《ULI亚太区房地产经济预测》显示：2022 年亚太地区持续复苏

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《ULI 亚太区房地产经济预测》

显示 2022 年亚太地区持续复苏

《ULI亚太区房地产经济预测》对亚太地区各经济体在 2022 年至2024年期间的发展进行了预测：2022年日本和澳大利亚的经济前景预计最为乐观，与同样前景乐观的中国、新加坡和韩国相比，其增长率更快。 

该预测还显示，今年澳大利亚预计将以最强劲的经济增长领跑报告所涵盖的六大市场。2022年国内生产总值有望增长 4.48%，远远高于2.35%的长期平均增长率。预计今年日本的经济增长将达到2.25%，相比2021年的0.45%，加快了五倍。经历了2021年的强劲复苏之后，香港特别行政区、新加坡、中国内地和韩国仍有复苏潜力，预计分别为1.00%、3.35%、4.85%和 2.0%。 

对亚太地区通胀加快的预期削弱了人们对该地区前景的乐观情绪。在所调查的六个市场中，除新加坡和韩国外，预计其他四个市场的通货膨胀将在2022 年加速，到 2024 年将有望降低到长期平均水平。与强劲的经济增长同步，澳大利亚的通胀率可能会从一年前的3.58%跃升至 2022 年的4.50%。虽然香港特别行政区的通胀率预计将上升到2.6%，但仍将低于其 11 年的平均水平2.81%。2022年中国内地和日本的通胀率预计分别将达到2.30%和1.65%。 

ULI 亚太区总裁David Faulkner表示：“我们认为从今年到 2024 年，亚太地区将继续处于上行通道，新冠疫情之后将出现持续复苏。亚太地区最大的经济体预计都将出现通胀率迅速加快，但即便如此，短期的推动仍然存在。在此背景下，我们预计房地产行业在未来几年将保持韧性，写字楼、物流和零售地产等细分市场的资本化率将基本稳定。” 

预计东京的市场前景相对积极，今年这座城市的写字楼资本化率是2.60%，为亚太地区最低。到2024年，这个数字可能会下降到2.30%，表明国内写字楼市场的需求将会持续强劲。相反，今年上海和悉尼的写字楼市场资本化率预计将分别达到 4.53%和4.40%。两年后可能会达到峰值：4.60%和4.50%，存有一些投资潜力空间。

在调查的六个主要市场中，新加坡的物流地产细分市场是最有吸引力的，今年的资本化率预计将达到6.4%，可谓一骑绝尘。香港特别行政区物流地产的资本化率预计在2024 年会略微下降到3.40%（2022年：3.55%），但上海正朝着另一个方向发展——预计两年后将上升到5.10%。同期，东京、首尔和悉尼的资本化率可能会保持稳定。 

在2022年和2024年之间，首尔和悉尼的零售地产市场预计将略有改善，2024年两地零售地产的资本化率预计分别为 4.20%和4.33%，比2022年略有下降（2022年：4.30%和 4.38%）。受出行限制的影响，上海零售地产的资本化率预计将在2023 年冲上峰值4.88%，达到五年来的最高点。

《ULI 房地产经济预测》每半年推出一次，其结果基于十家领先房地产机构的经济学家和分析师的预测，这些机构包括阿伯丁标准投资公司、AEW、高力国际、戴德梁行、Heitman、仲量联行、牛津经济研究院、Nuveen Real Estate、丰泰地产投资和施罗德资本。仲量联行和牛津经济研究院还为该预测报告提供了历史数据。该预测报告对香港特别行政区、新加坡、上海、东京、首尔和悉尼六个主要区域市场的关键经济和房地产数据点的三年预测进行了深入的研究，此外还研究了中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚的其他指标。

如欲线上浏览《ULI 亚太区房地产经济预测》，敬请访问 https://asia.uli.org/real-estate-economicforecast/。

Sustained Asia Pacific Recovery in 2022, According to ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast

Japan and Australia are expected to enjoy an upbeat economic outlook in 2022 with faster growth rates compared to Hong Kong SAR, China Mainland, Singapore, and South Korea, according to the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Real Estate Economic Forecast for the Asia Pacific region covering 2022 to 2024.

Australia is projected to lead the pack this year with the strongest economic growth out of the six markets covered by the Forecast. GDP is likely to expand 4.48% in 2022, well above the long-term average of 2.35%. Elsewhere in Japan, the economy is forecast to grow five times faster this year at 2.25% from 0.45% in 2021. Following a strong recovery in 2021, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, China Mainland and South Korea remain resilient this year. Even so, these markets are expected to record slower growth rates 1.00%, 3.35%, 4.85%, and 2.0% respectively.

Expectations of faster inflation in the region temper upbeat sentiment on Asia Pacific’s outlook. Inflation rates in four out of the six markets surveyed, with the exception of Singapore and South Korea, are estimated to accelerate in 2022 before trending lower to their long-term average by 2024. In tandem with strong economic growth, Australia is likely to see inflation jump to 4.50% in 2022, from 3.58% just a year ago. While Hong Kong’s inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.6%, it will remain below its 11-year average of 2.81%. China Mainland, and Japan are projected to record the following inflation rates in 2022: 2.30% and 1.65% respectively.

David Faulkner, President of ULI Asia Pacific, said: “We believe Asia Pacific will continue to be on an upward trajectory between this year and 2024, pointing towards a sustainable recovery following the pandemic. Even so, short-term tailwinds remain, as inflation rates in the region’s largest economies are projected to accelerate rapidly. Against this backdrop, we are expecting the real estate sector to remain resilient in the next few years, with largely stable capitalisation rates across the office, logistics, and retail segments.”

Tokyo is expected to witness a positive market outlook with office capitalisation rate of 2.60% this year, the lowest in the region. The rate will likely to dip to just 2.30% by 2024, reflecting continued robust demand for office assets domestically. Conversely, Shanghai’s and Sydney’s office sectors are expected to witness 4.53% and 4.40% of office capitalisation rates respectively this year. The rates will likely peak at 4.60% and 4.50% two years later, leaving some room for investment potential.

Singapore’s logistics segment is the most attractive among the six key markets surveyed, with the highest estimated capitalisation rate of 6.4% this year. While Hong Kong SAR is expected to witness a slight fall in its logistics capitalisation rate to 3.40% in 2024 (2022E: 3.55%), Shanghai is moving towards the other direction with a projected rise to 5.10% in two years’ time. The rates for Tokyo, Seoul, and Sydney are likely to remain stable between 2022 and 2024.

Seoul’s and Sydney’s retail sectors are expected to slightly improve between 2022 and 2024 with retail capitalisation rates compressing to 4.20% and 4.33% in 2024 (2022E:4.30% and 4.38%) respectively. Impacted by mobility restrictions, Shanghai’s retail capitalisation rate is expected to peak in 2023 at 4.88%, the highest in five years.

The semi-annual ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast’s findings are based on a forecast survey from economists and analysts at ten leading real estate organisations, including Aberdeen Standard Investments, AEW, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield, Heitman, JLL, Oxford Economics, Nuveen Real Estate, Phoenix Property Investors and Schroders Capital. It is also based on historical data provided by JLL and Oxford Economics. The report takes a deep dive into the three-year forecast for key economic and real estate data points for six major regional markets: Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul, and Sydney, as well as additional indicators for China, Japan, South Korea and Australia.

The ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, Asia Pacific is available online at https: //asia.uli.org/real-estate-economic-forecast/.

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