《观察与建议》| 缓解中国能源短缺问题
最近，由于供需不平衡，中华人民共和国（中国）出现电力供应短缺。随着经济复苏和工业增长，能源需求逐步回升。但是，煤炭价格飞涨，对发电企业造成严重影响，电力供应增长速度由此放缓。中国政府迅速出手，提高煤炭产量，支持电力生产。本报告就如何减轻未来电力供应短缺问题提出了更多建议，包括推进居民电价市场化改革，以加快向更节能的经济转型，以及向能源密集度较低的经济转型，减少中国的碳足迹。
The recent electricity supply shortage in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is driven by a disequilibrium in demand and supply. Energy demand has picked up along with economic recovery and industry growth, but at the same time, soaring coal prices have hit power producers so that they curtailed growth in electricity supply. The PRC government has acted swiftly to increase coal output and support electricity production. This report makes further recommendations to mitigate future shortages in electricity supply, including liberalization of residential electricity prices to accelerate the transformation to a more energy-efficient economy and the transition to a less energy-intensive economy to reduce the country’s carbon footprint.
摘要
Abstract
最近，由于供需不平衡，中国出现电力供应短缺。商品出口稳健增长，对经济复苏和工业发展构成强有力的支撑，推动能源需求逐步回升。但是，煤炭价格飙升，对发电企业造成严重影响，电力供应增长速度放缓。 The recent electricity supply shortage in the PRC is driven by a disequilibrium in demand and supply. Energy demand has picked up with the economy recovering and industry growing, strongly supported by solid merchandise export growth. At the same time, soaring coal prices have hit power producers curtailing growth in electricity supply.
中国政府迅速采取行动，提高煤炭产量，支持电力生产。政府还出台了灵活性更强的能源管控政策，防止因碳减排而导致的拉闸限电和暂停生产。此外，推进工商业用户电价市场化改革，通过提高定价水平，助力发电企业。 The government acted swiftly to increase coal output and support electricity production. More flexible energy control policies prevented electricity rationing and production suspensions resulting from efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, energy prices for commercial and industrial customers were liberalized so that higher prices charged to these groups would help power producers.
居民电价目前仍维持在较低水平。短期来讲，居民电价市场化改革有助于节约能源，从而减少电力需求。同时，还可设立独立的监管机构，监管发电企业和电网公司的定价行为。一开始，不妨双管齐下：一是增强监管能力；二是逐步提高居民电价。而放眼长期的电价改革，也需要监管机构审查价格设定。 In the short term, liberalization of residential electricity prices—currently fixed at a low level—could help energy savings and thereby reduce power demand. At the same time, an independent regulatory agency could help regulate price setting by power producers and grid companies. In a first step, residential electricity prices could be increased gradually while regulatory capacity is built up. The regulatory agency would also be needed to review the price setting when enacting tariff reforms in the long term.
从更长远的角度讲，关键在于加速向能源密度较低的服务经济转型。重心从重工业向服务业和高科技行业转移，将大幅降低经济的能源密度，减少碳足迹。应推进并实施涵盖以下五方面的能源转型计划：（1）可再生能源，（2）能源效率，（3）分布式能源，（4）电网现代化，（5）区域电网互联。电价改革也必不可少，一来可将部分供电成本转嫁给消费者，二来可激励能源企业在确保自身不亏损的前提下履行其职责。最后，进一步提高能源价格将加速向更节能的经济转型。 In the longer term, accelerating the transition to a less energy-intensive service economy is key. Shifting away from heavy industry toward services and high-tech sectors will drastically reduce the energy intensity and carbon footprint of the economy. Energy transition plans covering (i) renewable energy, (ii) energy efficiency, (iii) distributed energy, (iv) grid modernization, and (v) regional inter connection should be advanced and implemented. Tariff reforms are needed to allow the partial transferring of cost of supply to consumers, while at the same time incentivizing energy companies to fulfill their role without incurring losses. Finally, higher energy prices would accelerate the transformation to a more energy-efficient economy.
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