海外之声 | 黄金击败未得到检验的加密货币——区块链可促进数字黄金资产的发展

观点速递

本文作者是世界黄金协会的首席策略师约翰·雷德，原文率先刊发于国际货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）出版的《四月公报》（The April Bulletin）中。OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

近几年比特币价值迅速增长，增长倍数大大超过黄金，于是有人认为加密货币能够取代黄金。然而作者提出，黄金的供需动态是独一无二的，它仍是主流金融资产，比特币这类数字资产是不能替代黄金的，它们还未在经济周期中接受检验。区块链技术的创新，为黄金和数字资产之间建立起桥梁，促进数字黄金资产的发展。

中文译文如下：

黄金击败未得到检验的加密货币

——区块链可促进数字黄金资产的发展

约翰·雷德 写于伦敦

翻译：黄朝政

审校：熊若洁

2018年5月1日

2017年，金价上涨13%，这是相当高的增长。同一时期内，比特币的价值增长了13倍，这也导致一些人声称加密货币可取代黄金作为一个资产类别。

然而，尽管这类数字资产可能发展成为金融体系的既定部分，但并不能替代黄金，因为黄金是一种可靠的投资工具。

黄金是一种流动性极强的资产，并且可在既有监管框架下交易。黄金的供需动态是独一无二的。这些特征巩固了黄金作为主流金融资产的地位。

在过去30多年里，黄金的年均增值达到10%，波动性相对较小。比特币则明显不同。去年12月，比特币价格飙升至每单位近2万美元，但在2017年之前从未超过1000美元，今年又已回落至1万美元左右。这样的波动性可能会限制比特币被用作交易代币，并且这很难是主流货币的特征，更不用说作为价值储藏了。

据称加密货币市场价值已超过8000亿美元。但目前还没有明确的双向市场，并且据称其销售成本高且耗时，交易量低。比特币平均每天交易量为20亿美元。黄金市场每天交易量约为2500亿美元。

黄金作为资产有七千年的历史，并且长期以来都是一种货币，中央银行以及机构和散户投资者都持有黄金。作为一种有形资产，黄金具有多种技术用途，包括比特币“挖矿”所用的计算机芯片。

加密货币旨在被用作电子支付系统中的代币，但有限的支出机会阻碍了其广泛使用。此外，真正的加密货币交易通常会很快被转换为法定货币。

比特币数量年均增长率约4%，根据其设计，将在2140年左右达到零增长。这种逐渐减缓的增长速度和有限的数量是很有吸引力的特征，但比特币并不是一个单独的区块链应用。鉴于有许多加密货币替代品，新的更好的区块链货币应用可能被视为相当于增加了供应，与法定货币类似。

以黄金结算的交易在许多市场上得到了广泛的授权和监管，而大多数国家尚未批准加密货币，即便他们并未完全禁止加密货币。比特币和其它加密货币可能会遭受突然的限制，特别在政府担心其对经济政策的影响时。比如，韩国在今年一月份宣布加强监管措施，而在英国投资者在兑换加密货币时面临障碍。

一些评论人士表示，黄金的价格和需求正在以加密货币为代价遭受损失。然而，没有可量化的证据表明这是事实，推动2017年金价上涨的因素与去年相比几乎没有变化，但加密货币呈现出一些积极的迹象。

区块链是为加密货币奠定基础的分布式账本技术，是真正的创新。

黄金市场上的多个参与方正在探索区块链如何将黄金转化为“数字资产”，并追踪整个供应链中的起源，并将效率引入交易后的结算流程中。这些应用通常建立在私人区块链上，而不是使用比特币或其它“公共区块链”。

与黄金不同，加密货币还未在经济周期中接受检验。这个市场还很年轻，流动性稀缺。若股市更加动荡，价格、收益和情绪会有何反应，这还没有定论。然而，无论时好时坏，对黄金的需求一直都在。

英文原文如下：

Gold beats untested cryptocurrencies

Blockchain may facilitate digital gold assets

John Reade in London

 1 May 2018

In 2017 the price of gold rose 13%, a creditable performance. In the same period, bitcoin delivered a 13-fold increase in value, prompting some to claim that cryptocurrencies could replace gold as an asset class.

However, though these digital assets may develop into an established part of the financial system, they are no replacement for gold, a dependable investment tool.

Gold is a highly liquid asset, and trades in an established regulatory framework. Its supply and demand dynamics are unique. These characteristics underpin gold's status as a mainstream financial asset.

Gold has appreciated by an average of 10% per year for more than 30 years, with relatively little volatility. Bitcoin is markedly different. Last December it soared to almost $20,000 per unit, though it never exceeded $1,000 before 2017, and has fallen back to around $10,000 this year. Such volatility potentially limits bitcoin's use as a transaction token and is hardly characteristic of a mainstream currency, let alone a store of value.

The cryptocurrency market is said to be worth more than $800bn. But there is no clear two-way market, sales are said to be costly and time-consuming, and trading volumes are low. Bitcoin trades $2bn, on average, each day. The gold market trades roughly $250bn per day.

With a 7,000-year history as an asset and a long-standing role as money, gold is owned by central banks as well as institutional and retail investors. As a tangible asset, gold has varied technical applications, including in the computer chips that 'mine' bitcoin.

Cryptocurrencies are designed to be used as tokens in electronic payment systems, but limited spending opportunities hamper their widespread use. Furthermore, genuine cryptocurrency transactions are usually quickly converted into fiat currencies.

The volume of bitcoins increases by around 4% per year and is engineered to decline to zero growth around the year 2140. This diminishing growth rate and finite quantity are attractive attributes, but bitcoin is not alone as a blockchain application. Given the many cryptocurrency alternatives, new and better blockchain-based coin applications may be seen as equivalent to increasing supply, not unlike fiat currency.

Trade in gold is widely authorised and regulated in many markets, while most countries have yet to approve cryptocurrencies, even if they have stopped short of banning them outright. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be subject to sudden restrictions, particularly if governments become concerned about their impact on economic policy. South Korea, for instance, in January announced increased regulatory measures, while in the UK investors face hurdles to convert cryptocurrencies.

Some commentators claim that gold prices and demand are suffering at the expense of cryptocurrencies. However, there is no quantifiable evidence to suggest this is true, and the factors that propelled the gold price in 2017 appeared little changed from the previous year's, however there are some positives aspects to cryptocurrencies.

Blockchain, the distributed ledger technology that underpins cryptocurrencies, is genuinely innovative.

Various players in the gold market are exploring how blockchain might transform gold into a 'digital asset', tracking provenance across the supply chain and introducing efficiencies into post-trade settlement processes. Such applications are typically built on private blockchains rather than using bitcoin or other 'public blockchains'.

Unlike gold, cryptocurrencies are yet to be tested across economic cycles. The market is young and liquidity is scarce. How prices, returns and sentiment may respond if stock markets become more volatile is open to debate. Gold, however, sees demand in good times and in bad.

内容整理 罗梦宇

图文编辑 罗梦宇

审校  田雯

监制  朱霜霜

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