启研学社由知名学者担任学术顾问，高校师生与企研数据科学团队联合组建，以大数据资源及相关技术助力中国学术与智库研究为宗旨的研究组织。团队当前的主要目标是挖掘经济社会大数据资源在学术和智库领域的应用价值，开展学术大数据治理研究，以及探索大数据分析技术融入中国经济社会研究的可行进路。
关注我们！公众号对话框内发送关键词“20210221”获取《can China's overuse of fertilizer be reduced without threatening food security and farm incomes? 》PDF版。
《Agricultural Systems》最新影响因子为4.21，为JCR Q1区期刊。主要发表农业系统与土地利用、自然资源、社会经济、环境系统相互影响方面的研究成果。
文章摘要及翻译（注：翻译仅供参考，如有出入，以原文为准。）
Abstract
CONTEXTSince 1980, China has made impressive progress in increasing agricultural production, improving food security and reducing rural poverty. Increased use of chemical fertilizer has played a vital role in this, but presently fertilizer overuse is posing severe challenges for the environment and human health. In response to this, the Chinese government has announced policies to reduce chemical fertilizer use, while at the same time supporting rural incomes and maintaining food self-sufficiency in major grains.OBJECTIVE
The objective of the paper is to assess the effectiveness of these policies in reducing the nutrient surpluses, maintaining food self-sufficiency and supporting rural incomes throughout China.METHODS
We use a spatially and socially detailed general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy to simulate the potential impact of these policies on agricultural production, environmental pollution and rural incomes. The scenarios are developed in a step-wise fashion to show the contribution of specific measures included in the policies.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Our main results are that nitrate surpluses can be reduced by more than 50% and phosphate surpluses even by more than 75% without significant negative impacts on China's food self-sufficiency, provided that the government adopts appropriate policy combinations. At the same time, the income of the average crop farmer goes up slightly compared to the business-as-usual scenario. However, the spatial variability is large, requiring supplementary targeted income support measures, particularly in poverty-stricken provinces like Shaanxi, Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan where also the income gains of the new policies are below average.SIGNIFICANCE
The results show that appropriate policy combinations should address both the efficiency of chemical fertilizer use and the intensity of organic fertilizer use. Hence, substantial efforts are necessary in mobilizing stakeholder involvement in implementing the policies.Keywords
China, Sustainable agriculture, Environmental policy, Rural development, Food self-sufficiency, Agricultural modeling摘要
背景：自1980年以来，中国在增加农业产量、提高粮食安全和减少农村贫困方面取得了举世瞩目的成就。化肥使用量的增加在其中发挥了重要作用，但目前化肥的过量使用对环境和人类健康构成了严峻挑战。为此，中国政府宣布了减少化肥使用的政策，同时支持农村增收、保持主要粮食作物的自给自足。
目标：本文旨在评估这些政策在减少中国各地营养过剩、保持粮食自给自足和支持农村增收方面的效果。
方法：我们使用一个空间上和社会上详细的中国经济一般均衡模型来模拟这些政策对农业生产、环境污染和农村收入的潜在影响。这些情景是以逐步发展的方式来显示政策中具体措施的贡献。
结果和结论：我们的主要结果是，只要政府采取适当的政策组合，硝酸盐过剩量可以减少50%以上，磷酸盐过剩量甚至可以减少75%以上，而不会对中国的粮食自给率产生明显的负面影响。同时，普通农户的收入比照常情况下略有增加。但空间差异较大，需要采取补充性的定向收入支持措施，特别是陕西、重庆、贵州、云南等贫困省份，新政策的收入收益也低于平均水平。
意义：结果表明，适当的政策组合应同时解决化肥使用效率和有机肥使用强度的问题。因此，在动员利益相关者参与政策实施方面需要付出大量的努力。
关键词
中国，可持续农业，环境政策，农村发展，粮食自给自足，农业建模文章简介
数据来源：中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统（CHIANGRO）
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翻译 | 张惠茹
审核 | 沈梦露
排版编辑丨青酱
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