达巍: Avoiding Misperception in the China-US Thaw

导语

在过去五年中，中美紧张关系几乎影响了国际政治、经济和地缘安全的方方面面，破坏了从核不扩散到气候变化和疫情防控等一系列问题上的合作。值得庆幸的是，理性的声音开始回归，越来越多的双方学者对中美关系紧张局势发出警告。他们认为，中国和美国之间缺乏信息和思想的交流，这种所谓的“信息脱钩”给太平洋两岸带来了误解，导致了双边关系迅速恶化。
为了更好地鼓励有助于对中美关系进行理性思考的公开辩论，清华大学战略与安全研究中心（CISS）联合瑞士人道主义对话中心（HD）开启“关于促进中美降低风险的出版计划”，邀请中美两国专家围绕“中美误解与危机管理”在国际期刊上发表系列论文，讨论中美之间共同关心的且最有可能导致意外冲突的关键问题。
该系列文章已在《外交学人》（The Diplomat）网站陆续发布，欢迎广大学者关注。清华大学战略与安全研究中心中国论坛特此转发，以飨读者。

Reducing misperception is key to avoid unrealistic expectations that might ruin the current process of diplomatic engagement.

The China-U.S. relationship is undergoing a “thaw,” to use U.S. President Joe Biden’s term. The consecutive visits of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to China over the last few months are clear indicators. The two countries are trying to stabilize the bilateral relationship before their presidents meet again next week. Facing this window, reducing misperception is key to avoid unrealistic expectations that might ruin the process.

The strategic communities in Washington and Beijing may have very different and rather questionable understandings regarding the reasons why the other side wants to stabilize the relationship.

One popular idea in Washington is the so-called “peak China” hypothesis. According to this view, China’s rise reached its zenith and the Chinese government is facing tremendous challenges, including a shrinking and aging population, slowing economic growth, social unrest, as well as a deteriorated international environment. Therefore, Beijing is forced to stabilize its relationship with the United States from a weak position.

It is hard to forecast whether China’s rise has peaked or not, since this is a long-term issue. Obviously, China has great potential to rise since its income on a per capita basis has only reached a level of $12,000 last year, and China’s domestic and international strategies in the future represent the key variables.

From Beijing’s perspective, even if China-U.S. relations are stabilized, it remains impossible for Washington to loosen its economic and technological restrictions and ease the geopolitical pressure on China. Therefore, a thaw will not solve the short-term challenges facing China. Chinese decisionmakers welcome a thaw based on the simple belief that stable bilateral relations serve China’s interest in the long run, and a “strategic showdown” needs to be avoided.

Interestingly, there is a contrasting version of the “peak China” hypothesis in Beijing, and that is the notion that “the East is rising and the West is declining.” This view argues that compared with the rise of China and emerging economies, the United States and probably the entire West are declining. The advocates of this viewpoint believe that after the “trade war” and “technology war,” the U.S. found it is impossible to stop that trend. As a presidential election year is coming, the Biden administration can only “correct the mistakes” and change its confrontational policies to China.

Similar to “peak China,” it’s too early, if not completely wrong, to say whether the West is declining or not. Even if the gap in economic size between the U.S. and China continues to narrow, it is quite clear that the position of the U.S. as the world’s most powerful country will still be maintained for quite a long time. Washington’s policy adjustments are not made from a feeling of weakness. To the contrary, the Biden administration probably believes that its strategic competition with China has been quite successful in the past three years, and if the current trajectory continues, the U.S. would win its long game with China. Based on this assessment, if the U.S. and China were pulled into a conflict or war, both countries would confront a lose-lose situation. Therefore, stabilizing China-U.S. relations is in the best interest of the United States too.

The judgment that the other side’s policy adjustment results from weakness represents a big misperception. If the U.S. and China cannot accurately understand the other side’s motives for seeking a thaw, they may have unrealistic expectations about the other side’s actions. When they find out that those actions cannot meet their expectations later on, they may become more disappointed and disillusioned.

The thaw could be buried and confrontations could be reinstated, as we have experienced last February. Both countries were angered by the “balloon incident” and then we squandered three months in this thaw process, which was initiated by the two presidents at the G-20 summit last November. Now the window is open again. Let’s keep our mind sober and fingers crossed.

In a series of articles, Chinese and American experts intend to make explicit the misperceptions that drive the mistrust in the ever-increasing instability in the bilateral relationship.

This article was first published on The Diplomat on Nov. 9, 2023.

Da Wei is the director of the Center for International Security and Strategy and a professor at the Department of International Relations, Tsinghua University.

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