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1Removing the “Hats of Poverty”:Effects of ending the national poverty county program on fiscal expenditures
摘掉“贫困的帽子”：结束国家贫困县项目对财政支出的影响[1]
作者：JiongZhu,ShouyingLiu,YihaoLi
发表日期 ：《China Economic Review》,October 2021
摘要（中英文）：This paper investigates the effect of the cancellation of China's program of “national poverty counties”—a place-based policy—on county-level fiscal expenditures.Our difference-in-differences results indicate that the cancellation reduces the county fiscal expenditure-to-GDP ratio by an average of 3.78%.To support a causal interpretation of these findings,we provide two plausible explanations,the reverse flypaper effect and the active passive waste effect.Our findings survive the consideration of selection bias,omitted-variable bias,and spatial correlation.Policy implications of our findings are also discussed.
本文研究了中国取消“国家贫困县”计划——一项基于地方的政策——对县级财政支出的影响。我们的差值结果表明取消使县财政支出占 GDP 的比率平均降低了 3.78%。为了支持对这些发现的因果解释，我们提供了两个合理的解释，反向捕蝇纸效应和主动/被动浪费效应。我们的发现在考虑选择偏差、遗漏变量偏差和空间相关性的情况下仍然存在。还讨论了我们的研究结果的政策含义。
关键词（中英文）：China;Fiscal expenditure;National poverty county;Place-based policy;Poverty program
中国；财政支出；国家贫困县；实体政策；减贫方案
期刊介绍：《China Economic Review》(《中国经济评论》)最新影响因子为2.736，主要发表关于中国经济及其与世界经济关系的原著。我们特别寻求有关中国经济体制变化、政策和绩效的定量和分析性论文；鼓励对中国与其他国家的发展过程进行比较研究。
2Predicting energy poverty with combinations of remote-sensing and socioeconomic survey data in India:Evidence from machine learning
结合遥感和社会经济调查数据预测能源贫困：来自印度多维度电力供应的证据[2]
作者：Hanjie Wang,Lucie Maruejols,Xiaohua Yu
发表日期：《Energy Economics》 ,October 2021
摘要（中英文）：Identifying energy poverty and targeting interventions require up-to-date and comprehensive survey data,which are expensive,time-consuming, and difficult to conduct,especially in rural areas of developing countries.This paper examined the potential of satellite remote sensing data in energy poverty prediction combined with socioeconomic survey data in response to these challenges.We found that a machine learning algorithm incorporating geographical and environmental remotely collected indicators could identify 90.91% of the districts with high energy poverty and performs better than those using socioeconomic indicators only.Specifically,precipitation and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) offer the most significant contribution. Moreover,the algorithm,which was trained using 2015 dataset,could also predict energy poverty using two environment indicators:precipitation and PM2.5 concentration.
确定能源贫困和有针对性的干预措施需要最新和全面的调查数据，这是昂贵、耗时和难以进行的，特别是在发展中国家的农村地区。本文探讨了卫星遥感数据结合社会经济调查数据在能源贫困预测方面的潜力，以应对这些挑战。我们发现，结合地理和环境远程收集指标的机器学习算法可以识别90.91%的高能源贫困地区，比仅使用社会经济指标的地区表现更好。具体来说，降水和细颗粒物（PM2.5）的贡献最大。此外，该算法使用2015数据集进行训练，还可以利用降水和PM2.5浓度两个环境指标预测能源贫困。
关键词（中英文）：Remote sensing data;Machine learning;Energy poverty prediction;Random forest; Precipitation;PM2.5 concentration
遥感数据;机器学习；能源贫困预测；随机森林；降水；PM2.5浓度
期刊介绍：《Energy Economics》（《能源经济学》）是能源经济学和能源金融的首要领域期刊。主题包括但不限于能源的开发、转换和使用，能源商品和衍生品的市场，监管和税收，预测，环境和气候，国际贸易，发展和货币政策。对本刊的投稿可以使用一系列的方法，如果适当和严格的应用，包括但不限于实验、调查、计量经济学、分解、模拟模型、均衡模型、优化模型和分析模型。最新影响因子为5.203。
3Do geographical indications preserve farming in rural areas? Evidence from a natural experiment in Japan
地理标志能保护农村地区的农业吗？来自日本的一个自然实验[3]
作者：Taisuke Takayama,Takashi Norito, Tomoaki Nakatani,Ryoji Ito
发表日期：《Food Policy》 ,July 2021
摘要（中英文）：Geographical indications (GIs),or signs on products indicating a region of origin,are expected to secure higher incomes and retain the rural population in less favored or remote areas.In this study,we examine the effect of GIs on the maintenance of farming using a case study on Uonuma rice,with region-of-origin labeling, produced only in the Uonuma district of Niigata prefecture in Japan.Although Uonuma rice is not yet an official GI,it qualifies in principle for GI registration under its long-standing reputation for quality and GI-like protection by the producer’s organization.We exploit a municipal merger in a district adjacent to Uonuma district as a natural experiment,in which a hitherto homogeneous region was split and one section became part of Uonuma district.Using detailed community-level panel data, we find that there is a positive effect on the number of farm households and the area of operated farmland in a rural community.Also,producing Uonuma rice led to older farmers continuing to farm due to higher rice prices. Meanwhile,we found no evidence that the adoption of Uonuma rice had a positive effect on the number of young farmers.This may make it difficult to maintain the rural community due to the aging of community members.
