【周末荐读】IMF前高管：SDR篮子中的人民币——对中国以及全球金融的影响（附英文原文）
本文作者为IMI学术委员、IMF亚太区原副总裁曾颂华。2016年10月1日，人民币正式加入SDR篮子，这无疑是中国改革开放进程中的一座里程碑。对中国而言，这象征着中国在经济转型过程中逐步被国际社会接纳，从一个贫穷封闭的经济体成功转型成为世界经济中的重要新兴经济体。作者提到，对于国际货币基金组织与全球金融系统，这也是一个新兴市场的货币史上首次被加入SDR篮子。同时，一些评论家对于IMF的这一决定颇有微词。一些评论家认为这一决定带有“政治性色彩”，他们认为这一决定是为了促进中国经济的崛起，并且他们认为中国目前的改革与开放仍不彻底，尤其是在汇率管理与资本账户开放两方面。本文即针对这一观点展开，用翔实的数据与严密的逻辑进行了有力论述。
本文第一部分首先阐释了如何基于IMF对于新加入SDR篮子的货币的衡量标准，实现对人民币的合理相对评估；第二部分进一步分析了人民币加入SDR篮子对中国与世界金融系统的影响；第三部分则基于事实，提出了全文的结论性观点。
RENMINBI IN THE SDR BASKET: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL
Wanda Sung Hwa Tseng
曾颂华
SEPTEMBER 26, 2016The addition of the Renminbi (RMB) to the IMF’s SDR basket on October 1, 2016 marks an important milestone in China’s reform and opening up which began nearly four decades ago. For China, it symbolizes recognition by the international community of the progress China has made in its economic transition, from a poor closed economy to an emerging market economy deeply integrated with the world economy. For the IMF and the global financial system, it is the first time in history that a currency is being added to the SDR basket, and that the currency of an emerging market economy is joining the currencies of advanced countries as an international reserve currency. At the same time, some observers have criticized the IMF’s decision to add the RMB to the SDR basket. Some have argued that the decision was “political,” taken to facilitate China’s rise as an economic power, and that China has not delivered sufficiently on reforms, particularly regarding exchange rate management and capital account liberalization. This paper examines these issues.
This paper is organized as follows. Section I examines how the RMB measures against the criteria set by the IMF for including a currency in the SDR basket. Section II considers the implications of RMB in the SDR basket for China and the international financial system. Section III offers some concluding observations.
I. HOW DOES THE RMB MEASURE AGAINST CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE SDR BASKET?
The IMF created the SDR in 1969 as a supplementary international reserve asset. At the time, under the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, countries needed official reserves to maintain the fixity of their exchange rates. The supply of official reserves, namely gold and the U.S. dollar, was insufficient to support the expanding global trade and financial transactions; thus, the SDR was created to provide additional liquidity to the global financial system. However, the Bretton Woods system collapsed shortly thereafter, and by 1973 major currencies moved to a system of floating exchange rates. This, together with the development of international capital markets, diminished the need for the SDR as an international reserve asset. As of March 2016, $285 billion SDRs had been created, accounting for less than 3 percent of global official reserves.
The IMF’s current criteria for including a currency in the SDR basket are twofold: the export criterion and the freely useable criterion:1 The export criterion is a long-‐standing element of the selection criteria for the SDR basket and aims to ensure that currencies included in the SDR basket play an important role in international trade. The freely usable criterion was added in 2000 to recognize the increasing importance of capital flows and to ensure that the currencies in the SDR basket play an important role in the global financial system.
There is no debate about the RMB meeting the export criterion. As the world’s third largest exporter, the RMB has met the export criterion for inclusion in the SDR basket since 2010 (Table 1).
The contentious question centers around the freely usable criterion. Some observers have argued that as the RMB exchange rate regime remains managed and as China continues to maintain some restrictions on capital account transactions, the RMB cannot be considered freely usable. However, the concept of freely usable is defined by the IMF’s Articles of Agreement. The IMF defines freely usable to be a currency that is (i) widely used to make payments for international transactions and (ii) widely traded in the principal exchange markets.2 This definition aims to ensure that currencies in the SDR basket can be easily used directly or indirectly to meet a country’s balance of payments needs.
According to the IMF, the concept of freely usable is different from whether a currency is freely floating or free of capital account restrictions (i.e., fully convertible). The IMF points out that a currency can be freely usable even if it has some capital account restrictions, and that in the past, currencies such as the pound sterling and Japanese yen were judged to be freely usable even when some capital account restrictions were in place. Conversely, a freely floating convertible currency might not be widely used or widely traded.
To judge whether a currency is freely usable, the IMF relies on several quantitative indicators. For assessing wide use, the indicators include: the shares of currencies in reserve holdings, and the currency denomination of international debt securities and international banking liabilities. For wide trading, the indicators include the volume (turnover) of transaction in foreign exchange. In the 2015 Review of SDR valuation, more indicators were added, including official holdings of foreign currency assets, the issuance of international debt securities, cross-‐border payments, and trade finance.
