《观察与建议》| 促进中国经济增长的政策措施

2020年，新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情（新冠肺炎）暴发，给中华人民共和国（中国）经济造成冲击。不过，中国经济很快复苏。到了2021年下半年，受房地产和基础设施投资疲软的拖累，国内生产总值增长放缓。预计2022年上半年经济增长仍将乏力，需根据长期增长目标及气候相关目标加大政策支持和经济刺激力度。本报告讨论了促进中国经济整体增长的短期措施和长期政策建议。

Following the economic shock in 2020 due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the People’s Republic of China recovered quickly. However, the country’s gross domestic product growth slowed in the second half of 2021, dragged by weak real estate and infrastructure investment. Economic growth is expected to remain weak in the first half of 2022. This calls for more policy support and economic stimulus, aligned with long-term growth and climate-related objectives. This paper discusses short-term measures and long-term policy recommendations to boost the country’s overall economic growth.

Abstract

摘要

• 2020年，新冠肺炎疫情暴发，给中国经济造成冲击。不过，中国经济很快复苏。到了2021年下半年，受房地产和基础设施投资疲软的拖累，国内生产总值增长放缓。预计2022年上半年经济增长仍将乏力，需要加强政策对经济的支持，以促进2022年的整体增长。应根据长期增长及气候相关目标制定经济刺激措施。

  Following a quick recovery from the economic shock in 2020 due to the COVID-19, gross domestic product growth in the People’s Republic of China declined in the second half of 2021, dragged by weak real estate and infrastructure investment. Economic growth is expected to remain weak in the first half of 2022, calling for additional economic policy support to boost overall growth in 2022. Economic stimulus should be aligned with long-term growth and climate-related objectives.
• 为支持短期经济增长，建议采取以下措施：（1）提高预算内支出，重点向医疗卫生和教育事业倾斜；（2）推进基础设施支出，重点发力经济数字化转型和软性基础设施两大领域；（3）上调最低工资标准，增加农民工收入；（4）对住房市场限制政策进行微调，促进房地产行业稳定；（5）小幅下调政策利率和银行存款准备金率，从而支持扩张性财政政策。

  To support economic growth in the short run, the following measures are recommended: (i) increase on-budget spending with emphasison health care and education; (ii) boost infrastructure spending, focusing on economic digitalization and soft infrastructure; (iii) raise minimum wages to boost migrant workers’ income; (iv) fine-tune housing market restrictions to stabilize the property sector; and (v) implement marginal cuts to policy interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratios to support a more expansionary fiscal policy.

• 更长期的政策建议包括：（1）加快向以消费为基础的服务经济转型，减少碳足迹；（2）提高国有企业效率，促进信贷资源向中小企业转移；（3）通过扩大个人所得税（个税）税基，提高个税税率的累进性，加大对低收入人群的社会转移支付，解决不平等问题；（4）增加地方财政收入；（5）建设统一、现代化的货币政策框架。
  In the longer term, policy recommendations include: (i) accelerating the transition to a consumption-based service economy, which has a smaller carbon footprint; (ii) raising the efficiency of state-owned enterprises and redirecting credit to small and medium-sized enterprises; (iii)addressing inequality through a broader and more progressive personal income tax and higher social transfers to low-income earners; (iv) increasing local governments’ fiscal revenues; and (v) unifying and modernizing the monetary policy framework.

关于《观察与建议》

《观察与建议》是一份中英文双语的系列政策报告，由亚洲开发银行（亚行）东亚局内部和外部专家编写，旨在就优先发展问题向东亚的公务人员和高层决策者提供信息和建议。议题主要由政府提出特别请求或由亚行东亚局发起，针对预期可能出现的政策或改革重点论题进行研究并给出建议。

Observations and Suggestions is an English-Chinese bilingual publication series produced by experts from inside and outside of ADB's East Asia Department. The policy notes are designed to provide information and advice on development issues to East Asia’s civil servants and policymakers. They are produced either on request from the Government or as an initiative of the East Asia Department on topics expected to emerge as policy or reform priorities.

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