地理标志（GIs）即产品上标明原产地的标志，有望提高农民收入，并将农村人口留在偏远农村地区。在本研究中，我们以日本新泻县的鱼沼地区生产的鱼沼大米为例，研究了GIs对农业维持的影响。虽然鱼沼大米还不是一个正式的地理标志，但由于其长期以来的质量声誉和生产者组织类似地理标志的保护，原则上它有资格进行地理标志注册。我们将鱼沼区附近的一个地区的市政合并作为一个自然的实验，在这个实验中，一个此前同质的地区被分割，其中一部分成为鱼沼区的一部分。利用详细的社区层面面板数据，我们发现在农村社区中，农户数量和经营耕地面积都有积极的影响。此外，由于大米价格上涨，生产鱼沼大米的老年农民继续耕作。同时，我们并没有发现采用鱼沼水稻对年轻农民数量有积极影响的证据。由于社区成员的老龄化，这可能会使农村社区难以维持。
关键词（中英文）：Geographical indication;Rural development;Rice;Natural experiment;Japan
地理标志；农村发展；米；自然实验；日本
期刊介绍：《Food Policy》（《粮食政策》）是一份多学科期刊，最新影响因子为2.382，发表关于发展中国家、转型期国家和发达经济体食品部门政策制定、实施和评估问题的原创研究和新证据。本刊重点刊载食品政策的经济和社会方面的文章，优先考虑为国际食品政策辩论提供信息的实证研究。
4Falling price induced diversification strategies and rural inequality:Evidence of smallholder rubber farmers
价格下跌导致多元化战略和农村不平等：橡胶小农户的证据[4]
作者：Shaoze Jin,Shi Min,Jikun Huang,Hermann Waibel
发表日期：《Word Development》,October 2021
摘要（中英文）：While the expansions of natural rubber in the greater Mekong region from the 1990s were ambitious,the persistently low commodity price of rubber from 2012 makes smallholder rubber farmers suffer from vulnerable livelihoods.This study sheds light on the adjustments in livelihood strategies of smallholder rubber farmers when the upsurge in rubber prices came to an end. Based on the two-wave panel data from some 600 smallholder rubber farmers in the upper Mekong region,Southern Yunnan province of China,this study shows the diversification strategies of smallholders in response to falling rubber prices and examines the impacts of livelihood diversification strategies on farmer income and rural inequality.The results suggest that smallholder rubber farmers tend to shift family labor from farms to off-farm employment and diversify their livelihoods in the context of declining rubber prices.Notably,farmers with relatively low dependence on rubber are more likely to diversify their livelihoods.The falling price induced diversification strategy makes smallholders more resilient against future risks and narrows the rural income gap.The findings of this study advance the literature by providing evidence on how farmers’ livelihood strategy and rural inequality change in the face of periodical rubber price volatility.
