《观察与建议》| 全球通胀上涨与中华人民共和国消费价格

《观察与建议》2021-03 | 全球通胀上涨与中华人民共和国消费价格

Observations & Suggestions: Rising Global Inflation and Consumer Prices in the People’s Republic of China

本政策说明分析了全球通胀和大宗商品价格上涨对中国居民消费价格的潜在影响，并提出了政策建议。

This note analyzes the potential impact of global inflation and rising commodity prices on consumer prices in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and offers policy recommendations.

文中解释道，全球通胀上升和大宗商品价格上涨对中国通胀的溢出风险似乎有限。但是，潜在传导渠道是继续上升的大宗商品价格和国内通胀预期的变化。本文提出了两个政策建议：最小化通胀传导渠道以及抑制通胀预期。

It explains that the risks of spillover from higher global inflation and commodity prices to inflation in the PRC seem limited. However, possible transmission channels include further rises in commodity prices and a shift in inflation expectations in the PRC. The note provides policy recommendations on minimizing inflation transmission channels and containing inflationary expectations.

摘要

Abstract 

• 尽管全球通胀和大宗商品价格不断上涨，但预计其对中华人民共和国（中国）居民消费价格的溢出效应有限。虽然大宗商品价格上涨是驱动中国工业生产者出厂价格的潜在传导渠道，但其对居 民消费价格的传导作用较小。

  Global inflation and commodity prices are on the rise, but spillovers to the consumer price inflation in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are expected to be limited. While rising commodity prices are a possible transmission channel driving PRC producer prices, a pass-through to consumer prices should be modest. 

• 过去十年，中国的居民消费价格主要由食品价格冲击等国内因素推动。大宗商品价格冲击导致生产成本上升，对居民消费价格的影响很小。此外，全球通胀（预期）的变化对国内消费价格通胀几乎没有影响。形成这些现象的原因包括：以国内产品为主的一篮子消费品，锚定的通胀预期，以及吸收大宗商品价格冲击的系统缓冲。

  During the past decade, consumer price inflation in the PRC has been driven mainly by domestic factors, such as food price shocks. Commodity price shocks that led to higher producer costs hardly affected consumer prices. Also, changes in global inflation (expectation) have had barely an impact on domestic consumer price inflation. Reasons for these developments include a consumer basket of domestic products, anchored inflation expectations, and system buffers to absorb commodity price shocks. 

• 全球通胀上升和大宗商品价格上涨对通胀的传染性风险似乎有限。潜在传导渠道是继续上升的大宗商品价格和国内通胀预期的变化。根据国际经验，此政策说明旨在提出两个重点领域的政策建议：最小化通胀传导渠道；以及抑制通胀预期。

  Contagion risks of higher global inflation and commodity prices to inflation seem limited. Possible transmission channels are further rising commodity prices and a shift in inflation expectations in the PRC. Based on international experience, this note aims at providing policy recommendations on minimizing inflation transmission channels and containing inflationary expectations. 

目录

Contents 

• 引言
  Introduction

• 通胀溢出效应

  Inflationary Spillovers

• 中华人民共和国的通货膨胀：主要决定因素、趋势和前景

  Inflation in the PRC: Main Determinants, Trends, and Prospects

• 政策建议

  Policy Recommendations

关于《观察与建议》

《观察与建议》是一份中英文双语的系列政策报告，由亚洲开发银行（亚行）东亚局内部和外部专家编写，旨在就优先发展问题向东亚的公务人员和高层决策者提供信息和建议。议题主要由政府提出特别请求或由亚行东亚局发起，针对预期可能出现的政策或改革重点论题进行研究并给出建议。

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