates to traditional security threats in such forms as military conflict, war and use of force. These are interwoven with such non-traditional security threats as climate change, cross-border virus spread and energy and grain crises. These are unprecedented global challenges.

A third is the scientific and technological revolution, which is entering a new period of leapfrog development. The shocks to the world’s politics, economy and culture have never been seen before. Technology is radically changing the way humans live and produce. A brand new world is on our horizon.

1. The global geopolitical environment will continue to change profoundly. It will become more complicated and sensitive. The global balance of power and world order will continue to tilt in favor of China, and China’s development will become unstoppable. 

The U.S., meanwhile — plagued by such long-standing domestic problems as a widening wealth gap, inequality, contradictions between capital and labor and identity politics hijacking its political discourse — will find that its strength increasingly falls short of its ambitions, both domestically and internationally. The same goes for other major Western countries. This is the grand trend of history, which will last for some time and deeply affects the direction of historical development. 

The size of the Chinese economy surpassed 100 trillion yuan in 2020, per capita GDP exceeded $10,000, thus the country very likely will stride over the middle-income trap. The world economy as a whole sank into recession last year, with China the only major economy that saw positive growth. Its foreign trade also grew against the overall downward trend.

Both in containing the pandemic and resuming work and production, China performed exceedingly well in 2020, demonstrating the capacity of the Communist Party of China and the political system for nationwide mobilization and policy implementation, and highlighting the cohesive power of the Chinese people and the Chinese culture’s core values of putting the state and collective first. These differ completely from the United States and the West, both institutionally and philosophically; and they have different outcomes, which naturally stirs up profound retrospection in other countries. 

The series of commitments and measures China has made and taken over the years in such areas as climate change, poverty alleviation, new energy promotion, reform of the economic development mode and global free trade have contributed both conceptually and pragmatically to humanity’s responses to global challenges.

China’s in-depth participation in international affairs and efforts to cope with global challenges, as well as the continuous increase in its say and influence in international affairs, will not be swayed according to the wishes of the U.S. and the West. Owing to growing pressure and strategic anxiety, however, the U.S. and West tend to read China’s growing strength from a negative angle, worrying that China’s development will upset their dominance of world affairs. Though there is no lack of positive comment in the West about the impact China’s progress has had on the world economy and global peace, generally speaking, when it comes to China, excessive anxiety and strategic suppression remain mainstream in the West. The forms and rhythms of suppression may vary, but the overall orientation will prove hard to reverse. 

Meanwhile, many small and medium-sized countries, including some Western ones, have clearly stated they are unwilling to take sides in a China-U.S. conflict or confrontation. This indicates that, driven by globalization, the present world is no longer dominated by the U.S. but is a world of all countries. There won’t be a fundamental reversal of the trends of a multi-polarizing world and economic globalization — which is a check on the U.S. and West’s containment and suppression of China. 

The biggest variable affecting the global political and economic orientation is the U.S. American scholar Francis Fukuyama wrote in a recent article, saying that the “U.S. political decay” he described in 2014 turned increasingly serious over the past few years, and the U.S. government is still controlled by a powerful elite group. Previous policy divergences between the Democratic and Republican parties have become exercises in cultural identification that are irreconcilable.  

Washington D.C. was turned into a military fortress around the inauguration of President Joe Biden. In the absence of any external threat, more than 20,000 soldiers were deployed there. What does that say?

From one aspect, it reflects American society’s present state of severe division, with the chasm extending along the lines of the political characteristics of the cultural identities of races, sections and groups. The 73 million people who voted for Donald Trump and the social forces they represent won’t recede from the political stage. Trump is said to be setting up a “patriot party” independent of Democrats and Republicans, and U.S. politics has become even more complicated. Don’t simply conclude the Trump phenomenon or era is a thing of the past. America’s political mess didn’t start with Trump, nor will it stop at Trump. What we see now is just the beginning of chaos, which shows that thee social contradictions in the U.S. have become very sharp and cannot be reconciled.