Data for the various indicators show that the RMB is not as widely used as the other SDR currencies (US dollar, euro, pound sterling, and Japanese yen), although the use of the RMB has risen impressively (Tables 2-‐8). In 2014, the RMB ranked 7th among the currencies held in countries’ official foreign currency reserves, behind the Canadian and Australian dollars. The RMB ranked 9th in the currency denomination of international debt securities outstanding, but its ranking in international banking liabilities was higher, at 5th place; the RMB’s ranking in the currency denomination of new issuance of international debt securities was also higher at 6th place.
Nevertheless, what is remarkable is the rapid ascent of the RMB across the widely used indicators. While the shares of the other non-‐SDR currencies have either remained largely unchanged or dropped, the international use of the RMB has increased quickly in just the past few years. SWIFT reports that the RMB is the 5th most widely currency for cross border payments compared with 20th in 2012.3 Similarly, the use of the RMB in trade finance has risen significantly, overtaking the Japanese yen and the pound sterling. The RMB accounted for 1.1 percent of official foreign currency assets in 2014, up from 0.7 percent a year ago. In the first half of 2015, 1 percent of international debt securities issued were denominated in RMB, compared with practically none 5 years ago.
The RMB stills account for a small share of global foreign exchange trading, with the present SDR currencies continuing their domination (Table 9). Nevertheless, the RMB has made significant strides: by 2013 the RMB accounted for 1.1 percent of global foreign exchange market turnover up from 0.3 percent in 2010. According to the IMF, more recent data for early 2015 indicate that the RMB ranks 8th in foreign exchange trading in major regional markets, particularly in the Asian markets. In Hong Kong and Singapore, RMB trading accounted for 12.1 percent and 6.7 percent of daily market turnover in April 2015.
II. IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCLUSION OF THE RMB IN THE SDR BASKET
The IMF’s decision to add the RMB in the SDR basket necessarily involves judgment. This is because there no specific set of indicators with quantitative benchmarks that must be met for inclusion. Rather, the IMF has to examine the various indicators and make an assessment guided by the definition of “freely usable” under its Articles of Agreement. Observers might consider the judgmental aspect to be “political.” However, the IMF must assure itself that the inclusion of the RMB would not adversely affect its own financial operations. For example, member countries borrowing from the Fund must be able to use the RMB easily and freely to meet their balance of payments need. Accordingly, the IMF’s decision to include the RMB in the SDR basket needs to take into account not only the quantitative indicators but also a qualitative assessment of macro and financial policies that are relevant to making the RMB freely usable.
Several key considerations persuaded the IMF to decide in the affirmative. First, the “freely usable” indicators show a rapid increase in the use and trading of the RMB. Second, the Chinese authorities took additional steps to promote the international use of the RMB, including granting full access to the onshore fixed-‐income and foreign exchange markets for official reserve managers. This allowed reserve managers of official institutions, such as central banks, international financial institutions, and sovereign wealth funds, to buy a widening array of RMB denominated assets to manage their reserves and hedge risks. China has also set up swap arrangements with 34 central banks around the world. Third, the Chinese authorities pushed ahead with broader macro policy reforms, notability the full liberalization of domestic interest rates, implementing a more flexible exchange rate regime, and further improving the transparency of data, including data on the currency composition of reserves and banking liabilities. When the new SDR basket becomes effective on October 1, 2016, the RMB will have a weight of 10.92 percent, ahead of the Japanese yen and the British pound, based on a new formula for calculating weights for the SDR basket.
As was the case when China joined the WTO in 2001, the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR basket will catalyze further reforms in China. This has already been evident in the major reforms China implemented to qualify the RMB for inclusion. China has been experiencing an economic slowdown in recent years associated with its efforts to transition to a more domestic demand and services based economy. Since the summer of 2014, China has encountered episodes of financial market volatility and surges in capital outflows as well as an emerging corporate debt overhang. The fact that the Chinese authorities have nevertheless continued to advance with financial sector reforms under challenging conditions, especially the exchange rate regime reform in August 2015 and the capital account liberalization measures, testifies to the commitment of the Chinese authorities to make the RMB freely usable.
Since the IMF’s decision to add the RMB to the SDR basket last November, China has further advanced with capital account liberalization. Most notably, in February 2016, the Chinese authorities opened the China Interbank Bond Market to foreign investors, such as foreign banks and pension funds. In August 2016, the Chinese authorities announced the Shenzhen-‐Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme that expands the list of mainland-‐listed companies in which overseas investors can trade; it also widens the range of Hong Kong-‐listed stocks mainland investors can trade. In August 2016, the World Bank became the first institution to issue SDR-‐ denominated bonds in China.
Looking to the future, China’s financial sector reforms remain an unfinished journey. Inclusion of the RMB in the SDR basket marks a milestone, but not the destination. Financial market reforms are critical for a better allocation of resources in China’s ongoing economic transition. Much remains to be done to develop a robust financial system, with efficient, strong, and well-‐supervised and regulated banking system and capital markets. Further work remains to move the exchange rate regime to a fully flexible and market determined one, supported by a fully market-‐based monetary policy framework. In this regard, it is notable that the IMF has declared the exchange rate of the RBM to be in line with economic fundamentals at the conclusion of its most recent consultation with China in July 2016. Further capital account liberalization must be managed carefully and well sequenced with reforms in the financial system and the exchange rate system to minimize macroeconomic and financial stability risks.