从上世纪90年代开始，尽管天然橡胶在大湄公河地区的扩张充满野心，但从2012年开始，橡胶的大宗商品价格持续走低，使得橡胶小农的生计变得难以为继。本研究揭示了橡胶价格上涨结束后，橡胶小农生计策略的调整。基于双波面板数据对湄公河上游地区及中国云南省南部的600名橡胶小农进行研究,显示了小农的多元化策略以应对橡胶价格下跌和探讨了影响农民收入和农村的生活多元化策略的不平等。结果表明，在橡胶价格下降的背景下，橡胶小农倾向于将家庭劳动力从农场转移到非农就业岗位，并使生计多样化。值得注意的是，对橡胶依赖程度相对较低的农民更有可能实现生计多样化。价格下跌引发的多元化战略使小农对未来风险的抵御能力更强，并缩小了农村收入差距。本文的研究结果为橡胶价格周期性波动下农民生计策略和农村不平等的变化提供了证据，推动了文献的发展。
关键词（中英文）：Livelihood diversification;Income;Inequality;Smallholder rubber farming
生计多样化；收入；不平等；小农橡胶种植
期刊介绍：《Word Development》(《世界发展》)是一份多学科发展研究月刊。它通过研究以下问题的可能解决方案来寻求提高生活水平和一般人类状况的方法：贫穷、失业、营养不良、疾病、缺乏住房、环境退化、科技资源不足、贸易和付款不平衡、国际债务、性别和种族歧视、军国主义和国内冲突以及民众缺乏参与经济和政治生活，影响因子5.278。
5Development of the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
项目级农业妇女赋权指数(pro-WEAI)的制定[5]
作者：Hazel Malapit,Agnes Quisumbing,Ruth Meinzen-Dick,Greg Seymour,Elena M.Martinez,Jessica Heckert, Deborah Rubin, Ana Vaz, Kathryn M.Yount,Gender Agriculture Assets Project Phase 2 (GAAP2) Study Team
发表日期：《Word Development》,October 2019
摘要（中英文）：With growing commitment to women’s empowerment by agricultural development agencies,sound methods and indicators to measure women’s empowerment are needed to learn which types of projects or project-implementation strategies do and do not work to empower women.The Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI),which has been widely used, requires adaptation to meet the need for monitoring projects and assessing their impacts.In this paper,the authors describe the adaptation and validation of a project-level WEAI (or pro-WEAI) that agricultural development projects can use to identify key areas of women’s (and men’s) disempowerment,design appropriate strategies to address identified deficiencies,and monitor project outcomes related to women’s empowerment.The 12 pro-WEAI indicators are mapped to three domains:intrinsic agency (power within), instrumental agency (power to),and collective agency (power with).A gender parity index compares the empowerment scores of men and women in the same household.The authors describe the development of pro-WEAI,including:(1) pro-WEAI’s distinctiveness from other versions of the WEAI;(2) the process of piloting pro-WEAI in 13 agricultural development projects during the Gender,Agriculture, and Assets Project,phase 2 (GAAP2);(3) analysis of quantitative data from the GAAP2 projects,including intrahousehold patterns of empowerment/disempowerment;and (4) a summary of the findings from the qualitative work exploring concepts of women’s empowerment in the project sites.
由于农业发展机构对赋予妇女权力的承诺越来越大，需要有可靠的方法和指标来衡量赋予妇女权力，以了解哪些类型的项目或项目执行战略对赋予妇女权力起作用，哪些不起作用。农业妇女赋权指数(WEAI)已得到广泛应用，需要对其进行调整以满足监测项目和评估其影响的需要。在本文中，作者描述了农业发展项目可以用来确定妇女（和男子）赋权的关键领域的项目级农业妇女赋权指数(pro-WEAI)的适应和验证，设计适当的策略来解决已有的不足，并监测与妇女赋权相关的项目成果。12个项目级农业妇女赋权指数指标被映射到三个领域：内在代理（内部权力），工具代理（权力的权利）和集体代理（权力的义务）。性别平等指数比较了同一家庭中男性和女性的赋权得分。作者描述了项目级农业妇女赋权指数的发展，包括：(1) 项目级农业妇女赋权指数与其他农业妇女赋权指数版本的区别；(2）第二阶段性别、农业和资产项目（GAAP2）中13个农业发展项目的项目级农业妇女赋权指数的试点过程；(3) GAAP2项目的定量数据分析，包括家庭内部赋权/不赋权模式；(4）对在项目现场探索妇女赋权概念的定性工作的结果进行总结。论文最后讨论了从项目级农业妇女赋权指数的经验教训到进一步发展赋权指标的可能性。
关键词（中英文）：Agency;Agricultural development;Multidimensional measurement;Gender equality;Women’s empowermen
代理；农业发展；多维措施；性别平等；妇女赋权
期刊介绍：《Word Development》（《世界发展》）是一份多学科发展研究月刊。它通过研究以下问题的可能解决方案来寻求提高生活水平和一般人类状况的方法：贫穷、失业、营养不良、疾病、缺乏住房、环境退化、科技资源不足、贸易和付款不平衡、国际债务、性别和种族歧视、军国主义和国内冲突以及民众缺乏参与经济和政治生活，影响因子5.278。
6Rural Roads and Local Economic Development
农村道路与地方经济发展[6]
作者：Sam Asher,Paul Novosad
发表日期：《American Economic Review》,March 2020
摘要（中英文）：Nearly one billion people worldwide live in rural areas without access to national paved road networks.We estimate the impacts of India's 40 billion USD national rural road construction program using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and comprehensive household and firm census microdata.Four years after road construction,the main effect of new feeder roads is to facilitate the movement of workers out of agriculture. However, there are no major changes in agricultural outcomes,income,or assets.Employment in village firms expands only slightly.Even with better market connections,remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities.
