2020东京奥运会，明年见！
曾在东京羽田机场一下飞机就看到各种奥运广告和海报，好像一下子回到了 2008 年的春天，当时中国正在为北京奥运会做着最后的筹备和宣传。我们即将迎来的是北京和这个快速崛起的国家的高光时刻。
羽田机场航站楼奥运广告
一过海关就看到的欢迎语
东京奥运会和残奥会吉祥物
未来永远郎（Miraitowa）和染井吉（Someity）
但明显又不是 2008 年的春天。机场大厅的冷清跟海报呈现出的热情形成了鲜明的反差。我掏出手机，那期《经济学人》亚洲版块的 Banyan 专栏写的正是日本，it says：Japan may have to cancel the Olympics.
我多么希望这不是真的。换位想想，如果 2008 年北京奥运会因为这样的黑天鹅事件被迫挪到 2009 年，我们会多么伤心？
今天是在家隔离的第 14 天，两周前在东京成田机场的免税店买东西，有一小块地方是专门给 2020 年东京奥运会纪念品留出的。我当时还在纠结要不要买一点，结果东京奥运会真的要延期了。诸事无常。
两年多前一个美国国际新闻教授在知乎上提问：Are the Olympics only about sports? Or another form of global, cultural communications? Or about something else? What do you think?
奥运会是体育竞技，但又不只是体育竞技。下面是我当时的回答，跟大家分享。
The Olympics, by their very nature, are not and cannot be only about sports.
For any country, to win the bid to host the Olympics is a badge of honor. For emerging countries, it's also a tremendous opportunity to flex their newly gained economic, political, and cultural muscles in the coveted and deserved spotlight (Seoul in 1988, Beijing in 2008, Rio in 2016, to name only a few). For the rich countries who have already hosted the games before, it's the chance to put yet more cities on the map and reassert their ambition (say Atlanta in 1996).
The games have always gone hand in hand with diplomacy. Winning the right to be the host itself requires considerable diplomatic prowess. Throughout history, international politics has made or broken the Olympics. World War I shattered the Germans' Olympic dream in 1916, and it was not until 1936 when Berlin belatedly reclaimed the glory to stage the games. Similarly, the Japanese lost the chance in 1940 thanks to World War II. Also affected were Londoners, who had to postpone the events until four years later, 1948.
The unparalleled symbol of the Olympics can make hosting countries highly vulnerable. Citizens of the hosting countries view the Olympics as a perfect occasion to air their grievances, as were the case in Seoul and Beijing. In Rio, protesters were better organized to make their voices heard, and indeed the world listened. The darkest Olympic moment probably came in 1972, when during the high-profile Munich games, eleven Israeli Olympians were taken hostage and eventually killed by the Palestinian terrorist group Black September. Gruesome images still haunt many baby boomers to this day.
The most enduring quality of the Olympics, however, is perhaps their marvelous ability to mend fences, heal wounds, and paradoxically, transcend myopic national interests. Peace is relative. Conflicts are the norm. Because of the ever perfected technology and the sophistication of media the Olympics, especially the symbolic opening and closing ceremonies, are better presented to a wider audience worldwide. When the North and South Korean Olympic team members marched into the stadium together under a united flag in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics opening ceremony a couple of days ago, it offered hope. Such a scene is not rare and is not special to this year's Olympics.
In sum, the Olympics are deeply national, international, political, and unmistakably human. And they are understandably so.
P.S. This year, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics will have to be postponed not because of international politics, but a pandemic, a common enemy still raging in most parts of the world.
Miraitowa and Someity, please wait patiently. Let's meet when cherry blossoms bloom again next year.
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孟庆伟 Justin
个人微信 ID：justinqmeng
现象级英语联合创始人
《经济学人》11 年研究者
雅思写作 8 分，口语 8 分
题图：Haneda Airport, Tokyo
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