Political chaos and disorder in the U.S. are rooted in the inequality resulting from a widening wealth gap, which has to do with globalization but is more closely related to U.S. political and economic institutions, especially its interest-distribution regime. The elite groups’ political, economic and social policies over the past few decades are also responsible. As for the standoff between capital and labor, income gaps are steadily on the rise. Since the 1980s, the proportion of workers’ incomes and welfare in terms of GDP has been dropping one year after another — especially worsening since 2000. 

The Biden administration wants to raise the minimum wage nationally and increase corporate taxes. Its policies may tilt toward the latter between capital and labor. It is still too early to tell whether such policies can change the fundamental defects in U.S. political institutions, or whether they can be implemented at all. Internally, social unfairness has brought a standoff between the general public and the elite and government. Externally, it has brought scapegoating and shifting blame onto countries like China, which have benefited from globalization.

2. Non-traditional security threats are emerging simultaneously in great numbers. Of these, the most prominent are the coronavirus pandemic and climate change. Such threats, along with the aforementioned traditional geopolitical threats, brought humanity unprecedented challenges that constitute an existential crises.

The pandemic, which dealt unprecedented blows to economies around the globe in 2020, will no doubt continue to pester countries this year and won’t disappear thereafter. Severely hit global politics, economies and people’s livelihoods won’t regain normalcy in a short time. This year will be one in which the virus races against vaccines. 

The coronavirus has profoundly changed people’s ways of thinking and lifestyles, broken supply chains and obstructed international and people-to-people exchanges. These are historical changes that will affect one or more generations. Likewise, climate change will change people’s ideas about their living environment and methods of production. A green economy and green development have become the main themes guiding countries’ economic decisions.

In addition to the economic and digital gaps between rich and poor countries, there have been vaccine gaps and climate gaps, which will ultimately boil down to the wealth gap — the biggest global challenge. Without concerted efforts by the international community as a whole, humanity is destined to suffer increasingly severe blows. 

Against the backdrop of globalization, countries’ economies are interconnected and depend on each other to a great extent. Production needs capital, resources and markets. Primary products need export markets. Both need strong logistics and are indispensable to each other, because the world has already been interwoven tightly.

The pandemic’s impact on the world economy is beyond imagination. Worldwide, the number of poor people doubled last year and will continue to grow in 2021. The pandemic has sunk many parts of the service sector into stagnation, and many industries have simply been destroyed. Labor-intensive industries have rapidly shrunk, both because of the pandemic and the technological revolution; and supply chains constantly move and relocate. Prospects for the world economy look gloomy as it suffers four primary shocks: economic cycle, pandemic, technological revolution and geopolitics. 

The pandemic and climate change have taught people a single lesson: Non-traditional security threats, such as the coronavirus, climate change, energy and grain crises, are serious challenges rising directly in humanity’s face.  Together with such traditional security threats as deteriorating geopolitics, military conflicts and war, they constitute an existential threat. Past crises all occurred in a relatively narrow area, but nowadays when they happen — thanks to global interconnectivity — cross-region, cross-border, comprehensive crises may rapidly reach all corners of the globe, endangering humanity as a whole.

A global governance regime for handling worldwide challenges entails close cooperation between all countries, especially big countries, which is partly why the China-U.S. relationship is so important. Unfortunately, the spirit of solidarity and mutual assistance is gone, and it will take time and great effort to rebuild it. 

Facing economic recession and the pandemic, major countries have exhausted their monetary and financial tools. Limitless currency easing, negative interest rates, and large-scale financial stimulus are no free lunch. A price will have to be paid. Large-scale entry and exit of international capital and dramatic ups and downs in U.S. dollar indices deal the heaviest blows to small and medium-sized nations and countries exporting intermediate products. Now, countries like Brazil are in danger of bankruptcy, and the financial risks are imaginable. It is only a matter of time before a new financial crisis strikes.

