视点 | 熊园：金融危机在结构调整中不容忽视（英文）

自2016年下半年以来，防范金融风险成为各级会议频繁提到的重要话题，近日召开的金融工作会议也着重地强调了防范金融风险的重要性。IMI研究员熊园认为目前中国的金融风险主要来源于房地产泡沫、地方政府债、高的金融杠杆率以及互联网金融危机。首先，房地产泡沫已经成为中国面临的最大的“灰犀牛”，2016年底住房贷款占GDP的比重增加到45%，是十年前的3倍，针对这一现象，中国政府自去年10月份开始加强对房地产市场的调控；其次，地方政府债务规模迅速增长，成为威胁财政安全的第一大隐患，本次召开的金融工作会议强调将极力遏制地方政府债务的增长，并对一些不作为的地方政府进行惩处；第三，在今年3月份召开的两会上，各级监管部门强调将加强对金融杠杆的监管和调控；最后，互联网金融是一把双刃剑，一方面促进了金融市场的竞争，提高了金融服务的效率，优化了资金的配置，但另一方面，由于相关法律法规的缺失导致互联网金融野蛮式的增长，出现了信息泄露、P2P机构卷款出逃等乱象，互联网金融作为金融风险的新来源，在未来将面临着严格的监管。

以下为文章全文：

Since mid-2016, the importance of risk prevention has gained frequent mention at meetings at various levels in China. The recently concluded National Financial Work Conference, held only once every five years, clearly stated that the nation needs to guard against financial risks.

It's envisioned that risk prevention will remain a key issue in China in the years to come and there won't be a regulatory shift until there are signs that the financial risks confronting the country have been fundamentally neutralized. Among the most-watched risks are housing bubbles, the local government debt problem, high financial leverage and woes concerning Internet finance. 

First, the risk of a property bubble is the biggest "gray rhino" facing China. Home prices have soared in recent years and people have used leverage to buy homes, even as mortgage rates went up, causing huge bubbles in the housing market. Statistics show that household debt as a percentage of GDP hit 45 percent at the end of 2016, 1.6 times the level five years earlier and three times the level 10 years earlier. The rapid rise of the ratio can be explained simply by the fact that growth in disposable income didn't keep up with higher home prices.

Fortunately the government has stepped up property curbs since last October and moved toward a fundamental mechanism of long-term regulation of the housing market that both suits the country and complies with market rules.

Second, the local government debt risk is seen as a sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the Chinese economy. In recent years, frequent violations of the borrowing and collateral rules by local governments have been uncovered and the scale of local government debt has surged. There is also a vast amount of hidden debt accumulated by local government financing vehicles, unregulated public-private projects and government investment funds.

Local government debt, as such, represents a huge threat to fiscal stability. The twice-a-decade financial meeting clearly said that the country will curb additions to government debt and hold officials responsible for life if they fail to do so. It was by far the harshest regulatory statement on the local government debt issue, and it also showed how serious the problem has become.

Third, financial leverage has increased. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China's overall debt-to-GDP ratio - as well as the debt held by households, non-financial companies, financial institutions and government departments as a portion of GDP - has been on an upward trajectory. In comparison, the US, Europe, Japan and other developed economies have largely undergone deleveraging.  

It's especially noteworthy that there have been several rounds of drastic swings in China's capital markets since the second half of 2015. In all these cases, the "culprit" is believed to have been the use of leverage such as margin lending and a form of equity leverage financing known as umbrella trusts.

Further, small and medium-sized Chinese banks have in recent years expanded their assets at an annualized rate exceeding 30 percent. In addition, the tendency of many in the asset management sector to keep capital in the financial system and out of the real economy is being facilitated by the use of leverage.

It's thus understandable that after the annual two sessions earlier this year, many government bodies including the central bank, the regulatory agencies that oversee the banking, securities and insurance sectors, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce have all moved to toughen oversight, primarily over financial leverage.  

Fourth, Internet finance is a double-edged sword when it comes to risk. It boosts competition in the financial markets, increases the efficiency of capital allocation, reduces the cost of financial services and explores the boundaries of financial services. The Internet finance sector has gained tremendous popularity in China since 2013.

However, there is still a large void in the country's legal, regulatory and policy framework that has yet to put Internet finance under effective scrutiny. The sector remains in a stage of untamed growth, with varied problems such as illegal online fundraising, technological failures, information leaks, online fraud and peer-to-peer lending firms whose bosses abscond with investors' money. 

Given that Internet finance has grown to be a new source of risk facing China, it is expected that the industry will experience some hard times in years to come.

A vibrant financial sector can invigorate the economy and a stable one can steady it. China is undergoing a critical economic restructuring and the importance of preventing financial risks and ensuring financial stability can't be overemphasized. Regulators and policymakers must seek a balance between financial regulation and development and also between financial reform and innovation. Risk prevention and regulatory tightening are more than just words on paper; they call for craftsmanship, professionalism and the art of wisdom.  

编辑  杨雅鑫 邵昊敏

来源  环球时报

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中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）成立于2009年12月20日，是专注于货币金融理论、政策与战略研究的非营利性学术研究机构和新型专业智库。研究所聘请了来自国内外科研院所、政府部门或金融机构的80余位著名专家学者担任顾问委员、学术委员和国际委员，70余位中青年专家担任研究员。

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