全世界有近10亿人生活在农村地区，无法使用国家铺设的公路。我们使用模糊回归间断设计和全面的家庭和企业人口普查微观数据，估计了印度400亿美元国家农村道路建设项目的影响。道路建设四年后，新支线道路的主要作用是方便了工人离开农业。然而，在农业产出、收入或资产方面没有重大变化。农村公司的雇佣人数只略微增加。即使有更好的市场联系，偏远地区可能仍然缺乏经济机会。
关键词（中英文）：Transport Services;Food Security;Rural Roads & Transport;Roads & Highways;Labor Markets
运输服务；粮食安全；农村道路与交通；公路和高速公路；劳动力市场
期刊介绍：《American Economic Review》（《美国经济评论》）是一份综合性的经济学杂志。成立于1911年的AER是美国最古老和最受尊敬的经济学专业学术期刊之一，目前正在庆祝出版超过100年。该杂志共出版12期，内容广泛。影响因子为4.250。
7Blame it on the rain:Rainfall variability,consumption smoothing,and subjective well‐being in rural Ethiopia
埃塞俄比亚农村地区降雨量的多变性、消费的稳定性和主观幸福感都要归咎于降雨[7]
作者：Yonas Alem,Jonathan Colmer
发表日期：《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》,19 August 2021
摘要（中英文）：How does income uncertainty affect individual well-being?Combining individual-level panel data from rural Ethiopia with high-resolution meteorological data,we estimate that mean-preserving increases in rainfall variability are associated with reductions in objective consumption and subjective well-being.Mediation analysis suggests that the estimated reduction in consumption does not fully explain the total effect on individual well-being.Increased rainfall variability also has a large direct effect on individual well-being.These findings suggest that the gains from further consumption smoothing are likely greater than estimates based solely on observed consumption fluctuations.
收入不确定性如何影响个人福祉？结合来自埃塞俄比亚农村地区的个人层面的面板数据和高分辨率的气象数据，我们估计，平均值保持不变的降雨量的变异性的增加与客观消费和主观福祉的减少有关。中介分析表明，估计的消费减少并不能完全解释对个人福祉的总体影响。降雨变异性的增加也对个人福祉有很大的直接影响。这些发现表明，考虑到消费稳定性带来的收益很可能大于仅根据观察到的消费波动所作的估计。
关键词（中英文）：consumption smoothing;income uncertainty;rainfall variability;subjective well-being JEL codes
消费平稳；收入不确定性；降雨变异性；主观幸福感分类系统编码
期刊介绍：《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》（《美国农业经济学杂志》）旨在为世界各地的农业和食品经济学、自然资源和环境、以及农村和社区发展等领域的创造性学术工作讨论提供平台。
参考资料
摘掉“贫困的帽子”：结束国家贫困县项目对财政支出的影响: 文献链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1043951X21000912
[2]结合遥感和社会经济调查数据预测能源贫困：来自印度多维度电力供应的证据: 文献链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321003923
[3]地理标志能保护农村地区的农业吗？来自日本的一个自然实验: 文献链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102101；PDF：https://sci-hub.se/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102101
[4]价格下跌导致多元化战略和农村不平等：橡胶小农户的证据: 文献链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X21002199
[5]项目级农业妇女赋权指数(pro-WEAI)的制定: 文献链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19301706#!
[6]农村道路与地方经济发展: 文献链接：https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180268
[7]埃塞俄比亚农村地区降雨量的多变性、消费的稳定性和主观幸福感都要归咎于降雨: 文献链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajae.12253；PDF：https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/ajae.12253
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