 3. Profound changes brought by the technological revolution. These are another prominent feature of a historical turning point, and a tremendous dynamic pushing the world economy to a new stage. Technological revolutions are often accompanied by fundamental changes in methods of production. The shocks to the world’s politics and economy are unprecedented, having changed the look of the world. This will continue.

Artificial intelligence, the internet of things, big data, automation, life sciences, space and deep-sea exploration and new energy sources will fundamentally change the way the world looks, as well as people’s ways of life and mode of production.

While bringing the world tremendous wealth and new opportunities, technological revolution, like other revolutions, will also profoundly change society and its structure. According to estimates by international organizations, 50 percent of current jobs will be taken over by automation and robots with artificial intelligence by 2030, and global supply chains will undergo adjustments and reorganization. This process will inevitably lead to turbulence in society. 

Countries will also face serious monopolies originating from the combination of new technologies and capital, as well as the challenges they pose for frameworks of national and social governance. Are countries ready?

The period of transition amid centennial changes is full of risks and crises. Great changes call for great wisdom and great development. The world needs to be reevaluated, the path forward needs to be reconsidered. The ultimate truth is the simplest. 

There are several points for deliberation:

First is to be vigilant against the pitfalls of the zero-sum geopolitical game, and to avoid any form of cold or hot war. Major country competition is normal, but there must be order, bottom lines and rules. And competition must be caged in the search for peaceful coexistence.

Second is to adhere to economic globalization and free trade, and oppose protectionism on the basis of WTO reforms. As the world enters a stage of knowledge and a digital economy, new rules have to be made to adapt to the technological revolution and changes in global supply chains. Green, sustainable development must be promoted.

Third is to take global poverty alleviation and poverty relief seriously, making concerted efforts to bridge North-South gaps. Advanced countries should assume their due responsibilities, take world development as a whole instead of the interests of only a small number of countries. The UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a fine platform. China’s achievements in poverty alleviation and its Belt and Road Initiative have similar goals.

Fourth is to rebuild the spirit of mutual assistance in the face of common threats and a sense of community with a shared future for humanity facing common existential crises. Under the threat of a spreading pandemic, climate change, cybersecurity risks, collapse of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the grain crisis, there is no more important, pressing challenge than preserving the environment for human existence. Fragmentation of the global governance regime and a state of anarchy are unsustainable. Humanity won’t be able to overcome the extreme difficulties posed by the confluence and simultaneous outbreak of traditional and non-traditional security threats, which opens up new prospects.

Centennial changes are brimming with challenges and opportunities. Countries should have sufficient wisdom and willingness to overcome difficulties, engage in active dialogue and cooperation and contribute to the creation of a new future for all.

      2月5日，由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院组织召开的“百年变局下的新征程”暨人大重阳迎春论坛2021在京圆满召开。此次论坛是春节前人大重阳公开活动的收官之战，30位覆盖到了40后、50后、60后、70后、80后、90后的人大重阳高级研究员、部分全职研究人员与过往同事的老中青人才团队集体亮相，并公开发布了《后疫情时代全球“蝶形”风险及防范》研究报告。此次论坛在小鹅通、百度、B站、微博、知乎、长安街知事等多个平台同步直播，近30万人次在线观看。

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中国人民大学全球治理研究中心(Global Governance Research Center，RUC)成立于2017年3月9日，是北京巨丰金控科技有限公司董事长马琳女士向中国人民大学捐赠并由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）负责运营管理的教育基金项目。中国人民大学全球治理研究中心由原外交部副部长、人大重阳高级研究员何亚非领衔，前中国银行副行长、国际商会执行董事、人大重阳高级研究员张燕玲担任学术委员会主任，旨在构建高层次、高水准的全球治理思想交流平台，并向社会发布高质量的全球治理研究报告，努力践行咨政、启民、伐谋、孕才的智库使命。

2018年1月，中国人民大学全球治理研究中心入围由美国宾州大学“智库研究项目”（TTSCP）推出的、国际公认度最高的《全球智库报告2017》的“亚洲大国智库90强”

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