With China’s increasing integration with the rest of the world, what happens in China has important spillover effects on the global economy. China’s economic growth and recent slowdown have affected many countries’ growth, exports, and commodity prices. China’s impact is not only through trade but also through financial linkages. A recent IMF study show that the correlation of China’s stock market with Asian stock markets is now 0.3, on par with that of Japan and only somewhat less than the 0.4 correlation of the U.S. (Arslanalp, 2016). Thus, success with China’s financial sector reforms and economic transition more generally, partly catalyzed by RMB’s inclusion in the SDR basket, will contribute to a more stable and resilient world economy.
For the global economy, the addition of RMB as a reserve currency provides an additional source of liquidity and facilitates a diversification of risks in the global financial system. RMB inclusion also strengthens the attractiveness of the SDR as an international reserve asset by diversifying its basket and makes the SDR more representative of the actual currency use and trading in the international financial system.
III. CONCLUDING OBERVATIONS
October 1, 2016 marks an important occasion when the RMB will be added to the SDR basket. The date also marks the 67th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The journey that China’s economy has travelled during the 67 years is remarkable. With the implementation of the reforms and opening up beginning in 1978, China has transformed from a poor and closed economy to a vibrant emerging market economy and its currency is now recognized as an international reserve currency.
The IMF’s decision to include the RMB in the SDR basket is a judgmental one. It took into account objective indicators of the rapid increase in the use and trading of the RMB in international markets as well as policy reforms undertaken by the Chinese authorities to enhance the RMB’s free usability. The membership of the IMF, comprising 189 countries, was satisfied that the RMB is widely used and traded, even though it is still subject to some capital account restrictions, and that the RMB will be freely usable by member countries to meet their balance of payments needs.
The inclusion of the RMB in the SDR basket is beneficial for both China and global economy. For China, as was the case with China joining the WTO, RMB in the SDR basket it is likely to spur further reforms necessary for China to transition to a fully market based economy. The success of China’s transition will be beneficial to the global economy as well, given China’s close linkages with the rest of the world. The SDR, with RMB in the basket, will also become a more attractive international reserve asset and more representative of changes in the global economy.
REFERENCES
IMF, 2016, People’s Republic of China: 2016 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report No. 16/270. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16270.pdf
IMF, 2015, Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR, IMF Policy Paper, November. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/111315.pdf
Arslanalp, Serkan et. al., 2016, “China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets,” IMF Working Paper, WP/16/173. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16173.pdf
Prasad, Eswar, 2016, “China’s Efforts to Expand the International Use of the Renminbi,” Brookings, February 4. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-‐ content/uploads/2016/07/RMBReportFinal.pdf .
提高金融效率，降低金融成本，控制金融风险
夏乐：传统银行为什么看上虚拟货币
张超：从理论-现实-政治的角度旁观联储加息进程
IMI特约研究员王卫China Daily刊文：世界财富500强中的中国私营企业（附英文原文）
入群方法：加群主为微信好友（微信号：imi605）,添加时备注个人姓名（实名认证）、单位、职务等信息，经群主审核后，即可被拉进群。
欢迎读者朋友多多留言与我们交流互动，推荐好文章可联系：邮箱imi@ruc.edu.cn；电话010-62516755
中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）成立于2009年12月20日，是专注于货币金融理论、政策与战略研究的非营利性学术研究机构和新型专业智库。
中国人民银行副行长潘功胜与诺贝尔经济学奖得主蒙代尔出任IMI顾问委员会主任，委员包括埃德蒙、陈云贤、汉克、李若谷、李扬、马德伦、任志刚、苏宁、王兆星、吴清、夏斌、亚辛·安瓦尔等12位国内外著名经济学家或政策领导人；中国人民银行副行长陈雨露出任学术委员会主任，委员会由47位来自国内外科研院所、政府部门或金融机构的著名专家学者组成。IMI所长、联席所长、执行所长分别为张杰、曹彤、贲圣林，向松祚、涂永红、宋科任副所长。
自2012年起，研究所开始每年定期发布《人民币国际化报告》，重点探讨人民币国际化进程中面临的重大理论与政策问题。报告还被译成英文、日文、韩文、俄文、阿拉伯文等版本并在北京、香港、纽约、法兰克福、伦敦、新加坡和阿拉木图等地发布，引起国内外理论与实务界的广泛关注。
迄今为止，研究所已形成“国际金融”、“宏观经济理论与政策”、“金融科技”、“财富管理”、“金融监管”等五个研究方向，并定期举办货币金融圆桌会议、大金融思想沙龙、燕山论坛、麦金农大讲坛、陶湘国际金融讲堂等具有重要学术影响力的高层次系列论坛或讲座。主要学术产品包括IMI大金融书系、《国际货币评论》（中文月刊&英文季刊）、《IMI研究动态》（周刊）、《国际货币金融每日综述》（日刊）等。国际货币网：www.imi.org.cn
微信号：IMI财经观察（点击识别下方二维码关注我们）